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161
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Economy / Speculation / Re: ARGHHHHH!!!! Bitcoin going through floor
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on: January 18, 2014, 03:59:07 AM
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I am thinking about shorting also. It is the better gamble right now in my opinion. I already sold all my bitcoins at around $820 to $840 last week, but why wait for the price to fall back to sustainable levels when you can make money along the way.
The rally stalled like expected and did not rally that much higher like also expected. It will not rally as high anymore because people are not stupid to keep buying into these rallies. People realize that the price will not rally that high anymore, so why keep buying into them if the price just keeps making new lows.
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162
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Economy / Speculation / Re: ARGHHHHH!!!! Bitcoin going through floor
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on: January 17, 2014, 10:38:15 PM
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I would wait for the next rally to stall and then short, guaranteed to keep going lower.
I just do not understand why people keep buying at every low when it is obvious that the price is going to go much lower.
These mini rallies will become less and less profitable as people will not be as stupid to fall for them.
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163
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Economy / Speculation / Re: POLL - Capitulation ahead?
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on: January 17, 2014, 06:17:00 PM
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We are probably in the fear stage now.
Its looking bad, bitcoin falling to pull even past $800 on btce. Nobody is thinking $700 bitcoins are even cheap now.
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164
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 09:05:03 AM
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This rally will be short lived and we should go down into the 700's from here, probably tomorrow it will happen.
The price had a little rally because some people think they can buy now and then make a quick buck selling at $900 like the last two mini rallies, I doubt it will happen again as nobody will buy their bitcoins at a higher price when they know the price will probably fall back down.
Anyone holding their bitcoins now are crazy not to sell them and sit with fiat right now. A rally is almost certain not to happen, and there is such a good chance of it going lower.
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166
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 05:03:52 AM
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Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.
Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in. How do you assess the increase/decrease in demand? Is it by the rate of the price moving up/down or some other observation/tool? I'd be interested in knowing. Good question. I don't use any of those sophisticated graphs and tools as if they worked then everybody would be rich. They probably have very little predictive power. If they worked you could just create a computer program to trade. You just get a feel for the market and where it is headed, you take as much information as you can in and just make an educated guess. Kind of like intuition. You really do need to take into account as much information as possible to even being close to accurate. Sometimes I spend 5 to10 hours a day or more reading about bitcoins and watching the prices, listening to different people's opinions etc. However, I always had a very good intelligence of taking in a lot of different information and being able to combine all that together and use it to make decisions. I noticed most other people seem to learn quicker but take in smaller amounts of information and are not able to use that information or combine it for any reasonable usefulness. Kind of like reading a book. I read a book much slower than other people but then I am able to make comparisons and use the information much better. Other people read much quicker but are not able to use what they learned. Why am I saying this, not everybody has the proper intelligence to make good market decisions, and you really can't use tools or graphs. The key to being even somewhat right is to take in as much information as possible from as many different sources as you can and hopefully have the proper intelligence to combine all this information together to help have predictive power. Very few people have this intelligence, but it may be more prominent on internet forums as it attracts more intelligent people. However, just because you write well doesn't mean jack. |
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167
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 02:47:23 AM
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Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.
We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.
I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune. I've seen it cycle a few times now. Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate. Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of. Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come. After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period. It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off. Its as fair of an opinion as any. I think this rally really put owning large numbers of bitcoins out of the realm of possibility for a lot of people on here and that has also created a sentiment among many that they missed out. I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over. I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up. Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story. This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence. |
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168
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 02:33:03 AM
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Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.
We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.
I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune. I don't know why you think I have an agenda. I clearly stated my reasons for it going lower, I have also clearly stated that I cashed out all my bitcoins. I even labeled the post "bears only" clearly showing that it will be people posting about it going down. NO agenda, I am showing you where I put my money. Now I am genuinely curious where this market is going and curious about what other bears think. In my last "bears only" thread when I asked about how low it will go, us bears came tot he conclusion that it would bottom out around $600 with a short drop into the $500's. That was the most popular answer to how low we would go and that is actually where it went. Bears were right 100%, not the bulls stating high prices and growth. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=368572.msg3942651#msg3942651This is why I like to only have a bear only discussion because I feel bears are somehow smarter about the market and much more reasonable in their estimates. I really don't know why you think I have an agenda here, I really just seek knowledge and will use that knowledge to base my decision on if I should put my money back into bitcoins or continue sitting out. Here |
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169
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 02:10:46 AM
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Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.
Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen. Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in. |
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170
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 02:03:17 AM
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My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September? If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks. Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013: I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice
Here's another dated Sept. 15th: That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.
Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
Sept. 28th: IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.
Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts): It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$, and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.
