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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Comparison to Apple (AAPL) shares on: July 12, 2011, 07:24:18 AM
apple makes profit.

end of discussion.
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? on: July 11, 2011, 07:17:20 PM

3) He and many other average Joe's buy for $2000 on Mtgox

god I hope Mtgox offers shortselling by then
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? on: July 11, 2011, 12:17:27 PM
let's hope people totally loose faith in bitcoin until then, but at the same time at least some real-world use of bitcoin emerges Cheesy
then I might consider buying some. I'll check every few month if the BTC price is close to 1$.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? on: July 11, 2011, 12:04:05 PM
was referring to now (7/2011) until 6/2012. 40%.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? on: July 11, 2011, 11:51:18 AM
that will not have a big influence: if many miners sell a huge amount btc, many people think that they have to buy then when it's cheap. like this, the cours will not collapse... only midterm cheaper

at current prices "many people" have to pay the miners 40 million dollars this year.
not including possible sells of previously hoarded coins (or, additional hoarding)

6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What programming language to learn? on: July 11, 2011, 11:38:59 AM
master C++.
you can learn almost any other language within an hour after you've done that. (except maybe functional languages like Haskell)
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? on: July 11, 2011, 11:33:48 AM
ask the miners.
everything depends on when they're cashing out (what they hoarded and the 40% inflation that bitcoin creates this year and is awarded to miners)
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin has positive effect on mainstream economy. on: July 08, 2011, 11:03:56 AM
A bubble is not trial and error, its not a discovery process. Its reactions to bad signals, and that is why the trial and error is not called malinvestment (you are getting information), but a lot of the results of the bubbles are indeed malinvestments, and could have been avoided if the price signals would not have been distorted.
Whether pricing signals are "distorted" is really subjective, as pricing might depend on estimates on information that is not known by anyone yet at the time of the investment such as rate of social adoption, political factors, scientific discoveries, and so on. I don't think there is such a thing as undistorted pricing signals as all. The world is a very uncertain place.



you agree without noticing it.

zero or negative interest rates (adjusted) are a signal that almost every investment is wortwhile, a signal everyone gets at the same time.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin has positive effect on mainstream economy. on: July 08, 2011, 10:12:51 AM
Quote
...and that's very speculative. what would the behaviour of human beings be.

But then, how can you compare? If the government is taking the money, the government is the one producing the investigation. But how can you claim that if left with the money the private sector would not have done better?
I'm not.
It's hard to claim either way, it's predicting human behaviour.

if it wasn't perceived as governments role to do research, maybe bill gates and others would start a research fund instead of inoculating africa (or whatever he's doing). who knows.

Quote
But this applies to everything. Even in non-boom times, a large part of investments is wasted. I've come to see it as a kind of decentralized, randomized discovery process. A boom/bubble is just a speedup of the normal rate at which this happens.
boom/bust in individual businesses or even sectors of the economy is natural.
synchronized boom/bust of the entire economy is caused by central banks. without central banks a boom in one sector would drain the resources of another sector and therefore provide a regulator.
people don't like to give up food for network equipment.

...ahm...bitcoin! just to stay on topic...
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin has positive effect on mainstream economy. on: July 08, 2011, 09:40:54 AM
What do we see? The USA is one of the biggest innovators in medicine and basically decimates the medical innovations coming from Europe (and yes, I know that there is some government involvement in the USA medicine investigation, but the comparation is still valid).
this is the worst example you could choose.
medicine in the US isn't private (as in unregulated free market) at all, especially not research. even the actual services are run by HMOs (so-called "private" insurance), and only for non-military, non-poor, non-public-sector-worker, adult-but-not-retired, and by (state) governments for everyone else.

Quote
What would have happened if you left those resources to the private sector?

...and that's very speculative. what would the behaviour of human beings be.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin has positive effect on mainstream economy. on: July 08, 2011, 08:52:18 AM
I know that's a common misconception in the age of "stimulus" programs, but generating jobs and spending isn't a positive effect per se.
remember all the jobs and network equipment purchases etc. generated by the dotcom bubble?

for now, bitcoin is a waste of resources (manpower, network, mining equipment...) with the potential of being useful in the future - paying off the resources used.
we'll see.
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: deepbit has 50.18 % now on: July 07, 2011, 03:29:48 PM
is there some technical reason why there must not be too many blocks / they must have a minimum size?

otherwise it seems to me it is a shortfall of bitcoin's design that so few blocks (1 in 10 minutes) are created and the reward is very high.
if generating blocks was easier (with less reward) there would be less incentive for pooling.
I guess(!) satoshi originally intended that each bitcoin client mines, not some large pools with high-end graphics cards.

if bitcoin is as successful as many here suspect, in a few years the 25 BTC you gain from generating a block will be like winning a lottery jackpot.
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I Will Buy ALL Of Your BTC You Want To Sell Me For $50 USD/Coin Through PayPal!! on: July 04, 2011, 11:25:04 AM
if a CC is (supposedly) lost, the CC company is responsible for the losses, not the marchant.
if they suspect any wrongdoing, you can deal with a lawsuit by a major company.
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I think we should ban those ponzi game post on this forum on: July 03, 2011, 07:10:12 PM
it's bad for the bitcoin community.

+1


yeah, let's try not to hurt that one diner in chicago, or wherever it was
15  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I think we should ban those ponzi game post on this forum on: July 03, 2011, 12:41:51 PM
I think we should ban those ponzi game post on this forum

I think we should ban those ponzi schemes like bitcoin











 Grin
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin too valuable to spend on: July 02, 2011, 04:00:50 PM
the thread was called "interest rates possible?" or something like it
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Anyone used Bitmunchies.com? on: July 02, 2011, 03:45:18 PM
the webshop used there is osCommerce btw.
very easy to set up, you can configure a new currency (like BTC) without changing any code.
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin too valuable to spend on: July 02, 2011, 03:41:47 PM

So exactly how does one create more than 21 million bitcoins?

how does one "create" a growing M3 while M1 was basically constant for years, just like the 21 million coins whould be constant?
look up the definitions of money, fractional reserve banking, money multiplier.
as I've said, I don't want to repeat that discussion.
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Someone needs to make on: July 02, 2011, 03:29:15 PM
what do other businesses do, when someone uses a stolen credit card?

if you want to be reasonably safe, you could send an activation code by regular mail on first order to reduce fraud.
that's 2 days wait for your first order, and instantly after.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Someone needs to make on: July 02, 2011, 02:56:14 PM
paypal isnt the only CC processor around. the chargeback argument isn't really one either.
all businesses have to deal with that.

a serious business, a credit card processor, and a debt collection agency and you're good to go.
of course, why would a serious business get involved with bitcoin at this point...
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