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201  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Coinex threatens to contact local police on me. on: December 27, 2013, 04:09:49 AM
Just to give an update, I did a audit of my account and I found a couple of things.

The first thing is they did not record a .1 bitcoin deposit.

The 2nd thing is, I think they are right in that I should have a negative deposit. However, I have more bitcoin deposited in the account after I get my .1 bitcoin than I owe in a negative balance. So I will just make the account positive at this point.

202  Economy / Speculation / Re: new btc buyer here, bought in slowly, will have about .8 tomorrow.. on: December 26, 2013, 10:25:40 AM
Should I hold it? trade? sell? advice, thanks!

If you can buy more then buy more and hold them. Also look into lite coins

litecoin? That was just $17 bucks a couple of days ago. I hardly think it is a good investment at $24 right now.
203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why I think bitcoins are a bad investmen at these high prices. on: December 26, 2013, 09:54:46 AM
I think what you mean is "less reward" and not "more risk".

Good point. You definitely have a lot less reward at the current prices. It will take such a large growth for prices to keep pace with the gains that were made this year.

That is a good question, do you have more risk at say $20 dollars or $700 dollars. I am going to say that you also have more risk at $700 as I do not think the marketcap supports the real current market right now. It has grown too fast and was priced up higher based on huge potential growth in china that has not panned out.
There is a lot more risk of bitcoin falling to $100-$300 levels and staying there than bitcoin at $20 falling to $3.00 to $8.00 in my opinion. Simply $700 dollar bitcoin price is highly unstable at this current time.

EDIT:

Basically, if you get less reward for a given investment, than the investment is more risky??


204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why I think bitcoins are a bad investmen at these high prices. on: December 26, 2013, 09:41:13 AM
So you're just trying to say that bitcoin is a risky investment, and yes I agree it still is. But no more risky (less even) than it was at $10, $100 or $300. There are also new bitcoin hodlers coming in each day which helps sustain higher prices and decrease the average volatility. The price swings were much larger when bitcoin was at lower prices so you actually had more to lose back then (but also more to win). If you wait until the risk is almost gone and bitcoin stands rock solid you will be too late.

Wrong. What I am saying is that it is a much riskier investment now at $700 than it was at $10 or even $100. The marketcap has to increase so much more to get the same gains as you would at a lower bitcoin price.

Investing $1000 when bitcoins is a $1.00, will give you the same downside risk as investing in bitcoins when they are $1000. You both can lose your entire $1000. However, the potential gains are astronomically higher at $1.00 than they are at $1000. For bitcoins to go from say $1.00 to $20 dollars is so much higher than from bitcoins to go from $1000 to $20,000 dollars.

I think the problem here is many of you do not know how to calculate risk properly.

205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why I think bitcoins are a bad investmen at these high prices. on: December 26, 2013, 09:06:17 AM
Just wanted to say, I still think bitcoins can hit $1000. I am not trying to say it can't go up higher.

My point in saying is that the whole price is a house of cards. The only reason it can sustain these price levels and move higher is because so many bitcoin holders do not sell, they do not need to. However, if anything happened which caused just a small increase in bitcoin holders cashing out the whole thing would come collapsing down.

I already have stated that the reason why the price would go higher is simply that bitcoin holders are not selling just holding for a higher price. I never said that bitcoin was a good investment, it is a highly risky one and the potential returns you would get are not worth the risk of paying $700 for a bitcoin. Actually, you would have to be a insanely stupid investor to buy bitcoins to speculate with at the ridiculously price level it is at now.

The price level it is priced in now was based largely on huge growth in china that is not turning out very good.

I do not buy bitcoins to speculate with them, I buy them only to quickly buy other investments with the bitcoins. However, these investments are somewhat tied to the bitcoin price. This is only why I hope that the price at least holds or stabilizes as if that happened I would do very well. I have done well with my non-bitcoin investments even with the price drops that bitcoin has had. This is only because I choose the proper investments.

Thanks guys for not trying to refute my point or support it. Instead you try and attack my reputation. You are obviously bitcoin holders who know that your betting on a house of cards and the last thing you want is it to collapse.

However, I think there are many other who will see my point and understand that what I write makes lots of sense and I wait for someone to counter what I wrote here.

My whole point was not that bitcoin price would go lower or higher, it was simply that the risk to reward ratio does not make it a good investment. It actually makes it a very bad investment. One in which you take on a ridiculous amount of risk for a potential return that will not be very high. This was my point, not what I wrote yesterday saying we could reach $1000. With the low volume and people just sitting back and waiting we could hit $1000. But it would be insanely stupid to buy bitcoins to take this risk of it rising higher with all the downside risk that you may have. 






