Bitcoin Forum
July 02, 2016, 02:12:11 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.12.1 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 ... 229 »
1081  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: are s1's even worth running? on: October 05, 2014, 05:15:15 AM
With temperatures dropping in my region, it's a cheaper form of heat, so yes, it still makes sense for me.
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 02:37:37 AM
Your B3 statement is most interesting to me. Yes more players decreases the odds of a systems collapse however a rather large, at this point, group of speculators does not constitute real global demand for Bitcoin. In other words...I feel Bitcoin is in a battle for its life as a generally accepted global currency.  

I agree.  Despite exponential growth over the past few years, Bitcoin is still at the complete mercy of substantially larger markets and market players.   Although, I would argue that it's hands-down remarkable the resiliency it's demonstrated while competing on a global playing field.  It didn't have the luxury of growing in some economic Petri dish until maturation.  It's amazing that something so small has persevered and made it this far when it's subject to the influence of virtually everyone in the industrialized world.
1083  Economy / Speculation / For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 01:07:51 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeostasis

When things start getting messy and emotions run high, I often find it's useful to remind myself of the basics.  Accordingly, this is a post aimed at those who, over the past few weeks, have become increasingly emotional and panicky about BTC price.

What should you do?  Should you sell?  Should you buy?  Should you HODL?  Should you diversify?  Ultimately, these are unknowns, and the more you focus on the unknown, the less you focus on what is knowable.

So, what is knowable?  Systems Theory is an *extremely* broad, overarching theory of systems in general.  Depending on what discipline Systems Theory is applied to, it will look slightly different and certain systemic aspects will be highlighted over others.  But, the core ideas behind Systems Theory are applicable to virtually everything.  Absolutely everything and anything is a system -- I'm a system, you're a system, and this community is a system.  Most relevant to this post is that the Bitcoin market is a small, economic system nested within much larger economic systems.

Why is this basic knowledge useful?  All systems have some basic properties that, at the very least, can help us to understand the context in which the Bitcoin market exists in relation to other economic markets.

Let's first address some characteristics of all systems:

1) Entropy -- All systems are prone to entropy or decay over time, and will continue to do so without outside influence.

2) Homeostasis -- Homeostasis is a state of balance within a system, and is often achieved when systemic input is delicately balanced by systemic output.   A system in a state of total or near-total homeostasis can be described as stable.  A system not in a state of homeostasis can be described as volatile.

3) Input -- energy flowing into a system from external systems.

4) Output -- energy flowing out of a system into other, external systems.

Example:
Imagine a human being.  From the moment you are born, you are subject to entropy.  You will decay and die without some additional source of energy in the form of received input from some external system (e.g. food, oxygen, etc).  But, simply receiving this input will not guarantee your continued existence.   This systemic input needs to be counterbalanced by systemic output (e.g. excretion, etc.).  The absence of one or the other will lead to a quick death, and extreme imbalances between systemic input and output will cause systemic volatility that can threaten systemic collapse.

Applying Systems Theory to Bitcoin:
This post isn't intended to give you a formula for determining the cause of every tiny movement, but rather to provide some general considerations so that you can place the current state of Bitcoin in a more reasonable context.  Accordingly, here are a few of those considerations, though this is by no means an exhaustive or even comprehensive list:

1) Bitcoin is still a tiny economic system nested among larger ones.  This implies that smaller amounts of systemic input/output will have a larger impact on Bitcoin than they would on some larger economic system.  This is obvious -- simply imagine how, for example, the influx of $1 billion in new money might affect the Bitcoin market vs. how it might affect Google stock.

2) Bitcoin has experienced several phases of enormous systemic input that was not counterbalanced by systemic output.  The rise to the $32 in June 2011 was the first example, the rise to $266 was a second example, and the rise to >$1000 was the third.   These are all examples of periods in which systemic input was grossly mismatched with systemic output.  The inevitable result of these scenarios is systemic imbalance or a lack of homeostasis, thereby increasing the chances of systemic collapse.

3) Bitcoin is not self-correcting.  It is inherently linked to external systems from and to which energy is transferred.  This dependence upon other systems is specifically what removes any guarantee whatsoever of recovery.  

