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1201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ways to Short BTC/USD on: April 08, 2013, 08:25:24 PM
Don't know how reliable it is or who the owner is, but I used it yes, to short a little bitcoins from $98 as a hedge for the main position. It worked as expected (i.e, margin call when prices moved above 140 Smiley ).

Yup, leverage is a bitch.  Now if the exchange rate drops back down below $98 you have no hedge left and have direct exposure again.


Simply sell your BTC, and pretend you're going long the dollar.


If you are going to do that and don't need the cash right now ... there is a high level of contango so that gives a way to sell and lock in a certain exchange rate.

So let's say using the example above BTC/USD was $90 and BUM3 (June 14th 2013 settlement) was $98 as you said.    With 1 BTC to short, you could sell 10 BUM3 contracts and essentially have essentially zero exposure to margin call.

So let's say BTC/USD on June 14th is $140.   You then have about 0.7 BTC remaining on June 14th but the exchange rate at that time is $140 so you can sell  those 0.7 BTC and get $98.    But if the exchange rate drops to $70, you then have a little over 1.4 BTC, which at BTC/USD $70 can be sold for ... $98.   

So instead of selling today at the spot market you can sell futures contracts and gain a nice little profit from contango.
1202  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: [Solved] Please move: "additional script for finding lost passphrase" on: April 08, 2013, 07:33:56 PM
Without your script, I probably wouldn't have recovered my wallet.

Great to see access to another wallet saved!  There's going to be a growing need for someone to offer this service commercially.
1203  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is the deal with hoarding? on: April 08, 2013, 06:42:26 PM
So it appears that the impression is that hoarders are hurting Bitcoin because we are not using it as its intended purpose, as a currency.

Which is only a problem when instead of hoarding these speculators turn into dumpers.   If the coins were mostly used in commerce for purchases, then there would be less volatility based on whatever the response is to the next news article on Bitcoin.     But when the (temporary) price top is reached and the exchange rate direction turns south -- those hoarders all stop hoarding and race to the exits.  Some will have made it out with plenty of gains, others roughly break-even, and the last ones who bought will see losses, sometimes heavy.

Now if the merchant can set prices in dollars and uses a payment processor who converts all bitcoin revenues to dollars at the spot rate at the time of sale (less the conversion fee), then the merchant can be pretty much agnostic about the exchange rate (though 10% swings in a day mean delays simply in waiting the hour for payment to confirm before the coins can be sold is something that will eat into profits)

But if the exchange rate is dropping and the hoarders start dumping, they will also be using their coins making spend purchases.

So bitcoin wins either way thanks to hoarding.   When the exchange rate is on the way up hoarding causes the exchange rate to rise which attracts others to buy bitcoins causing them to become familiar with buying bitcoins and using them in transactions.   When the exchange rate is headed down bitcoins get spent with merchants causing it to gain traction as a payment method.
1204  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] bitaddress.org Safe JavaScript Bitcoin address/private key on: April 08, 2013, 05:54:07 PM
1. If i generate an address offline by going to the page, disconnecting wifi and generating a new address is this address now good to go?

Depending on whether or not your system is compromised.   Let's say you have malware that does a screen shot a couple times each second and uploads next time you reconnect the images of QR codes it snagged?

[Update: The solution is to use a LiveOS, i.e., boot to an operating system you know was not tampered with.   Then while offline load the static .html page that was originally obtained from bitaddress.org and verified using the sha1sum to be the same release as from github or from the site.]

2. How do i check the balance on the address?

Blockchain.info will show transactions where that address was used.

3. How do i move the balance from there to another address?

You need to import the private key somewhere.  

Bitcoin-Qt from the debug console has a way to import private key.
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/How_to_import_private_keys

Blockchain.info/wallet provides an import private key method.

Using a mobile, EasyWallet.org has "one touch" scanning to do this.

