Bitcoin Forum
September 27, 2016, 03:37:34 AM *
News: Due to DDoS attacks, there may be periodic downtime.
 
  Home Help Search Donate Login Register  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 ... 230 »
1081  Other / Off-topic / Re: Lucid Dreaming on: October 07, 2014, 06:08:22 AM
If someone who has the ability to lucid dream at will, or at least frequently, reads this post, I would appreciate some feedback from your experience:

I've had 3 lucid dreams, two of which I won't discuss.  The 3rd time was by far the most interesting because I was cognizant enough to try a few *tests."

I'm from the Midwest but I attended the first 2 1/2 years of undergrad study in California.  After moving back to the Midwest, I had a dream wherein I was in a familiar place on the beaches along the Pacific Coast with mountain ranges in the backdrop.  However, something about the mountains was noticeably "off" from my normal recollection of that place as I had experienced it in real life, and so that's what triggered my awareness that I was dreaming.

I remember that at the instant I recognized I was dreaming, everything felt *extremely* real and life-like.  I *was* there, and nobody can convince me otherwise.  In the dream, my consciousness was absolutely in a real physical space.  There was, however, a really eerie quality to the realness which was accompanied by a subtle-but-noticeable low-frequency buzzing sound along with an equally subtle-but-noticeable sensation of pressure in my head, almost like a very very weak sinus headache.

Realizing that I was dreaming but hadn't woken up yet, I knew I was lucid, and so I decided to try a few different things to see what would happen.

I was shocked to find how real things actually were.  A literal 10-15 seconds passed with me standing on the beach, looking around me, trying to think of some clever ways to manipulate my situation.

The interesting thing is that I couldn't.  Well, at least not entirely.  The first thing I did was look at the clouds in the sky and try to control them by shifting them around.  I really couldn't do much with the whole cloud, but I found that very small parts of the cloud along the edges were all that I could manipulate.  The best I could manage was to make very small swirls and nudge the edges a bit, as if I was dipping an invisible finger into the cloud and playing with it.

Next, I shifted my attention to the ground, and I tried to move the sand around and draw things in the sand with my mind.  I couldn't, or well, at least not entirely.  Similar to the cloud, I was only able to make small changes, and at best I could only move a few dozen or a few hundred grains of sand around at a time.  Nothing major at all.

Then, I thought about flying.  From here on out, the dream still blows my mind to this day.

This particular section of beach was aligned next to a series of bluffs that run alongside the edge of the ocean.  The bluffs themselves are about 50 feet-or-so in height.  For some reason, I couldn't just take off from where I was and fly.  So, I thought about running to the edge of the bluff, jumping off, and, knowing and trusting in the fact that I was dreaming, I would fly.

So, I started sprinting to the edge of the bluff.  As soon as I got to the edge, I got *very* scared.  Everything was real -- too real -- and I simply knew that I couldn't jump off the bluff.  I knew that if I did, I would die.  To this day, I consider it *very* plausible that if I had decided to jump off the bluff in my dream, I would have fallen and killed myself in real life.  

But things get weirder.  I got a really, really crazy idea.  I decided to try to call my real-life best friend from my dream cell phone.

I pulled my cell out of my pocket, opened it up (it was a flip-phone at the time), and looked at it.  However, none of the numbers on the phone made sense.  Actually, all the numbers on the phone had changed to weird, alien- or Egyptian-like hieroglyphic symbols.  Additionally, the service provider shown at the top of my screen, "Verizon Wireless,"  was changed to "NEW CAPITAL."  

When I read the words "NEW CAPITAL" that was the very first thing that started to make me lose control of the lucid dream.  I then looked out into the ocean, and instead of only seeing water and the series of Channel Islands in the distance off the coast, I also saw three enormous concrete columns, almost like broken columns of the Greek Acropolis, standing in the middle of the ocean about 500 feet out from shore and standing maybe about 200 feet tall.  The sheer weirdness of this sight coupled was enough to fully make me lose control of the lucid dream, and I woke up a few seconds later feeling very, very confused.

Next time try to look at your hands to get more lucid, that is what I have heard. The dream sounds awesome, but I think it is weird how all dreams end and you have to feel like "I just read a person's dream". We need to find a way to bring that in to Ayahuasca ceremonies so that there is a real finale to every experience.