For the dense, let me repeat and highlight that last sentence:  This dependence upon other systems is specifically what removes any guarantee whatsoever of recovery.

4) Volatility doesn't care which direction you're moving or whether you're making or losing money, it is simply a reflection of instability within a system.  Although I'm certainly generalizing a bit with this next example, it's equally 'bad' in terms of instability whether the price goes up $100 in a day or falls $100.  Accordingly, you shouldn't be looking to your trading success or lack thereof as an indicator of market health.

Again, this list is extremely short and by no means comprehensive, but I thought I'd get the ball rolling with some general advice (Note:  I am NOT a licensed professional).  I like people, which means that I generally like all of you, and I don't enjoy reading stories of people making investment decisions that end up ruining their lives.  So, here goes:

1)  To HODLers, there is absolutely 0% guarantee of a price recovery, and it is absolutely possible for this system to die.

2)  Systemic death can begin at any price.  Volatility and a lack of homeostasis lead to systemic death, not a low price.

3)  However, as Bitcoin grows, its resistance to systemic death increases.  Furthermore, as systemic output grows to match systemic input, the chances of re-establishing a homeostatic state increase.  Consequently, even this precipitous price drop from the ATH over the course of nearly a year is not conclusive evidence of a dying Bitcoin market, but possibly of one that is mending and healing itself.  This is directed towards the doomsday prophets on this forum.

4)  Avoid extreme positions.  Don't commit yourself to sinking with the ship, but also don't pretend icebergs can't or don't exist.

**Note: For the record, I released the majority of my holdings between $600-$850 but still have some stake in this market.
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 10:15:01 PM
I'll admit I had high hopes for btc, but the last bubble has no reason to repeat itself.
Very good point. The last bubble, from about $120 to $1100, was driven by the use of Bitcoin in China to get around China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China stopped that, the price started back down.

Probably not.  Did you read the Willy Report?

They are only rumors.

But chinese exchanges have the biggest volumes, even now

It's not a rumor that there were trading bots buying more than a half-million BTC continually over the course of a few months.  That's concrete.
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 09:58:56 PM
I'll admit I had high hopes for btc, but the last bubble has no reason to repeat itself.
Very good point. The last bubble, from about $120 to $1100, was driven by the use of Bitcoin in China to get around China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China stopped that, the price started back down.

Probably not.  Did you read the Willy Report?
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 09:47:39 PM
they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.



Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid

they are losing money if they are holding btc. 

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.


Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero


A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  Roll Eyes
1087  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: October 02, 2014, 03:04:04 PM
I should post a video of my latest super hot 18 year old gf inside my whip saying how much she loves my fat schlong.

You know how many teen p0rn stars I've dated?

More than most people have had regular gf's with.

You know in 1996 when I had 1 Million Plus people a day to my network, I believed the BS build it they will come and then sell ads.

So while CNN/AOL/TIME was conning the world that they were getting $40 M for banners I was one of the few people saying BULLSH*T

Turned out all their sales were paper trades between themselves and that's what crashed the original dot-com bubble.

Now in the later 1990's, you know the first real industry that built the damn net and got all the optic cable stuff installed to feed high speed internet?

P0RN

Had it not been for P0RN the net would still be 56K dial up

Same with Amazon, had it not been for erotica, there would be no kindle and no nook.

Sex drives humanity, it's why there's 7 Billion wastes of DNA energy populating this prison rock.

Now P0RN is free, it's all given away to get people to go to what, live cams and gambling.

So if bitcoin focuses on sex and gambling, it will become the net's underground currency and the underground economy is HUGE>

Drugs
Sex
Gambling

The big 3 vices.

Face it, overstock, expedia, paypal, none of it will move btc into a major alt currency.

SEX
DRUGS
GAMBLING

Will




Well now, this is about the most factual thing I've ever read.
1088  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: October 02, 2014, 04:29:02 AM
You guys can blast the OP all you want, but he does have some valid points.  In my opinion, the biggest weakness of bitcoin from the consumer standpoint is one simple thing: consumer protections.
1) Escrow  and 2) Circle are now insuring deposits (bank like) - they won't be the last.

