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Date : 9th November 2022.

Market Update – November 9 – USD Weaker, Stocks Firmer, Crypto Crash, Republicans set to win the House.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index slipped further to test 109.20 yesterday, and trades at 109.60, at today. Stocks moved higher again (DOW +1.00%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $20.5k to under $16.8k, lows before recovering, as leading crypto exchange FTX was forced to sell out to rival Binance. Asian shares have slipped too (Nikkei -0.56%, Hang Seng -1.88%). Chinese Inflation was mixed with CPI cooling to 2.5% from 2.4% but PPI -1.3% vs -1.5%.

Mid Term election results are suggesting a win for the Republicans in the House (but not the Red Wave landslide some had predicted) while the Senate remains very close with a key win in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. A gridlocked Washington, even if the Democrats hold-on to control in the Senate, which many assume will be beneficial for stock-markets and see a weaker USD appears to be the most likely outcome.

*EUR – continued to rally yesterday and tested the next resistance at 1.0100, and trades at 1.0060, holding the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
*JPY – dipped again breaching 146.00 to 145.25 lows and trades at 145.85.
*GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1440, but then rallied to test 1.1600 and holds at 1.1540 now.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied over 1.75% from open, gave up all their gains and then clawed back 0.5-1.0%. Big movers included COIN -10.78%, LYFT -22.9% and TSLA -2.93% (Musk sold $3.95bn shares). US500 closed +21 (+0.56%) at 3828, FUTS trades at 3827 now.

*USOil – rejected $93.00, collapsed through $90.00 and trades at $88.50 now.
*Gold – spiked from $1665 lows, over $1680 and $1700 resistance to trade at $1710.
*BTC – crashed to $16.8k from $20.5k, before recovering to $18.3k now. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was forced to sell his exchange to rival Binance as a run on FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research. The company was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022.

Today – US Mid Term Election Results, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Haskel.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.42%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, to 0.5900 to test 0.6000 but now is down again to 0.5935. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 49.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00156, Daily ATR 0.01070.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th November 2022.

Market Update – November 8 – US Midterms Election Day.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index slipped further to test 110.00 yesterday, a -2.65% decline from Thursday’s high at 113.00, trades at 110.25 today. Stocks rallied another +1.00%, Yields moved higher again (10-yr 4.163%) and the Commodity Complex cooled from Fridays rally as Beijing reaffirmed its strict pandemic rules. Overnight the Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $21k to under $19.5k.

Markets are pricing in a “lame-duck” President Biden for the final 2-yrs of his administration as Republicans are likely to take control of the House of Representatives, with likely curbs on the debt ceiling, spending cuts and action to support energy companies, as inflation bites into businesses and households. A loss of the Senate too for President Biden would completely restrict any political actions regarding immigration, additional support for Ukraine and environmental policies. TRUMP “Big announcement” November 15.

*EUR – continued to rally yesterday and breached the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
*JPY – dipped to 146.10 lows from 147.50 and remains capped by 147.00 today.
*GBP – Sterling rallied over 200 pips again yesterday from 1.1300 to over 1.1540, but has since *sunk below 1.1500.
*Stocks – Wall Street closed higher, tech led again META +6.53%, (job cuts) GOOG & MFST over +2.2% and TSLA –5.01%. US500 closed +36.25 (+0.96%) at 3806, FUTS trades at 3808 now.

*USOil – spiked over $93.00, yesterday before slipping to close at $92.00 and lower again now at $91.40.
*Gold – once again tested Friday’s close at $1680 before drifting to $1675 into close and $1670 now.
*BTC – drifted from $21.2k, top Monday to $20.5k at close, before tankingto $19.3k lows today as FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao trade allegations. It traces back to FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and a report from CoinDesk that says Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research has about $6 billion of its $14.6 billion assets in the coin, which his other company created.Today EZ Sentix, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins. COP27 sees world leaders in Egypt this week and US clocks moved back 1 hour so the difference between London (GMT) & New York (ET) back to 5 hours.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, US Midterms, Speeches from BoE’s Pill (x2), Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Nagel & SNB’s Jordan.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.47%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, beyond Friday’s high to 0.5952, to 0.5900 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 41.42 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00114, Daily ATR 0.01091.

Date : 7th November 2022.

Market Update – November 7 – USD subdued & Commodities hold onto gains.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The mixed NFP data on Friday, the rumours of China removing Zero Covid restrictions and comments from FED member Evans all combined to see a bounce in stock markets, a cooler USD and a gargantuan leap in Commodity prices. NFP head line beat at 261K vs 200k and last month was revised higher to 351k, Earnings slipped to 4.7% from 5.0% but Unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, suggesting the interest rate hikes are beginning to have an impact. The USD Index slumped to 110.70, from 112.75 highs. Stocks rallied +1.25% on Friday, but declined -1.39% to -5.65% last week. Yields moved higher (10-yr 4.163%). The major beneficiary was the Commodity Complex which leaped between 3.36%-8.00%. Evans suggested that the FED may start “thinking” about pausing, even if that did not happen until Q423. Asian stocks are firmer today despite Chinese Covid infections hitting a 6-mth high, Beijing reaffirming strict pandemic rules and a big miss for Chinese trade.
*EUR – rallied from close to hit 8-day lows on Friday at 0.9730 over 200 pips to 0.9960. Villeroy: It could take 2-3 years for inflation to return to target & rate hikes need to continue.
*JPY – has retaken 147.00 and trades at 147.40 from 146.60 NFP lows.
*GBP – Sterling tested 1.1150 again following the immediate NFP announcement but closed at 1.1370 and trades back to 1.1300 now.
*Stocks – Wall Street were higher with big moves for Tech stocks again (MSFT +3.33%, GOOG +3.85%, Alibaba +7.05%, JD.com +9.74%). US500 closed +50.02 (+1.36%) at 3770, (a loss of -3.34% for the week) FUTS trades at 3763 now. Berkshire Hathaway posted a Q3 loss of $2.69b, but operating profits beat estimates by 20% and stock investments increased by $3.7b.