That was a pretty cool read though. Keep posting if you have more.

Thanks!  If the opportunity arises I'll test the hand thing.  I associate hands with words like 'controlling' among other things, so maybe that has something to do with it.

To me, the most interesting aspect of my dream was the contrast between my level of lucidity and my level of control.  In another lucid dream that I had as a child (maybe age 9-12ish?) I was able to fly immediately almost instantaneously the moment that I wanted to.  Although it's difficult to compare the two dreams due to my age difference, my recollection of this other lucid dream is still fairly good, especially since the dream itself was only 15-20 seconds or so before I lost control of it.  I do recall being less lucid in terms of my awareness, though again I imagine some of that has to do with age and the difference in my approach at the time to evaluating the dream.

Also, I've heard elsewhere that people have similar issue with numbers in dreams.  In particular, one of my friends states he's had several if not many dreams involving numbers, but the 'numbers' never made any sense and could never appear as a pure abstract number.  They were always either totally unintelligible, or they turned into symbols.
1082  Other / Off-topic / Re: Lucid Dreaming on: October 07, 2014, 05:18:10 AM
If someone who has the ability to lucid dream at will, or at least frequently, reads this post, I would appreciate some feedback from your experience:

I've had 3 lucid dreams, two of which I won't discuss.  The 3rd time was by far the most interesting because I was cognizant enough to try a few *tests."

I'm from the Midwest but I attended the first 2 1/2 years of undergrad study in California.  After moving back to the Midwest, I had a dream wherein I was in a familiar place on the beaches along the Pacific Coast with mountain ranges in the backdrop.  However, something about the mountains was noticeably "off" from my normal recollection of that place as I had experienced it in real life, and so that's what triggered my awareness that I was dreaming.

I remember that at the instant I recognized I was dreaming, everything felt *extremely* real and life-like.  I *was* there, and nobody can convince me otherwise.  In the dream, my consciousness was absolutely in a real physical space.  There was, however, a really eerie quality to the realness which was accompanied by a subtle-but-noticeable low-frequency buzzing sound along with an equally subtle-but-noticeable sensation of pressure in my head, almost like a very very weak sinus headache.

Realizing that I was dreaming but hadn't woken up yet, I knew I was lucid, and so I decided to try a few different things to see what would happen.

I was shocked to find how real things actually were.  A literal 10-15 seconds passed with me standing on the beach, looking around me, trying to think of some clever ways to manipulate my situation.

The interesting thing is that I couldn't.  Well, at least not entirely.  The first thing I did was look at the clouds in the sky and try to control them by shifting them around.  I really couldn't do much with the whole cloud, but I found that very small parts of the cloud along the edges were all that I could manipulate.  The best I could manage was to make very small swirls and nudge the edges a bit, as if I was dipping an invisible finger into the cloud and playing with it.

Next, I shifted my attention to the ground, and I tried to move the sand around and draw things in the sand with my mind.  I couldn't, or well, at least not entirely.  Similar to the cloud, I was only able to make small changes, and at best I could only move a few dozen or a few hundred grains of sand around at a time.  Nothing major at all.

Then, I thought about flying.  From here on out, the dream still blows my mind to this day.

This particular section of beach was aligned next to a series of bluffs that run alongside the edge of the ocean.  The bluffs themselves are about 50 feet-or-so in height.  For some reason, I couldn't just take off from where I was and fly.  So, I thought about running to the edge of the bluff, jumping off, and, knowing and trusting in the fact that I was dreaming, I would fly.

So, I started sprinting to the edge of the bluff.  As soon as I got to the edge, I got *very* scared.  Everything was real -- too real -- and I simply knew that I couldn't jump off the bluff.  I knew that if I did, I would die.  To this day, I consider it *very* plausible that if I had decided to jump off the bluff in my dream, I would have fallen and killed myself in real life.  

But things get weirder.  I got a really, really crazy idea.  I decided to try to call my real-life best friend from my dream cell phone.

I pulled my cell out of my pocket, opened it up (it was a flip-phone at the time), and looked at it.  However, none of the numbers on the phone made sense.  Actually, all the numbers on the phone had changed to weird, alien- or Egyptian-like hieroglyphic symbols.  Additionally, the service provider shown at the top of my screen, "Verizon Wireless,"  was changed to "NEW CAPITAL."  