206  Economy / Speculation / Why I think bitcoins are a bad investmen at these high prices. on: December 26, 2013, 06:09:56 AM
I think this should be common sense.  But maybe my logic is wrong somehow, well here goes.

When bitcoins were  $20 dollars each, and you bought $1000 dollars worth of bitcoins, you would own 50 bitcoins.

Bitcoins at $1000 each, you buy $1000 dollars worth, you have 1 bitcoin.

Now for you to double your investment to $2000. Bitcoins at $20 dollars each would have to rise to $40 dollars each.

To double your investment at $1000, 1 bitcoin would have to rise a whopping $1000 dollars more for you to double your investment.

Now you may think, well the price would have to double from $20 to $40 or from $1000 to $2000 and your $1000 would be worth $2000. Well....

This means, the market cap for $20 dollar bitcoins to increase to $40 dollars would have a market cap increase of $243 million.

For bitcoins to increase from $1000 to $2000, you would have to increase market cap a whopping $12 billion dollars.

Now think about this, if your new to investing in bitcoins, do you really want to risk $1000 when to double your money you would have to risk $1000 dollars and hope that the market cap has to increase 48x more than it would compared to $20 dollar bitcoins. Do you want to gamble on the market cap increasing 12 billion dollars or 243 million dollars, to double your money.

Maybe something is wrong with my logic, but to me buying bitcoins at $700 or $1000 is simply a very bad investment that I simply will not do. I just do not feel the returns are there for the risk you take of the price falling back down and also the risk of the market cap having to increase exponentially more!

Simply bitcoins have grown so astronomically in the last year that to continue this momentum is just a risky gamble at this point. The higher the price goes the less people want to buy bitcoins that are very expensive. The higher the price goes it also takes a much higher market cap increase to get the same returns.

Now think about this. I doubt that there are that many new buyers in the bitcoin market than there were at the beginning of this year when bitcoins were $13 dollars. When bitcoins were $13 dollars a rise form $13 dollars to $23 dollars would have been huge! But in actuality a bitcoin price rise from $700 to $710 seems small now, but it takes the same market cap increase as it did in January. Yet you would think a $700 to $710 increase is nothing now.

Something just does not add up to me with how the prices are and how high they have grown over such a short period of time. The bitcoin market seems like a house of cards and the only thing holding it together is that owners of bitcoins are wealthy enough to not need to cash out their bitcoins and just sit on them. If anything happened where even a small increase in bitcoin holders needed to cash out for what ever reason (like a downturn in the economy), the price would crash faster than you could imagine. Simply put again a house of cards.

My recommendation is that anyone thinking about investing their hard earned money in bitcoins should think about this and stay away. There are simply much better investments out there than investing in bitcoins. You are taking such extreme risk with your money at this point to get the gains you want.

Bitcoin holders who are predominately on this forum already own their bitcoins at much lower prices. They will not let you know these facts and they do not stand to lose nearly as much as you investing at $700 vs them investing at sub $100 prices. This is why I think bitcoin holders are simply crazy for not cashing out at these high prices and let someone else hold the bag for such a risky investment that to me looks like a house of cards waiting to tumble at these ridiculously higher prices that happened so quickly. Just look around for other investments and you can easily have exponential growth just like the current bitcoin holders now have. We have missed the boat entering in at $700 and it will take large increases for the prices to go higher and at any moment you have to hope that there is not a reason why people want to start cashing out as the price would easily fall back down at these high prices.

Please correct me if I am wrong here, or please let me know if I have a point here.








207  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Coinex threatens to contact local police on me. on: December 25, 2013, 06:09:18 PM
Bram, I am not really sure how this happened. And it is difficult to determine what happened as I made many trades and bought different alt-coins.
I really did not keep great track of how many bitcoins I sent them and how many I bought.

If I do look in my alerts, It does add up that I bought all the alt-coin. So I did place orders for all those coins.

They also have tied up anyway some bitcoins, which almost makes it a wash, so we are only talking a little money if I used my bitcoins to buy back the alt-coin.

Since I can't be sure what happened and since they obviously made mistakes by allowing me to get a negative balance in the first place, I just don't want to send them money at this point.

