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article originally from FMZ.COM
my experience in short-term trading
The market is always in disorderly fluctuations. The speculative choice of the speculators for buying and selling is not based on the judgment of the long-term trend, but on their own expectations of the next fluctuation in price. The short-term speculators earned the volatility of the day's trading and must not hold positions overnight. In the short-term trading, once the loss happens, stop loss immediately, and the loss of each transaction should not exceed one fluctuation price. The short-term speculation must be strictly distinguished from the general trend investment.
The short-term trading earns a meager profit, so you can't hesitate to close the position.
Traditional trend traders have enough time to study the market, can make plans to enter the market and use various means to control risks, but short-term traders are different. They don't have much time to think about it. It is necessary to close position soon after opening position, so absolutely no hesitation to the execution of closing position.
In a normal trend trade, hesitating for a few minutes may not affect the outcome of the trade, but a few seconds of hesitation in a short-term trade will miss the opportunity to close the position. The short-term trading order is followed by the next wave of the market. At the same time of opening the position, it has already decided that it must close the position at the next beating price. What the short-term trading earn is the profit brought by the random fluctuation of the price. Once it has not followed the rhythm of the market in time, even if there is only one hesitation, this day may loss in all.
What I discussed and carried out is the shortest short-term trading in the day trading (one transaction in one minute). Generally, don’t hold positions. After opening the position, if the market is developing in the expected direction, earn 2 to 5 price points and run; if it’s not in the expected direction, sell and leave, even if you don’t take any profit or loss a little. The truth is like a cat in the fire: the cat must shrink its claws no matter whether it get the chestnut or not; otherwise the fire will burn the claws!
Short-term trading is the most flexible and safe way to invest in such high-risk investments as futures. As for the loss in the process of chasing short term, that is another topic. In the spring garden of riotous colors, I gather but one rosebud. One rosebud is enough.
Three conclusions from me: stop loss is important; when it’s rising, don’t buy, when it’s not falling, don’t sell; always rely on yourself.
My trading philosophy mainly includes the following:
1. Choosing the direction is the key to the success of the transaction. Or in other words, be clear whether it’s a bull market or bear market. Only by grasping the direction of the market and taking advantage of the trend, the possibility of making money is even greater.
2. Grasp the stop loss. Even if you don't have trading experience, you can control your risk by making a stop loss. 3. Fund management. This has important significance in futures investment. For example, if you can't see the market, take a small position and wait for the time to open big positions. However, investors are mostly buying more when they lose more, but when they make money, they have smaller positions.
4. When the market is not rising when there is good news, you must never buy more and vice versa.
my experience in long-term trading
Long-term trading chases the trend, takes trend as its only true friend and the source of its own profits. Long-term traders don’t pay attention to the fluctuations of prices in a day, and believe that this fluctuation of prices has nothing to do with themselves, which will make people feel that they are insensitive, even Like a fool. They don't pay attention to how the market will go the next day, and only care whether the trend is over. The endurance of long-term traders is beyond the understanding of ordinary investors and ordinary investors cannot bear.
There is a misunderstanding in the market that long-term traders can hold positions for a long time because they can predict the market trend and the end point. This is really a big misunderstanding! In fact, long-term traders do not know the future trend of the market, just like everyone else, and he just follows the discipline to track the trend.
Holding long-term positions by discipline must endure the pain that ordinary people do not understand well. It can be said that long-term profit is gained by long-term torture!
The large fluctuations in the market can easily eat most of the profits gained before. The most unbearable thing is that this kind of falling is often what you think is really happening. That is to say, you watch the profits go back and cannot do nothing, this is like someone rubs your money and you just watch it happens. Can you understand this kind of pain and can you bear?
Long-term traders have to give up many profit opportunities that they have confidence in exchange for long-term profits.
There are fewer opportunities for long-term trading, and the market is fluctuating most of the year. In the situation of fluctuation, sometimes long-term traders have been losing money, and frequently turn to loss when they are making profits. This kind of torture is enough. This kind of situation is easier said than done and will be more difficult than you think!
You seem to have a lot of mental and spiritual burdens, and are too sensitive to the short-term rise and fall of stocks. In fact, there are many subjective stereotypes in your mind that have been accepted without careful consideration and practice.
As mentioned above, many people don't pay attention to it, or don't understand it, or even ridicule it, but the fact is: 95% of the profits of American trading giant Charlie Dennis come from 5% of the transactions!
article originally from FMZ.COM
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contact me if you really are interested this, our company has a mature cryptocurrency exchange system for sell.
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you can use Python, C++, JavaScript, or (M Language, a kind of language where originally came from a Chinese futures automatic trading software, very easy to use, all the funcitons are highly integrated）， also lots of strategies you can rent buy or sell. mainly design for building your own trading bot by the easiest way.
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The tendency to control self-destruction
In his lifetime, many people still make mistake at the age of 60 that is made in his 20. Some are very successful in one area, but in other areas are full of internal conflicts. Very few can learn from setbacks. You need to understand the tendency of self-destruction and stop blaming others or luck for your loss. You must take all the responsibilities and start taking transaction log—record the process of each transaction, the reason for entering and playing. Evaluate the repetitive patterns of success and failure. If you can't learn from experience, you will have to repeat the same mistakes.
You need to open a psychological safety net, just like a climber needs a survival device. I found the principle of “Alcohol Abstinence support team” to be very helpful. In addition, strict fund management can also provide the function of safety net. If you want to solve the transaction problem through psychotherapy, please find a competent psychologist who knows how to trade. During treatment, the ultimate responsibility remains with you, you should closely monitor progress and development. I often tell my patients that if there is no obvious change within a month, there is obviously a problem with the treatment. If there is no progress within two months, you should look for another psychologist.
Your feelings will immediately affect the net worth of your account. You may have the best trading system, but if you feel scared, arrogant or annoyed, it will definitely affect your account. When you become aware of the intoxication or fear of a gambler, stop trading immediately. As a trader, success or failure depends on how you control your emotions. When you trade, you are fighting the world's first-class mind. The wrestling arena is slightly tilted and you are at a disadvantage. If you allow emotions to interfere with trading, this fight is over. You must take all your responsibilities for every transaction you make. The trade starts with your entry decision and ends with your decision to leave. An ideal trading system is not enough. Although there is a first-rate trading system, many traders are still washed out by the market because they are psychologically not prepared to win.
Violate established rules
The market will provide unlimited temptations, just like walking through the gold treasure house or the king's harem; the market will tease you, raise your greedy desire to pursue more profit, and also raise the fear of worrying about losing the existing gains. These emotions will obscure your judgment of opportunity and danger.
After a series of profit-making, most amateur traders are very impressed with their trading talents. This is indeed a feeling of self-satisfied. You believe that your realm is not restricted by any norms, and you can continue to succeed against established rules. As a result, traders began to ignore the rules they set and entered the self-destruction mode. Traders learn some knowledge, make progress, then emotions emerge and they destroy themselves. Most traders immediately returned their “profits” to the market. A truly successful trader has the ability to accumulate net worth.
The trading process should be as objective as possible, and the transaction log needs to be attached with a trend chart before and after the transaction. List all transaction data, including commission and slip price margin, and make strict rules of money management. The seriousness of your self-analysis should at least be equal to your market analysis. When I first started learning about trading, I read as much as possible about all the books on trading psychology. The advice provided by many authors is reasonable. Some emphasize discipline: "You can't let the market shake you, and you can't make decisions in the market. Make plan before trading and trade according to the plan." Others emphasize flexibility: “You cannot enter with prejudice and you should adjust according to the market conditions." Some experts recommend isolation----not listening to economic news, not reading The Wall Street Journal, not listening to the opinions of other traders---only you and the market. Other experts advocate maintaining an open mind and trying to communicate with other traders to absorb new ideas. Every suggestion seems to make sense, but they are contradictory. I continue to read, trade, and focus on the development of the system. I also continue to work in the outpatient business of psychotherapy. I never thought that these two areas would be related—until I suddenly realized a concept that changed my trading method, which came from psychopathology.
