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1  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Seriously, though, how would a libertarian society address global warming? on: August 02, 2011, 10:11:42 AM
The onus is on you to provide credible evidence of significant anthropogenic climate change from sources without a conflict of interest.

Why the **** would anyone need to do that?

Almost NOTHING on this planet happens without a conflict of interest, since people need to eat and therefore need someone to pay for what they do.

Researchers working in universities in general DON'T make very good money. And that's where 99 % of climate research is made. If it's a scam it is not going very well, judging from the fact that the ones I know take the bus to work because they can't afford a car.

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. If it wasn't so sad, it would be hilarious when deniers pull out Al Gore and "government scientists" when the concept goes back almost 50 years (though the term global warming wasn't coined until the mid-70s), and the science it's based on is approaching 200 years. That alone says EVERYTHING about the amount of understanding the denier camp has.

2  Other / Off-topic / Re: What have you bought your wife latley? on: July 29, 2011, 08:11:17 PM
A dog  Smiley
3  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Pool hopping... ethical or not? on: July 26, 2011, 05:36:11 PM
PPS pools
Proportional. PPS is something else entirely.

Oops.

So it's not like Poker at all. You can still play poker if everyone knows the odds, you can't mine in prop if everyone hops.

The mining halting is really the function of the optimal hopping strategy. In poker playing the perfect strategy is close to impossible, but if everyone did, the situation would be close - everyone would win and lose the same on average.
4  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Pool hopping... ethical or not? on: July 26, 2011, 03:40:17 PM
In my opinion, the near-perfect analogy to pool-hopping is a game of poker where some people know the odds and the others don't. The ones with the knowledge (who put it to use) have a clear advantage.

Similarly, in both cases, the more people maximize their expected value by playing the odds optimally, the less there is to win. Ultimately, if everyone pool-hopped, the PPS pools would simply halt and the EV would drop to 0.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin and inherent value on: July 21, 2011, 08:00:33 AM
First, don't ever sell bitcoins on the exchanges.  Instead, look hard for ways you can spend it on things you need.  

Isn't the difference between buying currency rather than goods, using Bitcoins, mostly philosophical? Otherwise, I can't see a difference.

FWIW, in Europe a lot of EUR prices fluctuate according to the USD exchange rate, since the importers need to pay in USD. Computer parts are an obvious example, the prices can change a lot over time.
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TradeHill - Now accepting EUR deposits - EUR market is live! on: July 19, 2011, 06:49:26 PM
Well done!

Just signed up. Smiley
7  Other / Off-topic / Re: (almost) free energy presentation for real ? on: July 14, 2011, 01:10:16 PM
Here's an article from the guy who filmed the videos:

http://www.newenergytimes.com/v2/news/2011/37/Report2-372-EnergyCatalyzerScientificCommunicationAndEthicsIssues.shtml
8  Other / Off-topic / Re: The biggest security hole -> Default values on: July 08, 2011, 07:07:12 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Since you think passwords are so easy to break, here is a SINGLE-ROUND md5 hash of a password I use daily. It even has dictionary based words in it so that it's easier to remember. Let me know when you've cracked it: 3dcd7dd499205f7f36544e71d3e8ed49

Here's another single-round md5 which would be considered very weak by most security professionals: 827a9861340aa529ad351cd80fcd1283
Let me know when you've cracked that one, too!
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How do you protect bitcoin from an Electro-Magnetic Pulse? on: July 08, 2011, 06:53:47 AM
FWIW, modern data centers have EMP protected walls.

The datacenter where my servers are also has a flywheel UPS for short power outages, and a diesel generator that can supply power up to 4 days for longer ones.
10  Economy / Economics / Re: Who is buying above $13? Manipulation or Market? on: July 07, 2011, 04:13:37 PM
The price now is relatively unimportant. The price when I sell is very important. That won't be soon.

The price now is all there is. Anything else is belief.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gold has security issues too on: July 07, 2011, 04:27:30 AM
when leaving on vacations with my family like we will be doing for a week this coming Friday, i would always worry in the back of my mind that my house might get burglarized.

Well, now you'll be checking Mt.Gox every 5 minutes to see if Satoshi decided to dump all his coins at once. Good luck.  Grin
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 07, 2011, 04:13:27 AM
Higher profit per 1Ghash = more miners. (higher security)
Lower profit per 1Ghash = less miners. (lower security)
Every miner has a certain profitability they're trying to reach, otherwise they will drop out.

More miners decreases the profit per miner. It's actually about the ratio between difficulty and value of BTC, and where it will eventually settle.

I argue that mining profitability will eventually match others similar markets, which means that at the current BTC valuation, difficulty would be somewhere around 5,000,000.

