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November 14, 2024, 05:44:30 PM *
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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed Cuts rates at 50 bps today on: September 20, 2024, 05:00:24 PM
Yeah everything is pumping due to this rate cut. Look at the stock market. Look at the Gold market. And look at crypto.

Its funny because we assumed it was a sell the news type of event. Where we got the rate cut, we pumped but closed the day on the low. And later on we started to pump again. Its also strange how the 10 Year yield is not decreasing from the time of the time. Maybe it was oversold.

I think we will get a huge move this weekend due to this news. We also have Blackrock CEO pumping bitcoin saying that its a flight to safety during uncertain times as this. I think if Trump wins in November then we might break ATH sometime around then. It should sure be an interesting time for any risk-on assets like stocks and crypto.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: are you have Strategy How to sell my house fast? on: September 20, 2024, 04:58:04 PM
Honestly I am going to give you advice you might not like. But this is with experience of having many friends who had trouble selling their real estate. If you put it on the market and you dont get a single viewing in a week or two. Your price is simple way too high. Sure there was times of the year like during Christmas or doing some cold season like in Canada where the market is dead but most of the time the house should get viewings and offers.

If you arent getting any viewings or offers. Your price is simple way too high. Too many of my friends are like "I paid $400K for my house and I dont want to take a loss by selling less than $400K" even though similar houses in their area are selling for $350K or less. Sure you can list a house like this and many realtors will be happy to list it, but it wont sell.

People wont overpay unless there is low supply and even then if there was less supply, nobody will overpay by $50K when they can get the same house accross the street for less. If its not selling then you need to reduce the price.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi-era wallet (Jan 2009) moves 50 BTC on: September 20, 2024, 04:53:22 PM
Wow. This is crazy. This was only block 2247. I think this is the oldest coinburn I have seen ever.

This was on January 29 2009 and the first block ever was on January 8 2009. Wonder who else could of been mining around this time. Maybe it was that HDD guy who threw it away.

This is proof that all those estimates about "bitcoins lost forever" are inaccurate because you got transactions like this happening which many assumed it was a long lost private key. Many are estimating that around 3 Million bitcoins are lost this way but as you can see, these coins can wake up at anytime. Even Satoshi coins themselves could one day get spent. There is no proof that he lost his private keys or that he passed away.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin hits $64K: What will October bring for BTC? on: September 20, 2024, 04:48:45 PM
This rally is most likely due to the higher than expected rate cuts. Stocks are hitting all time highs and so is Gold. There is also Silver which is trading higher and higher even though it hasn't broken its previous ATH yet. However this is an indication that the market is becoming risk-on because with lower rates people are taking money out of market funds and they are putting it to assets where they will generate more revenue.

The issue with this is that if people start to overbid on houses, cars, watches and what-not then the inflation cycle will repeat and we might get higher inflation numbers than before and Powell will need to hike even higher and higher. And the debt for US is going to accelerate at an even steeper pace. So lets hope he made the right decision to cut by 50 bps.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BlackRock lays out why to invest in ‘flight to safety’ asset on: September 20, 2024, 04:46:00 PM
Yeah I find it very very strange why he is pumping his BTC ETFs when he has tons and tons of other investment ETFs out there. He seems as crazy about Bitcoin as Saylor pretty much.

Who knows why? Maybe its because there hasnt been any outflows in his ETF. Once someone buys his BTC ETF they hold it there long term. The longer they hold it the more money they make in the fees. So he is catering to those who investment timeline is 10 years and after 10 years, Blackrocks revenue from this one ETF will be massive.
6  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed Cuts rates at 50 bps today on: September 19, 2024, 04:25:03 PM
So yesterday they cut rates, and the market was a sell the news type of event. It hit a new ATH and then it closed at the lows of the day. Today the market gaps up and dow jones and sp500 all enter new ATH. Crypto is rallying and so is Gold and Silver.

Honestly I would becareful. This might be a trap. If the market stays in this area, then its a safe long but I have a feeling that the market makers know that everybody is taking money out of their bonds and putting into equities and they are expecting a boom. And shortly after there might be a huge dump. Similar to what happened in 2008. I dont trust this move at all.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Trump will compete directly with Bitcoin on: September 19, 2024, 04:22:15 PM
I dont like this either. I dont know why he is launching a token. There is no gaurantee that he will even win, if he loses the election, most likely Gensler will come after him regarding this token.

