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1041  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: April 17, 2013, 11:41:46 PM
Ok, GREEN LIGHT!  We have the most pronounced Weekend Dip opportunity since the weekend following the Pirate mess in August 2012.


 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-3zeg2013-04-18ztgCzm1g10zm2g25

The current 7 day high is dramatically below the previous 7-day high a week ago today.   We are, in the short term, in a downtrend.

The Weekend Dip Strategy, when there is a green light, has had a track record of producing profits more often than not. 

The strategy is to sell at this point in time, Wednesday evening (western timezones) / Thursday morning (eastern timezones) with the intention of buying back at a lower level at some point over the weekend. 

This pattern originated long ago when there was essentially no funds moving to the exchanges during the weekend, however selling would continue unabated. During a downtrend, this selling would, pretty consistently, be stronger than the buying.   As a result frequently there would be gains of a few percent, or really large gains like 30%.   Now with Bitcoin volatility that level of rise or drop is something that frequently occurs, but with a green light the pattern seems to very rarely incur a loss, and then other weekends had gains ranging from moderate (couple percent) to really decent levels. 

The right time to buy back is after a selloff seems to be reversing, pulling back up about half from the bottom of the selloff from when the starting mark occurred.  Right now at this moment the "starting mark" is $93 on Mt. Gox. 

Remember, this is just a post about a pattern that has repeated in the past, and is not a suggestion that the pattern will continue this particular weekend.  There have been a few times where there never was a dip and instead the exchange rate rallied throughout the weekend.
1042  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: bitfloor needs your help! on: April 17, 2013, 10:35:02 PM
From http://BitFloor.com:

Quote
All trading is currently suspended.

I am sorry to announce that due to circumstances outside of our control BitFloor must cease all trading operations indefinitely. Unfortunately, our US bank account is scheduled to be closed and we can no longer provide the same level of USD deposits and withdrawals as we have in the past. As such, I have made the decision to halt operations and return all funds.

Over the next days we will be working with all clients to ensure that everyone receives their funds. Please be patient as we process your request.

- Roman
founder - bitfloor.com


Related threads:

Bitfloor trading suspended
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179198.

Bitfloor Shutting Down?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179152.0

Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17."
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179168.0

bitfloor issues?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.0
1043  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitfloor Shutting Down? on: April 17, 2013, 10:32:23 PM
Related threads:

bitfloor issues?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.0

bitfloor needs your help!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.msg1868333#msg1868333

Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17."
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179168.0

Permanently, apparently:
   
Bitfloor trading suspended
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179198.0
1044  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: bitfloor issues? on: April 17, 2013, 10:30:06 PM
It's dead, Jim.

Related threads:

bitfloor needs your help!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.msg1868333#msg1868333

Bitfloor Shutting Down?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179152.0

Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17."
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179168.0

Bitfloor trading suspended
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179198.0
1045  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bitfloor trading suspended on: April 17, 2013, 10:27:57 PM
Related threads:

bitfloor issues?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.0

bitfloor needs your help!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.msg1868333#msg1868333

Bitfloor Shutting Down?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179152.0

Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17."
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179168.0
1046  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17." on: April 17, 2013, 10:27:05 PM

Permanently, apparently:

   
Bitfloor trading suspended
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179198.0
1047  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Help... Mt Gox has lost my money? on: April 17, 2013, 10:19:50 PM
The funds must've come back to gox. I sent more funds using that option, and it came from the same address.

Am I wrong? Am I missing something?

It's possible, but seems to me the help desk staff might be new, and are the ones who don't understand the system

They went back to an address that Mt. Gox controls.  A normal withdrawal from an E-Wallet account is different from a withdrawal that comes from a local wallet.  So normally a person withdrawing from Mt. Gox to SatoshiDICE will lose any payout because that payout goes to some other Mt. Gox customer's account.  In this case, the address 1LNWw6yCxkUmkhArb2Nf2MPw6vG7u5WG7q is for Mt. Gox's own account and not that of one of its customers.  Therefore, you are correct -- Mt. Gox has full control of that money.

But whose money is it?

Well, this is a recurring topic.  There has been before a scammer tag given to when funds were sent to the wrong person (verifiable externally) and then that person that received the funds wouldn't send them back.      I don't see how an exchange refusing to return funds it received by accident is any different.