The concept of changing trading patterns
Like most psychiatrists, I have some alcoholic patients and I am a consultant to a large drug rehabilitation center. Soon after, I discovered that after the alcoholics and drug addicts participated in the “helping society” group, the recovery effect was far better than in the traditional psychotherapy environment.
Psychotherapy, medications, expensive hospital and clinic equipment, while they can keep alcoholics sober, it's hard to keep them wild awake. Most alcoholics are quickly addicted to alcohol, and if they are actively involved in the Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) or other similar group, the chances of recovery will be much greater.
When I found out that AA members had a high treatment rate, I became a loyal follower of the Alcoholics Association. I started sending alcoholic patients to AA or other similar groups, such as ACOA. Now, if a patient with alcohol problems comes to me for treatment, I insist that he also attends the AA gathering. I told him that if you don't do this, it will be a waste of our time and his money. One night many years ago, I went to a friend's office and invited him to a party in industry. There were still two hours from the start of the party. My friend asked me: "Do you want to go to a movie or to an AA party with me?" Although I have sent many patients to AA, I have not participated in this kind of trade-off because I have no problem with alcohol abuse. I have this opportunity in time to have a new experience.
The meeting place was the local “Youth Club”. In a simple room, there were about a dozen men and a few women sitting in folding chairs. The party lasts nearly an hour and I was very surprised to find that they seemed to be talking my trading situation! They talk about alcohol, but if they change “alcohol” to “loss”, their conversations are entirely applicable to me. During that period, my net worth in account was still fluctuating. When I left the “Youth Club,” I knew that my way of dealing with losses should be like AA handling alcohol.
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article originally from FMZ.COM if the code part is not clear to see, please come to here: https://www.fmz.com/bbs-topic/2710BitMEX has become the platform of choice for cryptocurrency leverage trading, but its API trading restrictions are strict and make automatic traders feeling very confused. This article mainly shares some tips on the use of APIs in the FMZ quantitative trading platform, mainly for the market making strategy. 1. Features of BitMEXThe most significant advantage is that the trading liquidity is very active, especially the Bitcoin perpetual contract, the transaction amount per minute often exceeds one million or even ten million US dollars; BitMEX pending orders trading have the policy of return commission fee, although it is not much, but attracted a large number of market making tradings, which made the price depth very rich. the latest buying and selling price often have more than one million dollars worth pending orders; because of this point, the transaction price often fluctuates around the minimum change unit of $0.50. 2.BitMEX API frequency limitThe request frequency of the REST API is limited to 300 times every 5 minutes, almost equal to 1 time every second, this limit can be said to be very strict compared to other trading platforms. After the limit is exceeded, 'Rate limit exceeded' will be prompted. If you keep exceeding the limit, the IP may be disabled for one hour. Multiple disables in a short time will result in a week being disabled. For each API request, BitMEX will return the header data, header data is used to see the current number of remaining requests. In fact, if the API is used properly, it will not exceed the frequency limit and generally does not need to be checked. 3.Use websocket to get the market quoteThe BitMEX REST API is more restrictive. The official recommendation is to use the websocket protocol more, and push more data types than the average exchange. Pay attention to the following points for specific use: If the depth data push time is too long, there will be an error, which does not correspond to the real depth. It is estimated that there are too many depth changes and there are omissions in the push, but in general, due to excellent fluidity, you can subscribe to "ticker" or "trades". The order details push is missing a lot and is almost unavailable. There is a significant delay in the push of account information, preferably using the REST API. When the market is volatile too big, the push delay will reach a few seconds. The following code uses the websocket protocol to obtain market and account information in real time, mainly for market-making strategies. The specific use needs to be performed in the main() function. var ticker = {price:0, buy:0, sell:0, time:0} //Ticker information, the latest price, "buy one" price, "sell one" price, update time
//Account information, respectively, position, buying and selling price, buying and selling quantity, position status, order Id
var info = {position:0, buyPrice:0, sellPrice:0, buyAmount:0, sellAmount:0, buyState:0, sellState:0, buyId:0, sellId:0}
var buyListId = []//Global variables, pre-emptive buying id list, will described below
var sellListId = []
var APIKEY = 'your api id' //Need to fill in the BitMEX API ID here. Note that it is not a key, which is required for websocket protocol authentication.
var expires = parseInt(Date.now() / 1000) + 10
var signature = exchange.HMAC("sha256", "hex", "GET/realtime" + expires, "{{secretkey}}")//The secretkey will be automatically replaced at the bottom level and does not need to be filled in.
var bitmexClient = Dial("wss://www.bitmex.com/realtime", 60)
var auth = JSON.stringify({args: [APIKEY, expires, signature], op: "authKeyExpires"})//Authentication information, otherwise you cannot subscribe to the account
bitmexClient.write(auth)
bitmexClient.write('{"op": "subscribe", "args": ["position","execution","trade:XBTUSD"]}')//Subscribed to positions, order execution and perpetual contract real-time transaction
while(true){
if(bitmexClient.read()){
bitmexData = JSON.parse(data)
if('table' in bitmexData && bitmexData.table == 'trade'){
data = bitmexData.data
ticker.price = parseFloat(data[data.length-1].price)//The latest transaction price, will push multiple transactions at a time, take one will be ok
//You can get the "buy one" and "sell one" price according to the direction of the latest transaction, without subscribing to the depth.
if(data[data.length-1].side == 'Buy'){
ticker.sell = parseFloat(data[data.length-1].price)
ticker.buy = parseFloat(data[data.length-1].price)-0.5
}else{
ticker.buy = parseFloat(data[data.length-1].price)
ticker.sell = parseFloat(data[data.length-1].price)+0.5
}
ticker.time = new Date(data[data.length-1].timestamp);//Update time, can be used to determine the delay
}
}else if(bitmexData.table == 'position'){
var position = parseInt(bitmexData.data[0].currentQty)
if(position != info.position){
Log('Position change： ', position, info.position, '#FF0000@')//Position change Log, and pushed to WeChat, remove @ means Do not push
info.position = position
}
info.position = parseInt(bitmexData.data[0].currentQty)
}
}BitMEX officially recommends using "bulk ordering" and "order modification" to place order. "bulk ordering" can be executed faster due to BitMEX real-time auditing, risk checking, margin calculation, and commissioning. Therefore, the frequency of the "bulk ordering" is calculated as one tenth of the normal frequency. Futhermore, our order operation should use the method of "bulk ordering" and "order modification" to minimize the use of API. The query order status also needs to consume the API using frequency. It can judge the order status according to the position change or modification order failure. "bulk ordering" does not limit the order quantity (can't be too much), in fact, a single order can also use the "bulk ordering" interface. Due to the operation of modifying the order, we can "pre-order" some orders where the price deviates greatly, these orders will not be executed, but when we need to place an order, we only need to modify the price and quantity of the placed order. when modifying the order occurs failure, it can also be used as a signal for the order to be executed. The following is the specific implementation code: // Cancel all orders and reset global variables
function cancelAll(){
exchange.IO("api","DELETE","/api/v1/order/all","symbol=XBTUSD")//Call IO extension revocation
info = {position:0, buyPrice:0, sellPrice:0, buyAmount:0, sellAmount:0, buyState:0, sellState:0, buyId:0, sellId:0}
buyListId = []
sellListId = []
}
//placing alternate order
function waitOrders(){
var orders = []
if(buyListId.length<4){
//When the number of inspections is insufficient, place another "bulk"
for(var i=0;i<7;i++){
//Due to BitMEX restrictions, the price can not be excessively excessive, the order quantity can not be too small, and the "execInst" parameter guarantees that only the market making transaction can be executed.
