If we get a new atm then the price of Bitcoin goes down of more than 70% again within 2 years, it will be very depressing but we would have a recent and known precedent of the price going back up so we can expect some nice support on the way down.

For the true believers, Bitcoin will always have value as long as it exists.

We will be happy to work or sell goods for 1 btc even if we know the price will move in the future.

The increase of true believers, of their revenue and of their networth drives the price up because as they get older, they get richer and as they get richer, they get more bitcoins. The process takes year and increases bitcoin's strengh and bottoms.

It's not a year or 2 bear market that will chase previous true believers and new true believers arrive in the community everyday and it's pushing the price higher.

1800 new btc are mined each day that a 3,81% inflation rate per annum according to https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward drop ETA: Sun, 24 May 2020 13:38:58 GMT according to http://www.thehalvening.com/

==>A lot of the 1800 btc end up beeing sold on exchanges, it's a small factor compared to how much new money is coming in and how many btc from holders are being sold.

As the price rises, the attention on bitcoin increase, it's more positive, more uses are possible, more people are in the money and happy. I think that as the price rises, some want to sell but holders notice we are in a bull market and hold even more because of fomo = fear of missing out. People on the side lines buy, traders go long, miners tend to sell less at first and the price skyrocks in what's still a relatively thin market.

Bitcoin is useful to digitally keep some wealth out of the official banking system.

Now that the FED is leaving the tightening rhetoric, us prices will soar, the dollar will crash, gold will go up.

Bitcoin is very likely to spike again.

Bitcoin dominance is at 55.8% so bitcoin is resisting more than alt currencies as a whole.

The long term case for Bitcoin is still here, the USD will go down as the FED will print to keep the US government promises and the Bitcoin believers are not capitulating so Bitcoin will be at 100 K$ within 4 years.

Some crypto will make it big.

Bitcoin is very decentralized from governments, useful and trusted so it has a lot of value and it's value should increase when the western financial systems will blow up.

At 20k$ I was a seller but the price is resisting nicely at 10k$, when the dollar will explode, it should go up tremendously, I am a buyer now :-)

I haven't try it yet and there is obviously third party risk involved.


Yes you eliminate the third party risk by storing bitcoins yourself on a hardware, paper wallet or a brain wallet even you still have a risk of losing your bitcoins through a mistake and you can still have them stolen. Having a small portion of your bitcoins invested is a personal choice many take to have a revenu in bitcoins.

Too thin of an analysis especially when the technical cap balloons the transaction fees and BTC can't be efficiently used to make small purchases. There is a need for a decentralized currency created by the market and not by the government and a lot of people give a lot of value a trust to Bitcoin but this value and trust could mostly shift to BCH or an other crypto.

On coinlend.org, yearly returns :

Token   Platform   Rate
 Santiment Bitfinex 78.05%
 US-Dollar Bitfinex 49.28%
 Litecoin Poloniex 28.39%
 Euro Bitfinex 24.79%
 Litecoin Bitfinex 21.39%
 US-Dollar Quoine 19.97%
 Factom Poloniex 13.58%
 Ripple Poloniex 12.17%
 Dash Bitfinex 6.82%
 Bitcoin Quoine 5.59%
 Ether Bitfinex 5.06%
 NEO Bitfinex 4.69%
 Bitcoin Bitfinex 4.58%

49.28%/year for US-D on bitfinex, why so much ?

My point was you jumped to conclusion saying I have no idea how money work. I am not advising to invest in freebitco but knowing what you can do with your bitcoins is of interest for me. Obviously there is a third party risk if you deposit your bitcoins on any website, especially if it's not incorporated in a country with higher accountability.

BTW, Freebitco pays daily a 4.08% of annual interest rate, not 4.08% per day. What do you do with your bitcoins ?

Most will agree it's likely we see a major correction within the next 2 years. Bitcoin has a lot of merit and strong believers but it needs to have a use AND it needs to beat the competition, neither are a given at this time.

On one hand, this conversation between Andreas Antonopoulos and Joe Rogan can easily make someone bullish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuoE5CXlIdY because Andreas emphasized the advantages in terms of privacy of having a decentralized digital global currency that is not owned by a nation or a company.

On the other hand, Max Reiser's mostly foolish arguments makes me bearish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IuXhlIbTVE : he mostly arbitrary choses that the price will be stable a bit before 100 K$ but if the price is stagnant for years, most people that bought to make a $ gain will sell because the best current use of bitcoin and the biggest reason why people buy and hold bitcoin will not be there anymore : keeping it to enjoy fiat currency gains. More people everyday are buying it for fear of missing on future gains and people who have it mostly keep their holding for even larger gains.

The more Bitcoin can be used to buy things, the more reason the price has not to come down. Bitcoin is very useful to hide value, keep it private and transfer it without being blocked by frontiers or government laws which is a great reason to have it for a lot of people, especially those being in countries where the bank system is bad or almost non existant and where the government is openly bad. But there are good alternatives to Bitcoin : Cash is still here, Gold, the Swiss Franc and other crypto such as BCH.

You have absolutely no idea what bitcoin or a currency is and you have no economic knowledge 

BCH seems promising, Bitcoin was sold as great for small payment, it's not anymore. For example, satoshidice now uses BCH.

Bitcoin has gone so far and is known and trusted by so many that it's easy to think it will remain a store of value for a lot of people. There will be huge swings in price though, it's hard to say how it will trade because it's a new market.

There is a third-party risk when you keep your bitcoins on a website, a lot of us want to avoid this risk but it's interesting to consider the options to invest a portion of your bitcoins holdings and get a positive return instead of having your bitcoins just sit in the wallet.

Just-dice was trusted and successfully returned gains to investors : you could invest in the site bankroll and play against the players with a 1% edge. You had third party risk and a gambling whale could make you lose money.

As of today, freebitco pays daily 4.08% of annual interest on any BTC you keep on the website and bitfinex pays you to lend the bitcoins for traders to short bitcoins, what do you think of these two options and what other options do you know ?

It's nice to offer 4.08% of annual interest paid daily even if there's a third party risk : referral link removed

If you had satoshis on freebitco when the BCH and BTG forks you can redeem them on the website.

Yes it can keep going up as long as people are willing to pay more for it but it will stop with the correct circonstances, it's very hard to say if the drop will be in a month or a year and from 8k or 40k but it has to happen if the use of bitcoins don't increase too much.

The longer the price stays relatively high, the stronger the price looks and we can keep having ATH, especially if the US Dollar is falling more and more rapidely in the meantime.

I would like to tell you my opinion about the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.

I feel I will tell you my opinion about the current Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.