(facepalm) Typical gloomy attitude when the exchange rate is depressed.

It's always the same, every single time.

I think this is the crux of the problem here. We all have our moments of doubt - especially when the exchange rate is shit. Over on the speculation section of the forum I think they refer to it as "shaking out the weak hands", or somesuch  Wink

Escrow does absolutely *nothing* to protect the consumer and is a false sense of security.

I never understood the emphasis on using escrow services in many cases.  For most transactions, using an escrow service actually adds risk rather than eliminating it -- instead of having to trust one person, now you need to trust at least two.  The only reason escrow is useful on these forums is because you can reasonably determine the authenticity of a reputable member acting as an escrow agent, and you can make reasonable assumptions about what the escrow agent would stand to gain/lose by running off with the money; you can't make the same assumptions about a newbie.  
As long as the escrow service's reputation is worth more then the transaction in question then it would not make sense for them to run away with your bitcoin. Since a person with zero feedback has reputation that is worth zero there is a very good chance they will scam while a person with reputation has a much less of a chance of scamming

Sure, and I basically conceded that exact point in my post.  However, I'd like to point out that any well-known, reputable escrow agent didn't start out that way.  

You guys can blast the OP all you want, but he does have some valid points.  In my opinion, the biggest weakness of bitcoin from the consumer standpoint is one simple thing: consumer protections.
1) Escrow  and 2) Circle are now insuring deposits (bank like) - they won't be the last.

(facepalm) Typical gloomy attitude when the exchange rate is depressed.

It's always the same, every single time.

I think this is the crux of the problem here. We all have our moments of doubt - especially when the exchange rate is shit. Over on the speculation section of the forum I think they refer to it as "shaking out the weak hands", or somesuch  Wink

Escrow does absolutely *nothing* to protect the consumer and is a false sense of security.

I never understood the emphasis on using escrow services in many cases.  For most transactions, using an escrow service actually adds risk rather than eliminating it -- instead of having to trust one person, now you need to trust at least two.  The only reason escrow is useful on these forums is because you can reasonably determine the authenticity of a reputable member acting as an escrow agent, and you can make reasonable assumptions about what the escrow agent would stand to gain/lose by running off with the money; you can't make the same assumptions about a newbie.  
I don't understand. Escrow is an essential part of commerce and has been used for centuries.

Payment processors (e.g. PayPal) and banks, while primarily intended to suit other purposes, also fulfill the characteristics of an escrow agent.  Cypriots recently found out first hand that even large, reputable escrow agents can't guarantee safety (it's irrelevant whether the bank or the government is responsible).  Even waiters/waitresses fulfill the characteristics of escrow agents, and there have certainly been resulting instances of fraud and theft despite the fact that >99% of the time nobody ever thinks twice about letting the waitress run off with a credit card for a few minutes.  But really, my post was focused primarily on the use of escrow in the crypto-market, though I should have made that a bit clearer.
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin made rich just a few but it ruined many on: October 01, 2014, 09:11:38 PM
You don't lose until you sell.

Those who bought at $32 were saying the same thing until we crossed it, those who bought at $266 said the same thing until we crossed it, those who bought at $1200 said the same thing until....

"You don't lose until you sell" is wrong.  It's called unrealized loss.  And actually, this is bad for two reasons:  1) You can't realize a profit, and so your present purchasing power is lower, and 2) You can't even write off the loss on your taxes because it hasn't been realized yet.

Actually this idea of "you don't lose until you sell" was completely true since the birth of bitcoin until all the way to Nov 2013 which was the ATH. Will it still hold true now? Who knows. But if you believe there will be a new ATH in the future, then that statement is still true; it's better to be patient and gain money than to be scared and lose money.


The only problem is, the rise of bitcoin is never guaranteed

No, it still doesn't make it true even if BTC goes up in price.  If BTC goes up and he sells, he realizes profits.   Losing additional profits isn't a loss at all (unless you're a glass half-empty kind of person).

I'm guessing that you meant something more along the lines of "you don't profit until you sell" when the price of BTC goes up.  But, in this case too, you profit in terms of unrealized gains.
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin made rich just a few but it ruined many on: October 01, 2014, 08:11:10 PM
You don't lose until you sell.

