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741  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Read this before you invest with icbit on: July 01, 2013, 09:46:52 AM
in other words influences that are not anything to do with bitcoin

There definitely are trades occurring due to forced margin selling, and if there aren't enough contracts bid that selling will go low, below current spot even if that is still within the trading range.

But you can't fault for there not being sufficient bids.  It's just the result of a long, protracted slide in which many traders on the long side who were margined are basically just adding more funds to hang on and not buying a greater position, regardless of the price.

It shouldn't be surprising that there isn't a huge level of liquidity in the trading of futures contracts on an exchange with properties unlike any other (specifically, the counterparty risk where your position can get closed even without you getting a margin call due to the losses of others).

There is much risk when you combine leverage with volatility, so if there's more that could be done it would be to educate traders on those risks. 
742  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Anyway to block miners in China? on: July 01, 2013, 05:25:04 AM
Then no cryptocurrency will ever be successful.

It's an evolutionary process. Bitcoin will die and a better cryptocurrency will be created.

OK, now it's apparent this was just trolling.
743  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Anyway to block miners in China? on: July 01, 2013, 05:22:53 AM
As the diffculty increases, less individuals get involved in Bitcoin mining and it turns into a corporate venture.

I remember when CPU miners were whining that GPUs meant the end of bitcoin due to the "home user" being shut out of mining.  

Remember one thing.  Miners work for those who buy the bitcoins.   The least efficient workers (i.e., power-hungy GPU miners) are being displaced with more efficient workers (ASICs).

This was telegraphed well in advance, and getting to this point actually took much longer than many of us expected.  But progress from here (i.e, difficulty continues shooting up) is right on cue:

If you are still GPU mining on bitcoin, please do not be deluded into thinking this is something that will blow over.  If you haven't done so already, prepare to shut down your GPU rigs -- and the sooner the better.

As far as blocking mined blocks based on geographic area, Bitcoin was architected to protect against this type of corruption.  Miners relay their mined blocks to their peers, so every peer would need to reject an IP range.   That would never happen.
744  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Read this before you invest with icbit on: July 01, 2013, 01:58:36 AM
Today with spot at $100 or so a reasonable premium might be, very roughly, $60 to $80. If it is much out of that range it is a warning that something needs to be investigated. If it is below zero than it is much more than a warning.

Or a lack of buyers at that price.   It is an open market.  You are free to put in a BUY order for contracts at that price.
745  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Does such a thing even exist?! on: July 01, 2013, 01:01:49 AM seems to have some of this functionality, but I'm not too sure I would trust it too much, and I'm not sure I can pick the originating address for sending bitcoin.

You can from the Web client.  You choose "custom" when sending.

Also, the Mycelium Bitcoin Wallet client (Android) provides an easy method for importing (scanning) a private key.  (It is new, beta software yet and was just recently made available so use care such as only dealing with paper keys with small amounts, for now.):
746  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: What's to stop fully licenced bitcoin exchanges from trading fiat pairs? on: July 01, 2013, 12:56:22 AM
I was referring to this case. Out of interest, what regulator and regulations are there for allowing the exchange of fiat currencies?

From the FinCEN guidance:

Dealers in Foreign Exchange

A person must exchange the currency of two or more countries to be considered a dealer in foreign exchange.19 Virtual currency does not meet the criteria to be considered "currency" under the BSA, because it is not legal tender. Therefore, a person who accepts real currency in exchange for virtual currency, or vice versa, is not a dealer in foreign exchange under FinCEN's regulations.

So from that is seems reasonable that one could, from the U.S., accept EUR in exchange for BTC (and vice-versa) and not be considered a dealer in foreign exchange.    There might still be the requirement to register as an MSB, but not as a "dealer of foreign exchange".    Now if you try to go USD --> BTC, then those BTC --> EUR, then that effectively is a USD --> EUR trade and those transactions might cause you to be considered a dealer in foreign exchange.

As far as what regulators exists for a forex brokerage?  Here's a snippet from a forex brokerage:

In American the main Forex regulatory commissions are the National Futures Association (NFA), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These bodies regulate Forex brokers in the US and ensure that only registered brokers are able to operate in the country, and that transparency in all transactions are maintained.
747  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: how to get mtgox USD into CampBX? on: July 01, 2013, 12:26:22 AM
Thanks for the replies, however I am still confused.  The best way for my situation is to eat the $7 per coin loss to move the funds into my checking account via dwolla?

Also, if all you want is an ACH transfer to your bank account, you can sell your re-acquired coins at a better rate by using Coinbase.  The funds are then sent to your bank account in the same manner (ACH) as Dwolla would do.
748  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: how to get mtgox USD into CampBX? on: July 01, 2013, 12:17:30 AM
Thanks for the replies, however I am still confused.  The best way for my situation is to eat the $7 per coin loss to move the funds into my checking account via dwolla?

