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1341  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-03-29: Bitcoin Under Attack? Dwolla & Mt. Gox Both Hit With DDoS Attacks on: March 29, 2013, 03:49:38 PM
Seriously, was MtGox really under attack? It seemed more like the usual server problems.

Biggest DDoS (i.e., most bits per second thrown at them) in "ages" was the comment I read.  There was a lot of speculation in the #mtgox IRC channel about the possibly reasons why and when.
1342  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Does FinCEN regulation legitimates MTGox redeemable codes? on: March 29, 2013, 02:23:25 PM
I would think these MtGox codes would fall under the same situation as a gift code. Almost every retailer around the country issues gift cards, they are not all registered as money transmiting businesses.

The retailer is an agent of the issuer (who is registered as a money service business and money transmitter).  Agents do not need to register, but the issuer does need to provide to FinCEN a list of every agent who sells the gift cards:
 - http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/agentlist.html

Am I correct? To cnotinue to operate as exchange they have to register as Money Service Busines at Federal level and that's it.

I think there are a lot of lawyers getting billable work from BitInstant.com, Ziggap.com, Coinlab.com, Coinbase.com, BitFloor.com, CampBX.com, WeExchange.co, FastCash4Bitcoins.com, BitcoinsDirect.com, Coinsetter.com, and Kraken.com, OKPay.com, BTCPak.com, BitSpend.com, BTCInstant.com, BTCBuy.info, Coinabul.com, and others.

And that's just ones based in the U.S.,   FinCEN has made it pretty clear that if you serve customers from the U.S., the same registration requirements apply -- so include MtGox.com, Bitcoin-Central.net, BITSTAMP.net, BTC-E.com, VirtEx.com, VirWoX.com, BitcoinNordic.com, LocalBitcoins.com, etc., etc, etc, in the list that would want to keep a close eye on how the U.S. law applies to them.  Or not.
 - http://www.fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html
1343  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Does FinCEN regulation legitimates MTGox redeemable codes? on: March 29, 2013, 01:25:16 PM
If yes then they have to register as MSB or how? at Federal level or/and each state level too? or how?

There are not very many companies that are registered as money transmitters.   

Western Union, Moneygram, Amazon Payments, ADP Payroll, Blackhawk network (gift card issuer), Google Payments, Green Dot (Moneypak issuer), PayPal, Sigue (took over money transmitting role for Coinstar), Skrill (Moneybookers issuer), Travelex (travel foreign currency exchange), Xoom.

(and maybe a dozen smaller names as well.)

The reason so few are money transmitters is because each state has its own laws, many require bonding or minimum capital requirements, etc.
 - http://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/table_financial

i.e., don't expect any "redeemable code" issuers like Mt. Gox, AurumXChange/VouchX, BITSTAMP, BTC-E, etc, to become licensed money transmitters.  And if any then do happen to become licensed, then don't expect the instrument to be used anonymously for amounts larger than the $500 range.
1344  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Does FinCEN regulation legitimates MTGox redeemable codes? on: March 29, 2013, 12:51:22 PM
As long as exchanges have to comply as money transmitters does it mean that then they still can perform isueing and redeeming codes between customer's accounts?

In the U.S. a redeemable code that transmits value would probably be the same as "prepaid access", the term used now for stored value instruments. Issuing those requires a Money Service Business registration at the federal level and approval as a Money Transmitter in 47 of the U.S. states. (i.e., which none of the exchanges are likely in a position to do).

Now if this just impacts fiat-denominated codes (e.g., USD, EUR, etc.) or if it also would apply to BTC-denominated stored value instruments I have no idea.

Either way, Mt. Gox is no longer going to be issuing either MTG USD redeemable codes nor MTG CAD redeemable codes to anyone, from anywhere beginning April 10th, 2013.
1345  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How to calculate profit on: March 29, 2013, 12:30:06 PM
That is slightly incorrect.......

You should state FPGA's bit-mining kit  from the major suppliers in not currently cost effective, the actual FPGA's can be had very cheaply on Ebay. and are cost effective when incorporated into a home brew system...

So you believe this line on the right hand side has finished rising then?

