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861  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 08:51:05 PM
GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.
I guess we disagree on this point.  I believe the discrepancy between MtGox and other exchanges is due to difficulties of getting USD (primarily) out, making arbitrage difficult.  Just as high fees does, as explained by smoothie.  You think the reason for the discrepancy is due to lack of trust in MtGox, even if every possible metric of trust show the opposite.  So I believe you are wrong, and I doubt you did the math yourself.
Sturle, we are both just trying to find the most accurate conclusion based on the data we have.  I've shown this chart over and over again, and while I thought it was self explanatory, evidently it isn't. You can see the prices diverge whenever there is a "crisis of confidence" event.
If you think the text on the graph proves anything, you are wrong.  My theory describe this better IMHO, and in addition doesn't need to hide the fact that MtGox is the most trusted of all the exchanges according to all the metrics.  There are various reasons for the lack of trust in other exchanges.  E.g. unanswered questions regarding regulatory status, lack of AML procedures, and in some cases obvious breach of laws.
862  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: The question everybody is asking but nobody has shared the solution to yet on: August 19, 2013, 07:40:16 PM
I tested one polish withdraw for 500 zlota and it went through next day. So then i tried larger ones and they are all still pending.
What does support have to say about it?
863  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 07:37:44 PM
Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.
Sturle you perhaps should do the math yourself on the discrepancies in percentage and also look into the fees that BTC-e charges to get fiat in and out. MTGOX doesn't charge that much to get fiat in and out (given they actually allow fiat in and out).

Your response is obviously overlooking the very well known price difference between GOX and BTC-e due to FEEs and highlighting it as if it is "normal" trading when there is a legitimate reason for the price difference concerning BTC-e, Unlike GOX.

GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.

I guess we disagree on this point.  I believe the discrepancy between MtGox and other exchanges is due to difficulties of getting USD (primarily) out, making arbitrage difficult.  Just as high fees does, as explained by smoothie.  You think the reason for the discrepancy is due to lack of trust in MtGox, even if every possible metric of trust show the opposite.  So I believe you are wrong, and I doubt you did the math yourself.
864  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 07:29:56 PM
I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.
You think, this is an answer to my question?
Then again: Why did their USD market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.
The answer is more complex than you think.  First of all the total volume crashed.  MtGox is boss at high volume, and at low volume it is more even.  The volume has been record low for a while, and the reason why the picture is very different today.  Second, while USD volume at MtGox has gone down, EUR and JPY volume has gone up.  Those are the smart money doing arbitrage, buying BTC from other exchanges to sell at MtGox.  Then there are people panicing, of course due to USD withdrawal problems.  (That's your dumb money leaving at a loss.)

If you have an EUR withdrawal waiting for more than a week, you should check and make sure it is a SEPA withdrawal.  It is easy to make the mistake of making it an international transfer instead.  Then contact support to make sure everything is in order.  No errors in forms or anything else making the transfer fail.
865  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 07:09:50 PM
If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.
And why crashed their market share from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?
I guess because the smart money is leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot).
I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

Take the last 24 hour volume:
51403 BTC traded in USD
 7615 BTC traded in EUR
 3086 BTC traded in JPY
 ... [ + a few k in other currecies ]

Non-USD currencies make up more than 20% of the total volume today.  And note that people have noticed they can withdraw JPY very quickly and move to other exchanges for arbitrage.

Bitstamp?  19367  BTC total today.   Less than 1/3 of MtGox.
BTC-E?  4587 BTC total today.  Less than EUR volume at MtGox.
866  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 06:53:58 PM
Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.
That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.
Eh?  You tell me "this" is incorrect (What is incorrect?) and make no attempt to prove it.  The difference in volume of the two exchanges is way more than 10x.  Depth and liquidity as well.
867  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 06:34:45 PM
MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.
Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

BTC-e requires lots of fees to get fiat into and out of the exchange.

That spread has been known for a very LONG TIME.

