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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 26, 2017, 06:19:54 AM
Whats with GDAX/Coinbase... $100+ price difference between the major exchanges.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 09:37:41 AM
I am pretty sure most people use MCAD as one indicator to either buy or sell. It has been pretty obvious on both the 4h and 6h charts that we were expecting a correction soon. Unless you are planning to buy and hold for more than a month the 1d and 3d indicator is at a buy signal right now. Simply listening to the forum for short term predictions is gonna lose you money.  
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 12:23:30 AM
This rise with this volume is a joke.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 04, 2014, 10:54:00 AM
I don't there will be a trend reversal until the number of shorts on Bitfinex outnumbers the number of longs by 2:1. Right now plenty of people are still optimistic about the price immediately bouncing up after months of a downtrend. When everyone believes that bitcoin is going to continue going down and shorts start to be squeezed that's when a trend reversal will occur. Right now these bounces seem to be bots following MCAD indicators every time it crosses the 6h mark.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 03, 2014, 04:24:22 PM
can we explain a single actor buying 5k coins?

As mentioned, margin call, or, maybe even more likely, plain old fashioned belief in future price increase. I'm firmly in the bear segment for now, but even I can see how it might make sense to buy in now with a large sum (at the risk of short-term losing some of your depot's value) under the assumption that the long term growth potential that outweighs that risk is still there. It's all about different time frames in which market participants calculate (and, no, I don't necessarily say those who think "long term" are making the smarter choice).

On bitfinex there really hasn't been a large amount of short sellers compared to the number of longs that are being made. Usually you would expect a trend reversal when shorts out number the amount of longs, causing a short squeeze, which would somewhat indicate a trend reversal. There are far to many people right now betting that the price will bounce up immediately paying .2% interest a day on bitfinex.  
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 03, 2014, 02:22:50 AM
Bitfinex interest rate being so high still is so concerning....
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2014, 12:11:25 PM
What is going on with Bitstamp's bid/ask sums. Bid sum has not increased for weeks and is continually decreasing....
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2014, 11:41:49 PM
I am scared shitless right, but I just bought some more. I hope I don't shit myself somehow magically....
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2014, 10:53:11 AM
WTF is going on in China?
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 09:51:56 AM
i have a macd/ema strategy with ltc daytrading where i buy on a certain ema on downspikes which should be safe as a support until the corresponding macd goes down. once that macd goes down then the support is no longer valid and i move to the next longer chart to use its ema as support. this works most of the time. however today it just kept going down, and down, and down, without the corresponding macds going down first.

That probably would work on a rational market, but when buying and selling is occurring irrational because of much BS you will lose trying to use technicals.   
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Challenge: if you really are a guru, post trades in real time on: March 19, 2014, 09:49:10 AM
enough playing with LTC, back to BTC. I shorted 4.3 BTC on BItfinex @ $614. Im looking to take profit at 560-580 within 40 hours.

I think you just shorted the coins I just bought =P
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 08:20:58 AM
Much pump and dump LTC. Glad I shorted the hell out of it when it was $20. Back to BTC watching now.

how did you short it?  bitfinex?

300 LTC at $20 on Bitfinex. Just closed my short at $18.4. Bitfinex has such bad LTC liquidity. There is so much slippage when you try to place even a small position.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 07:54:33 AM
Much pump and dump LTC. Glad I shorted the hell out of it when it was $20. Back to BTC watching now.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 05:24:45 AM
I do not trust rises in LTC when BTC does not rise along side with it. I am pretty sure people are bored with BTC right now and see LTC as a quick way to make a quick buck so they are pumping the hell out of LTC.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Which is a better long term investment? Bitcoin or Litecoin? on: March 18, 2014, 05:33:54 PM
buy litecoin now or cry later.

Litecoin continues to go up but the volume is dropping away rapidly.

Now, and I mean RIGHT NOW, is a time to sell LTC, not to buy. Longer term, I have no idea, but looking at the short term charts right now, LTC is a definite sell.

yup sell right before it hit the worlds biggest exchange , you know how to make money bro

buy litecoin now or cry later.
Think I will just abide.. never gonna buy Litecoin no joke

then you'll buy toliet paper to wipe the tears when you wake up 1 day and see litecoin over $100 and your shitty scamcoin is dead.