Another exchange, Bitcoin-Central, has a simple check for withdrawals and will not allow withdrawals from their E-Wallet to any SatoshiDICE address.  

Mt. Gox has been asked to implement a similar filter but it appears there is still no restriction on withdrawing to SatoshiDICE addresses nor any other consumer protection.

Now had you not clicked Green Address, then you would have been stuck because there's no way for you to know who received the funds, and Mt. Gox is not responsible if the person who did receive the funds then withdrew them.  But a Green Address is a different animal.  You have a valid claim, in my opinion.
1048  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17." on: April 17, 2013, 10:02:33 PM
Related threads:

bitfloor issues?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.0

bitfloor needs your help!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.msg1868333#msg1868333

Bitfloor Shutting Down?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179152.0
1049  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17." on: April 17, 2013, 10:00:51 PM
hehe, thats going to skyrocket the price on bitfloor for sure Grin Everybodys gone try to get there monney out...no better way than Bitcoin

Well, for those of us that didn't learn of it earlier today like some others, their market was closed when this news was learned.



1050  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitfloor Shutting Down? on: April 17, 2013, 09:45:35 PM
Related threads:

bitfloor issues?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179135.0

bitfloor needs your help!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.msg1868333#msg1868333

Bitflloor: " Trading will be suspended at 6 PM EST on 2013.04.17."
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179168.0
1051  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Forked block chain on: April 17, 2013, 08:22:22 PM
So the question is if there is anything that stops me from doing that since I am branching off the original chain.

When you go off on your own fork you can do whatever you want, including changing the rules for the block reward subsidy.  But again, that only exists on your own fork.  It doesn't matter if you start with your own genesis block or extend off of a bitcoin block.  

You would want to configure a node to relay transactions received on port 8333 so that they also get relayed to your fork.   Some of those transactions will be valid even on your fork but over time more and more transactions that are valid Bitcoin transactions will not confirm on your fork because they include an invalid INPUT as far as your fork is concerned.

The real risk is someone using a copy of their Bitcoin wallet.dat (or the private keys from that wallet.dat) with your fork -- the coins pre-fork are still valid spends on the Bitcoin blockchain as well as on your fork.  So it would be way to easy to lose money by accidentally sending valuable pre-fork coins thinking they are only as valuable as the post-fork coins.

Ya, that would get ugly in a hurry.
1052  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Forked block chain on: April 17, 2013, 06:48:13 PM
If I want to grow a new private branch of the blockchain, can I do that and change the rules for block rewards? (with a rewritten client)  If this has been discussed previously I'd be thankful to know.

Are you asking about a hard fork that lets all existing bitcoins be spent on nodes running your rewritten client?  Yes, that's possible.  But blocks mined by your clients would not be accepted by any peer nodes running the Bitcoin-Qt/bitcoind client.

If you wanted to communicate among other peers who want to be on the fork with you then you could change the port number, set up your own dnsseed server and have your own little forked chain running, sure.  Knock yourself out ... if you have 400 Ghash/s (equivalent to nearly 7 Avalon ASICs) you'll get one block mined per day, so nearly a week for a transaction to reach six confirmations.  [Though you could edit this revised client to have it manually reset difficulty as-of a certain block]
1053  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Exchange legalities on: April 17, 2013, 06:12:48 PM
I mean, you can't just go open your own currency exchange or forex trading business without some sort of various oversight, licensing, etc? There are all sorts of government regulations and agencies above forex sites like Oanda, for instance. And if bitcoin really is a currency, then how is setting up an exchange any different?

I can just go out an open a store that buys and sells baseball cards without some sort of various oversight and licensing. 

Are bitcoins different from baseball cards?

The are not prepaid access ("stored value"), according to FinCEN.

If you are providing exchange to and from fiat, FinCEN recently released guidance on that.

If you are holding other peoples dollars, there are already regulations that address that as well.

If you are seriously thinking of opening an exchange, there are others that have done it that might be able to provide some advice.    At a minimum, you'll need some capital to cover the legal fees in getting started.
1054  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Double Spending and Confirmations Myths on: April 17, 2013, 05:34:11 PM
We would know if someone has more than 50% hashpower
Myth.
An attacker with more than 50% hashpower could be mining his own chain and not announcing it to the network (from the last checkpoint in bitcoind). As his chain will be longer, when he announces it will immediately propagate and override the current chain.