orders.push({symbol:'XBTUSD', side:'Buy', orderQty:100, price:ticker.buy-400+i, execInst:'ParticipateDoNotInitiate'})
}
}
if(sellListId.length<4){
for(var i=0;i<7;i++){
orders.push({symbol:'XBTUSD', side:'Sell', orderQty:100, price:ticker.buy+400+i, execInst:'ParticipateDoNotInitiate'})
}
}
if(orders.length>0){
var param = "orders=" + JSON.stringify(orders);
var ids = exchange.IO("api", "POST", "/api/v1/order/bulk", param);//Bulk orders submitted here
for(var i=0;i<ids.length;i++){
if(ids.side == 'Buy'){
buyListId.push(ids.orderID)
}else{
sellListId.push(ids.orderID)
}
}
}
}
//Modify order function
function amendOrders(order, direction, price, amount, id){
var param = "orders=" + JSON.stringify(order);
var ret = exchange.IO("api", "PUT", "/api/v1/order/bulk", param);//Modify one order at a time
//Modification occurs error
if(!ret){
var err = GetLastError()
//overloaded unmodified strategy, need to recycle the order id
if(err.includes('The system is currently overloaded')){
if(id){
if(direction == 'buy'){
buyListId.push(id)
}else{
sellListId.push(id)
}
}
Sleep(1000)
return
}
//Illegal order status, indicating that the order to be modified has been completely executed
else if(err.includes('Invalid ordStatus')){
Log(order, direction)
if(direction == 'buy'){
info.buyId = 0
info.buyState = 0
info.buyAmount = 0
info.buyPrice = 0
}else{
info.sellId = 0
info.sellState = 0
info.sellAmount = 0
info.sellPrice = 0
}
//Since the push is not timely, update the position with the "rest" protocol here.
pos = _C(exchange.GetPosition)
if(pos.length>0){
info.position = pos[0].Type == 0 ? pos[0].Amount : -pos[0].Amount
}else{
info.position = 0
}
}
//Unknown error cannot be modified, all orders are cancelled, reset once
else if(err.includes('Invalid orderID')){
cancelAll()
Log('Invalid orderID,reset once')
}
//Exceed the frequency limit, you can continue to try after hibernation
else if(err.includes('Rate limit exceeded')){
Sleep(2000)
return
}
//The account is banned, all orders are revoked, and sleep is awaiting recovery for a long time.
else if(err.includes('403 Forbidden')){
cancelAll()
Log('403,reset once')
Sleep(5*60*1000)
}
}else{
//Modify order successfully
if(direction == 'buy'){
info.buyState = 1
info.buyPrice = price
info.buyAmount = amount
}else{
info.sellState = 1
info.sellPrice = price
info.sellAmount = amount
}
}
}
//0.5 price change
function fixSize(num){
if(num>=_N(num,0)+0.75){
num = _N(num,0)+1
}else if(num>=_N(num,0)+0.5){
num=_N(num,0)+0.5
}else{
num=_N(num,0)
}
return num
}
//Trading function
function trade(){
waitOrders()//Check if you need a replacement order
var buyPrice = fixSize(ticker.buy-5) //For demonstration purposes only, specific transactions should be written by yourself.
var sellPrice = fixSize(ticker.sell+5)
var buyAmount = 500
var sellAmount = 500
//Modify from an alternate order when there is no order
if(info.buyState == 0 && buyListId.length > 0){
info.buyId = buyListId.shift()
amendOrders([{orderID:info.buyId, price:buyPrice, orderQty:buyAmount}],'buy', group, buyPrice, buyAmount, info.buyId)
}
if(info.sellState == 0 && sellListId.length > 0){
info.sellId = sellListId.shift()
amendOrders([{orderID: info.sellId, price:sellPrice, orderQty:sellAmount}],'sell', group, sellPrice, sellAmount, info.sellId )
}
//Existing orders need to change price
if(buyPrice != info.buyPrice && info.buyState == 1){
amendOrders([{orderID:info.buyId, price:buyPrice, orderQty:buyAmount}],'buy', group, buyPrice, buyAmount)
}
if(sellPrice != info.sellPrice && info.sellState == 1){
amendOrders([{orderID:info.sellId, price:sellPrice, orderQty:sellAmount}],'sell', group, sellPrice, sellAmount)
}
} BitMEX's server is in the Amazon's server in Dublin, Ireland. The server running strategy ping is less than 1ms when you choose a AWS cloud sever in Dublin, but when there is still a delay in pushing, the overload problem cannot be solved. In addition, when the account is logged in, the server agent cannot be located in the United States and other places where don't allow cryptocurrency tradings. Due to the regulation, the account will be banned. The code in this article has been modified from my personal strategy and is not guaranteed to be completely correct for reference. The specific use of the market code should be executed in the main function, the trading-related code is placed before the main function, and the trade() function is placed in the push market quote. article originally from FMZ.COM if the code part is not clear to see, please come to here: https://www.fmz.com/bbs-topic/2710
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article originally from FMZ.COM
Guide Reading:
Trading is a tough game. If a trader wants to be truly successful, he must take a serious look at what he is doing. He banned the drafting rate and could not enter the market under some potential psychological emotional stimuli.
Unfortunately, the market often attracts people who are not suitable for this: impulsive traders, gamblers, or critics who believe that the world owes him a lot. If you are trading for stimuli, you may accept some transactions that are less successful, or take unnecessary risks. The market will never be soft, and not care about your temper. The emotional transaction has only one consequence---loss.
Gambling
Gambling is a bet based on skill or analysis opportunities, hoping to win the lottery. This behavior is common in society. Most people have been gambling in their whole lives. Freud believes that gambling has a universal temptation because it is a substitute for masturbation. There are many connections between gambling and masturbation: repetitive stimulating behaviors in the hands, irresistible desires, determination of abstinence, addictive pleasures and feelings of sin. Dr. Ralph Greenson, an outstanding psychoanalyst in California, classifies gamblers into three categories: normal people gamble for pleasure and they can stop at any time; professional gamblers who choose gamble for a living; morbid gamblers who are gambling based on the needs of the subconscious, have no ability to restrain or stop.
A sick gambler either feels that he is "fortunate" or wants to test his luck. Winning can bring the feeling of power. A sick gambler is destined to be a loser, because he only wants to rebuild the omnipotent pleasure and not focus on the long-term game plan in real world. Dr. Buren, chief executive of the South Oak Hospital abstinent gambling center in New York, claimed that gambling is “addiction with no drug”. Most gamblers are men, they gamble for pursuit, and women usually evade by gambling. Losers often disguise their losses and try to behave like winners, but in the end, they cannot escape the torture of self-doubt.
Trading in stocks, futures or options markets allows gamblers to enjoy the climax they need and seems normal. In addition, gambling in financial markets seems to be more knowledgeable, with a layer of carefully calculated color, compared to shouting in casinos. When the trade is easy, the gambler will get dizzy with it; when the loss occurs, it will be dejected. They are totally different from successful professional traders, the latter focusing on long-term plans and being not excited by short-term gains, or frustrated by losses. The broker knows very well that many clients are gamblers. They try to avoid leaving message to the customer's wife as much as possible, even if it is for the return of the transaction. Gamblers are not entirely from amateurs, and many professional traders have this problem. Sonny Kleinfield mentioned in his work The Traders that floor traders generally tend to gamble, especially for sports games. The main symptom of pathological gambling is that you can't resist the desire to the game. If you feel that your trade is too frequent and the results are poor, it is best to stop trading for a month and give yourself the opportunity to reassess the trading. If the desire for trading is so strong, there is really no way to stay outside the market for a month. The “abstinent gambling center” is probably the place where you should go.
Self-destruction
Years of experience have convinced me that most of the failures in life are caused by self-destruction. In the profession, the failure between career and interpersonal relationship is not because of stupidity, but to achieve the desire for failure in the subconscious.
I have a brilliant friend who has been destroying himself in his whole life. When he was a young man, he was a very successful salesman, but he was fired; he was trained to be a broker, almost climbed up to the top position of the company, but was charged for some reason; then he became a famous trader, but he still couldn't get out of the previous disaster and failed. He blamed all the jealous directors, the incompetent law enforcement officers and the less considerate wives. In the end, he was very down and out of work and money. But then he got an opportunity to make a comeback and began to climb to the peak of success. At this time, he spoke to Asia and continued to trade on the way. At the stage of the speech, he went to a country known for being pornographic, but left a large uncovered position without a stop loss. When he returned to the civilized world, the market had a major trend, and the funds managed were swept away. Does he try to understand his own problem? Does he try to change it? No - he blamed his broker!