When I read the words "NEW CAPITAL" that was the very first thing that started to make me lose control of the lucid dream.  I then looked out into the ocean, and instead of only seeing water and the series of Channel Islands in the distance off the coast, I also saw three enormous concrete columns, almost like broken columns of the Greek Acropolis, standing in the middle of the ocean about 500 feet out from shore and standing maybe about 200 feet tall.  The sheer weirdness of this sight coupled was enough to fully make me lose control of the lucid dream, and I woke up a few seconds later feeling very, very confused.
1083  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: October 07, 2014, 04:57:31 AM
Instead of that former, answer that following: What makes "death" significant?

The absolute most significant thing about death is, death locks one into his belief position regarding God. If one believes in God for salvation at the time of death, he will receive salvation. If he does not believe in God for salvation, he will lose salvation.

Other than that, there are many things that make death significant. Some of them hold significance for relatives of the deceased. Why do you ask this?

Smiley
Fear of being afraid is that sole sustenance of death.

Never heard it phrased like this before.
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 06, 2014, 09:36:48 PM
they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.



Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid

they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.


Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero


A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  Roll Eyes

i'm in fact all in with btc(well not totally, i still have my house lol), i still think that in a market like this until you don't sell you can't lose, because the chance to see a pump again are high enough

you don't need a wall of text to explain this, it's so simple, and for your last sentence, i can just reply with "don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla", this doesn't make my point less valid at all

that quote is just misleading, it should be "until the coin isn't dead if you don't sell you don't lose anything", no one said that in that quote is implied that the coin can't die

If you can afford to do so and don't mind losing your investment, then that's fine.   But your reply, "Don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla," is irrelevant to the issue of gain or loss.  The question is whether holding in a down market yields a loss, not whether you're okay with it.

I think you're incorrect in that my last point doesn't make yours less valid.  It does, because it's the exact same action you took to reach your current position, only to an extreme degree.  

But seriously, dude, come on.   Even though unrealized gains/losses function the same way in stock trading, bitcoins are currency!  How are you going to sit there and tell me you haven't lost anything when you're holding money that's depreciating in value before your own eyes?!

well if you prefer i can tell you that i have less now because bitcoin declined , but it doesn't mean that i need to panic sell because of that, until i believe in it and i'm willing to hold my "lose" has a chance to come back

you know... "It's not dead until it's really dead"

All of that's fine, and I agree, it's just not what the issue originally was.  Just don't make the mistake of thinking that holding somehow makes you immune to changes in the price-per-unit of your investment.

actually it's exactly the issue because...

it make me kinda immune if the coin survive and go up, which is what i believe; we continuously base our life on some assumptions, this is why life is a gamble itself

it's not absolutely immue, i could agree, but it is certainly relative

Here's the thing: I think you're smart enough that you do understand unrealized gains and losses, but to me it seems that you are (likely without realizing it) sugar coating the issue by whatever means possible, and it does your analysis a disservice.

First, let me say that I truly do not care whether you buy or sell, and in fact I do hope you make good, profitable trading decisions for yourself.  All I'm suggesting is that you look at the way you're approaching the issue.

In your last post, you said, "It makes me kinda immune" and also "it's not absolutely immune" and also "certainly relative."  And then, you bring up assumptions as if to say that you are forced between two assumptions, that either the price will continue to fall, or it will go up.  And, since either is an unknown and it is an assumption, you feel comfortable in your position because for all you know it's just as good as the other one.

But what you're ignoring are the things that are knowable right now and that aren't assumptions.  It's not a matter of perspective what unrealized gains and losses mean for your total and liquid assets.  There is no ambiguity, only raw numbers.

I think you also know this too, but it just seems to me you're sacrificing what you know for what you don't.
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 06, 2014, 08:41:09 PM
Should you sell?  Should you buy?  Should you HODL?  Should you diversify?

The OP starts out quite nicely and balanced. But then it goes on listing only arguments, some of them invalid, why you should get out ASAP.

If you are using entropy as a metaphor, you should also note that decreasing entropy does not mean that the system is getting in any way "better" and increasing entropy does not mean the opposite. If you start up a power plant, it's entropy certainly increases, but that is how you get it to generate electrical output.

Biased. Ignored.

Except I didn't.  Literally the only concrete advice given in the entire post is not not take extreme positions, e.g. 100% HODL or 100% sell.