Could they really just contact the local police and the police would come to my house for something like this? Could the police confiscate my computer?
208  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Coinex threatens to contact local police on me. on: December 25, 2013, 05:41:36 PM
After coinex was down for three days and came back online I have a negative balance. It is hard to say I agree with the negative balance.

They sent an email saying that I have to make the account positive again or they will consider it a theft and contact local police.
209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Volume Explained... on: December 25, 2013, 03:55:39 AM
Yes Peter, you are correct. I do not think bitcoin is a scam, just that it is  manipulated. But I guess it is manipulated for the benefit of making money so many can win also. You just have to play it smart during the pumps and dumps so you're not left holding the bag. You should also not be blind when the price rises to unsustainable levels.

I just wish bitcoin price would stabilize here and not go any lower (don't we all). Actually, because I halted buying bitcoins for other investments, I probably have lost thousands in potential profits.

I guess it is a good bet that bitcoin will eventually exceed $1000 in the next few years. Might as well continue my high risk investing at this point (with my high risk allocated investing funds of course). Somehow my intuition is telling me that the price is going to go higher soon, but again this is just my intuition and I have no reasons why it should go higher. I also do not think any big news will come out soon. I mean, how can bitcoin really be pumped better than the china pump, a country with a large population and plenty of money using it. This is what scares me to think that it will slowly dwindle down.

I'm thinking it may eventually go back to $1000 because many people will hold out until that point. 



210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Volume Explained... on: December 25, 2013, 03:20:17 AM
Just looking for some clarity on this.

Volume:

Investopedia explains 'Volume Of Trade'

 Volume tells investors about the market's liquidity. Higher volume means higher liquidity and better order execution. When investors feel hesitant about the direction of the stock market, futures trading volume tends to increase. Volume also tends to be higher near the market's opening and closing times, and on Mondays and Fridays. It tends to be lower at lunchtime and before a holiday.

When investors feel hesitant about the direction of the stock market, futures trading volume tends to increase.
 - This is what I'm confused about... right now the overall feeling is unknown/hesitation about the direction but we are not showing increased volume, volume shows a decreased/low amount.

 - Investopedia states that the volume tends to increase, what does it mean for the market/trend when the volume is low in this unknown direction?

I'm trying to understand how for days we've had low/decreased volume yet the price has remained stable and/or increased slightly.

The bitcoin market volume is decreasing on the time of uncertainty because of the nature of the market and also the traders. People who are trading futures, are mostly people who make quick decisions based on "real reasons" about the value of stock. The bitcoin market is mostly manipulated by a relatively small group of people who have the power to make the price go up or down without any "real reason" and the market is sheepish enough that it will follow. That is why the bitcoin market will freeze on uncertainty because most are just waiting "what will the whales do", so they can go the same way.

Thanks Kaspar.

What benefits the whales more, Loweing the price so it's affordable and attractive to those who are not invested yet in btc and getting more ppl on-board or keeping it where it is and buying up all the btc they can before raising the price? ....I would say the first but if thats the case that would maybe indicate the whales are keeping it stable until some of the other big players that want to get in are given time to set up accounts and money verified before lowering the price so they can buy many for cheap. ....what would be the chance this is the scenario?


The attractiveness that whales depend on comes mostly through media. The increasing or decreasing of price comes from the quite simplistic pumping and dumping scheme. They are pumping until the boom will start to slow, and then they will begin dumping. The first critical point were the 1st and 5th december, with 1st being the "testing dump" to see if the dump would stimulate the market to go higher, and the 5th december dump was a real one where they started to take their money out of bitcoin. The smaller pumps and dumps are just a part of the bigger dump, because with the longer play they can sell with a better price then with one big flash crash dump.  BTC price will lower until there is a new framework built to support a new hype. A new geographical location, or new laws or usability options need to come out before the change of trend should be expected. When rises come out of think air, then they tend to fall into oblivion soon. Try to make your decisions based on things that really happen with bitcoin, not by how the market is rising or falling. And be careful, because with BTC unregulated market, there are a lot of fake news to make you believe in something that isn't real.
Keep in mind, that with BTC unregulated market, the whales can use every dirty trick in the book. Most of these tricks will get you real jailtime when playing them at the stock market, but with BTC market there aren't even any people to call them bad names for doing that.

Wow, someone who sees the market manipulation and the manipulators (or now called whales).

I've always noticed the market seems to be really manipulated and controlled (even back in 2011 I was big on that), and it makes total sense as someone with enough money and coins can easily do that.

