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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2020, 03:59:24 AM


... next we wait to see what happens now that bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is less than gold ... and every other money on the planet.

I think we just reached parity levels with gold inflation. Next halving would be half of gold.

Gold is around 3.5k tons per year / 199k supply (197.5 end of year 2019) = 1.76%.
Btc is 328.5k per year / 18.37mn supply = 1.78%


Total above ground gold holdings is not a well-known figure. Some of the Central Bank gold is bogus paper backed by "Deep Storage Gold" receipts, which could be as tenuous as forward sales from miners of gold reserves still in the ground. Private gold stashes are routinely under-reported (or simple lies) to avoid taxes and other unwanted criminal attention. Huge stashes have been lost (and found), 'disappeared' and 'reappeared' in wars, pirate raids etc over the centuries. The agreed upon figure in economics, markets, monetary studies literature going back decades is gold's inflation rate over long terms is very stable around 2.25-2.5%

Yeah I know how it goes. I just used "official" estimates from https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks

However there is a huge red warning sign in the bold part:

Total above-ground stocks (end-2019): 197,576 tonnes
Jewellery: 92,947 tonnes, 47.0%
Private investment: 42,619 tonnes, 21.6%
Official Holdings: 33,919 tonnes, 17.2%
Other: 28,090 tonnes, 14.2%
Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes

Yet to be mined gold is in the millions of tonnes not just 54k (or ~15 years)... and it will become easier to mine it once AI programmed robotics are sent to mine it in places that humans can not operate efficiently. Whether it's underwater, deep in the earth, near volcanoes, or in freezing and hot places.

And that's only the mechanics of extracting it. AI will also assist heavily in detecting patterns of where gold actually is. These two reasons can lead to a very large supply boom in like 10-20 years.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 12, 2020, 02:27:20 AM


... next we wait to see what happens now that bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is less than gold ... and every other money on the planet.

I think we just reached parity levels with gold inflation. Next halving would be half of gold.

Gold is around 3.5k tons per year / 199k supply (197.5 end of year 2019) = 1.76%.
Btc is 328.5k per year / 18.37mn supply = 1.78%

Compared to fiat that is increasing the monetary base frantically, we are sitting pretty good Grin

Happy halving day everyone.


3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2020, 08:49:26 PM
It has an effect, but not immediately. Thatís what the past is telling me.

I would consider ~10mn/day from the get go being immediate enough. But that's just me Tongue

Past halvings were not as affected due to much lower btc prices. A days worth of mining supply was worth peanuts.

2016 was like 1800 btc down x 650 = just 1mn USD per day. The effect is tenfold right now.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2020, 08:40:16 PM
But I keep reasoning with a dip after the Halving. Because non-event after the fact (in the immediate term), just like precious halvings.

But it does have an immediate effect after the halving: 900 less bitcoins per day or ~9mn USD.

Over a month it's 270mn USD, and over a year it's 3.3 bn usd less required to keep price constant at current levels.



5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2020, 04:25:21 PM

... looks like the Swedish experiment in "herd immunity" is working out as well as could be expected. Socialists really are the dumbest fucks.

https://wuflu.live/sweden/

Bodies on ice in Stockhom ice-rink

It's not very black and white... I mean Belgium (similar population) has 3000+ dead and is has extensive measures for 3-4 weeks compared to Sweden's 850 dead... meanwhile Belarus (similar population to Belgium and Sweden) has no measures in place, they haven't even stopped their sport activities and crowd gatherings and yet they have only 19 dead Huh
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 21, 2020, 07:09:41 AM
Without considering language, I was also thinking about Greece (including Corfu), some Mediterranean islands (Crete, etc.), maybe Canary islands.
Maybe I should learn Spanish or Portuguese, finally.

Suggestions?

Greece has very good climate. Just note that in Crete it's pretty hot in the summer and Corfu is quite rainy in non-summer months.

Central and northern Greece is better for dealing with heat but of course it'll be a bit colder in the winter.

Athens is becoming a shithole though, due to extreme migrant inflow from islamic countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan... foreigners are easy prey to criminal islamic gangs.


7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2020, 01:21:31 PM
Confirmed: Craig Wright doesnít have keys to $8 billion of Bitcoin
Craig Wrightís lawyer says he didnít receive the private keys to $8 billion worth of Bitcoin and provides an update on the Dave Kleiman court case.


https://decrypt.co/16998/confirmed-craig-wright-doesnt-have-keys-to-8-billion-of-bitcoin

tl;dr: Craig is royally fucked in about 90 days.

"However, Wright still expects that he will receive the keys at a later date."

Translation: Wright expects to get more pumping profits (BSV) in another pumping round  Grin
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2020, 08:13:35 AM
Quote
The document produced by Craig is simply a list of 16,404 addresses. Craig, however, did not provide any information on the bounded courier, the company he/she worked for, when he/she came, or the message delivered.
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.377.0.pdf

 Cheesy now he's just trolling the court! Lets see them addresses!

Shortly after Judge Reinhart issued this Order, on September 11, 2019, the parties reached
an agreement in principle to settle the case. Discovery was abated for nearly two months as the
parties worked together to document their agreement. Then, on October 30, and without warning,
Plaintiffs were informed Craig could no longer finance the settlement
, and that he was terminating
the settlement efforts.



...no shit Grin
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2020, 04:31:59 AM
Quote
I doubt that the 1/2 the court gave these 'supposed' the Klieman family estate will act in a irresponsible manner.