Also Mt. Gox has the ability to redeem a private key in which they sweep the funds into your Mt. Gox exchange account.
1205  Economy / Gambling / Re: [BITLOTTO] Mar 1 draw over $2000 or 50BTC! Tickets now 0.1 BTC for Apr 5 on: April 08, 2013, 05:39:07 PM

Funds have now moved.

[Update: And the domain was just renewed another year.   Ughh.]
1206  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Research Paper: Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin-Exchange Ris on: April 08, 2013, 11:56:59 AM
by Tyler Moore and Nicolas Christin
Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin-Exchange Risk [Short Paper]

Presented at Financial Cryptography and Data Security 2013
Seventeenth International Conference, April 1–5, 2013, Okinawa, Japan


 - http://fc13.ifca.ai/proc/1-2.pdf
 - http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffc13.ifca.ai%2Fproc%2F1-2.pdf  <-- Web browser view using Google Docs

 - http://fc13.ifca.ai/slide/1-2.pdf
 - http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffc13.ifca.ai%2Fslide%2F1-2.pdf  <-- Web browser view using Google Docs


Quote
Abstract:
We study the risk investors face from Bitcoin exchanges, which convert between Bitcoins and hard currency.
[...]
An exchange’s transaction volume indicates whether or not it is likely to close. Less popular exchanges are more likely to be shut than popular ones. We also present a logistic regression showing that popular exchanges are more likely to suffer a security breach.
1207  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Research Paper: Evaluating User Privacy in Bitcoin on: April 08, 2013, 11:42:30 AM
by Elli Androulaki, Ghassan Karame, Marc Roeschlin, Tobias Scherer and Srdjan Capkun
Evaluating User Privacy in Bitcoin

Presented at Financial Cryptography and Data Security 2013
Seventeenth International Conference, April 1–5, 2013, Okinawa, Japan

 - http://fc13.ifca.ai/proc/1-3.pdf
 - http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffc13.ifca.ai%2Fproc%2F1-3.pdf  <-- Web browser view using Google Docs

 - http://fc13.ifca.ai/slide/1-3.pdf
 - http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffc13.ifca.ai%2Fslide%2F1-3.pdf  <-- Web browser view using Google Docs


Quote
Abstract:
We evaluate the privacy that is provided by Bitcoin (i) by analyzing the genuine Bitcoin system and (ii) through a simulator that faith-fully mimics the use of Bitcoin within a university. In this setting, our results show that the profiles of almost 40% of the users can be, to a large extent, recovered even when users adopt privacy measures recommended by Bitcoin. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that comprehensively analyzes, and evaluates the privacy implications of Bitcoin.
1208  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-04-07 New York Times - Bubble or no virtual Bitcoins show real worth on: April 08, 2013, 11:23:50 AM
it's in today's PRINT EDITION of NYT.

It's going to be an interesting week.
1209  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-04-07 Forbes.com - Four Reasons Bitcoin Is Worth Studying on: April 08, 2013, 11:09:22 AM
Quote
In the wake of last month’s fork, the elites in the Bitcoin community effectively changed the rules in a matter of hours.

The article's author doesn't specify what rules changed.  The rule that was not followed was that miners always extend the longest chain.  When BTC Guild decided to abandon the v0.8 client and mine using v0.7, that wasn't a "rule change".   That was an operational change.  The developers really had no way to force that switch to happen other than to suggest the consequences if the switch back to v0.7 were to not happen.

From the logs of the first minutes after the block delta was identified as being not a problem isolated to a few people but instead a v0.8 vs. pre-v0.8 hard fork scenario, it was the BTC Guild operator who saw that Mt. Gox was using a pre-v0.8 client.  

The "elites" didn't have the power.   Gavin nor any other developer had the power to "change the rules".  BTC Guild didn't even have power to change the rules (i.e., to force everyone still on v0.7 to go with v0.8 ).

No ... the decider was ...  what side of the fork was Mt. Gox on.  

