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1481  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Economy Value --> $519,555,304.09 on: March 21, 2013, 10:47:41 PM
"Total" implies adding all the values which is clearly not what's being done.

That is exactly what is being done.   If a bitcoin trades at $65 then the total dollar valuation (TDV) is the sum total of each bitcoin that exists at the trade value of $65.

Or am I misinterpreting your comment?
1482  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Shorting Bitcoins? on: March 21, 2013, 10:40:30 PM
Also, CampBX can execute advanced trades and margin.

Not today.  Their site has had that teaser since it launched more than a year and a half ago, but they currently do not have the margin trading, stop loss feature, etc.  Because they do accept deposits of USD funds through Dwolla there is one technique that some use to gain leverage for trading bitcoins.  Dwolla Instant is a method in which Dwolla provides a loan of up to $500:
 - http://help.dwolla.com/customer/portal/articles/433827-instant-faq

While hopefully this access to credit isn't being used to speculate by those who would not be able to afford the losses should the exchange rate move unfavorably for that speculator, it does become a tool allowing a trader to short in an alternate way. 

There is demand for "dollar loans" in which bitcoins are the transactional currency but the loan agreement specifies payment of interest and the return of principal to be calculated in terms of dollars.  So by taking a USD loan through Dwolla Instant, buying bitcoins with those borrowed funds and then lending them out to a borrower at a higher interest rate then that person is in effect shorting bitcoins using leverage.  If the speculator is correct and the exchange rate drops by the time repayment of the loan occurs, there will be a net positive balance of bitcoins after settling (repayment) of the Dwolla USD loan.    Of course, there is risk of default by the borrower so this method of shorting should only be considered by those with experience in lending.

1483  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: March 21, 2013, 09:54:23 PM
Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I still believe that in a downtrend the weekend dip strategy can still be profitable, but we haven't seen any decent downtrends in many months.  This last one resulted essentially in a wash unless perfect timing allowed a tiny profit.

Needless to say, this weekend we are not in a downtrend (specifically we are up more than 40% week-to-week), so there's no green light.
1484  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Current Leveraged Bitcoin Trading Options on: March 21, 2013, 12:56:48 PM
Anything else?

CALL and PUT options on MPEX.

Kraken is supposedly nearing as well.

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Financial
1485  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: March 2013 Chain Fork Post-Mortem [Draft] on: March 21, 2013, 12:47:54 PM
For resolving the double spending, I wonder if there's another approach for recovering after an accidental hard fork.

I could see providing at startup a block hash which is the block at the end of the forked chain.  Transactions from all those blocks (down to where the fork started) get added to the mem pool and nothing else until those transactions are either invalid or included in blocks. Additionally, the node broadcasts the transactions as well to peers. 

Other blocks would still be accepted like normal, so there is still a risk of a double spend from a successful race attack, but since any transactions in the fork would be re-broadcast as well as be given priority for inclusion the chances of success by the person trying to get away with a race attack double spend decrease significantly.
1486  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / March 2013 Chain Fork Post-Mortem [Draft] on: March 21, 2013, 12:34:10 PM
I see on the Bitcoin.it wiki is BIP 0050.

March 2013 Chain Fork Post-Mortem [Draft]
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BIP_0050
1487  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: What happened to bitme.com? on: March 21, 2013, 12:20:27 PM
Does anyone know why BitMe is shutting down?

Operating an exchange is an expensive venture, especially with having to perform ID verification, etc.

I wouldn't doubt FinCEN's guidance pretty much cleared up any confusion about how they view exchanges (with regards to MSB registration as a money transmitter).
1488  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox private key sweep function on: March 21, 2013, 11:45:43 AM
i have a similar issue except my transaction seems not to exist at all... 0/unconfirmed since last monday.

Those are mutually exclusive statements.   Does it exist and is sitting at 0/unconfirmed, or does it not exist (i.e., not visible on Blockchain.info, for example) at all?
1489  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Real estate and bitcoins on: March 21, 2013, 11:30:04 AM
I read a post somewhere of an entrepreneur in canada that wants to sell his house for bitcoin.

First Bitcoin House Sale Set To Go Ahead.
 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21863593


And another one that had been listed but since sold:

The villa is located just 2.5 km away from the beach in a private community and just about 15 minutes from the Punta Cana airport.
THE PROPERTY WAS SOLD! BUT UNFORTUNATLY NOT FOR BITCOINS Sad
1490  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: FinCEN addresses Bitcoin on: March 21, 2013, 09:45:36 AM
US based pools will be probably required to collect a lot of information from miners and miners will not accept this => I worry that US based pools will be hit the hardest by the FinCEN guidelines => they will go offshore)

FinCEN has extended their reach to include MSBs serving those from the U.S. regardless of where in the world the MSB is based:

Quote
In addition, an entity qualifies as an MSB based on its activity within the United States, not thephysical presence of one or more of its agents, agencies, branches, or offices in the United States. This requirement arose out of the recognition that the Internet and other technological advances make it increasingly possible for persons to offer MSB services in the United States from foreign locations. FinCEN seeks to ensure that the BSA rules apply to all persons engaging in covered activities within the United States, regardless of their physical location.
- http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/pdf/20110715.pdf


I'm wondering here ... if I mine at a pool then I am getting payout not with newly mined coin but from the pool operator's wallet.    The pool would be, in that instance, the recipient of the "created" coin.  Now the pools that payout generated coin directly to the miners (e.g., Eligius), then that's different.