Also, volatility was the indicator I put forth as a measure of systemic instability, not entropy.

Edit:  Since when did all the legendaries become the cheerleaders from Bring it On?
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 06, 2014, 07:42:44 PM
they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.



Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid

they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.


Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero


A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  Roll Eyes

i'm in fact all in with btc(well not totally, i still have my house lol), i still think that in a market like this until you don't sell you can't lose, because the chance to see a pump again are high enough

you don't need a wall of text to explain this, it's so simple, and for your last sentence, i can just reply with "don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla", this doesn't make my point less valid at all

that quote is just misleading, it should be "until the coin isn't dead if you don't sell you don't lose anything", no one said that in that quote is implied that the coin can't die

If you can afford to do so and don't mind losing your investment, then that's fine.   But your reply, "Don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla," is irrelevant to the issue of gain or loss.  The question is whether holding in a down market yields a loss, not whether you're okay with it.

I think you're incorrect in that my last point doesn't make yours less valid.  It does, because it's the exact same action you took to reach your current position, only to an extreme degree.  

But seriously, dude, come on.   Even though unrealized gains/losses function the same way in stock trading, bitcoins are currency!  How are you going to sit there and tell me you haven't lost anything when you're holding money that's depreciating in value before your own eyes?!

well if you prefer i can tell you that i have less now because bitcoin declined , but it doesn't mean that i need to panic sell because of that, until i believe in it and i'm willing to hold my "lose" has a chance to come back

you know... "It's not dead until it's really dead"

All of that's fine, and I agree, it's just not what the issue originally was.  Just don't make the mistake of thinking that holding somehow makes you immune to changes in the price-per-unit of your investment.
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 06, 2014, 07:05:09 PM
I held back on that post because I thought maybe you were just feeling sorry for someone and wanted to add a little advice. I just wanted to frame your post in the context that it isn't a win-lose game... mostly because I admit to being a firm believer in Bitcoin. Now I just need to clarify why I felt it was in remiss.

I don't like watching anyone here panic, or lose money.  It's not a good feeling.  I didn't think that interjecting the word "game" once would actually avert your attention onto that word and blow it up and forget about everything that came before it.  Half of your entire first response to this post fixated on that one word all by itself.  Sorry, I'll rephrase.  I don't still have stake in the "game," but I still have stake in "[insert other arbitrary label that's completely beside the point here]."

Quote
You made good points about history, but then you talked about systemic death and entropy. Misuse of the term entropy is a pet peeve of mine. It's worse than quantum. There's no need to argue about them here.

Here you go, Slick. Here's your entropy:

Quote
enĚtroĚpy
lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder.
"a marketplace where entropy reigns supreme"
synonyms:   deterioration, degeneration, crumbling, decline, degradation, decomposition, breaking down, collapse

It's not misuse.  You made the complaint (that I'll get to in a second) that placing Bitcoin in an accurate context is irrelevant, and then you go and misplace entropy into a context irrelevant to this discussion.  Entropy as a term can be applied more broadly than what you think.

Quote
But I am completely at a loss why you felt you needed to post this in the first place. What was your presumption?

The title of the thread didn't give you any indication?    The title is, "For those who have no idea what to do."  My presumption is that there are people who have no idea what to do.

Quote
Emotions aren't something people need to be talked through by posting, they are what people need to learn to deal with.

Where did you get the impression this was a counseling session?  Although, the OP can help you to deal with emotions by focusing less on what is unknown (which triggers the stressful emotions) and focusing on what is knowable (thereby hopefully alleviating some stress).

Quote
If people are simply speculating without any understanding, then they deserve no advice at all, nor would they want any.

That's what dicks say.  Some people try very hard to understand and don't.

Quote
Better advice would have been to go talk to someone IRL, not try to feel some sense of "internally and externally consistent context" that Bitcoin is somehow part of some machine and that sometimes machine parts fail. I don't see it that way at all. Forgive me for saying this but you had no moral authority to talk about Bitcoin failing as if you understood the emergent complexities of OPEN SOURCE systems. There are no books on this yet. They are being written as this technology and philosophy unfolds.

"...you had no moral authority to talk about Bitcoin failing as if..."

Lol WHAT?!  I don't even.  Who and where the...