*USOil – charged from $87.75 lows on Friday to test the $93.00 zone, rallying over 5% following all the “China opening” gossip. Back to $91.00 now.
*Gold – gained over 3.4% on Friday closing at $1680 and breaching key levels. Back to $1670 now.
*BTC – rallied with the weaker USD and risk on mood on Friday to top at $21.2k, back to $20.6k now, but holding above the key $20K level.

Today EZ Sentix, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins. COP27 sees world leaders in Egypt this week and US clocks moved back 1 hour so the difference between London (GMT) & New York (ET) back to 5 hours.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.72%) reversing some of Friday’s rally to 0.5935, from 0.5740 on Thursday, and trades at 0.5875 now. MAs unaligned & flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 50.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00198, Daily ATR 0.01077.

Date : 3rd November 2022.

Market Update – November 3 – FED – Slower Hikes but for Longer.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The FOMC rose rates by the as expected 75bp (4th consecutive hike to 14-year highs) and suggested lower rate hikes – “time to reassess pace of rate hikes is coming” – (50bp into Dec and 25bp into Q123) but perhaps for longer, “very premature to think about pausing.” Also suggesting a higher terminal rate, (5.1%) and then Powell re-iterated that “we have some ways to go until inflation is defeated.” USD and Stocks whipsawed wildly on the two-edged communication. Also this week jobs market remains HOT, JOLTS were better & ADP at 239K was 23% over expectations – so today’s claims and tomorrow’s NFP will be key.
*USDIndex – Dived to 110.25 on initial headline, but trades 1.8% higher now at 112.23. US Stocks rallied and then tanked lower into close (NASDAQ -3.36% underperformed again). 10-yr yields flirted under 4.0% but hold at 4.06%, and the 2-10yr yield curve remains the most inverted (and therefore most recessionary in 22 years). Asian markets weaker and EUR futures flat.
*Overnight – AUD Services PMIs better than expected (49.3) & Chinese Service PMIs worse than expected (48.4) both still in contraction.
*EUR – from a spike to 0.9980 has dropped to 0.9780 now.
*JPY – dipped to 145.80 but now trades at 147.85.
*GBP – Sterling lifted to 1.1560 on the immediate FED announcement before Powell press conference took it to 1.1340 now. Today the Bank of England is expected to follow FED with a 75bp interest rate hike (biggest in 33 years and taking rates in UK to 3%)
*Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (AMZN -4.83%, GOOG -3.79%) in particular. US500 closed -96.08 (-2.50%) at 3756, FUTS trades at 3762 now.

*USOil – rallied from $87.75 lows yesterday up to $90.00, after inventory draw-down of -3.1m vs 0.2m. Prices have now dipped to $89.00.
*Gold – from a spike to $1670 yesterday, trades at week lows at $1630 today.
*BTC – slipped from $20.5k, pivot back to test 20k earlier back to 20.2k now.

Today Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, Services PMI, Factory Orders & ISM Services, Norges Bank & BoE Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, de Cos, Panetta & Elderson. Earnings – Rolls-Royce, Sainsbury’s, ING, BNP, Stellantis, Euronext, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, PayPal & Moderna.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.61%) from a spike to 0.6480 now down to 0.6315 and testing 0.6300. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 27.05, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.00279, Daily ATR 0.01077.

Date : 1st November 2022.

Market Update – November 1 – USD & Stocks cool following strong October.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Slipped from 3-day highs at 111.50 to 110.80. Weak Factory data across Asia but stocks rally on speculation that China could be exiting zero-Covid policy. RBA ups inflation target to 8% from 7.75% and increases rates by 25bp in-line with expectations to 2.85% (7th in 7 months) mark a new 9-year high. “The path to achieving this balance (lower inflation) remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty,” Lowe. US Stocks lower (NASDAQ -1.03%) underperformed, after huge moves in October (DJIA30 +13.95%, S&P500 +7.99% & Nasdaq +3.9%). Asian markets rocket (Hang Seng +6.03%), European FUTS also higher.
*Overnight – Chinese Manu PMI’s rose but remain in contraction (49.2), JPY Manu. PMI flat at 50.7.
*EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 yesterday before recovering to 0.9920 earlier.
*JPY – rallied to 5-day high at 148.85 yesterday before declining to 147.75 now. It’s believed BOJ had spent $42.8b supporting the Yen in October. Today Fin Min. Suzuki said “Further sharp yen weakening is unfavourable with inflation being an issue”.
*GBP – Sterling dived from 1.1600 to 1.1460 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today. Wide ranging tax rises and spending cuts are expected from the Nov. 17 Autumn statement. BOE 75 bp rate increase expected on Thursday.
*Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (META -6%) in particular. Musk sacks all directors and becomes CEO of Twitter. US500 closed -29.08 (-0.75%) at 3871, FUTS trades at 3900 now. BP lifted profits by 32% to $8.15b vs $6.16b. Toyota profits dropped 25%, Aramco profits up 39%.