I wasn't around herein 2013, but I would think that some unexpected things happened in 2013 that were unpredictable that may have flawed his analysis. I have not done my research into this but supposedly the US Government more or less accepted bitcoins and did not ban it. I saw how the government shut down e-gold some years ago and I always thought bitcoin days are numbered if it got too big. The other unexpected was the China government letting bitcoin get so popular there. I would never thought this would happen, and more or less it didn't happen for long. These seem to be two big driving forces that really helped bitcoin in 2013. In 2011/2012 I would not have invested much money for fear the US government would shut it down. Not that this is really on-topic but just saying that some bears analysis are flawed for some major events happening in 2013 that were largely unexpected. |
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172
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Economy / Speculation / Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?
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on: January 17, 2014, 12:09:56 AM
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Bears only discussion please, please post elsewhere if you're bullish. Serious discussion only here.
I sold all my bitcoins last week as I pulled out of all my alts prior to this. I am certain bitcoin will fall lower, and it seems to want to go lower but somehow just keeps rebounding back. Every rebound has failed.
From what I notice there seems to be very little demand above $900's. Nobody seems to want to pay that much money for a bitcoin. We have super low volume and it seems most people are just sitting back and waiting.
Since I sold, it has already went lower and rebounded back like there times. Since I am bearish and think bitcoin got too ahead of itself, and is way too ahead of itself with all the china issues, I am sticking with my bet that it will go lower. Lets face the fact that $800 bitcoin is still a very high amount.
My other reason for bitcoin going lower is that major wales are not making money with the lack of demand above $800 and for them to make money they will let the price fall.
I ask fellow bears, if there are any out there and if there are any out there brave enough to post here, when do you think the price will start to show a significant fall, like staying in the 700's for at least a day.
How far of a fall are we looking at? Do you think we fall below $500's for example?
Or maybe you bears are bullish now, thinking we will just have sideways trading for a while at most, then the prices will start to rise again?
We did predict the last fall in our "bears only" thread that bitcoin would bottom out around $500-$600 and we were right. So I assume we will figure out what is going on here if enough of you offer your thoughts/insight.
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174
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I'm dumping Nxt and here's why you should too
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on: January 13, 2014, 05:13:26 PM
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What does NXT really offer that bitcoin, other alts, or 2nd gen alts offer? Not that much that is really useful.
2nd generation alts will be a dime a dozen, they will never get the popularity needed until something truly revolutionary is developed.
All alts are going down right now and will get worse. I don't own much of any of them right now.
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175
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Economy / Speculation / Where I placed my bets on short-term bitcoin price.
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on: January 13, 2014, 06:34:30 AM
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I think once you saw the poster you probably knew where I placed my bets  . This is a serious post and just letting you guys know how I placed my bets and why. I am not trying to tell you how to place your bets or trying to make you guys sell or anything like that, so no flaming me please. Anyway, I sold out around 7 bitcoins, or mostly all the bitcoins I could easily transfer to the exchange. I started before this last recent rally by selling half at $820. Didn't expect this recent rally, but sold the rest some hours ago for $840 after this rally failed. These are campbx prices and not MTgox so they are a lot lower, like $100 lower. Bitcoin can go either way as there is nothing certain anymore but here is why I decided to place my bets for it going lower. First, you should understand that only big speculators really control the price. They use their wealth to push the market where they want, then they hope you guys pick up the slack and they profit from that. They tried twice to push bitcoin to over $1000 dollars and both times have failed to start any rally higher. Volume got super low and the demand for expensive bitcoins is just not there. This was unlike the situation with the first push to $1000 which had lots of mania and super high volume. Since they probably spent a lot of money twice trying to push the market higher and failed, they will pull back and let the price slide back down. This way they can at least buy at say $400 and then try and push it up to $1000 again and sell at $1000. Well, these are my thoughts anyway. I could be wrong as it could go either way and wouldn't be surprised either if it went up. But I feel more certain that it just has to go lower from here so that the big market players can make some money again. I sold half after the first push to $1000 failed, and sold the rest today. |
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176
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] WARNING, EMUNIE IS AN ELABORATE IPO SCAM @@@@@@MUST READ@@@@@@
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on: January 12, 2014, 07:21:26 AM
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What worries me about emunie is the fact that new emunie will be created to keep the price stable.
This may be OK with me, but where does the money go to when new emunie is created and sold?
What scared me also is that any talk about this on the forum has moderators yelling about how you can't talk about it. Others also told me that it was said you will not get rich on this coin.
What I can see is that the original creator will pocket the pre-sale money, then they will also pocket the money when new coins are sold onto the market.
Yes, I heard some of the newly generated coins (maybe 50%) will go to the people already holding them, but what about the other 50%?
Simply put, this was created to put money into the original developers pockets. Maybe you can make some, but half or more will go to the developers.
However, you guys better do your homework here because they are very strict on the forum about people talking about this stuff. Seems like they want to silence and hide it as they know they are setting up to take a lot of money from you guys, and intend to take it also through selling newly made coins after the pre-purchase. They will get all pre-sales money, and at least 50% of after sales money from what I can read. Could be even worse.
To me it is not 100% scam, they won't be running out the door with your money. But they are scamming you by taking all your pre-sale money for what they claim are development costs. We all know how much it costs to develop these coins, close to nothing. They also will scam you guys out of new coins generated to keep the price stable. They sell them and keep at least half of the money.
