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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 02:32:30 AM
$11200 incoming. today? now?

You blew it for us, man.

Can't rush these things. Gotta let 'em organically happen.

Next 24 hours, blah etc penis.

Yes @BobLawblaw accurately don't go rush but definitely $11200 incoming next few days.

How can you know beyond 50-60% estimations, at best?  Unless you are a pretty BIG whale, and even whales might not really be able to know with a lot of certainty - except knowing that they have x number of bitcoins and y amount of cash strategically placed in various locations where x might be in the arena of 10k to 30k coins and y might be similar equivalents in cash such as $100million to $400million.**

**Would my hypothetical numbers be enough to constitute a whale?  Maybe a small sized one?  or a bare minimum entry-level whale?  I hypothesize that if a baby whale strategically places some value, then such whale could get the BTC price to move with relatively low amounts of liquidity - but being able to sustain any kind of BTC price movement probably takes quite a bit more than baby whale levels of value.. maybe 10x more value than my hypothetical entry-level whale?  

Even if he was a whale it wouldnt be 100% guaranteed, there's always whales trying to fuck over each other, this would be no exception
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 15, 2020, 03:44:24 PM
[...] caught nearly the exact top(for now anyway Tongue)! nice

Im in around 60% profit right now, will take some profit to cover fees in case we go back to my entry to stop me out (moved stop to entry)

Playing with FIRE (not the early retirement one). But good luck to you SS123, nice catch.

How am I playing with fire? I already took profits and set my stoploss as such I cannot lose money anymore, and even if I hadn't caught the top, when my stoploss hit I would've only lost 1%



 Bitcoin steadily rose from 10250 to 10765 (up $515) on Sept 14th and you executed a short with possibly a 15 minute window that was an $80 drop at best if executed flawlessly and you don't see the fire?  Dude, you're an adrenaline junkie.



Half an hour is waaaay more than enough time to click 2 buttons, while scalping its usually a way more success rate trade, so if I take enough trades im bound to come out positive, its just +EV gambling in a sense, its not  that dangerous if you know how to manage risk
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 15, 2020, 06:42:18 AM
[...] caught nearly the exact top(for now anyway Tongue)! nice

Im in around 60% profit right now, will take some profit to cover fees in case we go back to my entry to stop me out (moved stop to entry)

Playing with FIRE (not the early retirement one). But good luck to you SS123, nice catch.

How am I playing with fire? I already took profits and set my stoploss as such I cannot lose money anymore, and even if I hadn't caught the top, when my stoploss hit I would've only lost 1%

4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 15, 2020, 06:38:21 AM
Just a reminder: This is an extraordinary shorting opportunity. The higher the leverage the better based on my analysis.

Stop trying to trick naive noobs into parting with their money proudhon. Itís not cool!

I'm doing a great service using the best sources and confirmed analysis using science and maths.

Im waiting to short 10672-10680 but dont all in short 100x lmfao your guarenteed to get rekt

caught nearly the exact top(for now anyway Tongue)! nice

Im in around 60% profit right now, will take some profit to cover fees in case we go back to my entry to stop me out (moved stop to entry)

  We're back at your entry point again.  Try it now!

 


Who cares, I already took profit, it was a short term trade anyway
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2020, 02:35:55 PM
Just a reminder: This is an extraordinary shorting opportunity. The higher the leverage the better based on my analysis.

Stop trying to trick naive noobs into parting with their money proudhon. Itís not cool!

I'm doing a great service using the best sources and confirmed analysis using science and maths.

Im waiting to short 10672-10680 but dont all in short 100x lmfao your guarenteed to get rekt

caught nearly the exact top(for now anyway Tongue)! nice

Im in around 60% profit right now, will take some profit to cover fees in case we go back to my entry to stop me out (moved stop to entry)
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2020, 01:41:55 PM
Just a reminder: This is an extraordinary shorting opportunity. The higher the leverage the better based on my analysis.

Stop trying to trick naive noobs into parting with their money proudhon. Itís not cool!

I'm doing a great service using the best sources and confirmed analysis using science and maths.

Im waiting to short 10672-10680 but dont all in short 100x lmfao your guarenteed to get rekt
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 13, 2020, 01:25:31 PM


We are in this rising channel + historical volatility looks really low, bound for a breakout soon

we could breakout of the channel, go to 9700~, use some of the liquidity in that zone and then bart all the way back up to 11k



the same channel holding up really well, let me catch nearly the exact top in my short

edit: already cashed out my entire position, still waiting for my 9700~ longs tho
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 11:02:13 AM


We are in this rising channel + historical volatility looks really low, bound for a breakout soon

we could breakout of the channel, go to 9700~, use some of the liquidity in that zone and then bart all the way back up to 11k
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 10:45:49 AM
Are you blind? You can see the credits in the image.