Quote
Besides, the post ended up being a rallying post for Bitcoin bashers that agreed with you without even understanding what you were talking about.

You must be really having a bad day.
1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 06, 2014, 05:20:26 PM
This is a disheartening post.

Likewise Sad

Quote
It misses so many points that have been discussed many times.

That's why I clearly stated that the OP wasn't exhaustive or even comprehensive in its scope.  But I'm genuinely curious which points you're referring to and how they impact affect what I'm saying.

Quote
Because there is so much negativity now I don't want to be accused of being a bag holder. Oh well, I'm happy for you to feel like you won a game or something.

Oh give me a break. Thanks for just ignoring everything except the last line in the OP which I reluctantly posted to be transparent as possible.  The mere inclusion of that last line unquestionably removes bias from the OP.

Quote
You can make vague observations, but it's hardly speculation.

You think?!  Thanks, Captain Obvious.  Dude, Systems Theory isn't supposed to lead to speculation no matter what discipline it's applied to.  For example, systems theory as applied to psychology doesn't outline treatment or a course of action, but rather it helps you understand the psychology of a person or group in a context that can be consistently applied again and again.  All your reply shows is that you don't understand the theory or what it's intended for.  I even flatly stated that the OP is extremely general as it uses a theory which can be, and routinely is, applied to literally dozens of various disciplines.  In other words, I never even tried to speculate.

Quote
These systems you speak of sound like spirituality. That's fine too. Everything is connected and kumbaya right back at ya.

Now you're just going overboard.  The post is supposed to help people who are struggling to grasp the context of the situation due to intense emotions and/or a host of other factors.  The point is to set Bitcoin into a context that is internally and externally consistent throughout.  I'm not going to do your speculating for you or anyone else, but since I have significant experience with modeling these types of things, I thought this was another way I could contribute.
1089  Other / Off-topic / Re: Guess the age (jokingly) on: October 06, 2014, 12:32:38 AM
19
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 08:06:45 AM
**Note: For the record, I released the majority of my holdings between $600-$850 but still have some stake in this market.

this is the real message, the rest is blah blah blah

I interpreted this in two ways, either that this is the sole reason I made the OP or that somehow some small knowledge about my trading history is of more value than the rest of the post.  I'm guessing it's the first one, and it's called dutiful disclosure.
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 05, 2014, 07:54:24 AM
they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.



Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid

they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.


Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero


A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  Roll Eyes

i'm in fact all in with btc(well not totally, i still have my house lol), i still think that in a market like this until you don't sell you can't lose, because the chance to see a pump again are high enough

you don't need a wall of text to explain this, it's so simple, and for your last sentence, i can just reply with "don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla", this doesn't make my point less valid at all

that quote is just misleading, it should be "until the coin isn't dead if you don't sell you don't lose anything", no one said that in that quote is implied that the coin can't die

If you can afford to do so and don't mind losing your investment, then that's fine.   But your reply, "Don't invest more than you can afford and bla bla," is irrelevant to the issue of gain or loss.  The question is whether holding in a down market yields a loss, not whether you're okay with it.

I think you're incorrect in that my last point doesn't make yours less valid.  It does, because it's the exact same action you took to reach your current position, only to an extreme degree.  

But seriously, dude, come on.   Even though unrealized gains/losses function the same way in stock trading, bitcoins are currency!  How are you going to sit there and tell me you haven't lost anything when you're holding money that's depreciating in value before your own eyes?!
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 07:13:27 AM
**Note: For the record, I released the majority of my holdings between $600-$850 but still have some stake in this market.


When did you get in?


Good post, glad I read it

I got into Bitcoin June 2011.

Thank you Smiley
1093  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: are s1's even worth running? on: October 05, 2014, 05:15:15 AM
With temperatures dropping in my region, it's a cheaper form of heat, so yes, it still makes sense for me.
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 02:37:37 AM
Your B3 statement is most interesting to me. Yes more players decreases the odds of a systems collapse however a rather large, at this point, group of speculators does not constitute real global demand for Bitcoin. In other words...I feel Bitcoin is in a battle for its life as a generally accepted global currency.  

