Thats what I think is currently most likely. Once LTC shows SegWit advantages in terms of price rise, miners will finaly realize the price rise of 2k or 3k Bitcoins due to ever increasing adoption will easily outprofit their losses due to lower transaction fees. In the end they will make more money this way and thus it will make no sense economically for them not to agree to SegWit adoption. Bitcoin will never get scaling. The market will digest this, Bitcoin will stumble and Litecoin will rocket up. I find your argument very interesting and will definitely keep an eye on LTC. However my 3+ years experience tells me that whenever BTC goes up 1%, Alts losing like 10% or more. Moreover, i dont see BTC rangebound yet. Sure, without SegWit it will be an issue in the future, say within a year or two with price at double or triple rates and triple adoption and no SegWit. But for now, transaction fees are still affordable and the long term trend & adoption has more than enough traction to go to 2k, 3k or even 5k before the scaling issue becomes so pressing that it will stop price from rising. However I will definitely keep an eye on your argumentation too. But keep in mind, just as you said, LTC has no reason to exist apart from SegWit. If Bitcoin becomes Segwit, LTC is the useless and outdated Nr.2 that it was before. btw: 0.0075, LTC is not in your channel anymore. I think the chances for a rise would be good - but only as long as BTC stays really flat or drops AND the SegWit adoption rate is rising. Already 2 IFs. |
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meanwhile in Bitcoin land.. BU Support weakens, SegWit stronger (34/30) https://coin.dance/blocksBottom line is Bitcoin won't get scaling. Litecoin is poised to get scaling. maybe, but I wouldnt bet my house on that. SegWit approval on LTC is down to 62%. What a show. miners must laughing their asses of. http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php |
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And you think a billion dollar mining industry will let the core devs destroy their position?
BU will be forced upon us no matter what the economy or users want. good news, even contraindicator duckf*ck confirms! Long on BTC with SegWit! Look at this dudes history, follow the opposite of his predictions and you are right in 100 of 100 cases. |
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dude thanks for elaborating all this. I researched a lot about those topics too for years now, but your summary is pretty plausible.
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That cost me ~$250. Fuck.
Lesson learned. Don't waste time talking to Redditards. I know this board for 3+ years now. Everybody is screaming doom&gloom when it goes down and moon when it goes up. Trade always only according to the hard facts and ignore all the chattering is the first I learned. Cut your losses early the 2nd. Apologies for the noise. I decided to reverse this trade. I see that LTC has a wedge pattern that is rapidly closing so it should breakout to the upside. Also on study of the ETH chart, I don't like the current pattern. Its very difficult to determine at what level the firm support is for ETH. I found your posts have high amount of original research and critical thinking. Thank you for posting and please keep us updated. There are not so many quality posts with valuable background infos like yours here. |
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what did I miss out? Price rise because of SegWit or why?
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seems like I (long time tier 3 member) have difficulties opening a margin position today. It doesnt matter what I enter it opens only tiny positions. Is Kraken running out of margin capital or whats the reason for this? I used to be very satisfied with Krakens service so far.
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if i wasn't 100% sure before that there will be NO FORK, i am 100% sure now.
i just read this myself on the wall observer topic so i am going to share it here also.  Come on! He just says there will be no fork without any reason. He doesn't point out why. He does not support SegWit. He does not say he won't switch to BU. And his opinion on Core Devs you see a few lines below: https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/844726167575785472 |
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nope. its just an expected temporary retrace in a downward trend.  |
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just recently! now after what 8 months because ETH is returning to main trend with new projects. But directly after the split and for half a year you were in reds with like 50% or less of original value.
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if you can't wait, I can sell you some for 2k right now  |
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How low will it go? I expect to see 800 soon My best guess: low 800s then the next dead cat bounce up and lower again .. until the scaling issue is solved. Then we can shoot back up |
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blocks mined today. move your mouse over the yellow marks.