Honestly I think his kid got hooked on crypto after he endorsed it and it was his kids idea. However this is not good for his political career at all.

I heard that its initially only going to be sold to institutions, so thats a plus. However dont be surprised if after he loses the election this token ends up losing 99% of its value. If he wins the election then it actually stands a chance at succeeding.
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Donald J. Trump wins, Bitcoin will be better than fine. on: September 19, 2024, 03:37:40 AM
Apparently Trump has sent a bitcoin payment to pay for some cheeseburgers in New York. There is a pub called Pubkey and it was before his Rally in New York he attended. There are videos and photos all over twitter showing him sending the first bitcoin transaction as a president. Then he gave a bunch of burgers to many people in the restauraunt.

Its funny, he wanted to call them Crypto Burger but someone shouted "No they are Bitcoin Burgers". I thought that was pretty funny. Either way its a good sign seeing this. Really hope he wins the election in November. Itll be better for regulation and as long as Gensler is removed, then it should be good for the future of crypto in USA.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Email scam demanding bitcoin - fooling the weak. on: September 19, 2024, 03:34:25 AM
Yeah that is pretty scary. Especially since they send a photo of your house and unless you recognise it was a Google streetview photo you are going to freak out and assume they live in your city and you might be in danger.

I heard the ones where they just email you and threaten but didnt think they would send along photos of your place of residence. The things scammers will do is crazy these days and downright scary.

Hopefully not too many people fall for these scams but I am sure some will because they wont want to put their family at risk.
10  Economy / Economics / Re: Raise your expectations, but lower your anticipations on: September 18, 2024, 11:08:00 PM
This is generally how it is in life.

Whenever you are desperate for something, usually it never works out. You never get it or you get what you dont want. The opposite is true. When you set your expectation low, usually you will be surprised and be happy with the result.

Thats why the more you push for something, usually the market pushes you back further. But if you take your time and don't rush, you will be surprised and be happy with that results. Right now we have no idea what will happen with the markets. It will be very volatile after this fed cut and also the election will bring lots of volatility. So if crypto goes up, its good but if it enters are bear market you should also be prepared for that.

11  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Market Manipulation! Is it real? on: September 18, 2024, 11:06:12 PM

Let's take, for instance, when the German government moved their bitcoin holdings into exchange wallets. There was a panic that such movement caused in the market, and many people, out of fear, sold out their holdings. During that period before they finished dumping all their holdings, there was a drop in the market. If there were some other parties in play that wanted to acquire large volumes of bitcoin using small amounts, they could always make use of such an opportunity.

I dont think this is what market manipulation is. Market manipulation would of been if they secretly sold or went short bitcoin and then later on they went in public and they said they will dump all those coins. They had those coins for a while, just like FTX, just like MtGox and people knew that eventually they would sell them. Same with US Government, we all know one day they will sell another batch of Bitcoins.

So unless some government official, goes shorts on their own personal account or they leak the news to some trading firm in secret and that firm goes short and then later they make an announcement that they are dumping their bitcoins, then its manipulation. But what they did so far doesn't really count as manipulating the market.
12  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: To day traders, what percentage do you think is better to make as profit daily on: September 18, 2024, 10:59:12 PM
Let us say you have $5000 in your account. You only move $500 to an exchange for day trading which is 10% of your money. I think many traders can use 10% for trading, although they can lose it if because trading is very risky.

You use 1x for bitcoin or less than 1x by not using all the $500 to trade at once. Let us say just $150 for altcoins.

What percentage of interest do you think would be good for you to close the position?

I think Arthur Hayes, the CEO of Bitmex, said that although they have 100x leverage, most traders actually only used like 10x or 12x or something like that.

Most traders use 10x leverage due to counterparty risk. Say they have $1,000,000 in capital, they rather just deposit $100,000 to the exchange and use 10x leverage and just deposit/withdraw as the trade moves against/towards profit and they only can lose $100K if the exchange goes bust.

I think this is the real reason why people use leverage, mostly to counter any risks of the exchange going insolvent.
13  Economy / Economics / Fed Cuts rates at 50 bps today on: September 18, 2024, 10:56:32 PM
I am sure you heard how the fed cut rates at 50 bps today, this is a surprise because Powell was usually dovish however this 50 bps cut seems aggressive since the US economy is fairly strong and there was a strong 25 bps consensus just until last week.
 
Now all of a sudden we get a 50 bps rate cut. Remember Sept 18 2008, we got a 50 bps rate cut also, and the rest is history.