*USOil – rallied from $85.50 lows yesterday to test $87.75 now. Biden warns of windfall taxes on non-invested profits of US oil companies.
*Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1650 today from $1630 yesterday.
*BTC – rotates around $20.5k, following the 14th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper “Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper.”

Today UK & US Manu. PMI, US ISM Manu. PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, EARNINGS – BP, (+32% beat) Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.75%) Rallied a whole point from 0.5775 to 0.5875 today, back to 0.5860 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.05, having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01060.

Date : 31st October 2022.

Market Update – October 31- October Ends!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – advanced a bit this morning but held below 111.00 ahead of the Fed this week. Treasuries were hammered after still hot inflation numbers and tight labor market conditions spooked bond holders and sparked heavy profit taking at week’s end. This morning, China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell in October, JPY Retail Sales beat but Consumer confidence and Housing starts missed significantly. German retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in September.
*EUR – hovering around parity 1.0000.
*JPY – further pressure at 147.90 after BOJ decision to keep ultra-low interest rates on Friday and disappointing retail sales this morning;
*GBP – reverts from 1.1600 (75 bp increases from BOE on Thursday?)
*Stocks – Steadied after closed largely in green last week. Guidance from mega tech, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, earnings have generally beaten, albeit a very low bar. Chevron & Exxon beat expectations. Better revenue and profit news from Apple (up 7.6% Friday, its biggest daily jump since July 2020) helped boost investor sentiment today, while hopes the FOMC will back off aggressive rate hikes after the well expected 75 bps on Wednesday supported too.
*US30 had its 4th consecutive week higher and all markets closed +2.5% (its best month since 1976). 263 companies of S&P500 have reported, 73% have beat expectations. Today though US futures are in red.

*USOil – at $86.80, struggling to hold above the 20- & 50-DMA.
*Gold – set for a new drift? Currently back to $1642 area.
*BTC – back to $20.4k now.
*Reuters – Russia’s backtrack from a UN-brokered deal to export Black Sea grains is likely to hit shipments to import-dependent countries, deepening the global food crisis and sparking gains in prices. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat booked for delivery to Africa and the Middle East are at risk following Russia’s withdrawal, while Ukrainian corn exports to Europe will get knocked lower.

Today The new month and NFP will add to the mix this week. Today European prelim. GDP for Q3, tomorrow morning RBA Rate decision and Statement. EARNINGS – Aflac, Stryker, Williams, Companies, etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.98%) Extended above 86 area as antipodean are on track for an October gain ahead of RBA tomorrow. 1-hour MAs & RSI & Stochastics flattened but MACD histogram & signal line kept well above 0. H1 ATR 0.179, Daily ATR 1.299.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th October 2022.

Market Update – October 27 – USD Lower, BOC Surprise, META & Samsung Miss.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Slumped to under 110.00 to 109.40. US new home sales dropped -10.9% in September, in line with expectations and BOC surprised markets with only a 50bp interest rate hike to 3.75%. Macklem had suggested more concern over risks from higher inflation following the rise in the latest CPI data. However, it will continue to tighten, sees terminal rate at 4.5%, there is still “excess demand,” in the economy and that a technical recession is just as likely as modest growth, cutting 2022 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%, 2023 to 0.9% from 1.8%, and 2% in 2024 from 2.4%.
*Stocks sank (NASDAQ +2.25%) underperformed. Poor earnings and guidance from big tech (Google plunged -9%), and then Meta (-5.6%) missed and sank -20% after hours, wiping $67 billion off its market cap. Concerns over Apple and Amazon today. Asian markets rose initially but closed mixed. (Nikkei –0.32%, Hang Seng 1.60%), European FUTS also mixed. AUD imports prices 3 x higher than expected, but German GfK Consumer Climate not as bad as expected.
*EUR – leaped over parity 1.0000, land topped at 1.0093 earlier, now ahead of the ECB at 12:15 GMT.
*JPY – Cooled again, under 146.00 to 145.40 lows, ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later tomorrow. Friday’s pre-BOJ intervention peak took the pair to 152.00.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again (another 150+ pips) yesterday to test 1.1600 and trades to 1.1645 today. UK’s mid-term Fiscal statement was postponed from Monday to Nov. 17 as Gilts continue to recover with tax rises and spending cuts expected.
*Stocks – Wall Street were mixed with big moves for Tech stocks in particular. US500 closed -28.5 (-0.74%) at 3830, FUTS trades at 3850 now.

*USOil – rallied from $84.35 lows again yesterday to test $88.40 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $87.60 now. IEA Oil Inventories – big build 2.588M vs 1.029M.
*Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1675, yesterday before moving back to $1662 now.
*BTC – rallied again to test $21.0k, back to $20.7k now and holding the important $20k.

Today ECB Announcement & President Lagarde’s PC, US Quarterly PCE Advance, GDP Advance and Durable Goods. EARNINGS – Amazon, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Gilead, AB InBev, Credit Suisse, (in-line), Deutsche Lufthansa, and more.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.71%) Tank from over 170.00 yesterday to 168.80 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 28.05, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.299, Daily ATR 2.762.

