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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: CEFS - CryptopiaFeeShares - Do the math on: January 21, 2018, 10:06:13 PM
No what I'm saying is it looks like a sell to me and I wouldn't invest in CEFS.  The mention of LTC was only to illustrate one of the many assets that has greater mid/long term potential over CEFS.  

You mention that this token could triple in value as January 31st approaches because this is the date that Cryptopia will take 4.5% of its gross fees collected from the previous month, for each of the base markets, and distribute that portion of the fees among all CEFS holders.  If this is the case then it would be logical to assume at after Cryoptopia releases the funds to token holders there would be a massive sell off as investors that purchased only to hold until the end of the month to receive the payout sell their shares.  If this happens then there is a possibility the token could go down at least to the buy order resistance point which is currently at 0.3 BTC.  

I also don't think the investment return will appear on the last day of the month, and could be up to several days later, because you can't calculate total received fees for the last day of the month until the days actually over.  

There is also the question of what currency the investment return will be distributed in. Distribution in the New Zealand dollar would likely be perceived negatively by investors and would make conversion to your native currency more difficult and costly.  

There is no available information to support your statement that "it may replace LTC as a trade reference" and cannot be a base exchange because of the share issue limit.  I'm not sure how Cryptopia could communicate about the future price of the asset, but they could communicate additional information regarding CEFS terms, exchange performance, and news or a timeline on when key services will be resumed.  The fact that the only information out of Cryptopia on number of traders registered with the exchange was made only Jan 6th when new users were at an all time high is a red flag. 

I am not exaggerating when I say this, and if I'm wrong someone please correct me, but the only available information regarding this token is literally four sentences on the Cryptopia's news page.  That is a scary little amount of information.  
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: CEFS - CryptopiaFeeShares - Do the math on: January 20, 2018, 05:51:55 PM
This token looks like a sell right now.  

According to Coin Market Cap at the time of this writing, the 24-hour volume of the Cryptopia exchange is about 65 million USD, up from yesterdays 55 million USD, which is almost 1/4 of the quoted daily exchange volume in the original post in this thread.  

The surge in new users to the Cryptopia exchange was largely due to a number of major exchanges not accepting new members or not allowing new members to deposit funds.  For example, Bittrex which has LTC trading and lists many smaller market cap coins has been closed to new members since 15 December 2017 and is still closed to new members.  As these exchanges fix their issues and open to new users the demand for Cryptopia services will be reduced and there may be an exudes of users to other exchanges at least until LTC trading opens.  Given that there has been no announcement by Cryptopia as to when LTC trading will open it is unlikely that it will return in the short term and/or before other exchanges open to new users.  

While Cryptopia does have a large number of listings, they do not support trade in a number of popular and high market cap assets such as XRP and a number of ERC20 assets such as EOS, IOTA, BAT, exc. adding to a negative outlook.  This is especially true given that Coinbase Custody has publicly announced intentions to add ERC20 tokens (see their Features page) which may be seen as an early indicator of adoption of these assets by GDAX and Coinbase.  

There is a very limited amount of information on the number of Cryptopia users and the only information appears to be contained in the "Letter from the Founders" available on the Cryptopia news page which provides extremely bullish figures that most likely do not accurately reflect the current and future demand reality.  

Cryptopia has not provided any information regarding the terms of CEFS such as whether the 4.5 gross earnings figure may change which could have a significant negative impact on the token price.  

Trade volume of CEFS is also very low and appears to have shallow demand which could result in a sharp drop in price in the event of even a small sell off.  

Given the undervalue of many coins and tokens right now, investment in CEFS would not be recommended.  LTC for example may be seen as a better investment given the coin is currently trading at around the equivalent of 210 USD (down from 30 day high of 307 USD) with market cap and trade volume artificially depressed due to major exchanges that allow trade in LTC closed to new users and exchanges such as Cryptopia which have closed LTC trading due to volume.

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