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121  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / The Mystery in Patoshi Timestamps (that touched me to the depths of my soul). on: March 03, 2021, 03:20:44 PM
Summary

Patoshi is the name I gave to the prominent miner that in 2009-2010 mined about 1.1M bitcoins, and that some people associate with Satoshi Nakamoto. Last time I wrote about Patoshi was in April, 2019. At that time, I posted in order to clarify what we know, technically, about how Patoshi mined. Impossible was for me to foresee that one of the early coinbase being spent recently would cause such an impact in the crazy and uninformed market and the Patoshi pattern would be on the news. Nor I could foresee that a anonymous person would be signing 145 of the early coinbase keys to show a US court how Faketoshi committed fraud, and again everyone would go to check if those coinbases belonged to the Patoshi set.

These events triggered an impressive number of tweets, posts and videos about Satoshi. A new wave of Satoshi hunters appeared. But how many people actually pay attention to the technical details? Back in April I posted the following table showing the events where the timestamps of two consecutive blocks were reversed, and by how much time, in average, during the first years of Bitcoin mining:

Inversion of timestamps in consecutive blocks


You can see that the average timestamps deltas (when timestamps are inverted) largely differ between Patoshi and non-Patoshi blocks. I realized in 2019 this was far from normal, but I waited for somebody else to notice the oddity. In 2014, I published about the strange timestamp gaps. Well, it seems that few people reads my post until the end 🙂 Only one person (that preferred to remain anonymous) also detected the anomaly in Patoshi’s timestamps. Now enough time has passed, and still I don’t have a good explanation for the strange way Patoshi timestamped his blocks. Therefore in this post I will expand that research so that more people can think on this. I’ll also summarize possible (some maybe surprising) explanations. Let’s begin with an histogram of how timestamps differences (or “deltas”) are distributed between consecutive blocks in the first 50K blocks, when none of the blocks belong to the Patoshi pattern. In the X-axis we show buckets of 10 seconds each, so the labels on the X-axis show time in seconds divided by 10. In the Y-axis, we show the number of events counted for that slot.

Timestamp deltas between Non-Patoshi blocks in the first 50K blocks


Curved traced by the bar graph looks like an exponential distribution, as it should. There curve may not be a perfect exponential, as distributed timestamps are not fetched from an unique global clock, and also timestamps in nodes are not updated in a continued basis during mining, but only every few seconds. Nevertheless the graph looks as one would expect, and the average timestamp delta is 654 seconds.

It seems that most block timestamps generally start 312 (about 5 minutes) s seconds after the previous timestamp. Also it appears as if Patoshi refused to mine many blocks after 25 minutes (1500 seconds). This strange pattern is a new way to distinguish the Patoshi pattern from all other coinbase sets. We had three methods already (steep fast extranonce increment, reduced nonce LSB range, no timestamp reversals), and now we add a fourth (and in a next post I will show a fifth!). So why timestamp deltas are oddly distributed is a new unsolved mystery for our large collection. In my opinion, the existence of so many distinguishers is an indicator that Patoshi wanted his/her blocks to be identified.

If you look carefully at the timestamp delta distribution, there are a high number of timestamp deltas before 312 seconds that make for me even more difficult to explain the steep cliff shape. Luckily this one puzzle we can unravel with some information we already know. The reason of this “noise” is a segment in the Patoshi pattern that I named “Double Helix”, because it looks graphically as DNA. Here is a graph of this segment:

The double-helix interval in Patoshi pattern (blocks 1400-1916)


You can explore this pattern in SatoshiBlocks website. The double-helix pattern was probably caused by two instances of the Patoshi software/hardware running in parallel. We don’t know if this was a mistake made by Patoshi or it was intended for testing an improved mining setup. But the timestamps between blocks of the two Patoshi lines of the double-helix do not show the same delta distribution, as if internally, maybe due to physical proximity, there was no delay between blocks. Still it’s possible that Patoshi just turned off his mining equipment for about 5 minutes after mining a block. Is that plausible? How can we explain the differences in timestamp deltas?