I agree.  Despite exponential growth over the past few years, Bitcoin is still at the complete mercy of substantially larger markets and market players.   Although, I would argue that it's hands-down remarkable the resiliency it's demonstrated while competing on a global playing field.  It didn't have the luxury of growing in some economic Petri dish until maturation.  It's amazing that something so small has persevered and made it this far when it's subject to the influence of virtually everyone in the industrialized world.
1095  Economy / Speculation / For those who have no idea what to do on: October 05, 2014, 01:07:51 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeostasis

When things start getting messy and emotions run high, I often find it's useful to remind myself of the basics.  Accordingly, this is a post aimed at those who, over the past few weeks, have become increasingly emotional and panicky about BTC price.

What should you do?  Should you sell?  Should you buy?  Should you HODL?  Should you diversify?  Ultimately, these are unknowns, and the more you focus on the unknown, the less you focus on what is knowable.

So, what is knowable?  Systems Theory is an *extremely* broad, overarching theory of systems in general.  Depending on what discipline Systems Theory is applied to, it will look slightly different and certain systemic aspects will be highlighted over others.  But, the core ideas behind Systems Theory are applicable to virtually everything.  Absolutely everything and anything is a system -- I'm a system, you're a system, and this community is a system.  Most relevant to this post is that the Bitcoin market is a small, economic system nested within much larger economic systems.

Why is this basic knowledge useful?  All systems have some basic properties that, at the very least, can help us to understand the context in which the Bitcoin market exists in relation to other economic markets.

Let's first address some characteristics of all systems:

1) Entropy -- All systems are prone to entropy or decay over time, and will continue to do so without outside influence.

2) Homeostasis -- Homeostasis is a state of balance within a system, and is often achieved when systemic input is delicately balanced by systemic output.   A system in a state of total or near-total homeostasis can be described as stable.  A system not in a state of homeostasis can be described as volatile.

3) Input -- energy flowing into a system from external systems.

4) Output -- energy flowing out of a system into other, external systems.

Example:
Imagine a human being.  From the moment you are born, you are subject to entropy.  You will decay and die without some additional source of energy in the form of received input from some external system (e.g. food, oxygen, etc).  But, simply receiving this input will not guarantee your continued existence.   This systemic input needs to be counterbalanced by systemic output (e.g. excretion, etc.).  The absence of one or the other will lead to a quick death, and extreme imbalances between systemic input and output will cause systemic volatility that can threaten systemic collapse.

Applying Systems Theory to Bitcoin:
This post isn't intended to give you a formula for determining the cause of every tiny movement, but rather to provide some general considerations so that you can place the current state of Bitcoin in a more reasonable context.  Accordingly, here are a few of those considerations, though this is by no means an exhaustive or even comprehensive list:

1) Bitcoin is still a tiny economic system nested among larger ones.  This implies that smaller amounts of systemic input/output will have a larger impact on Bitcoin than they would on some larger economic system.  This is obvious -- simply imagine how, for example, the influx of $1 billion in new money might affect the Bitcoin market vs. how it might affect Google stock.

2) Bitcoin has experienced several phases of enormous systemic input that was not counterbalanced by systemic output.  The rise to the $32 in June 2011 was the first example, the rise to $266 was a second example, and the rise to >$1000 was the third.   These are all examples of periods in which systemic input was grossly mismatched with systemic output.  The inevitable result of these scenarios is systemic imbalance or a lack of homeostasis, thereby increasing the chances of systemic collapse.

3) Bitcoin is not self-correcting.  It is inherently linked to external systems from and to which energy is transferred.  This dependence upon other systems is specifically what removes any guarantee whatsoever of recovery.  

For the dense, let me repeat and highlight that last sentence:  This dependence upon other systems is specifically what removes any guarantee whatsoever of recovery.

4) Volatility doesn't care which direction you're moving or whether you're making or losing money, it is simply a reflection of instability within a system.  Although I'm certainly generalizing a bit with this next example, it's equally 'bad' in terms of instability whether the price goes up $100 in a day or falls $100.  Accordingly, you shouldn't be looking to your trading success or lack thereof as an indicator of market health.

Again, this list is extremely short and by no means comprehensive, but I thought I'd get the ball rolling with some general advice (Note:  I am NOT a licensed professional).  I like people, which means that I generally like all of you, and I don't enjoy reading stories of people making investment decisions that end up ruining their lives.  So, here goes:

1)  To HODLers, there is absolutely 0% guarantee of a price recovery, and it is absolutely possible for this system to die.