I liked this coin and even wrote that it had a fair distribution in other posts here on bitcointalk in the past. However, I wonder what is up and I don't like the forum banning talks about how the currency will be price controlled and where the money will go. Again, do your homework before throwing down money.
I am not saying this is a scam coin, it is just that I don't really understand it fully yet and also any talk about how the new emunie will be split up is banned on the forum. I had other good sources tell me they were skeptical also. Do your homework. This coin will not work like a bitcoin. It will be price stabilized so it will always be say 10 cents a coin. New coins will have to be made if demand makes the coin higher than 10 cents. Money from newly purchased coins does not flow back fully to the investors.
You need to come spend some time reading our forums. As a moderator I can tell you that there are no 'banned' talks about anything other then the name eMunie. This is just plain FUD. Every single statement here is false and half of it can be found here on the bitcoin talk forums. Take a look at this moderator, talking about closing down threads when talking about price appreciation. Not only that he threatened to lock/delete threads like this in the future. GUYS LOOK FOR YOURSELF http://forum.emunie.com/index.php?/topic/1061-emunie-appreciation-launch-unlikely/page-3You then say there are no banned talks? Guys, better do your homework about how all this will work. Just how much money will flow into the developers hands and how the new coins sold in the future will be distributed. Here is what is said in the post from eMunie web developer called Visin. On a thread titled eMunie appreciation @ launch unlikely! (?) This left me with a bad feeling as I was reading the thread and curious to how appreciation in the currency will be distributed. Seems like they want it to be kept quiet because they plan on taking most of the coins appreciation. I am surprised nobody on this thread is talking about this. The guy above who claims to be a moderator is saying nothing is banned, yet go look for yourself. Talks about price appreciation, and exactly about how new emunie will be split up is banned talk. Below is quoted directly from "Visin" on emunie forum. I guarantee the thread will now be deleted. But I already took a snapshot of it. Really, do I have to close another thread?
Dan has not said anything 100% final yet, you will know nothing until the day of launch whenever that day may be.
I've said it before, and I will say it again... nothing is official until Dan says it.
These kind of threads will be locked/deleted in the future without notice.
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177
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] WARNING, EMUNIE IS AN ELABORATE IPO SCAM @@@@@@MUST READ@@@@@@
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on: January 12, 2014, 04:20:59 AM
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What worries me about emunie is the fact that new emunie will be created to keep the price stable.
This may be OK with me, but where does the money go to when new emunie is created and sold?
What scared me also is that any talk about this on the forum has moderators yelling about how you can't talk about it. Others also told me that it was said you will not get rich on this coin.
What I can see is that the original creator will pocket the pre-sale money, then they will also pocket the money when new coins are sold onto the market.
Yes, I heard some of the newly generated coins (maybe 50%) will go to the people already holding them, but what about the other 50%?
Simply put, this was created to put money into the original developers pockets. Maybe you can make some, but half or more will go to the developers.
However, you guys better do your homework here because they are very strict on the forum about people talking about this stuff. Seems like they want to silence and hide it as they know they are setting up to take a lot of money from you guys, and intend to take it also through selling newly made coins after the pre-purchase. They will get all pre-sales money, and at least 50% of after sales money from what I can read. Could be even worse.
To me it is not 100% scam, they won't be running out the door with your money. But they are scamming you by taking all your pre-sale money for what they claim are development costs. We all know how much it costs to develop these coins, close to nothing. They also will scam you guys out of new coins generated to keep the price stable. They sell them and keep at least half of the money.
I liked this coin and even wrote that it had a fair distribution in other posts here on bitcointalk in the past. However, I wonder what is up and I don't like the forum banning talks about how the currency will be price controlled and where the money will go. Again, do your homework before throwing down money.
I am not saying this is a scam coin, it is just that I don't really understand it fully yet and also any talk about how the new emunie will be split up is banned on the forum. I had other good sources tell me they were skeptical also. Do your homework. This coin will not work like a bitcoin. It will be price stabilized so it will always be say 10 cents a coin. New coins will have to be made if demand makes the coin higher than 10 cents. Money from newly purchased coins does not flow back fully to the investors.
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180
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I'm dumping Nxt and here's why you should too
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on: January 07, 2014, 03:08:08 PM
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Supposedly cryptsy won't add NXT because the NXT coin doesn't work with their client.
I knew the price would tank when I woke up, yesterday nobody was buying at .000055.
Wasn't that surprised to see it at .000039.
People still talking about buying cheap coins, still thinking you can profit at even .000039.
Just wait a few more days and it will continue its drop even lower.
There are much better investments, and Emunie is not pegged at a certain price. Nothing has been decided yet. Supposedly people think that if the price rises then new coins will be sold but a portion of those go to everyone who owns coins.
Anyone buying NXT is crazy when there are much better alternatives. Code is supposedly a mess also. Uneven distribution has tainted this cone badly and for good reason as we have seen.
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