  • Patoshi turned off his mining equipment for about 5 minutes after mining a block. Maybe this was required in order to broadcast the block. Or maybe he was doing it to let other miners mine following blocks. The fact that Patoshi reduced his hashrate in several steps during the first year indicates that he may well be able to do it also at the block granularity. It’s even possible that the increased his hashrate if a block was delayed longer than 12 minutes, which could explain the strange timestamp delta distribution.
  • Patoshi software avoided two blocks having the same timestamp. Therefore if a block was mined locally and immediately the mining of a following block began, then the following block timestamp would be artificially incremented a random number not less than 300 seconds.

The artificial addition time to the timestamp seems to be a better overall explanation, because it could also explain why after 25 minutes it seems that Patoshi reduces the number of mined blocks. Because we’re living difficult times, and since science without joy is too boring, I give you some far-fetched and fun explanations of the timestamp delta phenomenon:

  • Patoshi was mining from outer space, somewhere in our solar system. It took approximately 150 seconds for the radio signals to travel to his spaceship. To compensate for the delay, and avoid being detected, he/she/it used a real-time clock being 300 seconds ahead of time in earth. His timestamps were faked but that was not noticed on earth. That worked well when mining on top of a block he didn’t create. However, Patoshi didn’t realize that the round-trip time of transmission of his own blocks to and from earth would generate a gap in the timestamps, if not specifically compensated. That’s why we see the gap only between his own blocks.
  • Although timestamp LSB (nor the byte with mask 0xff00) in Patoshi blocks have uniform distributions, somehow grinding the timestamp was used to obtain blocks that were more favorable to find solutions for.
Quote
Satoshi probably was the network early on, with hobbyists coming and going. As a consistent amount of hash started to build, I would probably start to phase out.
A source bitslog: https://bitslog.com/2020/06/22/a-new-mystery-in-patoshi-timestamps/
122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2021, 10:19:31 AM
+1 WOsMerit what does this mean?
123  Economy / Reputation / Re: Ratimov plagiarizer and now trust abuser on: March 02, 2021, 10:04:15 AM
It is foolish to compare me to this profile, but if you listed 10 people, I could say if I am on this list or not.

ScumBuster, Please refrain from posting in my topic.

You create FUD, and against the background of your messages people can perceive my arguments with disdain.

marcel
124  Other / Meta / Re: Merit Source - Plagiarist on: March 01, 2021, 01:50:00 PM
ScumBuster, Please refrain from posting in my topic.

You create FUD, and against the background of your messages people can perceive my arguments with disdain.
125  Economy / Reputation / Re: Reference topic: Why are these members excluded on trust lists? on: March 01, 2021, 01:42:56 PM
1. Hello LoyceV, Can I speak in this thread if the post will not include any FUD, but only arguments?
2. Сan you tell me how to add a feedback clipping? I can't add a screenshot so I'm looking for another option to post an example feedback.
126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 11:21:08 AM
When, then, do you think an 80% correction will occur?

After the top!

If it occurs, at all.

No guarantee.
I expected someone to share the analysis and not just words.
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:57:13 AM
It's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n' roll.
When, then, do you think an 80% correction will occur?
128  Other / Meta / Re: Merit Source - Plagiarist on: March 01, 2021, 10:51:49 AM
Are you saying that lovesmayfamilis is now exposing what he was banned for earlier? Link please
129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:47:58 AM
I hear people say this all the time. Then when it crashes down to that level I tell them to buy and then they say "It's crashed I'm not putting my money in that!?!?" and then when it rockets up again they will claim to wait for it to go down again.

Excuses won't make you rich...
I would never say that, I just didn't have enough dollars when bitcoin was at the bottom.
130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:00:22 AM
My calculations show that the correction from 58 400 to 43 000 is 26.3%. This doesn't even qualify for a significant 30%+ correction! And the claim that this is the end of the bull cycle is too premature and quite bearish. The support down to 40K looks pretty solid compared to the sell pressure, if we look at the depth charts of the main exchanges (even Bitstamp). So most probably we are going sideways for some time before resuming the bull run. My bullish expectations are 150-168K at the end of June and 333K-400K at the end of the year. The worst I can imagine for this year is half of the latter prices, i.e. 84K in June and 168K at the end of the year. However, we are on the track for the first scenario, and these 2 little corrections only improve the chances for that. #provenbymathandscience
I hope you are wrong dude, I pray to god that bitcoin goes back to 10 thousand and can buy more.
131  Economy / Reputation / Re: Who controls Bestchange's account? on: February 28, 2021, 11:47:48 AM
A long time ago I had a chat with the account Best_Change and my impression was that it is an official account of https://www.bestchange.com/ however I never asked to prove further. It never needed. The communication already built a trust at that time and it's still the same for me.