But this could turn into something that becomes something of a threat to Bitcoin.

If a pool wants to avoid serving those from the U.S., that means it would then need to know where the miner is from.  A pool would then be unable to serve miners who remain anonymous then, unless the pool follows the steps like online casinos follow where they block IP addresses for those trying to access the service from the U.S.   But that means no Tor access either.

So this becomes a choke point where FinCEN regulations could be used to seize equipment at a pool for sending payouts to miners in the U.S. where neither the pool nor the miner have registered as MSBs as money transmitters.  The only protection from this is for the pool to verify ID of all miners.

This may not have been their intention or it may be their tactic to prepare the battlefield.
1491  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin-QT: System Error: Database Corrupted on: March 21, 2013, 08:53:43 AM
Am I correct in understanding that I don't need to worry about that with Bitcoin-QT?

Bitcoin-Qt provides the (optional) step for passphrase encryption which will encrypt the private keys in the wallet.
1492  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Safe computer with safe system on: March 21, 2013, 08:42:01 AM
How many of You, would like to invest in computer with guarantee of safety (or just very, very safe)? There is no totally safe computers (with safe system) ready to buy on the market.

There are a number of computers and operating systems that are secure for running Armory offline -- Armory builds are available for Windows, Mac and Linux.   Any LiveOS is considered secure for loading and printing BitAddress paper wallets.

It is the connected computing systems that carry the risk.    With those, bitcoin's primary line of defense (passphrase encryption) can be bypassed with malware that performs keylogging.  All operating systems for consumer or small to medium business (SMB) use are vulnerable to malware such as keylogging software either due to exploits or due to user not following security measures that are adequate.

What do you think about idea: having computer only to work, invest, storing important data, etc.?

A separate computer ins't always necessary.  For the example earlier, a LiveOS boot allows a system to serve as a secure device for running a Bitcoin client in an offline configuration (e.g., Armory) or to create paper wallets (printing from BitAddress).   

There is much progress on Bitcoin-specific hardware wallets:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardware_wallet
1493  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Almost gave up on Bitcoin on: March 21, 2013, 01:11:42 AM
So, I have a question:
Why is the processes of getting started with using/mining Bitcoins being kept so user-unfriendly?

You seem to think that mining is some golden ticket to riches.  

Nearly every purchase of mining hardware has lost money for the person mining, especially when including the effort (labor).

What I mean by that is that had each person instead put that money into buying bitcoins instead, that person would today have more coins than that person has since received from mining (including coins that would be obtained by liquidating the investment in mining hardware, at today's values).

So in terms of bitcoins held in-hand today, mining has been a money-losing proposition for most everyone(1).

Ask all those people who sent in nearly 200 BTC for their BFL single's back in June 2012.  Will those people be recouping their 200 BTC?   Well, once that hardware ships we'll know what difficulty levels will be and how much they'll earn, but they probably shouldn't expect anywhere near 200 BTC.

Now to purchase that hardware they paid an amount worth about $1,300.  Will they get $1,300 worth of bitcoins (after expenses) from it over its lifetime?  Probably.  Right now it only needs to mine 22 BTC to get there.    Would those miners have preferred their 200 BTC right now?  Sure, but that includes the benefit of hindsight.

So that's one reason mining isn't being given the "hard sell" -- there are skills required and risks taken and that isn't something for everyone.

(1) - The exception are those who have already received their Avalon ASICs or shares of ASICMINER -- they are doing better on a per-bitcoin invested basis than had they simply held onto their bitcoins.  
1494  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitinstant -> MTgox problem funds not showing up on: March 21, 2013, 12:40:19 AM
i thought that it would give me a coupon code for mtgox

So, for them to have been able to deposit it into your Mt. Gox account means you would have needed to have entered your Mt. Gox account number.   Do you remember doing that?  If not, then there will be some manual followup work from you to get your Mt. Gox account number to them so they can apply the funds correctly.

Either way, there is a support thread for these inquiries where you'll want to post to get a faster response (they probably aren't hunting around the Newbies forum board looking for customer support inquiries).