Courts don't have the technical know-how to determine crypto fraud, private keys, stuff like that. Heck, the Japanese court "resolved" the mtgox case by giving a low USD-equivalent on bitcoins that had multiplied their USD-value several times. In the meantime they left the rest of the BTC to the custody of third parties that were using these BTCs to manipulate BTC price... I think it was Kraken who said that the trustee was destroying the order book instead of opting for auctions (as suggested by Kraken).

In any case, the courts asked for something from CW and he has to deliver "something". I have no doubt he will deliver "something" because he needs to do it or else face possible sanctions, from what I read. Heck, he might have made enough money in the recent rumor-based SV pump that he can actually settle the case outside of the courtroom without losing face from a possible conviction Tongue
10  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Blockstream's Bitcoin Satelite WWW w/ OuterNet USB Reciever. on: November 29, 2019, 09:04:13 PM
Let's say one wants to sync the blockchain from scratch. What kind of download speeds are we talking about?
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 05:52:30 PM
Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

And XRP is included without even being a crypto... Tongue
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2019, 08:50:25 PM
Did we just lose 1k in 5 minutes ?
More Shocked

Is this the typical "someone sold a lot because it went up"? Or is this the typical "someone sold a lot to trigger stop-losses and buy it back later"? Or is this going to trigger my (wife's) Q2 prediction of $7800?

Maybe it's a "someone doesn't like others frontrunning his buys and fucks them up to blow their longs and then buy cheaperCool
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2019, 05:56:42 PM

So how did he post from the prison saying "I'm not Dorian Nakamoto"?  Tongue
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2019, 04:03:43 PM
Vegeta is proud Grin
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2019, 03:57:45 PM
Prepare the 9k memes Tongue
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2019, 10:16:57 AM
Is there any website that tracks bitcoin ATH in various currencies?
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2019, 01:11:11 PM
It seems the rally is petering out. Bitcoin never fails to surprise but momentum for this run is diminishing.

I think those behind the "big moves" don't want to be very predictable, since they want to avoid front-running purchases by others. If you can predict the moves of the market you can front-run it with leverage and gain big. But that would elevate the big buyers average cost per btc and it's obviously something they do not want. I wouldn't be surprised if the large players cause spikes down/up to liquidate shorts and longs that try to get ahead of the trends.

I wouldn't be surprised either at transferring altcoin money to bitcoin through trend-creations which act as a hook for potential altcoin buyers/traders, which makes people buy altcoins during some rising trends and then dumping on them to get their bitcoins. This mechanism would be something like a secondary source for bitcoins that allows more bitcoins to be acquired without making the btc/usd go through the roof - since bitcoins are taken from btc/altcoin pairs. The side effect is obviously the ascent of bitcoin dominance.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2019, 05:11:56 PM
But, what do those numbers you posted (2-2-10-4) mean? Just curious...

Play Railroad Tycoon, you'll learn. Cheesy



Great Series of games BTW.


Damn I miss that game. Goes great with a bag of weed (as do most things).

One of my favorite aspects was trying to bankrupt the other tycoons by manipulating their stock prices.

If you had enough capital to buy and crash the price of a competitor's stock, you could leave them forever bankrupt, unable to dig themselves out of massive debt. Fun!

The economic module of the game was fantastic. I usually played only as investor manipulating mine and all other stocks, trying to bankrupt the other rich guys, while having quit as a manager of the company and letting the game automanage it... Cool
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2019, 08:13:58 PM

I read the above and still don't get the problem. What type of address was needed before sending to Bech32 and why was it unspendable? And how can it be unspendable if it is sent back to the company's wallet and thus "proves" it's an inside job?


My understanding is that if you send coins from address starting with '1' (legacy) to bech 32 address (starting with 'bc1'), then you might have difficulty spending the coins, although I am not 100% sure because Coinomi claims that in their wallet you can "upgrade" legacy account to bech32.
In any case, if you send from '1 to '3' first, then to 'bc1', it should be OK.
Read here:

https://coinomi.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/29000009746-what-are-default-compatibility-and-legacy-addresses-all-about-segwit-

Re sending back at Binance-it is a puzzle and if true (I did not check), then the whole thing is definitely their own error.
That guy at binance...I would not listen to one word outta his mouth one way or another any more.

The way I understand it, the problem isn't with the address, but with the wallet software. Not all wallets deal bith 'bc1' (bech32) addresses yet. Bech32 is supposed to be the new universal format after the segwit fork. Legacy (B2SH) non-segwit addresses begin with '1'. Legacy (B2SH) multi-sig addresses begin with '3'.

'1' addresses can only receive funds in non-segwit (old-style) transactions. '3' and 'bc1' can receive funds in segwit transactions too.

Hmm.. so if the above applies then the software must be able to pick the right transaction style. If it doesn't then it's broken software so to speak.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2019, 01:47:34 PM
Stupid article, can't they write why the coins can't be spent?

edit: I found the reason somewhere else.

Quote
....
So when you're sending Bitcoin to a Bech32 address, you need to make sure you're sending it from a type of address type that knows how to pack the information correctly. Otherwise it arrives in the Bech32 address without the information needed to be transferred again.
....

I read the above and still don't get the problem. What type of address was needed before sending to Bech32 and why was it unspendable? And how can it be unspendable if it is sent back to the company's wallet and thus "proves" it's an inside job?
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