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today: 41. 7 % BU Blocks vs. 23.6 % SW https://coin.dance/blocksAs soon as we cross 51% BU Blocks a HF is very likely. Do you realise that once 51% of blocks are signalling Unlimited (according to Coindance today it is 33.3%) then the very first block mined by an Unlimited miner who cares to create a block of any size above 1 MB, will create a fork. BU miners will be able to follow that fork. That fork will be invalid for Core miners.
The reasoning from some BU community members is that everyone will be sensible enough to wait until something like 75% of blocks support BU, before a miner creates such a block. I ask anyone following the whole scaling debate from both sides, are coordination and cooperation the hallmarks of this situation?
The moment we reach 51% of blocks signalling BU, a whole new opportunity opens up for manipulation, for example for a miner to take a short position on Bitcoin and then mine +1MB blocks, before a more sensible threshold is reached. |
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I believe this statement from reddibrek summarizes it best:
Do you realise that once 51% of blocks are signalling Unlimited (according to Coindance today it is 33.3%) then the very first block mined by an Unlimited miner who cares to create a block of any size above 1 MB, will create a fork. BU miners will be able to follow that fork. That fork will be invalid for Core miners.
The reasoning from some BU community members is that everyone will be sensible enough to wait until something like 75% of blocks support BU, before a miner creates such a block. I ask anyone following the whole scaling debate from both sides, are coordination and cooperation the hallmarks of this situation?
The moment we reach 51% of blocks signalling BU, a whole new opportunity opens up for manipulation, for example for a miner to take a short position on Bitcoin and then mine +1MB blocks, before a more sensible threshold is reached.
Bitcoin has always been about one chain, one history, no split, immutability. This is going to be the biggest paradigm shift since the genesis block.
For months the talk has been ETF, China, etc. Scaling is by far and away the no.1 critical issue - has been for two years. I don't think people fully understand what's coming.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1819153.0 |
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There will be retrace moves but I see a rise back to 1200 only when the scalability debate has been solved. Otherwise there is just too much uncertainty in the market.
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It's a strange phenomenon that the price is so crazy right now. Its neither strange nor a "phenomenon". There is a possibility of a coin split and in that case prices would drop by 50 % and more. Therefore every Joe is cashing out now to wait it out. Its as simple as that.
Wow!! It looks like I can get into this. I like the volatility! I was just watching, and it shot down to $1000.00 briefly, before shooting back up to $1040.00
Theoretically, could I have put in an order $1000.00, then sold at $1040.00 for a $40.00 profit per btc??
Yes. Or, theoretically, you could have bought at 1040 and see it dropping to 1000. |
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I don't think it is all about miners. Developers have also something to say and who will get the name BTC (and this will be central in this battle) will be decided by the exchanges. they already deccided to stay with Core. I expect the price to go %50 below of what it is now.(double the bitcoin number, same USD available = bitcoin loses half of its value in USD. simple math.) And that is only the purely mathematical side. You also have to factor in speculation, uncertainty, fud. People who dont know anything technical about bitcoin have to learn that there are now two suddenly. It will also have a major price impact. It will promote distrust in bitcoin. Markets hate uncertainty. we could use a decentralized super computer like Golem as a central authority to validate large blocks a central solution. awesome  My speculation is that the worst thing for bitcoin right now is deadlock on the scaling debate. Anything that moves us closer to a resolution, even if it means HF, will be perceived by the market as bullish. in the long run definitely. But short and mid term the price devaluation would be significant. The ETH guys had to wait for what, 8 months now for the price to reach the former levels again. With a low of less than 30 % of the price before the HF. Polo too. I currently estimate a winning Bitcoin Core as more likely. However if BU would achieve to keep the major part of the hash power for a long time (say months) then sooner or later they would be regarded as the winning chain and market participants had no other choice than to recognize them as the true Bitcoin, also the exchanges. I dont think its likely right now, but its within the realm of possibilities. |
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If you watch what happened to ETH when they had their hardfork on the peak of the hype due to the DAO disaster and splitted into ETH and ETC, the lost a big share of hash power and it depressed the price for more than half a year. The price went down from 0.028 to 0.008 and its just catching up now.
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