Mt. Gox currently serves as the economic majority.  Whatever for Mt. Gox was on, that's the side whose newly mined coins have value.  Mt. Gox used a pre-v0.8 client.  Therefore, mining a v0.8 client was yielding worthless coins.   It was the Mt.Gox tail that wagged the BTC Guild dog.     If Mt. Gox was on v0.8 I would bet the other merchants, miners and users that hadn't yet upgraded would be quickly alerted to install a patch that adjusted the settings so the locking issue wouldn't happen.

Here's a post on the hard fork:

Bitcoin Lied, Confirmed Transactions Died
Is there a lesson to be learned from the March 11th hard fork?
 - http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/47048259653
1210  Bitcoin / Press / Re: NEW articles in Press Forum on: April 08, 2013, 10:45:43 AM
2013-04-07 Forbes.com - Four Reasons Bitcoin Is Worth Studying

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170270.0
1211  Bitcoin / Press / 2013-04-07 Forbes.com - Four Reasons Bitcoin Is Worth Studying on: April 08, 2013, 10:44:38 AM
Timothy B. Lee writes Four Reasons Bitcoin Is Worth Studying

Quote
Even if you think the current value of of more than $140 is a bubble, it’s clear that Bitcoin has some genuine applications. The number of daily Bitcoin transactions has soared from around 1000 at the beginning of 2011 to about 50,000 today. Figuring out the “fundamentals” that drive the currency’s long-term value seems like an interesting theoretical puzzle.
[...]
A core part of Bitcoin’s appeal is that it’s not under anyone’s control. Supposedly, nobody has the authority to change the Bitcoin money supply, cancel or reverse transactions, or otherwise change the attributes of the protocol. But in practice that’s not really true. In the wake of last month’s fork, the elites in the Bitcoin community effectively changed the rules in a matter of hours. In principle, there’s no reason those same elites couldn’t make other changes to the Bitcoin protocol.
[...]
In principle, these two pools might be able to join forces and execute a 51 percent (or 53 percent) attack on the rest of the network. But doing so might prove foolish in the long run, since that kind of power grab might undermine public confidence in the currency’s long-term viability, since a mining cartel might have the power to change the rules of the Bitcoin protocol in ways that benefit themselves at the expense of ordinary users.

 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/07/four-reasons-bitcoin-is-worth-studying/2/

There had been some discussion already in the thread below, using a sensationalist thread title, however that thread has since been locked.
   
Forbes : the Biggest threat to Bitcoin is Gavin
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169681.0

1212  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Criticize my tamper-proof paper wallet design... and steal 0.1 BTC if you can. on: April 08, 2013, 09:26:45 AM
When I’ve got enough feedback and a final design, I’ll publish a web page that will generate these wallets with just a couple of clicks.

Will you also be providing a method for redeeming them?   e.g., a page that takes two fields:  Withdraw  (for scanning the private key) and the Send To (for the Bitcoin address to pay).   That way I can simply do two scans, first the private key from the paper wallet, and the second I show my QR code for my mobile wallet.

Also, will this work with only a black and white printer?
1213  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitparking, Auth'ed with Gmail, What's my UN? on: April 08, 2013, 09:07:53 AM
How do I contact the site?

I don't see any contact info whatsoever: https://ppcexchange.bitparking.com/main

Post in the thread, or contact forum user from thread:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=106356.0
 
1214  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Wiring money onto MTgox before verification? on: April 08, 2013, 08:11:07 AM
I realize my withdrawls will be restricted, but as long as I can buy bitcoins fast, this is fine.

If they initiated the status that you are required to verify, then your account is like being locked until you verify.   If you send funds via bank wire but have a pending verification (or send the funds prior to beginning the verification step), you should be able to buy bitcoins with those funds. There's no guarantee as Mt. Gox can freeze the account for AML verification at any time but if you just send the funds and are not using Tor, you should be able to buy coins with them.
1215  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin.it a real wiki ? on: April 08, 2013, 06:01:17 AM
About the fee being too high... well, some months ago 0.01 was "nothing". Now the standard for "nothing" is more like 0.0005, or even lower. That the fees are high is a more adequate subject for discussion, in my opinion.