Date : 26th October 2022.

Market Update – October 26 – More Bad News is Good News, USD Slips, Stocks Rise & Yields Cool.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Slumped to under 111.00 to 110.75. Weak Housing, the Richmond Manu. Index and Consumer Confidence, added to the outlook, initiated on Friday that rapid rate rises are beginning to have an impact and thus Fed funds futures continue to pare expectations for the terminal rate. From a 5.1% rate as soon as March early last week, implied rates have eased and are showing a 4.88% rate in May, 4.73% in September and hitting 4.50% by December.
*Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.25%) for a third consecutive day and weighing on yields but US10yr still holds over 4.0%. Rishi Sunak confirmed as new UK PM, lifting GBP, Gilts & UK100. MSFT & Alphabet both missed Earnings after hours. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows again but remain positive. (Nikkei +0.80% Hang Seng 0.86%), European FUTS also higher. AUD CPI hit a 32-yr high at 7.3%.
*EUR – leaped over 100 pips from 0.9850, lows yesterday to 0.9978 now ahead of an expected 75 bp rate hike from the ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – Cooled from yesterday’s pivot at 148.85, through 148.00 to 147.85 now, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week.
*GBP – Sterling rallied strongly (over 230 pips) yesterday to test the key 1.1500 psychological level as Sunak became PM and ruthlessly implemented his own cabinet.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+1.07-2.25%) SNAP a further +15.52% after Fridays drumming, TSLA +5.29% & TWTR +2.45%, (Musk said the deal to be done by Friday). MSFT & GOOGL both -6.75% after hours. US500 closed at 3859, FUTS trades at 3830 now.

*USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.50 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $84.70 now.
*Gold – dipped to $1640, yesterday before breaching $1660 to test $1665 resistance.
*BTC – rallied from $19.2k support to breach the important $20k to trade at $20.1k now.

Today EZ M3, US New Home Sales, BOC Announcement. EARNINGS – Meta, Boeing, BASF, Deutsche Bank (beat), Mercedes-Benz (profits significantly higher), Standard Chartered (beat) Barclays, and more.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.56%) Rallied from 0.6300 yesterday to 0.6435 now following surprise rise in AUD CPI, next resistance 0.6450. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.82, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01100.

Date : 25th October 2022.

Market Update – October 25 – Stocks Higher, USD lower, Sunak new UK PM.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Tested down to 111.50 and remains below 112.00. PMI data was weak across the globe, falling further into contraction, this added to the sentiment that the FED may be able to cool aggressive interest hikes in December, lifting stocks (save Chinese tech companies) and weighing on yields. Riski Sunak, set to become new UK PM lifted, GBP, Gilts & UK100. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows but recovered on back of positive Wall Street close (Nikkei +1.02% Hang Seng +0.5%), European FUTS also higher.
*EUR – rotated from 0.9800, lows yesterday back to 0.9900 today, trades at 0.9870 now ahead of ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – Friday and early Monday volatility cooled through the US & Asian sessions with the pair now pivoting at 148.85, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week.
*GBP – Sterling rotates around 1.1300 ahead of former UK Fin. Minister, Rishi Sunak, becoming the youngest UK PM in modern history and the first British Asian.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+0.86-1.34%) SNAP recovered +7.09% after Fridays drumming, (Alibaba -12.4%, Tencent -14.6%, JD.com -13.02%) HSBC & UBS both beat expectations today. US500 3797 (+1.19%) US500 FUTS trades at 3810 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings.

*USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.00 today, Oil markets remain prone volatile newsflow.
*Gold – rotates through $1650. Recent lows at $1620 remains support and $1665 resistance.
*BTC – $19.5K was tested again yesterday and remains resistance, with $19.2K support so far, this week.

Today German Ifo Survey, Australian Federal Budget, US Richmond Fed, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Alphabet, Microsoft, GM, UPS, GE, Raytheon, Coca-Cola, 3M, Visa, and more.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Collapsed from 0.7880 to 0.7765 yesterday but has recovered to 0.7830 today, next resistance 0.7850. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 54.90 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00121, Daily ATR 0.00935.

Date : 24th October 2022.

Market Update – October 24 – Mixed China Data, Sterling Rallies, Yen Whipsaws.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Spiked down to 111.30 following more BOJ intervention as the JPY whipsawed and GBP rallied following the news that Boris Johnson will not run for PM again. USDIndex is now back to 112.00. Xi Jinping cemented power for a third 5-year term, Chinese data very mixed, GDP & Ind Production & Trade balance all big beats but Unemployment rises and Retail sales misses significantly. AUD & JPY Manu. PMI’s both missed. More Fedspeak over weekend shows signs that some may be looking to slow down rate hikes, possibly as early as the December meeting. Has cycle-high “Peak Dollar” been realised? Asian markets also very mixed following Chinese data, despite strong Wall Street close (Nikkei +0.51% Hang Seng -5.54%), European FUTS higher.
*EUR – rotated from 0.9700, lows on Friday to 0.9900 today as USD demand swung wildly.
*JPY – FT reported that BOJ bought $30 bln Yen on Friday as the pair hit 152.00, spiked to down to 146.00, before rallying to 149.50 again today and then further signs of BOJ action took the pair to 145.70 before once again recovering to 149.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from 1.1060 lows on Friday to close at 1.1300 and then rally to 1.1400 on open following Johnson news. Trades at 1.1360 now. A Sunak/Hunt combination the most acceptable to the markets, Gilts, Sterling and FTSE FUTS all higher.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied on Friday (+2.37-2.47%) and had its best week (+4.74- 5.22%) in 4 mths. SNAP tanked -28.08% on worst Earnings in 5-years as Advertisers cut back (Pintrest -6.4%, META -1.6%) Weak earnings too from AMEX -1.67% & Verizon -4.46%) US500 3752 (+2.37%) US500 FUTS trades at 3766 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings.