2)  Systemic death can begin at any price.  Volatility and a lack of homeostasis lead to systemic death, not a low price.

3)  However, as Bitcoin grows, its resistance to systemic death increases.  Furthermore, as systemic output grows to match systemic input, the chances of re-establishing a homeostatic state increase.  Consequently, even this precipitous price drop from the ATH over the course of nearly a year is not conclusive evidence of a dying Bitcoin market, but possibly of one that is mending and healing itself.  This is directed towards the doomsday prophets on this forum.

4)  Avoid extreme positions.  Don't commit yourself to sinking with the ship, but also don't pretend icebergs can't or don't exist.

**Note: For the record, I released the majority of my holdings between $600-$850 but still have some stake in this market.
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 10:15:01 PM
I'll admit I had high hopes for btc, but the last bubble has no reason to repeat itself.
Very good point. The last bubble, from about $120 to $1100, was driven by the use of Bitcoin in China to get around China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China stopped that, the price started back down.

Probably not.  Did you read the Willy Report?

They are only rumors.

But chinese exchanges have the biggest volumes, even now

It's not a rumor that there were trading bots buying more than a half-million BTC continually over the course of a few months.  That's concrete.
1097  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 09:58:56 PM
I'll admit I had high hopes for btc, but the last bubble has no reason to repeat itself.
Very good point. The last bubble, from about $120 to $1100, was driven by the use of Bitcoin in China to get around China's exchange controls. Once the People's Bank of China stopped that, the price started back down.

Probably not.  Did you read the Willy Report?
1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop using the term "weak hands" on: October 04, 2014, 09:47:39 PM
they are losing money if they are holding btc.  

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.



Please stop with this already. It's an unrealized loss, which doesn't make it any less real.

unrealized... how do you know that it won't go up again? magic ass ball? that thing is true, but maybe the sentence is not completed, i repeat it here

until there is a chance to go up again, you won't lose anything if you just hold and don't sell for less than you paid

they are losing money if they are holding btc. 

You only lose when you sell for less than you paid.

Nobody has ever lost money by holding.


Are you literally stupid?

I mean literally, like IQ under 90?

Because you do realise what unrealised losses are?

Or not?

How dumb are you?

read above and tell me how much is your QI now, i think is lower than 90, probably the same number without the zero


A few things about this post:

1)  If you've been holding in a down market, then two bad things have happened to you.  First, you've lost purchasing power.  Second, you haven't even realized your loss so that you can write it off on your taxes this year.  It's a really bad habit to get into to try to pull all sorts of mental gymnastics to try to convince yourself that you're a good investor and you're making money when your position is continually losing ground.

2)  Saying "how do you know it won't go up again?" is a question that holds as much weight as "how do you know it won't keep going down?"  It means nothing.   There is no information to pull from it that can help you to make a rational decision.  Furthermore, there are no magic rules of investing that dictate an investment must appreciate after significant periods of depreciation.  

3)  This is more of a personal observation, but I really think that a lot of people's investment decisions are heavily influenced by discussions on this forum, and not in a good way.  I see a lot of permabulls and permabears, but it's shockingly uncommon to read posts that aren't emotionally loaded and don't veer to one extreme or the other.  For a lot of people, there is no middle ground.

4) "Until there is a chance to go up again..."?  What the hell?   I don't even know where to begin with this. *Every* moment is a chance for BTC to up again.  Where have you been the past 10-11 months?  Bitcoin isn't dropping in price due to chance, just as Bitcoin didn't shoot past $1000 USD by chance.  Focus on *real* things.  Instead of thinking about the "chance" that BTC might go up again, maybe you should first ask yourself why you aren't buying all the BTC you can right now.   It might be a good starting place as it may provide insight as to why everyone else isn't out buying up all the BTC.

5)  Here's a thought experiment for you:  How about you sell all of your belongings for BTC and hold them indefinitely?  According to your logic, this will preserve your wealth for infinite time (as long as you don't sell).  Ingenious, right?  Roll Eyes
1099  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: October 02, 2014, 03:04:04 PM
I should post a video of my latest super hot 18 year old gf inside my whip saying how much she loves my fat schlong.

You know how many teen p0rn stars I've dated?

More than most people have had regular gf's with.

You know in 1996 when I had 1 Million Plus people a day to my network, I believed the BS build it they will come and then sell ads.