 - http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-ever.png

Because that spike is even before this metric ton of ASICs about ready to ship will start reaching the hands of thousands of some very anxious miners.
 - http://mineforeman.com/2013/03/29/butterfly-labs-update/

[Edit: So unless you personally will cover the balance between the cost of acquiring an FPGA today and the fraction of a bitcoin it will earn over the next year, then it might be best when you are handing out a prediction about new spending being "cost effective" that you clarify that with the disclaimer that nobody knows the future difficulty nor the future BTC/USD exchange rate to be able to make such predictions.]
1346  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: Desesperado. No accedo a mi cuenta de blockchain on: March 29, 2013, 12:20:06 PM
This is a problem today for all Blockchain users with SMS / two-factor authentication

[En Espanol, via Google Translate] Este es un problema para todos los usuarios hoy Blockchain con SMS / autenticación de dos factores


See:

Update:  it's been over 5 hours and no response - still locked out of my wallet due to not receiving the SMS codes, and now it's stuck on "changing wallet identifier" ... am I the only one having issues?
1347  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: What can someone do with a blockchain wallet backup? on: March 29, 2013, 12:16:18 PM
Say I have for my blockchain wallet 2nd factor, very complex pw, second very complex pw. Someone breaks into my email account that has the backup, what can they do?

That is AES encryption, so you are pretty safe unless you happen to operate on a compromised system (e.g., with keylogger malware) or that person that broke into your e-mail account was your friend and instead of texting someone with her phone while sitting next to you she was instead filming you as you entered your two passwords.

Second passwords are not a form of two-factor authentication (2FA).

1348  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Historical question: were any Bitcoins premined? If so, how many? on: March 29, 2013, 12:01:06 PM
Ha, Windows.  That's probably why I remember reading that it was a little bit of a hassle early on ... for Linux and Mac users.

The code wasn't easily compiled and built, there was nearly no documentation, etc.
[...]
All the libraries used are cross-platform, so there's nothing preventing future Linux and Mac builds.
1349  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: How to deposit cash into mtgox? on: March 29, 2013, 10:57:36 AM
I read somewhere you could use cash deposit at certain places (I had seen a wells fargo by me allows it) and then transfer to mtgox, but I forgot where I read that. Can someone explain to me the exact method? Also do I need to be mtgox verified for smaller transactions (few hundred) or for cash deposits?

For Mt. Gox, the only cash deposit method is through BitInstant, which accepts cash in the U.S. only at Moneygram locations (e.g., 7-11, Walmart, CVS, etc.).

For BitFloor you can deposit cash at Bank of America for credit to your BitFloor account.

1350  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Historical question: were any Bitcoins premined? If so, how many? on: March 29, 2013, 08:54:52 AM
Did Satoshi release/open source Bitcoin publicly on the same day that mining began?

How interested might you have been in the following drawing?



At the time it was drawn, not many people were interested.  It did eventually make it into a publication though.

That was drawn by Charles Schulz, creator of Snoopy, when he was a child.

See back when Satoshi created Bitcoin, almost nobody gave a rat's ass about it.    It was a lot of work, from what I read, to try the program out.  The code wasn't easily compiled and built, there was nearly no documentation, etc.

But the project had been discussed in the cryptography mailing list months prior to the genesis block being created on January 3rd, 2009, and the first public release occurred less than a week after the genesis block was mined:
 - http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10142.html

Eventually, others did join in.    

The June 2010 Slashdot article is when difficulty rose above to where there were more miners (maybe a few dozen prior to then mining regularly?).  Difficulty was 1 until February 2010 at block 38,304 -- when 1.9 million BTC had already been mined.
 - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc
1351  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How to calculate profit on: March 29, 2013, 08:26:17 AM
Which FPGA should I buy, and where ?

FPGAs purchased today are no longer viable mining hardware, after considering the capacity coming online from ASICs.  ASICs are just that much more cost efficient to procure and operate.

As far as calculating profit, that will depend on future difficulty and future exchange rate, neither of which is known yet.

If you have the specs for an FPGA you can calculate how much it will earn (gross revenue) at the current difficulty:
 - http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/
 
1352  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Paper Wallet questions... on: March 29, 2013, 08:23:15 AM
1) When first generated and printed, the wallet is just a piece of paper? No connection to the blockchain, yes?

Yes.

2) When a transaction is generated and Bitcoin is sent to the wallet address, it then is recorded on the blockchain?

Yes, that is the first that the Bitcoin network knows of that address.

3) When you merge a paper wallet with an online wallet like at Blockchain.info, how does the receiving address confirm the private key printed on the paper wallet?