*USOil – from $83.00 lows on Friday to $85.51 highs today and now trades at $84.00.
*Gold – plunged to $1617 lows on Friday before recovering to $1670 peaks today and trades at $1654 now.
*BTC – plummeted to test $18.5K on Friday, spiked to $19.7k today before slipping back to $19.3k now.

Today EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election (Sunak likely new PM).

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+1.11%) Johnson will NOT run – Sterling rallied from sub 165.500 lows Friday and again today to 169.75 highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 57.50 & rising, H1 ATR 1.117, Daily ATR 3.005.

Date : 20th October 2022.

Market Update – October 20 – 35th Anniversary Not Too Traumatic.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex rallies to 113 but currently steady. Yields jump near the highs of the session, and indeed multi-year peaks, with some impetus from higher than expected inflation out of the UK and Canada. Ongoing hawkish Fedspeak kept bond bears in control too. The break of 4.10% on the 10-year added to the selloff, as did a disappointing 20-year auction and a hefty corporate calendar.
*Supply is pressuring the stock market with a corporate issuance and a 20-year auction hitting today. Lockheed Martin has a 5-tranche sale slated, including 3-, 5-, 10-, 32-, and 41-year maturities. Diageo Capital has a 3-, 5-, and 10-year offering on the calendar. Procter & Gamble and Nestlé reported lower sales volumes.
*Stocks – Stocks closed in red as the US100, the tech heavy index, finished with a -0.85% loss, and the US500 was off -0.67%, with the US30 down -0.33%.

*EUR – turns down to 20-DMA & below 0.9800.
*JPY – held below 150 as BOJ announces unscheduled bond buying as key yield broke ceiling ($667 million in government debt).
*GBP – under pressure at 1.1856. Britain’s interior minister Suella Braverman resigned criticising Liz Truss. This reflects the continued erosion of the PM’s authority after just weeks in the job. 1922 Committee meets today!
*USOil – climbed 3.55% to $85.76, ignoring the White House’s announcement of an additional 15 mln barrels of oil to be released from the SPR. Nat gas slumped another -5.24% to $5.44.
*Gold – extends lower! Currently at $1629 area.

Today EU Aug. current account, US Oct. Philly Fed index & Sep. existing homes. Earnings: Ericsson, ABB, Akzo Nobel, Nordea, Volvo, Danaher, Philip Morris, AT&T, Barclays etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCHF spiked to 0.9840. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal bullishly crossed, RSI 69 & rising. H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00641.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th October 2022.

Market Update – October 18 – Stocks Rally; Pound Climbs; Truss Sorry.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex gets softer, breaking 112.00 floor and currently at 111.70. Treasuries gained ground though pared the rally into the close, richened though underperformed Gilts and European bonds. Much of the impetus again came from across the Pond after new UK Chancellor Hunt confirmed a complete U-turn on the government’s fiscal plan. The bull steepener saw the curve at -44 bps from -48 bps Friday.
A weaker than expected Empire State index has added to beliefs the FOMC’s tightening is cutting into growth and will ultimately lower inflation, hence slowing rate hikes down the road.
*EUR – crossed 20-DMA and currently at 0.9850.
*JPY – at 149.10 for the first time since August 1990.

*Stocks – US100 paced the surge, jumping 3.43%, while the US500 climbed 2.66%, back above Support level at 3700 (20-DMA), with the US30 up 1.86%. The UK100 was up as much as 1.47% before gains were trimmed to 0.90%. Bank of America’s Q3 earnings beat expectations, attributed to “resilient” US consumers (share price +6%). JPMorgan Chase reported smaller than expected drop in profits.

*USOil – holds support at $85 amid softer USD and as Russia cuts supplies to Europe. – A weaker USD makes oil cheaper for non-US buyers.
*Gold – $1660.
*BTC – extends some gains from yesterday to $19534.
*UK Chancellor Hunt announced overnight the scrapping of plans to cut income tax indefinitely & the plan to reduce the entry level tax will be shelved. Cuts to dividend tax rates and tourist VAT will be reversed as well. At the same time, the UK will shorten universal energy support to April 2023 and instead the government will look into more targeted support measures. Hunt warned that more difficult decisions are coming on spending in order to get finances under control and restore market trust in the UK economy. So far it has worked as the Gilt yield plunged 35 bps to 2.83%, the FTSE climbed to 6920, and Cable tested 1.1439 before dipping back to 1.1327 at the close.
*The BOE is likely to delay the sale of 838 billions pounds of government bonds to encourage greater stability in gilt markets following Britain’s failed “mini” budget, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

Today US Monthly Budget and EU ZEW. Earnings: J&J, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%) topped to 0.5700 after hotter-than-expected CPI data. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend northwards, RSI 71 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.00155, Daily ATR 0.0136.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th October 2022.