Official BitInstant Support Thread (Active Customer Support)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128314.0
1495  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: As a new user, problems I see with bitcoin on: March 20, 2013, 08:41:24 PM
1) I thought about accepting payment for real work with bitcoin: will never happen at the moment. Reason why? way too volatile. How can I expect a client to change $20 000 into bitcoins for an invoice, and then by the time they have to pay maybe 24 hours later, bitcoins exchange rate has moved 10%

That's where something like Coinbase works well.  It is essentially like using a USD credit line so you can lock in the price now and the USD funds settle (when the ACH is completed) a few days later at which time the buyer gets the BTCs.  All for a 1% fee.  (The main problem is the maximum per-day amount that you can buy, until you've passed the 30-day probationary period).

if you are trying to introduce a medium of exchange [volatility is] not good

But since a merchant can use a payment processor to insulate from volatility, the exposure to exchange rate risk is then the consumer.    If the consumer can only purchase the item with bitcoins, then they are going to be acquired right at about the time the purchase is made, so that person doesn't have much exposure.  Those who have bitcoins but don't wish to be exposed to the exchange rate risk can convert those to USDs at an exchange (without withdrawing) and then simply buy bitcoins back right at the time they are needed for purchases.

No doubt, price discovery is a brutal for bitcoin's role as a medium of exchange.  10% day-to-day moves have not been that common so don't assume every day will be like this.   They will happen, but not day after day, and not all in the same direction.  In the meantime, fortunately bitcoin has other things going for it as well (user-defined anonymity, non-reversible transactions, low fees, no restrictions on usage, etc.) that it will continue to be used widely in commerce, and the currency will continue to spread such that 10% moves will someday be very rare.
1496  Economy / Lending / Re: Why is nobody shorting BTC on: March 20, 2013, 06:40:26 PM
I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up?

For anyone else who stumbled onto this thread thinking it might actually have to do with shorting (incidentally, the correct title for this thread should have been "Why is nobody interested in my loan request"), there are several ways to short.

Right now there are bids on futures contracts above $70 on ICBIT (for BUM3, the June 15th 2013 settlement).   So that's like selling today at $70+ but you would then wait until June 15th to get the cash for that.  The contract with the Sept. 15th 2013 settlement has bids above $75 right now.

And there are other methods for going short, including writing CALL options or buying PUT options on MPEX.  And there's also  Bitfinex.   1Broker isn't offering BTC/USD anymore though.  When CoinSetter launches they say they will have this.  
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Financial

[Caution though, shorting involves counterparty risk and other factors.  Please perform due diligence.]
1497  Bitcoin / Technical Support / Re: Encrypt private key on paper wallet using bitaddress.org on: March 20, 2013, 05:58:55 PM
So I would like to have the printed private keys encrypted with a passphrase. What would be the best way to realize this?

Wait for the next release of BitAddress.

Or, take your chances with the version that has not yet been vetted by the community as being safe.  If you know javascript and cryptography you might be qualified to make that conclusion yourself, but for now it is getting that vetting.

From another thread:

I changed the colour to blue for encrypted paper wallets to provide distinction between encrypted/unencrypted paper wallets - a version in the original yellow is included in case you really like yellow, just delete 'note_encrypted.png' and rename 'note_yellow.png' in its place.



This solution (encrypted paper wallets) robably isn't ready for prime time, but give it a few weeks and that will probably become a very good method for offline / long term savings that is secure.
1498  Economy / Gambling / Re: [BITLOTTO] Mar 1 draw over $2000 or 50BTC! Tickets now 0.1 BTC for Apr 5 on: March 20, 2013, 04:46:18 AM
Not really cool Sad

Yes, this is an uncharacteristically long delay, especially with no further updates since the 7th. 

The funds are still unspent though, so don't lose hope:
 - http://blockchain.info/address/12fxpYHWfoBNtZk2oMcbuBNvyJtVmL9KTF
 - http://blockchain.info/address/1MEjrYadGN41detAUionHC6iU15K7Ydmva
 - http://blockchain.info/address/1NfRi27U5wV3GF7VyfurkuN5Mmx1s6WDmj
1499  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Buying 100-200 Bitcoins from Europe on: March 20, 2013, 04:39:14 AM
What about a bank wire to Mt. Gox. and then buying the Bitcoins through them? Would that be a stupid way to buy the BTCs?

No, that's fine.  You had asked about cheaper alternatives.  A SEPA wire to Mt. Gox (bank in Poland) is fairly inexpensive and probably nearly as fast as an international wire to their other bank would have been.
1500  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: List of court cases, complaints, regulatory actions, etc. on: March 20, 2013, 04:16:03 AM
Application of FinCEN’s Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging, or Using Virtual Currencies
March 18, 2013
Location: USA

Abstract: The U.S. Dept. of Treasury's FinCEN has provided its guidance relating to virtual currencies (presumably including Bitcoin).

 - http://www.fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html

Further discussion here:

FinCEN addresses Bitcoin
- http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154672.0

Today, we are all money transmitters… (no, really!)
Patrick Murck, Bitcoin Foundation general counsel
 - https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/?p=152
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