EDIT: seeing that, as described on https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BitcoinPayment , the proceedings from the payments are used to keep with wiki online, and since probably not that many people are signing up, maybe the fee is not that high.

The fees really don't need to be sufficient to cover the admin costs of the wiki, and with the increase in the exchange rate they might already be more than covered.  Primarily the reason this existed was due to the spambots and other attempts to gain search engine / pagerank benefits.  A simple threshold of a few dimes worth of bitcoins would probably be more than sufficient to keep that activity away for the most part.

I'll take a look into seeing what is needed to get that price in BTCs lowered.  Nobody who wishes to contribute should be denied because of the cost of getting past the anti-spam protection.
1216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another possible reason for the price run-up that we haven't thought of? on: April 08, 2013, 05:31:17 AM
Remember it hit $0.001 when mtgox was hacked?

Please don't continue that mistaken assertion.   Bitcoin was never trading for 0.001 at Mt. Gox.      There was never a seller willing (or needing) to sell below about $11 following that security breach.     That $0.001 number comes from when stolen coins were being sold.  Of course, since those were not real sales the transactions were cancelled.    Thus the value of bitcoin never dropped to a penny, or into the single digits even for trading following that June 20, 2011 incident.
 - https://mtgox.com/press_release_20110630.html

Some people and the media love to latch onto that false assertion though.  It makes for a great story, even though the facts are that it never happened.   Or if it did, then the spike to $1.4 million USD per bitcoin at Mt. Gox a few weeks later must have happened too:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=33185.msg415221#msg415221
1217  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: AirBNB.com on: April 08, 2013, 12:43:17 AM
Can you please take 10 seconds to send a request to AirBNB.com asking them to accept Bitcoins as payment?

Better yet, instead of a hotel book your next stay somewhere through 9Flats and send to AirBNB a copy of your 9Flats receipt (which is processed through BitPay).  Mention how you might have considered booking it through AirBNB but how you now use 9Flats because of the Bitcoin payment method.
 - http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/04/9flats-bitcoin

Nothing gets the message across like seeing profitable business lost to a competitor.
1218  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Offensive anti-Bitcoiner Bill Still just lost a fan on: April 07, 2013, 12:08:40 PM
If I had to choose between government and bankers or just government to deal with, I would choose just government.

You would, if given the choice, prefer to have the person show up at your door be the person with a gun who feels authorized to enter your premsises possibly with not even knocking (or knocking first, but entering either way, regardless of your instruction?)
1219  Economy / Goods / Re: [FOR SALE] Series 1, 1 BTC Casascius Bitcoins on: April 07, 2013, 03:30:37 AM
Um ..   this is nuts.

Upon seeing this I contacted someone who has three (2 of the 15....., and 1 of the 14.....), series 1 funded in October 2011, and is willing to sell (auction with a 7 BTC or $1K reserve, whichever is less).

Questions asked, maybe more.

- What kind of condition are these in?
- Did you ever touch them with your bare hands?
- Where/how have they been stored?
- Are you the original owner?
- Do they have any visible tarnish on the backside?

I asked to get digital photos so that these can be reviewed prior to bidding.  
1220  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Central Bank on: April 06, 2013, 12:21:58 AM
I hope its clear enough,

Its clear.  You are describing Mt. Gox.

Account-to-account transfers (bitcoin payments from one account to a merchant or other account who also uses Mt. Gox) are instantaneous.  

Other "banks" who don't even have accounts at Mt. Gox might accept payments from Mt. Gox account holders instantly using "green address" (because they trust Mt. Gox won't do a double spend). 

But to store your bitcoins with someone else means you are trusting that they are competent enough to hold your coins securely, and that they are not dishonest in which they run off with the funds.
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