Market Update – October 17 – Tug-of-war!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – steady at 112.90 following US inflation which reinforced bets of a 90.9% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, and a 9.1% chance of a 100 bp increase in the Fed’s next meeting. Yields down, 10-year Treasury rate is down -4.1 bp at 3.977% and the German Bund future has corrected -6.3 bp, after the JGB rate corrected -0.3 bp to 0.24%.
GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.1300 on calls for PM Truss to resign and ahead of UK Chancellor announcement for tax and spending measures, 2 weeks earlier than scheduled, as he tries to stem a loss of confidence in the government’s fiscal plans. Truss said on Friday that corporation tax will rise to 25% from April 2023 instead of remaining it at 19% as part of her government’s initial “mini-budget”. Medium-term fiscal plan remains as scheduled on Oct. 31.
Daily Mail reported that: “British lawmakers will try to oust Truss this week despite Downing Street’s warning that it could trigger a general election.”
EUR – slightly up to 0.9735.
JPY – pinned to 32-year (1990) highs at 148.79 as markets await signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.
Stocks – Stock markets have remained under pressure overnight, after a weak close on Wall Street Friday, after inflation concerns were rekindled by a US survey showing the first rise in inflation expectations in a while. Still, US futures are higher and with a nearly 1% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.
China and Hong Kong stocks fell after Chinese President Xi talked up national security, while dashing hopes of any changes in growth-hitting zero-COVID policies and property sector curbs. Xi called for accelerating the building of a world-class military, while touting the fight against COVID-19 as he kicked off the Communist Party Congress on Sunday by focusing on security and reiterating policy priorities. Greater emphasis on national security comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The biggest applause came when Xi restated opposition to Taiwan independence.

*USOil – holds support at $85.
*Gold – $1650.
*BTC – down for the day to $19214.

Today US Monthly Budget, BOC Outlook Survey. All eyes remain on UK though and the speech of Chancellor Hunt.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (+0.23%) rallied at EU open to 6907 but pulled back asap. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line hold below 0, RSI 46 & falling, H1 ATR 19.84, Daily ATR 142.87.

[img]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022-10-17_10-22-26.jpg/img]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th October 2022.

Market Update – October 14 – Wild, Wild Swings following US CPI, Risks in London Rise.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Spiked to 113.80 following hot reading for CORE CPI and then reversed sharply into 112.20 as Stocks staged a record reversal (from -3% to +over 2%) on short covering, technical floors being tested and ? perhaps assumptions that the top is finally in for inflation (Headline fell for 3rd consecutive month). Yields also whipsawed, with at one point, all major maturities above 4%. (US 10yr closed 3.902% & the 2/10 year rate inversion {a sign of recession} sits at 51bp). 75 bp fro Nov 2 fully priced in, and a 71% chance of a further 75bp in December. (This will take hikes since March to 450 bp).
*The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as Chancellor Kwarteng returns from the IMF meetings a day early (last person to do that was the Greek Fin. Min. in 2011 and many are predicting a similar outcome both politically and economically). The BOE’s Bond-Buying programme ends today, uncertainty swirls as tax U-turns become priced in. Sterling rallied and then rallied again, but Gilts remain fragile. Asian markets follow Wall Street higher (Nikkei +3.25% Hang Seng +2.64%) & European FUTS also higher.
*EUR – rotated through 0.9700, down to 0.9632 before rallying to 0.9800.
*JPY – rallied to new 32-year (1990) highs at 147.67 and with no signs of BOJ action! Suzuki and Kishida remain committed to accommodative policy. Trades at 147.35 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from .1.1075 to over 1.1300 to 1.1375. Immense pressure on PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts as successors are rumoured and the Tories are 30% behind in opinion polls.
*Stocks – Wall Street dove on the data given the jump in rates and as the market priced in greater risk for a hard landing. The NASDAQ plunged over -3.0%, with the S&P500 over -2.25% lower, and the Dow down almost -1.90% before turning around to end with solid gains. The Dow rallied to close with a 2.83% gain, a 1400 point round-trip, while the S&P 500 was up over 3% before ending with a 2.60% gain. US500 3577. BLK (assets tumbled but earnings beat)+6.58%, BAC +6.13%, NFLX +5.27%, APPL +3.36%. US500 FUTS trades at 3706 now.

*USOil – declined again on the CPI data & global recession worries into $85.51, before reversing sharply to $89.50 as USD weakened and risk aversion dipped.
*Gold – plunged to $1642 before recovering to trade at $1668 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – plummeted to $17.9K yesterday, trades at $19.8k now.

Today US Retail Sales, US University of Michigan Prelim Survey, Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, Fed’s George, Cook & Waller. Earnings from Wall Street banks JPM, Citi, MS Wells Fargo.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%) rallied from sub 81.20 lows yesterday to 83.75 highs today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 3.201.

Date : 13th October 2022.