It is an extremely painful procedure to reflect on the inner causes of your failure. When traders get into trouble, they are used to blaming others, luck or anything else.
A very good trader came to my clinic and his account was hit by a wave of rising of dollar. His childhood was spent in the shadow of his father's brutality. Everyone in the trading circle knows that he is very good at placing huge bets on the reverse of a given trend. This time, he continued to add short positions because he could not admit that the market -- representing his father -- was stronger than him.
These are just two examples, but they can show how people's behavior stems from the psychology of self-destruction. We act like impulsive children rather than wise adults - destroying and striking ourselves, and we are caught in a self-destructive mode; but it can be avoided - failure is a treatable disease.
Competition of great destruction
Almost all industries offer some kind of safety net to their members, and supervisors, colleagues, or customers will remind you when you present a dangerous behavior of self-destruction. The transaction does not provide this, so its danger is much higher than other human behaviors, and the market offers many opportunities for self-destruction and there is no safety net.
Every member of the society will put some of their efforts to guard against the consequences of mistakes. When driving, you avoid hitting other vehicles, and other vehicles will avoid hitting you. If a car suddenly opens the door, you will get out of the way. On the highway, if someone suddenly cuts into your lane, you might wanna "fuck", but still slow down the car. You avoid car accidents, because the price paid by both parties is too high. In the market, people lack normal mutual support psychology. Every trader wants to crash and destroy each other, and each trader will be injured by others. On the freeway of the transaction, there are sorrows and despair, and there are broken vehicles left over from the accident. Trading is the most dangerous human behavior, second only to war. Buying at the high point is like opening the door suddenly in the traffic, the traders rushing to sell to you----crashing your door, including your hand. Inside. Trading opponents want you to fail because they want to take possession of your losses.
To be continued.
article originally from FMZ.COM
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any market, they all need liquidity, bubble are the liquidity provider. it also the best tool for us to make a fortune.
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article originally from FMZ.COMGuide Reading:The ten basic guidelines generally acknowledged by the US futures industry are based on the summary of the trading veterans and experts in the US futures industry. The following are the top ten basic guidelines for futures trading. (1) learn before actThe mistake that some novices often make is that they don't know what they should do when they enter the market and they know nothing about the market. They never take the time to observe how the market moves and then take their money to take risks. Usually when people want to do something, they always observe first, then act. If you want to learn to dance, you have to watch how other people dance, and then try it. However, 80% of those people entering the market will stop trading after 12 months. The fundamental cause is that they are not starting from the first step. Traders should carefully review every detail of their trading system, know the errors that may occur in the system, or the various ways in which they may succeed. This process of education should include identified trading motivations, strategies, how to execute transactions, frequency of transactions, and transaction costs. Because of the commission, the higher the frequency of trading, the faster your profit will be consumed. Also consider your own personal characteristics in terms of the content of the transaction and the method of trading. Motivation is very important. Some successful traders can stay in the futures industry for a long time because they like trading. They don't let the desire to make big money disrupt their trading decisions. Some successful futures traders believe that earning money is not a good motivation. If using trading system to trade, the trading system should be tested repeatedly to know the possibility of losing. They must know their advantages on methodology, work habits, and specialization. If they don't know these advantages, they will take great risks. (2) Reduce loss in timeWhen you are losing money, you must act decisively, stop trading, and reduce losses. When your trading position is profitable, let it grow further. This is an old creed. Many traders repeat this creed. The problem that many newcomers often make is that they hold positions losing money and they think the market will reverse. When their positions are profiting, they sell too early. They are eager to get initial profit and lose the opportunity to make their earnings grow. They are afraid that the profits gained will run away. Successful traders always earn large amount of money by using a small amount of money to compensate for small losses. The usual psychology of novices is to get out of the market as soon as they are profitable. If it’s profiting, they will accept instead of letting profits continue to grow. To expand profits, newcomers in the futures industry must learn to restrain the desire to be satisfied by small profits. The latter is very difficult to do. (3) Compliance with discipline is crucialSome disciplined traders who use a repeatedly tested trading system always make money. Those who lack a code of conduct often fail to adhere to consistent trading practices. In the transaction, making frequent changes and lacking consistency will destroy all profit opportunities. The advantages of some good trading systems need to be reflected by persistence. If you arbitrarily change or abandon a trading system or plan, then you have no trading system or plan at all. Some veteran traders believe that when you change or abandon a trading system just after losing, it may be the turning point for the trading system to make money. It is therefore important to maintain a consistent trading behavior. (4) Focus on the trading processExperienced traders emphasize that the whole process of trading should be focused rather than making money. Some well-known traders believe that losing money in futures trading is inevitable, and loss is an inevitable part of the trading process. Traders who focus on making money are likely to lose money. They can't deal with the inevitable decline in the investment process. When they make money, they are very emotional excited, and when they lose money, they are downcast or even panicking. It is not a good phenomenon of having emotions instability during the transaction. It is necessary to calmly focus on the whole process of trading. Futures traders cannot predict the direction of the market and what will happen to the market, but they can control the trading process. In fact, what they can control is only the trading process. The biggest problem for newcomers in the futures market is paying attention to making money and losing money, not the trading process. Some old traders said, if you are afraid of losing money, why do trading? You trade 10, 15 or 20 times, and surely one of them is a loss-making transaction. (5) Know when to go out of the marketTraders should know when to take positions out of the market. No matter what kind of the system they use, they know when they must leave. This helps traders get rid of the having two minds and stick to one system, which can also help reduce losses. A stop loss order can be set to reduce losses. The market does not necessarily agree with your timing of entering the market, and the market is not interested in when you leave the market. The market is always operated according to its own rules. You must set the stop loss order according to the laws of the market operation. Considering that sometimes when your trading position has a loss, it is the moment of the turnaround, so you can't make the stop loss order too rigid. When placing a stop loss order, the turbulence of the market needs to be considered. Instructions should be based on an indicator of the market. For example, an average of market prices is usually the lowest price at a certain stage. Some traders set up stop-loss orders very casually, regardless of how the market operates. In this way they are likely to lose money. If the basis for the prescribed market order is a certain amount, the amount of money lost is often reduced, but the number of transactions for losing money is increased. If you set the stop loss order too rigid, you may have a series of bad transactions. There is a basis “avoiding wishful trading” for leaving, which is hoping for a reverse when loss occurs. (6) Manage your fundsSenior traders recommend a percentage of funds that are prepared to take risks, which can be 2% or 3%. Never change it. Maintaining a consistent percentage of the risk of investment is a very important criterion. Some newcomers think that one or two transactions can make a lot of money, which is lying to themselves. This is a big difference between professional traders and amateur traders. This is the management of losses. Set a risk percentage for your own funds, you can reduce the size of the transaction in the case of continuous losses, maintain capital, limit the extent of the loss, limit the withdrawal of funds due to the number of contracts reduced. In this way, the scale of the transaction can be achieved in line with the size of the capital. When some newcomers encounter a loss in their position, they often cannot afford a temptation: take risks with bigger capital and look forward to reversing the loss situation. The more you take the risk, the bigger the loss will be. Reasonable money management is diversification of risk. (7) Be in line with the trend: "Trend is your friend"This is a repetitive sentence said by some old futures traders and the only route must be taken by futures trading. Successful traders believe that it is not important to predict the direction and ups and downs of the market, but to follow the trend. Many traders are advised to follow the trend of market development. In other words, it is to follow the trend of the market until the end of it. The advice of some experienced futures traders is: Never make comments on market or express opinions. The general trend of market development is your friend. You just follow the trend. Let the market tell you which direction you should go. A well-known futures trader once said that when the market forms a big trend, it is time to make money; when the market develops turnouts, you can't make big money. ( Do be emotional in tradingExperienced traders caution that you should not trade with your emotions. Keeping your mind steady is pivotal. This is especially important when doing futures trading. Professional traders emphasize: Remember that the market is not an individual's behavior. They believe that the loss of money is often caused by emotions. Some newcomers often forget everything and trade with emotions. They must be repeated over and over, lacking consistency and they can't think clearly about the problem. It is important to develop a trading method and stick to it. If the method works, discipline and patience are the keys to making money. Trading newcomers are easy to be emotional, while good traders are not like this. Don't insist that a position is correct and that the market is wrong. The market is always right. The market has nothing to do with your opinions and positions. (9) Think about who is losing moneyAn interesting way for some well-known traders to arrange their trades is to think about who you are going to make money from. Everyone who enters the market obviously wants to make money, but not everyone can make money. There are always people losing money. When you make money, someone loses money. Futures trading veterans believe that you should know who you are going to get profit from. If you buy and think you are right, then the one you sell to also thinks he is right. People need to make money from those who think wrong. That is of course true. Some trend traders, or big traders, usually make money from hedgers. Because hedgers usually sell when the market rises, and buy when the market falls. (10) Always maintain a humble attitudeThose who think they are smarter than everyone else on the market think they are always lucky. Their views will not last long. It should be humble in the face of the market. Otherwise the market will let you know that bad attitude will be problematic and will make you humble. This is what a very famous trader said. Some traditional views are often wrong. When you think that the information you have is very valuable, maybe others have already mastered this information. Experienced futures traders believe that these guidelines are the key to survive in futures market and lead to success. Violation of these guidelines will lead to bankruptcy. In cruel speculation, following these guidelines can avoid becoming a “lamb on the altar”. The reason some amateur traders can never become professional traders is to fail to comply with these trading rules. As long as one or more trading rules are violated, when no one can overcome the weakness of humanity, these newcomers are difficult to survive under the brutal test of the market. article originally from FMZ.COM
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even if you want hold it for a long period of time, you still need some plans to to it, a scheduled fund management should be considered. for example, you can use every 10% of your monthly income to buy bitcoin no matter the price is, at certain time of a month. just buy it , a year or later, you may find some surprises. if you really have confidence with certain cryptocurrency, just never sell, only sell it when it has profit.