This new spread between GOX and all other exchanges is nothing that has been explained thoroughly through fees etc and is not justified by anything I am aware of other than mistrust in the exchange itself.
Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.
868  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 06:17:36 PM
And I personally think that "Mark knows it's all over".
Now you have _a_ source: me.
You think a lot of strange things.  Like that friends and family of MtGox staff has to pay a 5% fee to withdraw funds from MtGox, instead of the standard 200 yen fee for a next day domestic transfer, and present it like they have an advantage.  You are a troll, oyvinds.  Nothing less.  Your personal thoughts aren't worth much.
869  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 06:07:56 PM
MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.
Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.
870  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 04:41:05 PM
20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.
I never said 20% was sustained.  See chart above.  You can easily see where price variations happen with a loss of faith at Gox.  There is plenty of data points to gain a good perspective on the issue.  Jesus you are a Gox fanboy with that dog statement.  So do you consider 10-15% spreads "normal" because it isn't normal and never has been between Gox and Bitstamp until Gox starting running into financial/legal problems! Charts above prove it!
There is a different perspective which you are happy to ignore: Deposit problems at Bitstamp.  You have one exchange which many people can't withdraw fiat from, and another one which many people can't deposit fiat to.  The result can hardly surprise anyone, and has nothing to do about trust.

MtGox volume is many times the volume of Bitstamp.  The large leads the small.  Surprising?  No.
871  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 03:58:59 PM
Lol is that an attempt at an insult?  Actually no there hasn't been sustained 20% variances.  Maybe tiny blips for a few minutes but none that carry throughout the day.  Yesterday did have a 14.65% sustained spread though, an all time record high. 
20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.
872  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 03:31:07 PM
Stop. Just stop.  Your analysis is awful. The 10-14% i've plotted is sustained throughout the day (weighted average price).  The 20% spread, which isn't on that chart, is a temporary state.  Nontheless there has never been a 20% price discrepancy before so it was a notworthy high variance.  
When did you get out of your diapers?  There has been spikes of > 20% many times.  E.g. during the crash from 260, and the rally afterwards.  Quite recently.
873  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 03:26:18 PM
11:28 <@MagicalTux> fimp, sepa is going faster than wire right now
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)

I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".

Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?
Why do you even bother to ask your question here?  Just ask support.  The bank fees for an overnight SWIFT transfers are steep.  I assume you have to be trusted to get that option, and it will probably not be a good idea if you transfer less than six digits of USD.

Anyone with a domestic bank account in Japan can make even better profit.  The fee for an overnight JPY withdrawal is only 200 JPY (2 USD).
Quote
Why is this option not available to normal people?
Why is the "expensive" price not public?
Eh?  If it has ever been a secret, it hasn't been well kept.  You don't impress anyone buy acting surprised.

Quote
The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...
Oh, please stop barfing all over the forum.  Are you drunk or something?

MtGox staff live in Japan, and I assume most of their friends and family do as well.  Why pay a high withdrawal fee for express SWIFT transfer, when you can get a cheap domestic transfer faster?  You should stop doing drugs.
874  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 01:31:05 PM
If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp.  But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest.  Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%. 
Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally.  This isn't news.  Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.
Nope.  While it lags for a few minutes, sustained spread between exchanges is a recent phenomenon.  Those sustained spread periods are due to people losing trust in Gox. 
Your 20% isn't sustained.  10% extra spread for hours isn't uncommon when MtGox leads a rally:

15:18 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 13.3164556962 %.

Do you think the sustained spread between BTC-E and Bitstamp is because people have more trust in BTC-E than in Bitstamp?  Some people in financial trouble are buying BTC at MtGox to sell at other exchanges, but this is hardly about trust, is it?  There are more than 68k BTC for sale in the order book on MtGox.  That's a lot of money for an untrusted exchange.
[/quote]
875  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 12:45:40 PM
IS THIS REALLY A SIGN THAT ALL IS FINE AT MTGOX OR THE SIGN OF A "BANK RUN"?
If it was a bank run, the volume at other exchanges would equal that of MtGox because people were buying on MtGox to sell on other exchanges.  But it isn't.  Not even close.  Volume on MtGox today is much higher than on other exchanges.  USD volume alone is more than 3x the volume on Bitstamp, and 4x when you add up the rest of the currencies on MtGox.  No signs of empty hot wallet on MtGox today either, so probably just a normal rally where MtGox is leading as usual.
876  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 12:41:27 PM
If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp.  But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest.  Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%. 
Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally.  This isn't news.  Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.
877  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: The question everybody is asking but nobody has shared the solution to yet on: August 19, 2013, 12:38:50 PM
2.5% is the MtGox currency exchange fee for transactions that are coming from another currency is that right?