You "import" the private key into the Blockchain.info/wallet.  That private key is then no different from any other private key in that wallet.   The Bitcoin address is a derivative of the private key.    So it doesn't need to know the Bitcoin address, just the private key.

4) How do you merge a paper wallet directly into a QT client?

Code:
importprivkey yourPrivateKeyInWalletImportFormat

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/How_to_import_private_keys_v7%2B#Run_Import_Command_in_Debug_Window
1353  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Can sites like Blockchain.info be held legaly responsible on: March 29, 2013, 08:18:59 AM
They skim fee's

They do?
[Update: Oh, ... if you mark the checkbox to have a "shared" transaction, which improves privacy, there is a fee.   Otherwise, the fee that is paid goes to the miner of the transaction, not Blockchain.info.]
1354  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: gold/silver far better than bitcoin? I hope you can prove me wrong. on: March 29, 2013, 08:17:06 AM
Anyone can buy/sell up to $10,000 in gold/silver with TOTAL anonymity.  You just walk into any coinshop and hand over cash.

Ok and 24 hours later my friend walks into that same coinshop with the same "$10,000 in gold/silver" that I just bought.  What will the coinship give him (other than a hard time)?
1355  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Tips for local transactions on: March 29, 2013, 08:12:44 AM
Here's a report of a face-to-face transaction gone bad.

In this instance, a person selling headphones through Craigslist was contacted and a face-to-face trade (at a McDonalds) was arranged.  Except it didn't go according to the buyer's plan and the seller left with both the headphones and the bitcoins:

I just got robbed blind of bitcoins - in person. I'm feeling like I've lost trust in the usability of the currency and looking for advice.
 - http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1b89wm
1356  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Blockchain - how do i get out on: March 29, 2013, 07:19:20 AM
or is it because it doesnt have to?

Yup, there's some error correction in the address to make it rare that a typo would cause what was entered accidentally to end up being a valid address but there's no repository of addresses or any registration or anything like that.
1357  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: My bitcoin story - what can I do to help? on: March 29, 2013, 06:13:07 AM
Please let me know if you have any ideas. My specialities lie in data mining, text visualization, machine learning, and security informatics

Right now there is a huge problem with price discovery.  For instance, a little over two weeks ago, a $50 price was a lofty goal.  Today $90 seems appropriate.   Obviously, either they were wrong two weeks ago or we are wrong today.

One of the difficulties in determining Bitcoin's value is there is little useful data.  So things like "Number of /r/bitcoin Reddit users online simultaneously", or "Google trends" numbers are considered for speculation instead of things like a true "economic activity" metric.

This is a problem for governments where the economy operates significantly using cash (which could be used anonymously) and it is a challenge that will be returning thanks to Bitcoin.  Knowing how much economic activity is occurring with Bitcoin is going to become more and more valuable.  Right now so little of Bitcoin's value is based on the true demand due to economic activity that this metric is pretty much worthless today.   For instance, the largest Bitcoin payment processor is BitPay, which just reported they crossed the $2 million threshold for March.  Two million dollars.   Square does that much business for their merchants in a  few hours, and they are just a tiny blip in the payment card industry.

I don't know what approach would allow an economic activity metric to be measured accurately.   Governments can mandate reports (tax returns), and industry councils can request completion of periodic surveys from their members.   Bitcoin has neither ... for now.   Bitcoin does have a blockchain in which most bitcoin-denominated transactions appear in (not all do though ... a payment handled as a withdrawal from a Mt. Gox customer's EWallet to a Mt. Gox merchant might be handled internally by Mt. Gox's spend transaction, for example).

This is one area where a site spider could determine roughly how many sites accept bitcoin and based on how much traffic each site gets determine some rough trends that would be useful in determining valuations.

If this information were to be valued it could probably be sold privately (e.g. to subscribers), or maybe there is even a way it could be shared publicly.

Either way, multiple people will eventually be working on the "how to measure the Bitcoin economy" problem, but so far there hasn't been enough of an economy that many are working on it today.  That will be changing.
1358  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Incredibly confused by Bitcoin Futures contracts on icbit on: March 29, 2013, 05:48:59 AM
So let's say I click "Sell".  How I am interpreting this is "At expiration, I am obligated to sell $10USD @ 81.5BTC/USD."  In other words, when the contract expires, I will receive $0.12BTC, and will give $10.