There are two approaches, too.  The March 11th hard fork was essentially a friendly 51% attack.  The "attack" (the switch from the longest chain to the other side of the fork) didn't occur until long after transactions had confirmed post-fork.
 - http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/47048259653

Then there is the stealth attack where the miner with 51% has been mining and not releasing blocks as they are mined.

Double spending
  - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Double_spending
1055  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Ask about Bitcoin database on: April 17, 2013, 07:46:24 AM
AFAIK Bitcoin version 0.8.1 uses Berkeley Database. How it uses this DB? Bitcoin not need install database from from oracle.com.I hear that new Bitcoin change to Google database, only Wallet stay with Berkeley DB.

With BitcoinQt/bitcoind v0.8.x, the only BDB database is the wallet.dat.   All prior versions used BDB for the blockchain and other databases as well.  The client has statically linked everything so there is no installation of the database.

Beginning with v0.8.0 was LevelDB for the blockchain and everyrthing else other than wallet.dat


 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Data_directory#Directory_Contents
1056  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Looking for miner in LA/SF for bbc news film "with an elaborate rig". on: April 17, 2013, 07:39:53 AM
try to determine how they are going to spin it before you agree

Good point.    After that Bloomberg $150,000/day in electricity nonsense (which has been refuted, with the real number being more likely under $50K and dropping quickly thanks to ASIC), portraying bitcoin the way bubbleboy sees it is one likely aim:

in this scenario mining of bitcoins would suck a full 5 to 15% percent of the national electricity production, depending on the capital ratio.

I don't want to split hairs, but if the sheer order of magnitude of these numbers don't concern you, then you might suffer from the modern day version of the gold fever. There's just about no chance in hell a democratic society will allow such a behemoth to live (only to be subjected to the feudal whims of the early adopters that happened to be in the right forum 20 years ago, I might add).
1057  Bitcoin / Meetups / Re: SoCAL BITCOINERS Poll: Where to meet??? on: April 17, 2013, 06:26:50 AM
FYI,

Looking for miner in LA/SF for bbc news film "with an elaborate rig".
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178615.0
1058  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Looking for miner in LA/SF for bbc news film "with an elaborate rig". on: April 17, 2013, 06:26:01 AM
Are you a miner? Do you know anyone with an elaborate mining rig in LA or the Bay Area?"

Well, there was a fair amount of GPU mining in the SoCal area but as "halving day" approached nearly all the ones I'm aware of or have heard from have sold off their hardware.   The cost of electricity in SoCal is high enough that almost nobody was expecting GPUs could still be profitable for mining.  I'm not aware of any miners in the area with an ASIC to show off.  

There also seems to be a reluctance to admit to any significant amount of mining capacity.  I get it ...  nobody advertises how much gold and silver they have nor that they have coffee cans of it buried in the back yard either.  

So, ... there might be the requirement that the reporter not name names and pixelize/alter faces and voices.
1059  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-04-15 Jim Rogers: Gold Drop Partially Caused by Bitcoin Drop on: April 17, 2013, 06:07:41 AM
That is crazy!

I'm trying to think of the scenario for this.  Since bitcoin was about $30 at the end of February, a crash to the $50s would only impact those who bought in March and early April.  Those into both bitcoin and gold are probably not the kind to be leveraged much and there aren't many ways to obtain leverage with Bitcoin to begin with. 

So the price of Bitcoin reverses and the person now has less net wealth, sells some gold to raise cash as previous cushion went into bitcoins?    I'm having a hard time seeing that happen to any significant degree.   But if Jim Rogers is talking about this there must be some of it happening that he knows of. 

Now if he instead had said about rotation from gold to bitcoins, then that is something I'ld believe.  Like how some amount of money that used to go into gold is now going into bitcoins instead.  And without that buying of gold there was nothing else to hold the price of gold up against those shorting it.
1060  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Need advice on trading with ecurrencyzone.com on: April 17, 2013, 05:48:41 AM
Does anyone know how reliable they are, has anyone here dealt with them before?

Here's a recent report of trading through them:

Anyone tested this?
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178585.msg1861260#msg1861260
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