What is your theory on why this massive cut was necessary? I think there is something in the data that suggests the economy is not as strong as most people think.
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: The Importance of Having a Trading Mentor on: September 16, 2024, 08:46:15 PM
Believe me when I was new to trading I also sell for those scams. People saying that they are teaching you how to trade not because they need the money but because they care about your success and that is obviously not true. The only people that care about your success is perhaps your family and close friends not some stranger you meet on the internet.

Most of these trading courses and seminars are aimed at people who don't know any better. They see that there are many crypto millionaires out there driving Ferrari's and they think they can live the same life style. Hence they invest in a computer setup, fund their trading account and join some trading academy. Only later to find out that its not easy as it seams. And you rarely get a refund for these courses. They are typically final sale.
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How can I stop trade Against the market? on: September 16, 2024, 08:43:34 PM
Well there is no easy answer to this question. IF there was then everybody would be sitting at home and day trading and then trading wouldn't exist people everybody would make money and nobody would lose money. If nobody loses money then trading can't exist. You need someone to lose money so you can make money.

You can try and use indicators, or fundamental analysis however what you need is experience to know which way the market will go. Stock market is similar. It opens upwards, people chase some longs and then it reverses. And once it reverses people take a loss and go short and it reverses once again. Stopping them out two times. And people get frustrated and revenge trade and lose even more money. This I guess is just how these markets work. No manual out there on how to beat the market you just need trading experience.
16  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin would have averted this painful loss, shame on fiat on: September 16, 2024, 07:52:51 PM
I;ve had similar issues also with bank transfers. In my opinion the worst is a bank wire because you need to pay a fee both ways. You pay to send this type of wire and you also pay to receive a bank wire. So if you are sending a small amount, like less than $10K, then its a huge fee. There is no avoiding that. Honestly best never to send any small wires.

Similar situation in bitcoin. When fees are high, its also not wise to send any small amounts. Right now fees are low but there are times when you end up paying $10 just to send a single UTXO. And Ethereum is worst at times. I remember during the conjestion days having to spend $50 just to move 1 stablecoin. And their onchain swaps were worst, when I had to pay $75-$100 just for a simple ETH-USDT trade.
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What most beginners don't get about Bitcoin on: September 16, 2024, 07:49:43 PM
I think the end game will be the same but you need to understand that the day that Kamala harris wins the race, it will be a bearish time for crypto. For at least a few months. If Trump wins then it will be the complete opposite.

Yes the presidents in the past had little to do with bitcoins performance, however we need less regulation and not more. If we get more regulation then less people will want to get involved with crypto. Look at how difficult it is to make a exchange account due to all these regulations, people will just skip crypto all together unless the rules are relaxed and that will only happen under a Trump administration.
18  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Market Manipulation! Is it real? on: September 16, 2024, 02:42:03 AM
People have been saying certain stocks have been manipulated for years. Whether its true or not is hard to prove.

Just today people are accusing Coinbase for providing IOUs instead of buying actual BTC to fund the BTC ETFs. Again whether this is true or not is hard to prove. People think that since the flows are positive for BTC it should be at $100K by now but its not, so they think there is some manipulation going on.

Whether the market is small or big, it wont take a big player to manipulate a certain crypto or stock anyway they want. 
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What if Gamblers had to go to Gambling school to learn? on: September 13, 2024, 03:42:30 PM
Well they do have something similar if you go to gambling anonymous. They basically teach you the dangers of gambling and how easy it is to become an addict. In reality there are way more alcoholics than gamblers out there. So there is no point in having a course in high school to teach about the dangers of gambling and how you can become an addict.

I think most become addicts if they gamble early in life and they win big. They get accustomed to all that money at a young age that when they grow older and need more money, they will keep gambling to get more of it. But if it was beginners luck then obviously they won't make large sums of money again and will just go in a deep hole where they get into debt because they had to borrow money to gamble.
20  Economy / Gambling / Re: [scam attempt] Nebova asking for a deposit? on: September 13, 2024, 03:39:09 PM
Yeah this is like the oldest scam out there.

They basically give you some free crypto to gamble with, then they let you win and if you won big like $10000 or something, they know you will be tempted to withdraw some of it, but to withdraw they want a small deposit. Most people will deposit a small amount to withdraw a large amount.

Even if it wasn't for this deposit scam, just google the website or go to bitcointalk gambling section and see if its a commonly used gambling site, if its not here then just dont go there.
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