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article originally from fmz.com
In the blockchain circle, I’ve known a lot of friends, and I have been asked this question many times: "the bubble in blockchain is big or not?” I always answer:” It is not bubble, not even a small bubble.”
The friends who got such answer don't seem very happy, because they didn't get the ones they expected. In fact, they have already determined that the blockchain industry has a huge bubble.
Why do they think that there is a huge bubble in this industry? Because everyone can easily cite a lot of severely broken “air coins” and tell stories of ordinary investors being “harvested” by project parties or institutions; even the model of the public chain like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been reduced from 60% or even over 90%. So, is there a bubble in the blockchain, how can we better understand whether there is a bubble in the blockchain?
First, the blockchain bubble is different from other industries.
When we are talking about a bubble in an industry, what we mean is that the money entering the industry is higher than the value that the industry can produce or carry, so there may be a bubble in this industry.
For example, there is a bubble in real estate, a bubble in the stock market, and a bubble in the Internet. This is because a large amount of money has entered these industries, which may lead to excessive valuations, prices and P/E ratio in these industries. FMZ
But what is the difference of the blockchain industry? We thought that the funds that entered the industry did not actually enter the industry. In other words, the money that most of the “blockchain projects” have accumulated does not have any value to the blockchain industry.
Most of the ordinary blockchain investors and most of the blockchain project teams are just "pretending to play blockchain." Just as we don't say that there is a bubble in MLM, there is a bubble in funds, and there is a bubble in health products, we also don't say that there is a bubble in something that has no value.
Therefore, "air coins", "MLM coins" and so on are not part of the blockchain industry. They are scams draped in blockchain outerwear. The relevant project parties and investment institutions only swindle according to their routines, but this time the gimmick is the blockchain. The money they cheated will hardly be injected into the blockchain industry, and the so-called "market value" will be meaningless.
Maybe you think that you are investing in a blockchain project. In fact, it is only helping those scammers who have mixed into the blockchain industry to buy fancy cars, houses or yachts.
The "investment in blockchain" is just a common fantasy of most ordinary investors. Therefore, as I mentioned later, the analysis of whether there is a bubble in the blockchain industry has filtered out the scam blockchain projects that swindle money, referring only to the “real blockchain industry.” Because such a discussion makes sense. FMZ
Second, the blockchain industry does not have the bubble you imagine
So is there any bubble in the blockchain industry? Presumably, many people who are concerned about the development of the blockchain industry have discovered that blockchain and bitcoin have begun to have a different direction. Bitcoin is regarded as a better stored value tool than gold; and the blockchain public chain project represented by Ethereum wants to take the blockchain technology and services to a higher level.
Is there a bubble in Bitcoin? I don’t think so. In fact, for an asset (currency) with very strong liquidity, it is meaningless to discuss whether there is a bubble. Just as we will not discuss whether there is a bubble in the hard currency such as the US dollar, gold, oil, etc., and few people will care about their cost, most people only care about their current price.
Back to the public chain project, let’s take Ethereum for example. The basis for many people to judge whether there is a bubble is that Ethereum has dropped from the highest price of 10,000RMB at the beginning of the year to about 1300RMB now, so it is determined that the Ethereum at that time must have a bubble.
I think that there are two reasons for the skyrocketing of Ethereum at that time:
First, the market is driven. There is always a bull market in the market for financial attributes. When the bull market is coming, all blockchain assets will rise. It is hard to say that there is a bubble.
Second, short-term short supply. A large number of project parties needed to raise ETH. A large number of people who invested in the project needed to use ETH, which led to the ETH in the market being speculated.
Now, in the blockchain project, the tokens are not hot like before, and fewer people are staying. ETH has turned from shot supply to oversupply, and the project parties that have raised a large number of ETHs have gradually realized the change of supply and demand, which is bound to trigger throwing pressure. Such a selling of panic sentiment has intensified the plunging of ETH prices, so the price of ETH has returned to the starting point. Therefore, I believe that the collapse of Ethereum is caused by the change of supply and demand and panic, and cannot be attributed to the bubble.
If the price is high, there is a bubble, is there a bubble in the 40 US dollar ETH at the beginning of 2017? It has risen 50 times compared to the issue price. In many cases, this is only human nature. We cannot simply judge whether there is a bubble based on the skyrocketing price and the plunge.
Therefore, I don’t think that there are bubbles in the real blockchain projects that are dedicated to the development, exploration and breakthrough of blockchain technology, because their value is currently difficult to measure. FMZ
Third. Is there a bubble in project financing?
So is there a bubble in each segment of the blockchain? Let's compare these parts: head media, mining machine manufacturers, wallet teams.
Blockchain head media: 8BTCnews, so far financing 100 million RMB. As a comparison, the technology-based head media is 36Kr, and so far it has raised 300 million RMB.
Mining machine manufacturer: BITMAIN, $1 billion, F-round.
Wallet team: imToken, this should be no doubt the head wallet app. So far, the financing of 10 million US dollars, A round.
Note: The above data are all from ITJUZI.
The financing data of these head projects is obviously not a "bubble" in terms of their industry status.
Fourth, comparison with other Internet forefront at the same level
As the hottest thing of Internet in 2017-2018, the financing scale of blockchain is very small compared with other industries, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, virtual reality, sharing economy, intelligent hardware, etc. In other words, if we force the blockchain to be classified in the Internet bubble, the scale of blockchain industry is very small.
See the green arrow pointing to the blockchain asset size.
Obviously, putting the market value of blockchain assets into the financial market, its scale is not worth mentioning..
Summary
"There will be an interesting phenomenon in the early days of the technological revolution, that is, backward technology will ridicule new technologies. Abacus ridiculed calculator, keyboard ridiculed mouse, mouse ridiculed touch function, touch function ridiculed voice function, naturally breathing ridiculed turbocharger, film ridiculed digital cameras, carriages ridiculed cars, Nokia and Dell ridiculed Apple, paper media ridiculed websites... but new technology will not do this. The mission of new technology is to win the market and eliminate backwards by the way." When new technology comes, there are always people who are afraid of missing opportunities, blindly chasing the wind, and eventually leading to a bubble. However, there is currently no bubble for blockchain -- the most recent innovation in the history of “currency” and “finance”. Even some quality projects are significantly underestimated because of people's panic.