Those who bought at $32 were saying the same thing until we crossed it, those who bought at $266 said the same thing until we crossed it, those who bought at $1200 said the same thing until....

"You don't lose until you sell" is wrong.  It's called unrealized loss.  And actually, this is bad for two reasons:  1) You can't realize a profit, and so your present purchasing power is lower, and 2) You can't even write off the loss on your taxes because it hasn't been realized yet.
1091  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: October 01, 2014, 07:56:43 PM
You guys can blast the OP all you want, but he does have some valid points.  In my opinion, the biggest weakness of bitcoin from the consumer standpoint is one simple thing: consumer protections.
1) Escrow  and 2) Circle are now insuring deposits (bank like) - they won't be the last.

(facepalm) Typical gloomy attitude when the exchange rate is depressed.

It's always the same, every single time.

I think this is the crux of the problem here. We all have our moments of doubt - especially when the exchange rate is shit. Over on the speculation section of the forum I think they refer to it as "shaking out the weak hands", or somesuch  Wink

Escrow does absolutely *nothing* to protect the consumer and is a false sense of security.

I never understood the emphasis on using escrow services in many cases.  For most transactions, using an escrow service actually adds risk rather than eliminating it -- instead of having to trust one person, now you need to trust at least two.  The only reason escrow is useful on these forums is because you can reasonably determine the authenticity of a reputable member acting as an escrow agent, and you can make reasonable assumptions about what the escrow agent would stand to gain/lose by running off with the money; you can't make the same assumptions about a newbie. 
1092  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: October 01, 2014, 04:00:51 PM
The first proof...
It is a highly complex machine. No machine ever existed without a Machine Maker.
A proton is a highly complex machine, it contains quarks and lots of stuff. No machine ever existed without a Machine Maker. Thus god exists.
 Roll Eyes

The second proof for the existence of God is, there is no pure random.
Quantum mechanics
 Roll Eyes

The third proof...
Because of the existence in the minds, the evidence for God in the minds of the people is as valid as any other proof.
I'm glad you are one of the few people who believe in the Flying Spaghetti Monster Smiley
God's concept exists. That doesn't make it a reality.


1) The "no machine without a maker" argument is plausible, but in my opinion it's a fairly weak argument on its own.  It certainly isn't proof.

2) Actually, his point here is fairly accurate.  Chance is essentially another word for unknown causation.  Randomness is practically meaningful to describe certain events, but hardly accurate.  For example, if I flip a coin, you might say there is a 50% chance the coin will land on tails.  In reality, there is 100% certainty that the coin will land on tails given certain conditions (e.g. Height of the flip, force used, wind currents, angle of the flip, slope of the landing surface, etc.  But, in a coin flip, there's no time to take into account all these factors to arrive at a conclusion.  So, practically speaking, we describe the result in terms of probabilities.

3) The Flying Spaghetti Monster argument is a priori invalid, and is a terrible argument against the existence of God.  This is obvious as the FSM is described as only having the characteristics of a polytheistic god and not a monotheistic one.  As a result, this argument is dead on arrival.  Atheists really do themselves a horrible disservice by wielding this argument because it essentially demonstrates that they did not think for themselves about this issue.  The FSM is a very bad, bandwagon argument against the existence of God.
1093  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] (Staff Only) Earn Bitcoins Simply By Posting on: September 30, 2014, 08:20:36 PM
I may have missed this, but are legendary members on par with hero members or staff?  Can I still participate as a legendary member, or does "staff only" really mean "staff only?"

Nope it should just be the staff level to my knowledge not even the Legends in this one
Plus Title of thread [PrimeDice] (Staff Only) Earn Bitcoins Simply By Posting )

I figured it was a good question because he had previously lumped legendary and hero rates together.  Now, the OP simply doesn't mention legendary members at all.  It isn't unreasonable to assume either inclusion or exclusion without more clarity.
1094  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] (Staff Only) Earn Bitcoins Simply By Posting on: September 30, 2014, 05:33:36 PM
I may have missed this, but are legendary members on par with hero members or staff?  Can I still participate as a legendary member, or does "staff only" really mean "staff only?"
1095  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russia is getting ready to bomb the USA :( on: September 30, 2014, 05:25:27 PM

Getting the plutonium necessary to construct a nuke is *much* easier to get than uranium.  Building the nuke, however, is insanely complicated.