Market Update – October 13 – FOMC Minutes Remain Hawkish – CPI Today.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Held 113.00 yesterday and again tested 113.44. Yields cooled from recent highs. (US 10yr at 3.902%). US PPI was hotter than expected (0.4% vs 0.2% & -0.1% prior). FOMC Mins. less Hawkish than many anticipated but far from indicating a pivot anytime soon. “Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices.” and “emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.”
*The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat and the BOE’s Bond-Buying, beyond Friday is still being questioned despite BOE denials. Sterling recovered yesterday but Gilts remain very fragile. US Stocks closed flat, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.13%) & European FUTS also flat.
*EUR – rotates through 0.9700, up from 0.9670 lows but unable to hold over 0.9720.
*JPY – rallied through 146.00 to new 24-year highs yesterday within a few pips of 147.00. 146.85 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from a new 11-day low at 1.0923 over 1.1000 to 1.1075. Immense pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts or face a major rebellion.
*Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Wednesday and closed down US500 -033%, -11.81 at 3577. MRNA +8.28%, PEPSI +4.18%, VLO +5.02%. US500 FUTS trades at 3586 now.

*USOil – declined again on global recession worries into $86.25, back to $87.15 now.
*Gold – remained range bound between $1665 support zone and $1675. Trades at $1668 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.

Today German HICP confirmed at record 10.9% US CPI, US DoE, IEA OMR, Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & BOE’s Mann.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.30%) rallied from sub 160.00 lows yesterday to 163.25 highs today, before declining into 162.50. MAs declining now, MACD histogram & signal line positive but starting to decline, RSI 54.40 & declining, H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 3.201.

Date : 12th October 2022.

Market Update – October 12 – London still the centre of the storm.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Dipped to 112.50 yesterday before reversing to 113.40, & 113.00 now. The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as BOE’s Bailey reiterated that the BOE “will be out of the market by the end of the week”. However FT report this morning that the BOE signalled privately to bankers it may extend Bond-Buying, after the weekend. Sterling pressured and Gilts remain fragile. US Stocks (NASDAQ -1.10%) closed down again, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.04%) & European FUTS lower. Biden claims there will be no US recession, doubts Putin will use the nuclear option and that there needs to be a re-evaluation of Saudi relationship.
*EUR – trades over 0.9700 at 0.9725 from 0.9670 lows and 0.9770 highs yesterday.
*JPY – rallied through 146.00 today beyond “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22. Traded to 146.38 today.
*GBP – Sterling rallied and then reversed on Bailey comments to 1.0923 a new 10-day low, but retook 1.1000 following rally on FT article. Pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning, more possible political U-turns.
*Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Tuesday and closed down US500 -0.65%, -27.7 and breaking 3600 at 3588. UBER -10.42%, LYFT -12.02%, AMGN +5.72%. US FUTS trades at 3628 now.

*declined into $88.40, back to $89.65 & capped at $90.00. Polish pipeline operator PERN says leak detected in Druzba oil pipeline.
*Gold – recovered from $1661-$1665 support zone to $1675 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.

Today UK GDP (missed -0.3% vs. 0.1%) EZ IP, US PPI Final Demand, FOMC Minutes, G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting, Astana Summit, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, Pill & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kashkari, Barr & Bowman.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) rallied from 80.70 lows yesterday to 82.00 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 64.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.236, Daily ATR 1.397.

Date : 11th October 2022.

Market Update – October 11 – Risk Off – Gilts lead Yields & USD Higher, Stocks, Gold & Oil Sink.

USDIndex – Rallied again (113.40) as US moves to curb US chip technology to China hit Chinese hi-tech companies. UK GILTS lead US Yields higher. BOE – Widening the scope of its daily Gilt buying operations from 11-14 October. Cable tests 1.1000. Stocks remain on the back foot (-1%). Asian markets hit by US Chip move (TSMC -8.33% & $240b wiped off wider market value) & European FUTS lower. PUTIN reacts to bridge attack with attacks on 13 Ukraine cities further undermining confidence. RISK OFF Tuesday.
EUR – trades as low as 0.9670, today under pressure from safe haven bid for USD.
JPY – rallied as high as 145.85 today and the “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22.
GBP – Sterling sank again too as UK Gilts rallied, Cable back to 1.0996 with the pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning.
Stocks – US stocks, were heavy again on Monday and closed down -1.04% to -0.32%. US500 -27.7 at 3612. AMD -1.08%, Ford -6.89%, NVDA -3.36%. US FUTS tested the key 3600 level on Monday and trades at 3613 now.

USOil – declined into $90.00 from $93.00 highs as USD accrued and sentiment waned.
Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weighed, October lows of $1661 have been tested today.
BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank under $19k to trade at $18.9k.
Today – UK JOBS beat expectations, US IBD/TIPP, Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Harker & Mester, BOE’s Bailey & Cunliffe, SNB’s Jordan, RBA’s Ellis, Astana Summit

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.54%) Continued to decline as risk off took hold. Down to test 0.6250 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 36.52 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00149, Daily ATR 0.01109.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th October 2022.