All of the above opinions are not used as investment references and are analyzed by China data. Although there is no bubble in the blockchain industry, it does not mean that there is no risk.
Finally, I share a law for everyone.
Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
article originally from fmz.com
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From a higher dimension, we are all products of survivor bias, no matter the loser or winner, but the significance of risk management is that although it will lose, but it will never lead to nothing left at all in real life. trading strategy design and execution is make sure of this point.
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dude, r u still hang in there?
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after last year's falling, i think some ICO projects which are still exists are really future-promising. right now it's a good time for schedule investment. for example, use every 10% of your monthly income to buy bitcoin no matter what the price is, keep it this way until next year, you may find some surprises. if not, this kind of money you can affordable to loose
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article originally from fmz.com
1.
The reason why the method is effective
The effectiveness of the money-making method is contradictory to the effectiveness of the market. Scholars believe that: since everyone comes to the stock market to make money, they will inevitably find and use the methods of making money. If they all use these methods, the result is this method will lose effectiveness. The result of all people making money is not profits but to make the market effective. But this is only a theoretical imagination. The market in reality is far from effective. It is still providing opportunities for some of the best players in the stock market to make money. The continued success of many people proves this. Why are these methods of making money still effective?
The root cause to the failure of the method of making money is that this method is used by everyone. Conversely, if a method of making money is not available to everyone, then it will not lose effectiveness.
Therefore, an effective method of making money must be a method that cannot be used by everyone. There must be some reasons behind this method that people cannot or will not use it. The more powerful the reason is, the more effective this method is.
2.
The effectiveness lacks guarantee
Among the various reasons that hinder people from using a method of making money, the most profound one reason that all methods have in common is the lack of certain guarantees of their effectiveness. Because of the fear of the market not giving opportunity, people can't use any method with confidence, so there won’t be situation that a method is used by everyone. This is the fundamental guarantee that people will not use the same method.
There is a very interesting loop here: if everyone uses the same method, then this method is ineffective, so the necessary condition for effectiveness is that it cannot used by everyone. Since there is no reason to absolutely prevent people from using a method, there is no way to absolutely satisfy this requirement in the stock market. But the fact that the necessary conditions are not met is in turn the most profound reason that hinders people from using a method, which makes it impossible to use the same method in fact.
Therefore, in a relative sense, any method of making money naturally has this necessary condition.
3.
Human nature barrier
Another reason for people not to use the method of making money is the psychological barrier of people. When people choose the method, they do not actually follow the principle of winning, but show their preference. Some methods are always effective in practice but not many people use them, while others often lose in practice and are still preferred.
Psychological preference has two effects. On the one hand, it acts like an invisible net to block some methods of making money; on the other hand, it’s like a gravitational field, attracting people to those methods of losing money. The more powerful the reason for this psychological preference is, the stronger the net or gravitational field is, and in accordance with it, the more guaranteed the effectiveness of making money method and losing money method will be.
There are several reasons for the psychological barriers. First, the profit is too small to reach people's psychological expectations. For example, a method that can earn 5 percent in a year but can only earn 5% will be used by only few people. Second, there are a lot of profits, but there are too few opportunities. People can't stand the long-term waiting. For example, a method that only operates once a year is hard to accept. Third, it is profitable and there are opportunities, but the success rate is too low, and you must stop the loss frequently. For example, if a method is quite good in continuous use, but the success rate is only 20%, then people will certainly not tend to use; Fourth, there are no above shortcomings, but it is too unreasonable and hard to believe. For example, there are some schools based on mysterious figures or the eight diagrams of Zhouyi, and their methods are difficult for most people to believe.
The opposite of the above shortcomings is what people prefer. If a method seems to be profitable, has many opportunities and a high success rate, and makes sense, then even if it lose repeatedly, people will prefer it. These psychological barriers and preferences are shared by people, reflecting the regularity of deep psychology, that is, human nature.
4.
Mental retardation
Most people prefer to accept challenges to their intelligence rather than face their own psychological barriers. Therefore, the method with high difficulty and high income is the goal that people pursue, and the method with low difficulty and low income is dismissed. People like to squeeze in those directions that seem most suitable and do not need to overcome their psychological barriers. The result is that these seemingly optimal directions have become the most competitive direction, and the result of competition has created another barrier. This is the barrier of difficulty.
There are not many people with particularly high IQs or extremely low IQs. If a method is too difficult and only a few high-intelligence people can master, then even if everyone wants to use, it is doomed that only a small number of people can become successful.
This is like playing chess. When playing chess, it is easy for people to exclude various psychological obstacles from analyzing and calculating. However, because the calculation of chess is very complicated, people's level will naturally form a pyramidal distribution, a small number of people in a higher level while most people only reaching the middle or lower level. It's not that they don't want to improve their level, but their intellectual conditions limit their ability to reach high level.
The psychological barriers are problem of whether people willing to use, and the difficulty barrier is the question of whether the method can be used. For example, using a game perspective to comprehensively analyze various stock market information, comprehensive decision-making is a very difficult method. It requires a certain IQ to be the basis, but also a wealth of experience, but if you master it, you may get high income. The difficulty of game analysis is that it is a research method rather than an analytical method, because each stock is different every time, there is no simple method, and it must be comprehensively analyzed according to the game, which is not something that everyone can master.
5.
Barrier of objective condition
In the stock market, people's objective conditions are different, so some methods can only be used by a few people. For example, a person with a large amount of money can set traps for retail investors while others cannot. For another example, a small number of people can legally or illegally obtain insider information that others do not have in various channels. They operate according to such information while others cannot.
Psychological barriers in principle can be overcome by everyone; although intellectual barriers cannot be overcome by everyone, but after all, people can work on it. On this point people are equal; but objective conditions are an insurmountable obstacle, and those who do not have the conditions cannot use some methods.
Such barrier reflects the inequality of the stock market, and the method based on it is unfair to others. The first two barriers will continually be overcome, but not this kind barrier of objective condition.
6.
Reverse
Among the above barriers, the factors that the effectiveness of the method lacking guarantee are the same for all methods. The barrier of objective condition cannot be overcome by most normal person. Therefore, the main barriers that people can overcome through subjective efforts are mental retardation and psychological barrier. The nature of these two barriers is different. The efforts to overcome mental retardation are directed to the outside, and it’s to defeat the market. Efforts to overcome psychological barriers point to the internal, and it’s to overcome yourself. Overcoming yourself is the foundation for defeating the market and a necessary condition for success. On this basis, a certain method can be added to make success a reality.
For example, the ideal of Taoist is to reverse the process of life aging to achieve immortality. The method is to use Kung Fu to recreate a life process that is completely opposite to ordinary people. The fundamental difference between immortality and human beings is that ordinary people follow the flow of life, and the immortals are against the flow of life.
Due to negative factors like transaction commission, the overall trend in the stock market is a loss. To be a successful player in the stock market is also against the flow. The nature of human beings is to pursue more profit, more opportunities, and higher success rate. To become a fairy in the stock market, we must go against the flow, against human nature.
Therefore, the winners in the stock market must have something different from ordinary people in their character. This is the inherent guarantee that they will surpass others to become the successful minority. The traits of these characters are generally born, only a few people have it. If an ordinary person wants to have these characteristics, he must train himself in long term and learn to reverse his harmful nature.
article originally from fmz.com
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sorry, i didn't know this article is come from somewhere else, if you feel uncomfortable, i will just delete it.
just feel this is a good article.
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article originally from FMZ.COM
Bitcoin Fees Explained
People often claim that with Bitcoin "you can send money between any two points on earth for free". While that is true in some cases, sometimes a transaction fee is required. The fee, when it is required, is usually worth a few dollars.
The fees go to the miners to incentivise them to keep mining, which in turn keeps the Bitcoin network secure. They already get a reward of 12.5 XBT for each block they mine, but this reward halves every 4 years. The plan is that as the block reward diminishes over the time, it will be replaced by transaction fees.
So what decides when you have to pay, and how much?
Well, like everything else in Bitcoin, the fee structure is built into the network rules, which are defined as "what the reference client does". When you attempt to send coins using bitcoin core(the current reference client), it goes through the following steps:
1. PICK WHICH COINS TO SPEND
The client has to decide which of your coins to use to make up the payment amount. Each time you receive a payment, the payment goes into your wallet and stays there until you spend it.
