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Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well
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on: June 30, 2014, 07:02:01 AM
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more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.
At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.
I doubt most lenders lend out for months given the risk of goxings. Most are just lending out for a brief period. I usually lend 66% of my money and use the remaining 33% for trading. Is a good balance, because the lends gives me a steady income (about 1.8%/week), while with the trading money I can have a good income from the market movements (like now... +30$ in 30 minutes). Usually I lend money for 2 or 3 days, except when the offer goes over 0.4%, in this case I lend them for 30 days (but usually are closed earlier). Nick. |
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6
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Economy / Speculation / Bear Trap ?
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on: June 25, 2014, 12:00:53 PM
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The auction of 30,000 BTC and the breakage of the log term support line are the perfect storm for a Bear Trap.
Do you agree ?
Nick.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: USD Swap demand on Bitfinex has never been so high
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on: June 23, 2014, 09:39:36 AM
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So would you guys recommend lending money to Bitfinex to take advantage of the interest? Are they trustworthy? Do you have to provide documentation to verify your account?
It is not recommended unless you are already trading on bitfinex and sold near a top and are waiting for a few days for the market to go down. Lending out for the long term is too risky due to flash crashes and exchange goxings. I was lending all the money I have on BFX the day of the crash, I think it was Feb 10th, and I did not had any loss. The only thing that happened was: many of my lend lots where closed very rapidly (i think because of people were automatically forced to sell). The only real risk tat I see with BFX is the fact that the company is really small and not incorporated, so they can simply vanish with not so much consequences for them. Nick. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: USD Swap demand on Bitfinex has never been so high
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on: June 20, 2014, 10:02:30 AM
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It's bearish. The amount of money loaned out to take longs is now at an all time high meaning prices have been supported on fake money. Now the supply of real money to lend out has dried up which results in the supply/demand you mentioned. This is going to cause interest rates to rise. The higher interest rates will force people to dump as it is no longer profitable to hold with the way the trend currently is. This could end up turning into a cascade of stop losses and margin calls as 40,000BTC purchased with loaned money are dumped.
I use bitfinex mainly to lend money, in the last two weeks interest rates grew hi and I was able to gain up to 0.32% daily... this is good news for me  Nick. |
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Economy / Speculation / I'm not shorting anymore
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on: May 15, 2014, 09:49:28 AM
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I've found some interesting trends that could indicate a turn into the direction to which BTC is heading The steady decline is now being replaced by a slow increase. I'll keep an eye on this, when value touch the new trending lines. Nick.  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: A picture is worth a 1000 words
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on: April 10, 2014, 11:48:46 PM
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If I read the graph well, we are now in the Capitulation phase, with the october bear trap around 167$, we will probably go under 100$ during the despair phase.
Nick.
P.S. I'm short
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Economy / Speculation / Re: [Cosmopolis] Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest
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on: March 31, 2014, 10:33:57 PM
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Bitcoin will test $400 floor in the coming days.
We have a 48% (rounded off) chance of retesting $266 +/- $100 margin of error within the next 2 weeks
I hear the sound of popping bubbles... I'm short with PANIC buy at 343. I like PANIC  Nick. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt.Gox Bankruptcy - CNN States 1.75 Million BTC Lost
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on: February 28, 2014, 10:09:26 PM
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If only there were some mechanism or system out there to handle the micropayments for people doing the work.. hmmm.....if only....
Wow, great idea! Why don't we create a digital currency... based on cryptography... without anyone controlling it... we could call it: 'bytecoin'.  Nick. |
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