I realize that this interpretation is probably very wrong, and the inverse explanation (At expiration, I am obligated to buy $10USD @ 81.5 BTC/USD) isn't much better for different reasons.  What is the correct way to interpret what happens at expiration?

The different contract types at ICBIT are treated different from each other but all the BTC/USD futures contracts work the same:

For each position:
  -((1/Close) - (1/Open))*$10

So if you sell 1 contract of BUJ3 at $81.50, then you are opening a short position and that $81.50 is your "Open" price.  on April 14th (the contract settlement date) the "24 hour weighted average" price at the largest exchange (presumably it will still be Mt. Gox) becomes the "Close" price.

So let's say the weighted average exchange rate on April 14th is $70.   So plugging in the numbers:
  -((1/$70) - (1/$81.50))*$10 = −0.020157756 BTC.    Since you "bought" (bought to close your short position) you earned this price difference.   But there also are trading fees on BUJ3 of 0.003 BTC, so subtract those, and you net 0.014157756 BTC.  At BTC/USD of $70 on April 14th, then you would have gained $0.99104292 per contract that you sold.   So a $11.50 move in the BTC/USD gained you only about $1.  That will vary based on the open and close prices.  For instance, a $11.50 move from $51.50 to $40 would be a much bigger gain than $1, and a $11.50 move from $121.50 to $110 would be a somewhat smaller gain than $1.

But this is where leverage comes in.  After depositing 1 BTC, you could sell more than 30 contracts from the leverage that 1 BTC provides.  Leveraging at that level is "crazy risky" though and you could easily see a margin call (where your position gets forcefully closed on you). 

This is important because that variation margin calculation from above is performed based on the daily "clearing price", which will vary from the BTC/USD spot market price at Mt. Gox.    So each day you will either earn or lose on the variation margin adjustment for each daily clearing.  Even multiple clearings can happen in a single day, if they are needed due to volatility.

But let's say you were to sell 8 BUJ3 contracts at $81.50 with 1 BTC deposited.  That is about the level where a drop in the BTC/USD is matched by your gain in the BUJ3.   At the same time, any rise in the BTC/USD will be matched by your loss in the BUJ3.

So if today the BTC/USD exchange rate was $75 let's say and the BUJ3 was $81.50, you could lock in a gain of about $6 by sending your 1 BTC to ICBIT, selling 8 BUJ3s, and just waiting until April 14th.  No matter what happens -- up or down on April 14th, you get about $80 in the end, $5 more than if you had sold at $75 today.   Of course, this locks up your bitcoin until the futures contract settlement ... unless  the BUJ3 trading pulls back closer to the BTC/USD earlier than the settlement date.

Right now the BUJ3 trades at a relatively huge premium over the BTC/USD spot price.  This is known as "Contango"  (versus "Backwardation" when the BUJ3 trade price would be below the BTC/USD spot price).    So anyone selling BTCs might have an incentive to sell BUJ3 for a premium and then just wait until April 14th to finish cashing out.   

There are a couple risks though.  ICBIT is offering a service that is a regulated activity in most jurisdictions.  They offer this service but operate anonymously, likely to protect themselves until they get set up as a regulated operation.     So there is counterparty risk from that.

Also, there is the risk that some other trader is reckless with leverage and ends up losing more than the account was worth.  This loss gets assessed to those still holding countering positions which have gains.  So in the example above, even though you might have made a gain on the short, if someone else lost big on a long position their losses could be assessed against your short position, causing you to earn less than you projected.   That should only happen in times of extreme volatility.  This is Bitcoin though -- volatility happens.
1359  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Blockchain - how do i get out on: March 28, 2013, 10:15:22 PM
but my question still remains how do i remove the association of my wallet/public key from blockchain.info?

You can click archive on an address and then from the archive view delete the address and private key.

But that still leaves the key around in your backups.

For true secure transfer (to keys that have never been known to an online, network connected system), create new keys offline and do a send transaction so the funds are transferred there.
1360  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: ICBIT Derivatives Market (USD/BTC futures trading) - LIVE on: March 28, 2013, 09:57:47 PM
Incidentally:

Quote
It looks like an extra clearing is needed to move back the trading ranges for futures #bitcoin
- https://twitter.com/icbit_se/status/317392723709673472

That was the fastest time between clearings that I've seen.  The 20:00 clearing and then the special one at 21:52.
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