If you receive a payment of 2 XBT and another of 3 XBT, you'll have 2 new amounts in your wallet, of 2 XBT and 3 XBT. They don't "merge" into a single 5 XBT coin. Over time you'll build up a collection of differently sized amounts in your wallet, and the client needs to decide which ones make the best fit for the amount you're trying to spend.
These amounts are known as the "inputs" of your new transaction, and the amounts you are sending (including any change that gets sent back to your own wallet) are known as the "outputs".
2. DISCOURAGE "DUST" SPAM
If any of the outputs (including any change) of your transaction are less than 0.01 XBT, then a fee of 0.0001 XBT is required. The coin selection algorithm is careful to avoid selecting coins that result in a change amount of less than 0.01 XBT if at all possible.
3. PRIORITIZE OLD AND HIGH-VALUE COINS
If the coins you're spending are too small or too new then your transaction won't qualify as free. Each transaction is assigned a priority, determined by the age, size, and number of its inputs.
Specifically, for each input, the client calculates the value of the input in XBT multiplied by the age of the input in blocks. It sums these products over all inputs and divides the total by the size of the transaction in bytes. If this gives a number less than 0.576 then the transaction requires a fee. This means that you can include lots of very small, and/or very new inputs in a transaction and have it require no fees at all so long as you include a large old input along with them; it is the average value-times-age that matters.
If step 3 caused a transaction to require a fee when it was originally sent, it's possible that as time passes, and new blocks are found, the transaction's inputs will age, its priority will increase, and as a result step 3 may no longer cause it to require a fee.
4. CHARGE PER KILOBYTE
Finally, the client checks the size of the transaction in bytes. The size depends on the numbers of inputs and outputs, and is roughly:
148 * number_of_inputs + 34 * number_of_outputs + 10
If this size is less than 10,000 bytes and step 3 found that the transaction's priority was high enough to qualify as free, then the transaction still qualifies as free, otherwise a fee is required. The fee is charged per 1000 bytes or part thereof. The amount charged per 1000 bytes defaults to 0.0001 XBT, but can be increased in the Settings>Options>Main tab of the client. If you set the "fee per kB" to less than 0.0001 XBT in that dialog then a value of 0.0001 XBT will be used. When it applies, this fee per kB replaces any fee from step 2, rather than adding to it.
All these rules are visible in the reference client's source code. See CTransaction::GetMinFee() in src/main.cpp, AllowFree() in src/main.h, and CWallet::CreateTransaction() in src/wallet.cpp.
Examples
1. WHEN TOO MUCH IS NOT ENOUGH...
Suppose you have only two outputs in your wallet, worth 1 XBT and 2 XBT. You want to buy something for 2.999 XBT. The coin selection code has no choice; it has to select both coins to get a big enough total to make the transaction. That means the change will be 0.001 XBT, which triggers the 0.0001 XBT fee for having an output that's less than 0.01 XBT. As a result your transaction will fail, because the amount you're sending plus the fee is more than you have.
What this means is that there's no way of spending 2.999 XBT when you have 3 XBT. You could send the full 3 XBT to the vendor without a fee (assuming the outputs are sufficiently old to satisfy step 3), but some vendors ask you to send the exact amount they specify.
2. THE BIG DICE WINNER
Once, someone got lucky and turned 0.02 XBT into 1280 XBT on a 64000x payout bet on a bitcoin 'dice' game! When the site paid out the winnings they didn't have a single 1280 XBT input lying around in their wallet. Instead what they had was a whole bunch of various sized outputs from other players' losing bets, as well as a lot of change from paying other winners.
The transaction the site created to pay the winner of this jackpot used so many inputs that it ended up being 51,203 bytes long. Being over 10000 bytes, this required a fee of 0.0005 XBT per 1000 bytes or part thereof (prior to being changed to 0.0001, the fee used to be 0.0005), so the required fee was 52 * 0.0005 = 0.026 XBT. That's more than the player bet in the first place. Who says Bitcoin transactions are free!
Of course, this is still less than you would pay in fees if you used PayPal to transfer $40,000.
Note that the dice game actually included a fee of 0.0286 XBT, which is more than is required. That's probably because they don't use the standard satoshi client to create their transactions, and the client they used got it slightly wrong.
3. PUSHING THE LIMIT
This transaction just barely qualified as being free. It's 9999 bytes long, which is the biggest a transaction can be without requiring a fee. Notice also that all but one of the inputs are only 10 nXBT (0.00000001 XBT); the single large input that was included with them was big enough to bring its priority up enough to make it free.
ARE "REQUIRED" FEES REALLY REQUIRED?
Incidentally, the concept of "required fee" isn't strictly enforced. Some miners don't follow the rules about what fees are required, and will include a transaction in their blocks even if it doesn't follow the fee rules. Using the "raw transactions" interface of the reference client it's possible to create transactions with less than the required amount of fee. Such transactions may eventually be included in a block by a maverick miner who doesn't enforce the fee rules, although this could take 24 hours or even much longer.
So it's all pretty complex, but hopefully this gives you a better understanding of how and why the client decides when and how much to charge you.
article originally from FMZ.COM
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the real decentralized stage still got a long way to go!  |
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article originally from fmz.com https://blog.mathquant.com/2018/12/10/how-to-grasp-the-trend-in-investment-operation-trading.htmlFirst, be good at identifying trends.There is a saying called “Trend is your friend”. Finding the main line of the trend will help investors grasp the market as a whole and will not be confused by short-term market fluctuations. A graphical analysis of the weekly trend line and the monthly trend line is very suitable for identifying longer-term trends. Second, we must recognize the support and resistance.The support and resistance levels are points in the chart that are subject to constant downward or upward pressure. The support level is usually the lowest point in the chart (hourly, weekly or yearly), while the resistance is the highest point in the chart. When these points show a trend that can be reproduced, they are considered to be support and resistance. The best time to buy or sell is near the support or resistance that is not easily broken. However, once these points are broken, they tend to be reverse barriers. That is to say, in the uptrend, the resistance level that has been broken may become the support level for the upward trend thereafter; in the downtrend, once the support level is broken, it will turn into the resistance level. 1. In addition, the trend line is also a simple and practical tool in judging the direction of the market. A straight line connecting two consecutive lows or highs, the extension line will help investors judge the market’s running path, and the extension will also become the support line or resistance line.A special form of trend line is the channel, which consists of two parallel trend lines. The two lines represent the corridors where the price trend is up, down or horizontal. 2. After recognizing the validity of the trend, the moving average becomes one of the important indicators in technical analysis, which reflects the average price at a particular time in a particular period.(www.fmz.com)Of course, the moving average has its shortcomings, which are lags, so it does not necessarily serve as a sign of a trend shift. The solution to this problem is to use a shorter-period moving average instead of a longer-period moving average. For example, the 5-day moving average will reflect the recent price trend more than the 30-day moving average. But the more common method is to compare the moving averages of different periods. A buy signal is sent when the short-term moving average up crosses the long-term moving average; likewise, the sell signal is prompted when the short-term moving average down crosses the long-term moving average. There are three different moving averages in mathematics: simple arithmetic moving average, weighted moving average, and squared coefficient weighted average (EMA). The last of these is the preferred method because it gives more weight to the most recent data. Third, the use of trend linesThe trend line is actually the essence of Dow Theory. After knowing most of the technical analysis, the master of technical analysis Murphy found that using the trend line and the simple moving average, MACD indicator can be operated very well. It stands to reason that as long as you master the trend line, you can make a good profit. But the problem now is that the false breakouts and the slowness of the trend have caused us to have problems in use. Let me first talk about some of my personal ways of using trend lines. The trend line has three roles. 1. Is indicative of trends. This is the most basic aspect. Almost every friend who has been in the business knows. It is the connection between the high and low points. Indicates the completion of a trend. Among them, two trend lines can form channels, triangles, wedges, horns, etc.; four trend lines can form a diamond shape.2. It is an indication area, which can be regarded as running in one channel, but the area is mostly narrow, and the amplitude is usually between 10 and 50 points on the hourly chart, and the day chart is between 100–400 points. And often cannot break through, once it breakthrough, it will form a wave trend of market. This kind of squatting area is similar to the sharp of a box, but it can’t be simply said to be a box. This is a long and short position dispute area, usually before some important data comes out, or the holidays time. As long as the breakthrough is broken, it is the time to follow up. This can be said to be a very effective way.