Buy the rumor sell on the the news.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2014, 08:07:00 AM
With this low of volume and on BFX there is a record amount of USD being borrowed for long positions there is going to be a short squeeze down, when people start closing their long positions when the market moves south drastically with a small dump this is going to be painful.  

Edit: Last time I saw Bitfinex sentiment be 2:1 bearish was December 22, that was the beginning of the rally up to 900ish. Now that is 1:2 bullish be careful, the market can be easily manipulated right now.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 16, 2014, 09:02:28 AM
Trying to predict anything using charts/technical analysis with this low of volume is ridiculous. Small market buys/selloff does not indicate where the future market is heading when the volume is less than 3000 coins.  
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: March 12, 2014, 06:44:42 AM
Bitcoins in the past 3 months has been one of the worst ways to increase your fiat. In the past week I have seen stocks such as Plug, FNMA, and FCEL increase 2-3x their value in a week and drop that much in a day. These aren't penny stocks either. Mat the fact that you emphasize constantly that you have put your hard earned money into the bitcoin market and is deathly afraid of losing any or all of it is a joke. You are a wanna be day trader that for some reason chose bitcoins as your method of accumulating more fiat. There are better investments out there that can double or triple you money in a day and only happens from 9:30 to 4:00.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2014, 09:28:19 PM
So who was saying that the 11k BFX was real and he was just offering it so someone could buy with no slippage?
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2014, 12:32:02 PM
10k bfx wall is back

They obviously do not want to sell and I am betting they are using a pretty high amount of margin to execute it. The fact that weak hands are actually selling because of it is sad. 
I would disagree that they don't want to sell. They have put the wall up several times over a few days; at this point anyone that wants to buy a lot of bitcoin would have seen that wall pop up and can expect it to pop up again a few times a day, and they will be able to buy a lot instantly without any slippage. This guy is just advertising his wall, waiting for someone to buy. Putting that wall up so often would be idiotic if they don't want to sell because if the price is undervalued, someone is going to buy a few thousand instantly and that wall guy will lose a ton of money.

I just do not believe any major walls that are placed on BFX compare to BSP. With margin and being able to short on BFX most of the time any walls that are placed on BFX will be pulled once it simply gets near the price. I do not even think BFX has that many coins sitting on their BSP account to sell that many coins. If he was willing to sell that many coins, it would completely wipe out BFX's order book like every time there has been a spike. There is a reason why that wall has been holding for so long on BFX compared to if it was placed on BSP. There really aren't any major players on BFX like BSP wanting to even remotely buy that many coins.   
BFX has grown significantly and I think its comparable in size to btc-e, not counting litecoin or other alts. BFX doesn't need coins on their BSP account; they have more than enough on their own books. You really think someone is shorting 10k btc on max leverage on bfx when someone could easily buy a large chunk if not all at once, especially now since they have had a lot of time to get their money ready and think about that decision? They could lose a few million very fast if someone does decide to buy into that wall, given that they are shorting. We can speculate about whether or not there are major players on bfx and its hard to tell, but I think there are now just because it is the best way to short bitcoin, which has attracted many traders. No one would risk so much money by shorting 10k btc on the assumption that no one can or will buy into their wall. The reward of possibly buying at most few hundred slightly cheap coins is nothing compared to that risk. And the fact that this person is advertising the wall, putting it for a few hours every day, suggests that they are trying to sell the coins.

BFX's order book I believe is a combination of their own order book and BSP's order book. When there is a disconnect between their order book you will notice a really large spread between the two. When there is minor spread it usually is because of low volume and everything is working properly. If you look back to when the 10k wall was placed on BSP how many people reacted and sold then. A lot of people know that BFX walls are unreliable and barely move the market. BFX order book is really thin. That have had plenty of problems before when major sell orders have been placed and they have ran out of coins on BSP causing their order book to go to $0. After knowing all of this why would some sell 11k coins on BFX legitimately when margin calls would occur like crazy if someone sold that many coins. I have never seen large sell or buy orders on BFX past 1k coins, so it is not that large of an exchange yet. If they wanted to sell they would do what was done on BSP and move the wall closer to where the market action is happening rather than at points no one is going to touch. Constantly moving it backwards is also another clear sign they do not want to sell.     
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