Market Update – October 10 – Dollar Remains Bid, Stocks Weighed.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Rallied again following strong NFP data (263k vs 250k & Unemployment falling to 3.5% from 3.7%) on Friday and expectations of no FED pivot any time soon and unified central bank action. Trades at 112.80. Yields are firmer and stocks on the back foot. US CPI key this week. Putin reaction to Bridge attack potentially Nuclear, Xi Ping looks to cement more power for another 10 years and NK have simulated attacks on SK – all under-mining sentiment. US moves to curb US chip technology to China hits Chinese hi-tech companies. Asian (thin markets due to holidays and weak Chinese Service PMI data 49.3 vs 55.0) & European stocks are lower following the very weak close (NASDAQ -3.8% ) on Wall St.
*EUR – closed Friday at 0.9730, and trades at 0.9720 now.
*JPY – rallied Friday and again today spiked to 145.60 and holds over the key 145.00 now. Signs of more BOJ intervention.
*GBP – sterling sank again too, Cable back to 1.1075 with the pressure on new PM Truss showing no signs of waning.
*Stocks – US stocks, were extremely heavy on Friday and closed down –2.11% to -3.8%. US500 -105.00 at 3639. AMD -13.87%, TSLA -6.32%, NVDA -8.03%. US FUTS at 3635.

*USOil rallied again to $93.00 and trades at $92.20 now.
*Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weigh, from $1710 on Friday ahead of NFP to $1685 now.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank from 20k pivot on Friday to trade at 19.3k now.

Today EZ Sentix Index, Speeches from Fed’s Evans & Brainard, ECB’s Lane, US Columbus Day (Treasury markets closed).

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.64%) Continued to rally from Friday’s low at 1.7350 to test 1.7500 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00347, Daily ATR 0.03100.

Date : 7th October 2022.

Market Update – October 7 – NFP Day – USD Remains on the Front Foot.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Rallied again yesterday and trades over 112.00 (up 1.85% in 2-days) currently. The chorus of Fedspeak (Cook, Evans, Kashkari, Waller & Mester) all pushed the Hawkish tone. BOC’s Macklem also very Hawkish too. Weekly Claims rose to 219k from 190K but remain historically low. Fed Funds Futures now have an 85.5% chance of 75bp rate hike at Nov. 2 FOMC meeting. Stocks closed -1%, Yields rallied (10-yr 3.83% from 3.55% earlier in the week). Oil rallied again to $89.00, Gold slipped but holds $1700 and BTC is under $20K again. Japan published more mixed data, (Earnings and Leading Indicators up, Household Spending down). German Import Prices rose significantly, Retail Sales & Ind. Production missed. Asian & European stocks are lower following a weak Wall St. Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat biggest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis and that the US is reviewing ‘response options’ on Saudi relations after OPEC+.
*EUR – A brief break of 0.9900, reversed all the way to 0.9786 now. ECB remains pressured to take more decisive action as Energy crisis swirls and fractures with EU persist, despite the “Prague” accord, with Putin increasingly cornered.
*JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 144.50 to once again test the key 145.00 now. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September, as the BOJ tried to defend the Yen.
*GBP Sterling sank another 240+ pips yesterday and is under pressure along with new PM Truss. From over 1.1350 to 1.1110 lows yesterday, Cable trades at 1.1340 now.
Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day and close down (-1.01%), US500 -38.00 at 3744. TWTR -3.72%, TSLA -1.11% (Musk lawsuit dropped & deal to close 28/10, also said Pepsi will get first semi trucks in December). LEVI -3.92% (ahead of weak Earnings; -6.34% after hours). US FUTS at 3740.

*USOil rallied again to $89.00 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts this week, provoking major rebuke from the US.
*Gold – declined from another test of $1725 yesterday before again moving back to $1710.
*BTC – dipped below the key $20k again today having tested $20.2k yesterday. Trades at 19.8k now.

Today US & Canadian Jobs reports, BOE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, & Bostic.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.25%) Continued to decline from 6-day high at 165.500 on Wednesday to test 161.00 yesterday and trades at 161.35 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling RSI 35.28 & falling, H1 ATR 0.359, Daily ATR 3.498.

Date : 6th October 2022.

Market Update – October 6 – USD & Stocks Flat, Oil Rallies.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Rallied from a test of 110.00 peaking at 111.50 following weak Services PMI data in UK & Europe, and a beat for US data; ADP (208k vs 200k) and ISM Services PMI (56.7 vs 56). Closed lower and trades under 111.00 now at 110.83. Fed’s Mary Daly says the Fed is resolute in raising rates to curb inflation and that market anticipation of interest-rate cuts next year is misplaced. Stocks closed flat, yields dipped again and Oil rallied following OPEC+ announcement. AUD Trade slipped and German Factory Orders tanked (-2.4% vs. -0.8%). Asian & European stocks are mixed following the stall on Wall St.
*EUR – A brief test of Parity at 1.0000, reversed all the way to 0.9833 before USD recovered and the pair trades at 0.9915 now.
*JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 143.60 and trades at 144.50 now.
*GBP Sterling remains volatile with the new PM under pressure. 260+ pip range yesterday, from 1.1495 to 1.1226. Cable trades at 1.1325 now.
*Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day but closed flat (-0.2%), US500 -7.65 at 3783. TWTR -1.35%, TSLA -3.46% XOM +4.04%.

*USOil rallied again to $88.40 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts, provoking major rebuke from the US.
*Gold – declined from initial test of $1725 yesterday before testing $1700 support and now back to $1725 again.
*BTC – dipped below the key $20k yesterday ,but now back to $20.2k.

Today EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester and BOC’s Macklem.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.84%) Rallied from yesterday’s low at 0.5660 to 0.5800 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00181, Daily ATR 0.01096.