Access to uranium = very hard; construction = very easy
Access to plutonium = fairly easy; construction = insanely hard

Hmm, I would say that access to plutonium is also insanely hard, as it implies that you already have a local nuclear reactor and reprocessing facilities.

The hard part about getting uranium is probably just the logistics of disguising your mining operation as a desalination plant, or some other type of metal mine. And then exporting the semi-manufactured product to a reputable-sounding customer.

It'd be much cheaper just to buy the plutonium from someone else, which is why it's much easier to obtain.  A few million USD ought to cover it.  Good luck building the bomb, though.  The equipment needed to do so is ludicrous (because, in order for the chain reaction to occur, you essentially need a critical mass of plutonium to implode in on itself simultaneously with a margin of error as small as several billionths/trillionths of a second.  Achieving the precision necessary for the bomb to work at all is insanely difficult.

Uranium enrichment is an unbelievably expensive, energy-intensive process that is simply above and beyond the capacities of most any organization or government.  Even with $billions at your disposal, good luck getting some.  However, once you have some, you can probably assemble a nuke in your garage in less than a day with materials you can purchase at your local hardware store.
1096  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: September 30, 2014, 05:05:15 PM
At this stage in BTC there is a serious problem with consumer adoption of BTC.

If you look at the growth charts, the past was fueled by consumer adoption for silk road IMO.

If you wanted to buy on SR you had to convert fiat into btc.

Then silk road got busted, the news about it fueled some spec money and also gave enough press to make some merchants accept it.

Now here we are almost a year later on what should be a viral growth opportunity and BTC value is going the wrong way since high at end of 2013.

Look at btc with a blank mind, you have zero knowledge of the coin, you go to Overstock, you buy something, you see visa/mc/ax and paypal then you see bitcoin

Remember you have a blank mind, you maybe heard of it in the news and silk road or investors loosing their btc

Now name one reason for any 'average consumer' that gets a check weekly or twice a month, to say to themselves, hmmm, bitcoin, what is that, why do I need bitcoin to pay Overstock for my purchase?

Remember this is average joe blow consumer who is broke, he/shee lives off CREDIT CARDS, they have no real savings nor stocks, they get a minor wage from a faceless corp and every penny is accounted for by the gov they live in jurisdiction of.

That's the average nobody on the net, average broke a$$ nobody with a nothing job and no real money.

Now before SR got busted, what fueled the 'consumer' growth was here is where you can buy your drugs ON LINE, oh you need btc.

So that bought into btc a lot of people with money to acquire btc for one reason, joe consumer on SR had to acquire btc to play the game on SR.

Feds bust SR and news goes out and you have some spec money thrown into the mix, then you have some big companies say let's take this and turn it into fiat, more spec money comes in, but what item is now you must have btc to buy it? Nothing

 Just follow the stock reports from Overstock, they mention btc, and they mention how bad it is, less than 1% of sales, that is NOTHING, not even a reason for a retailer to retool and take it.

So step away from 'your knowledge' about btc, put yourself into the mind of joe blow nobody broke a$$ consumer, give that person one easily understood reason why they need to jump through all the hoops of BUYING btc.

No compelling reason for a consumer to buy btc to then buy stuff, no reason for btc price to keep rising, that's why December 2013 it was 1100 btc and now it's in the 300's.

The appeal of 'anonymous' transactions do not apply to joe blow average consumer, the reason, they have no secrets, they go to a job the gov knows they have, they get a wage deposited into their petty bank account the gov knows they have, that is their life, they are typical broke wage earners. Most of them can't afford a drug habit, the broke people with drug habits end up being forced to become criminals to afford their drug habits, the elite professionals who have drug habits aren't an elite professional for long, they burn out fast.