3. It is indicative of a turning point. There are two kinds of turning points here, one is the turning of the trend in space, and the other is the turning in time and space.
Fourth, the six major elements of accurately determine the general trendAccording to the research and analysis of economic and financial, judging the long and short trend of the stock market, and grasping its development trend, at least the following signs are available for reference: 1. According to various economic indicators and economic countermeasures signals issued by relevant government departments, analyze whether economic growth tends to decline, such as economic growth forecasts issued by relevant government departments, monthly growth rate of industrial production, unemployment rate, and various leading indicators. All important information is revealed. If the economy shows signs of recession, the stock market will lack strength support, and even if it is a so-called “funding market,” it will not be sustainable.
2. Does inflation have an upward trend?Inflation not only causes enterprises to rise due to rising prices and wages, but also lowers the purchasing power of most low-income and fixed-income people, which indirectly affects corporate profits. Although in the early stage of inflation, enterprises have the advantages of low-cost inventory of raw materials and finished products, as well as real estate, which can guarantee profitability, and even after all, but it is very short. Once inflation worsens, the stock market will inevitably fall into a bearish trend.( www.fmz.com) 3. Does the interest rate rise sharply?When international interest rates rise sharply, countries must be forced to adopt interest rate hikes in order to prevent a large outflow of their own funds. In the past few years, due to the US Federal Reserve’s increase of the re-discount rate of 0.5 percentage points, from the original 6.5% to 7%, the major banks in the United States immediately raised their interest rates to over 11%, so that European industrial countries are also Consider raising its re-discount rate. If European countries follow up, global interest rates are bound to climb, and it is predictable that the global economic development will be affected. In addition, if inflation continues to rise, the government will tighten financial measures and force interest rates to rise in order to stabilize the people’s livelihood and curb financial speculation. As interest rates rise, business operating costs rise, profitability is relatively weak, and the spot is of course unfavorable. This is why the US Federal Reserve announced an increase in the rate of re-discount, Wall Street immediately fell sharply. 4. Does international crude oil price rise sharply?So far, no more economical and efficient energy has been enough to replace the status of oil. Once oil prices rise sharply, the entire world economy is bound to be significantly affected. At present, the international oil price, as the oil-producing countries and the non-oil-producing countries organize their oil-producing countries to gradually become more consistent, oil prices are expected to remain stable, but if the international crude oil prices rise in disorder, the situation may change, the global stock market It is bound to have a major impact, and the two Middle East oil crises are sufficient. 5. Whether labor and environmental issues are getting worseThe two major problems of labor and environmental protection have indeed entangled economic development and reduced the willingness of enterprises to invest. 6. Whether the society continues to be stable and stableA prosperous market depends on stable ** and stable society. If the political situation is turbulent, economic development will be affected, and social order will be chaotic, it will reduce the willingness of enterprises to invest, and the market will be inevitable. The fifth judgment trend line breakthrough The breakthrough of the trend line has important analytical significance for the choice of buying and selling opportunities, and even the market makers of the market often take the market operation according to the change of the trend line; therefore, find out when the trend line is A breakthrough is an effective breakthrough or an ineffective breakthrough, which is crucial for investors. In fact, the situation in which the exchange rate tends to go downhill often occurs. The mistake of judgment means the mistake of market operation. The following provides some methods of judgment and market principles, but the specific situation still needs to be combined. A detailed analysis of the market situation at the time. The breakthrough in closing price is a real breakthrough Technical analysts have found through research that the closing price breaks through the trend line and is an effective breakthrough and thus a signal to enter the market. Take the downward trend line, that is, the back pressure line. For example, if the market price has broken through the back pressure line, but the closing price is still lower than the back pressure line, this proves that the market did want to try the high, but the buying is not continued, and the market is flooding. So that the exchange rate finally fell back at the close of the market. Such a breakthrough, experts believe that it is not an effective breakthrough, that is to say, the counter-pressure line is still effective, and the market’s weak trend is still a final change. In the same way, the breakthrough of the rising trend line should be based on whether the closing price falls below the trend line. This is often the case in chart records: after the trend line breaks, the exchange rate returns to its original position. This situation is not effective. The opposite is often the market’s trap. Judging the principle of breakthrough In order to avoid mistakes in entering the market, technical analysis experts have summarized several principles for judging true and false breakthroughs: 1. After discovering the breakthrough, observe more than one day.If the exchange rate continues to develop in the direction of the breakthrough for two consecutive days after the breakthrough, such a breakthrough is an effective breakthrough, and it is a safe time to enter the market. Of course, only two days later, the exchange rate has changed a lot: the exchange rate of the purchase is high; the exchange rate of the exchange is low, but even then, because the direction is clear, the trend has been fixed, investors will still have a lot to do, It is much better to rush into the market. 2. Pay attention to the high and low prices two days after the breakthroughIf the closing price of a certain day breaks through the downward trend line (resistance line), the next day, if the trading price can cross his highest price, it means that there is a large number of buying follow-up after breaking the resistance line. On the contrary, when the exchange rate moves downwards in the upward trend line, if the next day’s trading is carried out below its lowest price, then after breaking the support line, the selling pressure is very high and it is worth following the sale. article originally from fmz.com https://blog.mathquant.com/2018/12/10/how-to-grasp-the-trend-in-investment-operation-trading.html
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article originally from fmz.com https://blog.mathquant.com/2018/12/12/explore-the-minefields-of-the-optimization-of-the-trading-system.htmlFirst, optimization research restrictionsAt present, some data providers still have not been able to provide a way to optimize transactional measures with multiple varieties. In fact, we all know that the optimal combination of parameters for each variety is not necessarily the same as the best combination of parameters in the trading strategy. And even data providers offer optimization and testing methods for a wide variety of parameter combinations. However, since the trader may also adopt some system combinations with negative correlation or low correlation, the optimal combination of parameters thus found is not necessarily the global optimal parameter combination. Second, to avoid defectsWe have already told you in the previous content that the most prone to system development is the curve fitting. In general, curve fitting is divided into two types, namely: parameter curve fitting and data curve fitting. Simply put, the data curve fitting is that when the system developer studies the filtering loss transaction most, it will consciously remove some data. This method is called data curve fitting. In order to avoid such problems in the development of programmatic trading systems, traders can adhere to objective historical data standards while testing the system. This is the same as the problem we mentioned earlier. The market type in historical data must include the following: bear market, bull market, trend market and mean return market. Of course, if we do not include these market patterns in the historical data, we must add more historical data. So what if we can’t find more historical data for a certain trading target? This is where we can find some other varieties for reference. However, we must note that the varieties we use for reference not only must contain data of each type, but also have a strong correlation with the original variety. Curve fitting is where the system developer adjusts the parameter values to match the data of the test. Let’s use a simple file to drive an example of an average crossover system. There is only one other parameters in this system, and we are very confident about the future performance and historical performance of this system. However, if the developer is not satisfied with this relatively low win rate, then the developer may try to combine a series of parameter combinations until a relatively high combination of parameters is found without affecting other aspects. Then there may be two things happening at this time. The first is the reduction of the signal in the system; the second is the increase in the proportion of the profit signal in the residual signal. Then the developer may be able to make the system more successful by adding another parameter. The end result is that the extra parameters added by the developer undermine the originally robust and successful programmatic trading system. Although the system is perfect for past data performance, the future data is really embarrassing. Therefore, traders must remember that if there are more parameters in the system, the possibility of parameter curve fitting will be greater. The more the parameter combination matches the historical data, the worse their adaptability to future random data will be. article originally from fmz.com https://blog.mathquant.com/2018/12/12/explore-the-minefields-of-the-optimization-of-the-trading-system.html
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