If you need to transfer the funds NOW, then yes, unfortunately -- Camp BX is the only other exchange in which bitcoins can be sold for Dwolla.  And yes, there is about a $7 difference between the cost for you to buy them at Mt. Gox and then sell those coins at Camp BX (not even including the loss to exchange fees).

If you trust that Mt. Gox will resume with a cash-out method for USDs (including Dwolla, or maybe bank wire transfer even), you might be better off leaving the funds at Mt. Gox until they resume that capability.
749  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: List of court cases, complaints, regulatory actions, etc. on: July 01, 2013, 12:09:29 AM
No, this doesnt belong here and is wrong, too.

I'm not sure why you'ld claim that a formal, public response by an agency of the German federal government does not belong in this thread.
750  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: List of court cases, complaints, regulatory actions, etc. on: July 01, 2013, 12:06:01 AM
Vitalik Buterin published a great summary of regulatory actions for 2013 to-date:
751  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: List of court cases, complaints, regulatory actions, etc. on: July 01, 2013, 12:04:51 AM
Search and Seizure Warrant, by U.S. District Court (Middle District, TN)
September 13, 2012
Location: Franklin, TN, USA

An update to this:

Michael Mancil Brown was indicted on extortion and wire fraud charges over Mitt Romney’s tax returns.

752  Bitcoin / Press / Re: POST FORMAT: YYYY-MM-DD - SITE - HEADLINE on: June 30, 2013, 07:49:49 PM
Please use the title formatting described when posting new links here. Adapt if needed, use your own judgement. Please always include date and source.

Maybe someone can sticky this, I don't think people read the posting guidelines...

The suggested format shouldn't have a hyphen between DATE and SITE.

i.e., should be:


  2013-06-30 - Awesome Bitcoin Article

And for those wondering why [having date as YYYY-MM-DD] is a big deal, ... if the posts are formatted this way, then a link can be used to see new articles sorted chronologically:

753  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-06-30 p2pfoundation: How the Bitcoin 1% manipulate the currency, deceive... on: June 30, 2013, 07:42:27 PM
"Account" (BTC-Adress) =/ "Owner"

Also, lots of early coins didnt move because they are lost.

This paper cites lots of old and even back then questionworthy statements. I would give much credit to them.

With many people (foolishly) storing their bitcoins at exchanges rather than locally in their own wallets, the exchanges hold a large number of coins.   And even if those coins are flip flopping back and forth in trades to and from dollars, until they are withdrawn they don't show up in the blockchain.      And since all sane exchanges employ cold storage mechanisms, those coins will not move because withdrawal requests are served using coins recently received in the hot wallets.

But overall, I'ld agree that a very small subset of the population hold a relatively huge number of coins, and if bitcoin continues its ascent these people will benefit from those coins having insane gains.   That's just one of those things though, happens all around -- like those owning Apple stock over the past half decade, or gold versus a decade ago, etc.
754  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Any recent word from Bill Gates? on: June 30, 2013, 07:22:03 PM
If the billionaires were interested in bitcoins, They would become the elite all over again.

Not really.

The wealthy make money not from just having wealth but by having a stake in the system that generates wealth.   The wealthy don't own dollars, ... they own shares of the bank which makes money from charging overdraft fees, bank maintenance fees, earning interest on loans, payment card merchant fees, etc.  

There might be an increase in wealth from holding bitcoin as a store of value, but the Bitcoin ecosystem itself doesn't provide such a lucrative, parasitic opportunity for extracting fees from those transacting in bitcoins.   The payment network has no concept of overdraft fees.  There's no bank necessary even, if you are comfortable securing your client (e.g., Bitcoin-Qt) locally.

So even if billionaires speculate on bitcoins that doesn't give them the gains like Buffet's sweet deal when he invested $5B in preferred stock of JP Morgan (2008).

Bitcoin is not part of the old boy's club and instead competes against that.
755  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Caution about icbit on: June 30, 2013, 07:08:15 PM
But there is zero chance of a September contract trading below $100, below today's spot, unless there is some severe manipulation going on.

Price discovery, ... too, is a bitch.
756  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoin Foundation receives cease and desist order from California on: June 30, 2013, 06:52:43 PM
released info to the membership first,

What purpose would releasing it to Bitcoin Foundation members in advance of the public provide?  (other than a trading advantage ..., letting members digest the information and possibly make a decision to trade on it).
757  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Caution about icbit on: June 30, 2013, 02:32:48 PM
A September contract that is $30 above spot would be extremely cheap. $20 above would be too cheap to believe. But under spot is just absurd.

Backwardation (futures price below spot) is one of the risks, especially when using leverage.  
758  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: how to get mtgox USD into CampBX? on: June 30, 2013, 02:21:24 PM
Do I need to transfer as bitcoins, or is there a way to transfer USD from one to the other.

If I have to first purchase BTC in Gox then sell it back to USD once my BTC hits CampBX, that's a $7 loss per coin just because BTC is valued less over at CampBX.  Suggestions, please! Smiley

There nearly always are price differences between exchanges but what keeps them mostly in the same range is the result of the trading arbitrage that occurs. 

Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance

Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may change on one market before both transactions are complete.

The reason traders aren't taking advantage of the current arbitrage opportunity between Mt. Gox and other markets is because there is no way to withdraw USD funds from Mt. Gox presently as they've halted that, temporarily, reportedly.

As a result, only those with excess cash willing to let a USD balance accumulate at Mt. Gox and at the same time send more cash to other exchanges (such as Camp BX) are the ones performing the arbitrage.

You too could send dollars to Camp BX (they have a number of methods in which they accept USD funds) but presumably you are not looking to commit additional USD funds but instead wish to use the same funds already at Mt. Gox.   That's you and everyone else with that same desire, without any mechanism for that to happen.

Neither Mt. Gox nor Camp BX allow account-to-account (A2A) transfers of USDs so there's no way to get funds across from one account holder to another.    If you'ld like to know how this could be offered again, ... BITSTAMP offers a Ripple gateway.   If Mt. Gox were also to run a Ripple gateway as well then moving funds the way you are looking to do would be trivial.
759  Economy / Goods / Re: NEFT Vodka and Bitcoin on: June 30, 2013, 04:42:01 AM
By chance does anyone happen to know how to make a Satoshini?

I know from the ones served at Bitcoin 2013 it is made with Neft but since that isn't sold in the U.S. yet (hint silk Road sellers...) I figure I should be able to get a close approximation with Goose or some house swill even if needed, but I've no idea what else is needed.

[Edit: I found a pic which shows the ingredients:

NEFT vodka, Triple Sec, pomegranate juice, lemon

So it is like a Cosmopolitan with Pomegranate instead of Cranberry.  Plus lemon.]
760  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Any recent word from Bill Gates? on: June 30, 2013, 03:00:47 AM
So why has he shown little to no interest (publicly, at least)?

A couple comments, from the "Billionaires hate Bitcoin" thread:

billionaires benefit from the status quo.    Bitcoin disrupts that and the power they hold.

It took me just fifteen minutes of listening to Bill Gates on Charlie Rose to confirm that billionaires don't and won't like BItcoin.

Mr. Gates throws around a lot of "we did this" type of statements, and what he really means is "we used our power and influence to get governments to do this".  I'm not saying the accomplishments were bad, but anything that lessen's a billionaire's influence will not be something the billionaires will support.

Fortunately Bitcoin isn't most valuable by gaining support of the relatively few billionaires but instead it is most valuable by gaining support of the billions (of people on the planet).

Here's the June 2012 interview:

At about 0:10:20 into the video:

Charlie Rose: [In India] How much corruption?

Bill Gates: Well there's always going to be some corruption.  You want to design systems that make it harder for there to be corruption.  Where you can really trace the money down to the recipient of that money.  It's partly why we'd like to get digital currencies on cellphones so you don't have as much where somebody else can collect it along the way.

Charlie Rose: You'ld like to get that done.  What is necessary for that to happen?

Bill Gates: The cellphones are now getting powerful enough.  The government has to set some standards.   There's a lot of energy being put into this in India.  It has happened only in Kenya.  It's the only developing country that has this digital currency.  And now that India sees that it has happened in one place they are trying to clear out the regulations and get it going?

Charlie Rose: And how does it work in Kenya?

Bill Gates: You can actually use your cellphone and send money to other people, like a relative that is out in the rural area or if you go into a store and buy something you can just do that on your cellphone.

Charlie Rose: And they take their cellphone in to do things buy products or whatever.

Bill Gates: Exactly. It makes all these financial issues -- the fees to move money around, to have loans of various types, it makes it a lot simpler when you aren't having to handle paper currency.

A few takeaways from that:

1.) For government spending where there is the need for transparency, there's no reason why triple-entry accounting shouldn't be mandatory.    Most of that can be done today, without the need for Bitcoin even.

2.) Mr. Gates might want to have someone explain to him the difference between a "digital currency" and "mobile banking", "electronic currency", "representative money", etc.

3.) ill Gates once said in an interview that he reads every page of The Economist.  If he still does, then he'ld know that it is not just Kenya where mobile banking and mobile payments are widely used:


Mr. Gates has a very specific view on where innovation originates.  He is impressed with the level of research occurring from the top universities in China.  He talks about problems being solved after "lots of IQ" (and, presumably, money paying those salaries) are expended on certain problems.  

That map from the Economist article was recently used in another article which described "reverse innovation".  Reverse innovation is progress that occurs in the trenches -- in the developing world which the combination of local smarts apply technology and create new solutions to their problems that weren't introduced from the "top research" centers.   There's another term for "reserve innovation" --  free market competition.  When markets are free, the best solutions are sometimes discovered locally where the problems are most acute -- and not alwys designed in some office by some well-funded company thousands of miles away.

The local market in Kenya determined that mobile payments which allowed the transfer of value (mobile airtime credits) via SMS texting on feature phones worked fairly well when free of regulations (M-PESA didn't have to follow the same AML/KYC as banks in the country did.)
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