Silk Road IMO fueled btc acceptance by a very small segment of society and today when a big merchant puts up a shingle like Overstock and says we take btc, so what, less than 1% of their sales are btc, it's in their stock reports they must file.

All the bs btc propaganda that every bitbot spews about why you must have btc is bs to THE AVERAGE CONSUMER.

Oh, fiat is worthless, so is btc, everything is, unless enough people agree fiat, gold, silver or btc have a value and trade with it, otherwise everything has no value.

Oh, your gov is about to crash and burn, yeah we hear that all the time

Oh, you gov knows everything you do, don't you want anonymous money, why the person is a broke wage earner and the gov knows every penny they have

Oh, your trans is secure, really assuming they have a brain and don't have a million viruses on their computer or phone

Oh, it's a great investment, really 1100 bucks 9 months and now it's in the 300's what drug are YOU ON

How many big retailers have to put up bitcoin signs here and sell almost nothing via btc before you all understand, if bitcoin wallets are not filled with btc on mega-millions of users laptops, having merchants take bitcoin means nothing, you need a legion of consumers with bitcoin money ready to buy and these consumers are usually broke and need credit cards to buy stuff.

SR didn't offer drugs for credit card transactions they offered btc trades, so that fueled consumers buying btc

I would call the Overstock adoption of bitcoin now a proven FAILURE, they got in near the high of 1100 bucks and now its in the 300's.

So merchant adoption has moved the value of btc backwards if anything.

You need consumers to acquire btc and then you need consumers buying stuff with it for btc to become a 'currency'.

Right now btc is only a spec investment IMO, and that investment has lost 70% of its value since it peaked end of 2013.

Go ahead cry well the 'history of btc is long term growth', can you say BULL SH*T

There is no long term history of bitcoin, the history of bitcoin was it was fueled by silk road, when silk road crashed and burned, the media ran with bitcoin stories for a while and it fuled some minor spec money

Now that spec money lost 70% of what they put into bitcoin end of 2013

There is simply no great need for any consumer to acquire btc and then to use it

Some people buy today and think btc is an investment, that means they don't spend it, that means it's not a currency

Now to me, the 'idea' of btc has appeal, but I'm not a broke a$$ wage earner, I'm more of what they call the .1% the cream of the 1%.

So I own btc, I have companies I control that take it, it does NOTHING in the real world, people press pay with credit card or paypal, they have no bitcoin to use and if they did they look at it as a commodity like gold you save it, that means btc is not a currency.

Now before you all cast some stones, who am I?

Here's my phone log from this morning

Curator of Smithsonian called
Curator of British Museum called
Spoke to the CEO of one of the top 5 publishing houses in the world
Spoke to senior partner at a major lawfirm
Spoke to editor of a major news org

So I guess my opinion and my words don't mean that much.

Now sell the average consumer one real reason they need to go out and try to acquire bitcoin and then consume goods with it.

If you can't do that, YOU HAVE NO CURRENCY as to btc.





I think there are a lot of valid concerns here, but I'd like to point out a few things:

1) Overstock has seen not-insignificant sales numbers in BTC tallying in the millions of dollars.  For merchants, the price at when they "got in" to BTC or began accepting it is irrelevant since payment processors convert BTC to fiat in real-time.  To this extent, BTC has been successful.  A not-insignificant number of people *are* using BTC to purchase goods and services from large retailers, and Overstock is evidence of this.

2) Consumers have an incentive to use BTC if merchants provide such incentives.  Payment processors like BitPay, who only take a 1% processing fee, enable merchants to reduce their prices for consumers, therefore leading to more sales.  Given that the profit margin of the average company is generally between 5-10%, an extra 1-2% is an *enormous* difference.   As infrastructure continues to develop and streamline transactions, these incentives should become more apparent.

3) Your phone log has nothing to do with any of this.

However, I do agree the average person couldn't care less about anonymity, and for most people a 1-2% difference isn't enough of an incentive to prompt them into researching and acquiring BTC.  Intellectual and logistical barriers to entry are very real.  Although, on the other hand, there is certainly something to be said about the fact that large companies continue to incorporate BTC into their business models, and investors continue to funnel countless millions into infrastructure development.
1097  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ready to admit bitcoin is a failure? on: September 30, 2014, 04:40:05 PM
I'll admit it's a failure wqhen it actually fails. At the moment it seems to be working perfectly fine for me.