You always pointed out the sheep in people, which I called lemmings. 97% of the population are lemmings in nature and can't think for themselves and so is the same with bitcoins.

The manipulators had the perfect opportunity recently to pump up the price to $1200 with all the news that was coming out. I saw that and even thought that It was the prefect time to pump. With the china news, us government legislation about bitcoins, etc. Perfect time to pump the market and get people thinking the price is going to 10,000 or even 1 million and 97% of the people on this forum believed it.

I even called it blind faith in some of my posts and I could not understand how people could be so blind and faithful about the price. This is the lemming nature in 97% of the people on here.
I was always part of the 3% who think for themselves and saw the bitcoin price for what it was, unsustainable.

Anyway, kkaspar is a very smart person and if he saw this all for what it is, he may be part of the 3% of the population who can think independently.

211  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's about to get ugly on mtgox on: December 24, 2013, 04:03:41 PM
And again: too many people who think that there are too many buyers wishful thinking on get bitcoins below 400

I don't really get this? So are there too many buyers?

Are you saying that there are many buyers or there are not and that is wishful thinking but since everybody thinks there are too many buyers nobody is selling? Or maybe everybody is buying?
212  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's about to get ugly on mtgox on: December 24, 2013, 03:21:36 PM
I am thinking that there is a good chance it will not crash.

Simply people who own bitcoins are just not selling and are just waiting for the price to go higher at this point. This is why volume is so low.

The demand is not there for expensive bitcoins, this is probably the reason why the price is not going higher.

I don't see anything changing, maybe a very slow decline to lower numbers but I doubt we will see a crash. I don't see any really bad news worse than china being out of the game.
213  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I bought a million Dogecoins on: December 21, 2013, 04:51:56 AM
I personally didn't buy dogecoins out of principal for it being a total scam coin and made to undermine the whole alt-coin market. However, I should have bought some early and was looking at it on the forum to buy it cheap before it was listed anywhere. I did notice that it had a lot of hype.

Maybe with time I will find out if that was a stupid decision not buying it on principal, even though I noticed how everyone was crazy about it.

It is marketed like crazy and I think they have people everywhere pumping it. Even someone posted a girl will sell her virginity for 100,000 doges.
214  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Another Cryptsy post, costing me a lot of money what can I do? on: December 20, 2013, 11:38:24 PM
I had a negative bitcoin balance after I made a bitcoin deposit. Now there is no self audit feature.

I am pissed here because I want to sell some stuff to turn it into bitcoins and than pull out of the market, wanted to do this earlier today. Cryptsy takes forever to respond to support tickets.

Now I am scared to sell anything because it would give me a positive bitcoin balance and they may not see the bitcoin deposit I made. Basically it may make a mess of everything because now you can clearly see my last trades were before I made that bitcoin deposit so how could I have a negative balance.

What should I do? Should I leave my account alone until they fix it or should I go ahead and sell and they should still work out what deposits were never posted?

This is really bullshit. And they also removed the self-audit feature which was there just a couple of days ago.
215  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Girl selling virginity for DOGE coin on: December 20, 2013, 11:33:46 PM
Their really pumping this doge coin in creative ways.
216  Economy / Speculation / Re: About to pop! on: December 20, 2013, 06:14:16 PM
I realized this a few hours ago that it looks like its going to drop. Price momentum upwards stopped, volume was low. Just looked weak.
Sold my few bitcoins I owned for just playing around with.

217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are we back in a bull market? on: December 20, 2013, 08:10:37 AM
I think its honestly going back up to $1000. The china news was priced in already and how could it be any worse. People still have $1000 dollars on their minds so anything under that is cheap.
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: New bull trap has been set... on: December 20, 2013, 05:48:33 AM
Jeez, I remember that time mt gox went to 0.01 per bitcoin, I think I was online at the time watching it. I remember all the people pissed since they didn't get their .01 bitcoins they bought. 
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: New bull trap has been set... on: December 20, 2013, 04:58:59 AM
The thing is it seems that people just sit on these coins, they were once $1200 so they will be worth $1200 again. Why sell?
Anybody who is intelligent enough to set up a wallet and actually buy bitcoins are probably well off financially and don't have to sell bitcoins.

This is the reason why the price just keeps going up and doesn't fall. Bitcoins are like a rare collectors item and the more people who get involved the rarer they become.

220  Economy / Speculation / Re: New bull trap has been set... on: December 20, 2013, 01:22:13 AM
accord01: where do you see the price falling down to?
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