Currently, you are getting back more than twice what you pay in electricity, which should still be very lucrative to many. But you need a lot of hashing power to make meaningful money.

Sort of seeing this already, even at the current profitability. Network growth has basically stalled.

I think that has more to do with the DDoSing of the pools than miners actually dropping out.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Who is buying above $13? Manipulation or Market? on: July 07, 2011, 03:58:26 AM
So either bitcoins WERE 100% overpriced or they ARE 50% undervalued currently. Time will tell. 

The price is currently exactly what the market thinks is the right price. It also was exactly what the market thought was the right price when it hit $30.
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 07, 2011, 03:05:42 AM
More likely, if it reaches $0.30 per day per ghash, it will be more like F@H. Only enthusiasts will support the network. The rest will just buy. Of course, this means less security on the network overall.

I said profit... Meaning something like $2.70 operating costs + $0.30 profit (roughly 10 %) = $3 per gigahash per day. Obviously these numbers are just very rough guesses but shouldn't be too far from the reality.

High difficulty and low security can't coexist AFAIK....

Maybe I'm using the terms wrong, English is not my native language.
15  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 07, 2011, 02:55:22 AM
He is talking of mining and holding, hoping for the price to go up. That is a valid strategy, but if you are counting on the price going up, you can often make more if you _buy_ and hold instead of _mine_ and hold. With rising difficulty, many cards will not ever make as many bitcoins as you could have bought with equivalent funds at the time. This is particularly true is you time your buy well, like the $11 dip yesterday.

The price isn't guaranteed to go up again any time soon, IMO. Limiting supply doesn't help if there is no demand. The market would simply halt, if everyone just held their coins in hopes to get the price up.

In fact, in the medium term, I'm pretty sure there is a large amount of Bitcoins just waiting to be sold, which is likely to keep the price down for quite some time. This is actually good news to Bitcoin but bad news to those who thought it was a way to get rich quick with a bunch of Radeon cards.
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 07, 2011, 02:37:03 AM
It's a mistake to think in terms of USD profit.

The profit is easiest measured in the currency that you pay your electric bill in. But since they are exchangable, it doesn't really matter.

Furthermore, even if you don't care for Bitcoins, no one is obligated to sell at the current market prices, that's actually the stupidest way to go.

So who is buying above current market prices?

At least for the time being, I think most people/companies who approach mining as business need to exchange the generated coins to another currency in order to pay the bills.
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 07, 2011, 02:32:44 AM
You also have to factor in hardware depreciation costs.. New video cards come out all the time, usually once a year but can be sooner... and also the fact that other technology could come out and disrupt your entire "large scale" operation (ASICs etc). Technology moves very fast - it's going to have to be higher than $.30 per gigahash. At that rate you'll almost certainly go negative, unless you play the markets and make sure to sell your hardware at the right time.

I think only means it will get more difficult to even enter the mining business without the capital to put into the hardware. Which is really no different from any other type of competitive business. Only the businesses which invest in efficiency survive.
18  Economy / Economics / Re: What creates this price for a bitcoin? on: July 06, 2011, 11:28:01 PM
I know a dollar is worth a dollar since I have been born, based on what the gov says and the financial banking industry and power of the dollar. 

The value of a dollar today is very different from the dollar a year ago, though. It's the prices and wages that change.
19  Economy / Economics / Re: Who is buying above $13? Manipulation or Market? on: July 06, 2011, 11:05:19 PM
In theory, the current price is always correct, and it already includes the market's expectation of the future. Currently, the demand is clearly not there to drive the price up. And at the current difficulty, it'd be very profitable for miners to sell @ $5, so we are way above the minimum threshold.

You clearly just contradicted yourself. The price wouldn't have moved up if demand wasn't there. The current price is always correct, right? Thanks for the laugh.  

He was talking about $30. If the demand was there to get it to $30, it would go there. Therefore, the current price is the right price. What exactly is contradictory?

Glad I made you laugh.

20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 06, 2011, 10:25:45 PM
You have to factor in equipment and space too. Electricity isn't the only cost to mining. I would think it lower, 3.5 mil, perhaps. And most big mining operation are counting on the continued success of bitcoin to justify initial costs. I think the past months troubles have made some question that.

5,000,000 difficulty @ $15 per Bitcoin would give you a little over 10 % markup, which is still somewhat above where most highly competitive markets settle. Initial costs are only a barrier to entry (tying up capital), and operating costs are typically tackled with economies of scale. Obviously, at less than $.30 profit per day per gigahash, you'd need a giant operation for mining to make any sense, anyway.

The numbers are very rough estimates, of course. For instance, I'd expect serious mining operations to by power in bulk or do something more creative such as start their own windfarms in order to get some cheap electricity...
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