No that watermark is the only reason i even found the original link, but most people wouldnt notice it, especially when the image is so small on bitcointalk and the watermark is very light

you blame your own eyesight and monitor size/resolution for your failure instead of your lack of attention to details?

before accusing someone of plagiarism, please pay a bit more attention.
I was the one who found the original twitter link by paying attention to details tho?

also i didnt even accuse him of plagiarism, i was just asking if that counts as plagiarism, and i was able to see the watermark on my screen because i zoomed in, just saying that an average user will probably not care to inspect that much and will just assume that the poster is the one who has made it
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 08:54:35 AM
I can barely call myself fluent at English,understood only like half of what you said  Tongue
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 07:14:24 AM
@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

and its not usually actually 5:1 odds, i just gave that as example, in real life itd be much more slower and safer if i was trading with a significant amount of money than what i showed in that challenge thread
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Short a few marbles on: September 11, 2020, 06:11:40 AM
You seem interested in promoting that for some reason.  I would suggest that if you want to gain peopleís trust, do fewer manifestos (preaching to the choir here) and more informative explanations about just how this works, what useful properties the system has, and why it should be trusted to not fail catastrophically.  Answering ZmnSCPxjís post would probably be a good start.  (No, I donít know himóbut I have learned something new from almost every one of his posts that Iíve ever read on bitcoin-dev.)
Edit:  I followed up there.

I just think its really cool lmao, im not part of the development team, i might help them a bit with marketing tho, i think they definitely deserve more recognition, I found the litepaper on this if that solves any of your questions- https://medium.com/sovryn/sovryn-litepaper-v0-1-d3e2bdd2dbdd

as for the failure part, i imagine theres gonna be audits, but I cant really assure you on anything since im not a programmer
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 06:06:04 AM
Are you blind? You can see the credits in the image.

No that watermark is the only reason i even found the original link, but most people wouldnt notice it, especially when the image is so small on bitcointalk and the watermark is very light
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2020, 04:36:28 AM
30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.



From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  Huh
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Short a few marbles on: September 11, 2020, 03:53:33 AM
Waving my hands a bit here (what type of random walk, etc.), say you somehow arrange it so that you have exactly 50% odds of hitting your stoploss before your profit take, 50% vice versa:  You thus have a 50% chance of losing 1%, and a 50% chance of gaining 5%.  It is EV+ gambling on 50/50 odds.
EV+ gambling is all trading is, but goodluck getting a 5:1 RRR consistently lmao, you will mostly find 2-3 RRR trades


It seems that I must have made a mistake here


Thats no mistake, but trading isnt just that simple, theres alot of nuance to it, especially market manipulation which will rekt you if your not careful


(and if I didnít, I had better get a margin accountówhich would mean ďdefiĒ, because I donít do KYC, and I donít know of any centralized exchanges that offer no-KYC margin accountsósorry, Jay).  What gives?

Can i interest you in some bitcoin defi?
The margin interest is going to be around 0.7% per year compared to binance's 10%, so its a better choice even if you dont give a shit about KYC or decentralization
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Short a few marbles on: September 11, 2020, 02:46:50 AM
Well, this is interesting:  What, exactly, is the difference between selling BTC that you own, and selling BTC that you borrowed on marginóother than the latter costing interest money (and having unbounded potential lossóbut I note you said you set a stop-limit on the upside)?
Main difference for me really is that I can trade with around 5x my balance while still only risking 1% while scalping, see for example if btc is at $10000 and my trade suggests a stoploss at $10020 and a take profit  at $9900, i have a 5:1 RRR here, but normally on spot exchanges id only be able to just sell my own btc and profit off of the difference, so id make a 5% profit on that, but on a perpetual swap i can borrow 5x my balance to sell, if my stoploss hits i still only lose 1%, but if my take profit hits i make 5% rather than just 1%


I donít see how that would protect you from an unexpected pump in the market,

Im only exposing myself to a 1% risk per trade, so in case my stoploss hits i only lose 1%, and if my stoploss is hit my balance is just the remaining spot btc so i really only just lost the 1%, not any potential profits from a rise

17  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Short a few marbles on: September 11, 2020, 02:22:30 AM
(EditóI also realize what ought to be obvious:  Anyone shorting Bitcoin is not holding any.  Because being long and short in the same asset would be insane.  If youíre long and you expect a drop, you sell:  You donít borrow more of the asset to sell it.  (Edit again:  Though if one were to start applying ďproudhon mathsĒ consistently, maybe going simultaneously long and short in the same asset would be a hedge.))

Not true at all, i hold btc and short it at the same time, but when im trading im only expecting to lose 1% per trade, but since im counting in bitcoin and not in dollars, if i sell and market pumps i lose a lot of %s in btc, so in order to increase my btc holdings i try to make use of small movements to make profits
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 10, 2020, 07:24:07 PM
Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

~snip~

Excellent move! I would expect in the short, medium, and long term that bitcoin will go down. If you can hold your short for a few years you might become a billionaire.

nah im closing it around 9800
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 10, 2020, 07:20:38 PM
Entered shorts at 10472, already locked in some profits to cover fees in case we go back to entry (where i moved my stop)

20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Sovereign Bitcoiner's Manifesto on: September 10, 2020, 12:37:05 PM
On user interface, you can help out. We have a whole channel on our discord (https://discord.gg/QErxPYG) dedicated to user testing and feedback. We are currently working on a new, improved UI and will be rolling that out soon.

As for fees, I expect they will be 2 orders of magnitude lower than current Ethereum fees.

should post the discord link in the original post
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