Question:
If all transactions are in one pool and I will pay 2.5% for a transaction with a seller in any other currency, what happens if I buy bitcoins from a seller using my currency, but which is not from the dominant currency. For example if I am based in GBP and I buy 1 BTC for 60GBP  from another user will this incur a 2.5% currency exchange free from the dominant currency? I.e. does seller actually list in USD (dominant currency) and thereby pay 2.5% and then I buy in GBP and pay 2.5% to do so?

How does one see when the 2.5% is charged to a transaction?

As a UK user is it stupid for me to keep GBP on MtGox? Is it better to just eat the currency exchange fee on entry and exit as is done at Bitstamp?
Many people have difficulties grasping this..

The difference is rarely 2.5%.  Here is a current picture of the best bid and best ask in various currencies (just a small selection), and their ratio to the best bid and ask in USD:
Code:
Tickers and ratio to USD:
EUR:    88.24500 0.9909    88.95000 0.9955
GBP:    74.25805 0.9773    75.00000 0.9837
AUD:   127.32911 0.9833   129.99000 1.0005
JPY: 11316.46600 0.9773 11704.00000 1.0073
PLN:   372.00000 0.9880   377.00000 0.9979
NOK:   687.66483 0.9773   711.89899 1.0083

As you'll see from this very few of the currencies have a 2.5% (0.975 or 1.025) ratio to USD.  Some currencies here has a ratio of 0.9773 on the bid side.  This is due to a bid in another currency (not displayed here) which is a 0.23% above the best USD bid.  It shows up at 0.9773 ratio to USD on all other currencies, including USD.  If someone sell in one of those currencies, it will be a mixed currency trade against that currency, not USD, which means the trade will happen at a price better than 2.5% below best USD bid.  Best ask are close to 1 for all currencies due to an ask in one currency (possibly GBP here, haven't checked) which is far below the best ask in USD.  This will show up fairly close to the best ask in USD as well.  The round numbers (129.99000 AUD, 11704.00000 JPY) indicates that the ask was placed in this currency.  If it is converted from a different currency, it is unlikely to be this round.  As you see you will usually trade against an order in the same currency.  Mixed currency trades are actually not very common.  Mixed currency against USD is even less common, since many use this as a metric of how the price should be, and bid or ask a little bit better in their own currency to pick up such trades.

There is no fee for anyone.  If someone buy the GBP ask at 75 using another currency, e.g. JPY, she will pay whatever her bid is in JPY.  The buyer gets her BTC at what she bid in JPY, and the seller will receive 75 GBP for each BTC she bought.  MtGox will do the currency conversion internally (at 2.5% comission).  This happens behind the scenes.
878  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 11:51:26 AM
This is because it was difficult to deposit at btc-e (or costly).
It is even more costly to withdraw from BTC-E.  This is mostly about trust.

13:49 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 14.0344717342 %.

Lowering a bit.  Rally at MtGox, and Bitstamp follows as usual.  Just lags a bit behind.  Expect the difference to fall more as it catches up and the rally ends at MtGox.
879  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 10:14:44 AM
+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
I absolutely agree.  But those either existed for a short period of time, or had a limited spread.  We are talking about a sustained 10% spread for 7+ days! And a sustained spread of over 5% for a month!
True, but BTC-E has been 5% or more below other exchanges for months in the past.  Only broken by sudden rallies or crashes.  The large spread between MtGox and a few other exchanges today is due to panic, and isn't going to last.  Just have a glance at the JPY volume today.  Those money will be at other exchanges in four days.  Exploit the spread while it is still possible.
880  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 19, 2013, 09:01:00 AM
No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  
Microsecond arbitrage opportunity is only true in very mature market, such as Forex.  And even that, there are ample arbitrage opportunities in that market if you talked to the experience forex traders.

But this is not true for the Bitcoin market because it is full of novice armchair investors (like zeroblock) that can only TALK in forum without taking any ACTION to exploit the situation.
+1.  It is not like 50% or more arbitrage opportunities never existed before in Bitcoin.  I have exploited quite a few, and two days of SEPA transfer time has generally not been a hinder to exploitation.  Not at this volume, of course.  5% has been normal for a long time between BTC-E and more trusted exchanges.  >3% between BTC-E and Bitstamp now, for example.
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