Is it working perfectly fine as a store of value for you? how about anyone else who bought or was paid for labor in the last 10 months with bitcoin?

It's stored it's value perfectly. I bought several 1 bitcoin and I still have 1 bitcoin. Whatever you paid for it is your problem and the fiat worth of it has nothing to do with bitcoin itself. I suggest you invest in fiat money or something if you're worried about this stuff. Don't buy any stocks and shares either.

What the hell?  The fact that 1 BTC = 1 BTC now and forever says nothing about value.   All that 1 BTC = 1 BTC means is that bitcoins are fungible.  USD is also fungible since $1 USD = $1 USD.

So far, Bitcoin sucks as a store of value in the sense that it's highly unpredictable.  A year from now, if I asked you to predict the purchasing power of both BTC and USD, you will find it easy to make a reasonable prediction about USD but not BTC.  Just look at the threads on this forum predicting that the value of a bitcoin will range from $0 to >$10,000 in a year's time.  If there's that much difference of opinion, then right now it's fair to conclude that, at least right now, BTC is anything but a safe haven for your purchasing power.
1098  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ready to admit bitcoin is a failure? on: September 30, 2014, 02:15:56 PM
I can see mass bankruptsy of small miners in the chart below.
In the previous years the difficulty was clearly following the price of Bitcoin, now they have detached. The difficulty keeps growing as a result of massive investments by large mining farms, but the price keeps going down or sideways at best forcing small miners to switch off their equipment. You don't need to be a genius to understand what that implies. The pattern is not the same as in previous years, no matter what they tell you.
There is no causal relationship between hashing and price. Any correlational relationship is purely coincidental. The price people are trading on is based on risky exchanges that people don't trust anymore after Mt Gox. You can claim anything you want, but your dataset is too small. Using the term "bankruptcy" is purely inflammatory.

When you base your predictions for future price patterns ("Bitcoin went from $32 to $2 and then to $1000 so it will recover again and go to $5000"), somehow the dataset is not too small, but in this chart the dataset is not enough, although it covers all of Bitcoin's history. Makes perfect sense Smiley

This isn't so much a response to you, cbeast, but rather at everyone in general because I'm getting tired of seeing the same (wrong) assertion put forth over and over.

There absolutely is, and always has been, a causal relationship between difficulty (not exactly hashing, but close enough) and price.  It's a bidirectional relationship.   Difficulty affects price and vice versa.  It is not now, nor will it ever be, a one-way function.
1099  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ready to admit bitcoin is a failure? on: September 28, 2014, 08:24:38 PM
100% wrong.  There is nothing about a deflationary currency that guarantees anything about the price.

Just to clear this up, deflationary currency is worth more vs goods over time, that's the definition. 2014 has been an inflationary year for bitcoin. Increasing money supply does not in and of itself guarantee inflation, and neither does having a fixed supply guarantee deflation.

Not quite, but very close.

There's a difference between 'deflation' and a 'deflationary currency,' and unfortunately even Wikipedia doesn't do much to clarify the difference.

The definition of 'deflation' is a relative decrease in the price of goods and services in the marketplace.  On the other hand, a 'deflationary currency' is a direct reference to certain properties of the currency in question, and not about price (otherwise, the term 'deflationary currency' would lose all of its practical meaning).  If the term 'deflationary currency' only references the relative price of a given currency to goods and services available in the marketplace, then we would call BTC deflationary any time a buy order is executed, and inflationary any time a sell order is executed.  We would therefore need to apply the same logic to fiat currencies (e.g. by labeling the US dollar as deflationary since its relative value has increased in recent months).

1100  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ready to admit bitcoin is a failure? on: September 27, 2014, 10:57:02 PM
Bitcoin is inherently deflationary on the final equation, the price can only go up

and most us dont actually just think of price when Bitcoin

only when you are buying other interesting alternatives, like Monero.

100% wrong.  There is nothing about a deflationary currency that guarantees anything about the price.
Pages: « 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 ... 229 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!