So while CNN/AOL/TIME was conning the world that they were getting $40 M for banners I was one of the few people saying BULLSH*T

Turned out all their sales were paper trades between themselves and that's what crashed the original dot-com bubble.

Now in the later 1990's, you know the first real industry that built the damn net and got all the optic cable stuff installed to feed high speed internet?

P0RN

Had it not been for P0RN the net would still be 56K dial up

Same with Amazon, had it not been for erotica, there would be no kindle and no nook.

Sex drives humanity, it's why there's 7 Billion wastes of DNA energy populating this prison rock.

Now P0RN is free, it's all given away to get people to go to what, live cams and gambling.

So if bitcoin focuses on sex and gambling, it will become the net's underground currency and the underground economy is HUGE>

Drugs
Sex
Gambling

The big 3 vices.

Face it, overstock, expedia, paypal, none of it will move btc into a major alt currency.

SEX
DRUGS
GAMBLING

Will




Well now, this is about the most factual thing I've ever read.
1100  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why consumers are not adopting BTC on: October 02, 2014, 04:29:02 AM
You guys can blast the OP all you want, but he does have some valid points.  In my opinion, the biggest weakness of bitcoin from the consumer standpoint is one simple thing: consumer protections.
1) Escrow  and 2) Circle are now insuring deposits (bank like) - they won't be the last.

(facepalm) Typical gloomy attitude when the exchange rate is depressed.

It's always the same, every single time.

I think this is the crux of the problem here. We all have our moments of doubt - especially when the exchange rate is shit. Over on the speculation section of the forum I think they refer to it as "shaking out the weak hands", or somesuch  Wink

Escrow does absolutely *nothing* to protect the consumer and is a false sense of security.

I never understood the emphasis on using escrow services in many cases.  For most transactions, using an escrow service actually adds risk rather than eliminating it -- instead of having to trust one person, now you need to trust at least two.  The only reason escrow is useful on these forums is because you can reasonably determine the authenticity of a reputable member acting as an escrow agent, and you can make reasonable assumptions about what the escrow agent would stand to gain/lose by running off with the money; you can't make the same assumptions about a newbie.  
As long as the escrow service's reputation is worth more then the transaction in question then it would not make sense for them to run away with your bitcoin. Since a person with zero feedback has reputation that is worth zero there is a very good chance they will scam while a person with reputation has a much less of a chance of scamming

Sure, and I basically conceded that exact point in my post.  However, I'd like to point out that any well-known, reputable escrow agent didn't start out that way.  

You guys can blast the OP all you want, but he does have some valid points.  In my opinion, the biggest weakness of bitcoin from the consumer standpoint is one simple thing: consumer protections.
1) Escrow  and 2) Circle are now insuring deposits (bank like) - they won't be the last.

(facepalm) Typical gloomy attitude when the exchange rate is depressed.

It's always the same, every single time.

I think this is the crux of the problem here. We all have our moments of doubt - especially when the exchange rate is shit. Over on the speculation section of the forum I think they refer to it as "shaking out the weak hands", or somesuch  Wink

Escrow does absolutely *nothing* to protect the consumer and is a false sense of security.

I never understood the emphasis on using escrow services in many cases.  For most transactions, using an escrow service actually adds risk rather than eliminating it -- instead of having to trust one person, now you need to trust at least two.  The only reason escrow is useful on these forums is because you can reasonably determine the authenticity of a reputable member acting as an escrow agent, and you can make reasonable assumptions about what the escrow agent would stand to gain/lose by running off with the money; you can't make the same assumptions about a newbie.  
I don't understand. Escrow is an essential part of commerce and has been used for centuries.

Payment processors (e.g. PayPal) and banks, while primarily intended to suit other purposes, also fulfill the characteristics of an escrow agent.  Cypriots recently found out first hand that even large, reputable escrow agents can't guarantee safety (it's irrelevant whether the bank or the government is responsible).  Even waiters/waitresses fulfill the characteristics of escrow agents, and there have certainly been resulting instances of fraud and theft despite the fact that >99% of the time nobody ever thinks twice about letting the waitress run off with a credit card for a few minutes.  But really, my post was focused primarily on the use of escrow in the crypto-market, though I should have made that a bit clearer.
Pages: « 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55] 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 ... 230 »
Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!