However, you have a good point.

If this is their official account and user Best_Change is the official from bestchange.com then I would suggest Best_Change to link up a bitcoin address from bestchange.com known address to make it official in public. And if this is someone who is just a manager to manage the campaign then of course he has nothing to do with bestchange.com officials. Besides, from the username it is assumable the Best_Change user is the official representative of bestchange.com.
You are right, if BestChange signed the message using the Bitcoin address indicated on their website, I would be calm.

Marcel
132  Other / Meta / Re: Merit Source - Plagiarist on: February 28, 2021, 11:05:06 AM
Quoting for historical reference.

Quote from: LoyceV
I'll respond here because my name was mentioned. First: this isn't the first topic about Ratimov, and I think I've said everything there is to say about it already. I think Ratimov can/should improve on his references, but ultimately it's not up to me. If the forum doesn't ban him for it, he seems to have found a loophole to easily make long posts that many people appreciate.
That being said, after several topics calling him out for plagiarism his large Merit earnings have dropped significantly:
Quote
Merit received by Ratimov (Trust list) from January 24, 2018 until December 18, 2020 (source)

Image loading from loyce.club...
I also don't think Ratimov deserves negative feedback for this, as it doesn't mean he can't be trusted for trading.

I do think he's setting a bad example though, and I think plagiarism rules could be improved. So if anything, you may want to focus your energy on adjusting the rules in a separate topic (in Meta). You could use Ratimov as an example for your arguments, but don't make it about him.

Does DarkStar know he is paying for plagiarism
See:
Quote
Merit sent by DarkStar_ (Trust list) from January 24, 2018 until December 18, 2020 (source)
  1978. Tue Dec  8 20:49:15 2020: 5 (7201) to airfinex (Trust list) (history) for Merit Source - Plagiarist

I also don't like some of Ratimov's Sent feedback. It's retaliatory and goes against what I consider correct use of the Trust system. I get that several people created an alt account to call him out on this, and this is actually encouraged by theymos:
If you're hesitant to say something controversial because you don't want it to be associated with your name, please create an alt account and say it.
I always consider Trust inclusions and exclusions a bit of a "gliding scale": I usually don't (dis)agree with all ratings, but if the number gets too high, I might change my Trust list. I think I'm not alone in this, and Ratimov's DT-strength is already starting to decline a bit.
133  Other / Meta / Re: Save your nice merit records here - LAST UPDATE: 01/02/2021 on: February 04, 2021, 12:28:24 PM
Please quote to see the image! Thanks!

134  Other / Meta / Re: DefaultTrust changes on: February 02, 2021, 10:37:35 PM
We have a new DT1 MoxnatyShmel, in the Russian locale, which left this tag:
Some users may not update their trust list for years.  The review you are linking to is not backed up by a link, and the tag should be changed to neutral. The first thing you need to do is write to him in a PM and then here, remember to tell him to revise his trust list.

Perhaps someone will delve into the proofs that you provided, but you did not mention that you have a red tag from LVLF and MoxnatyShmel. Since they at DT, everyone sees these feedback, and since LVLF and MoxnatyShmel now have a federated model against you, therefore it worries you so much. You Too, left LVLF an unjustified red tag in the form of retribution for his red tag, and it seems that all your reviews come down to insults.
135  Economy / Reputation / Who controls Bestchange's account? on: January 04, 2021, 12:17:21 PM
Is the Best_Change account actually linked directly to the https://www.bestchange.com/ site? It seems to me that one of the campaign managers is hiding behind a screen and not a support service.

  • And this thought prompted me to the next thought, which can be formulated as "Can I really trust this account as the Bestchange support account?"
  • Despite the fact that the account has a lot of positive feedbacks, I see that most of them have nothing to do with assessing the quality of the Bestchange service.


Solution options
If this is a corporate BestChange account, then he must clear his trust list, leaving it by default. This account will soon become DT1 and in the event of any dispute, this account will be able to use a preventive response.

If this is not a corporate account, but an account created only in order to manage the signature campaign (manager's account) then I would like to know who is hiding behind the control screen. I want to know who people really trust and I will hope that this person added people to his list of trust not only because they participated in the signature campaign.

As DT was organized previously, one or both sides of a dispute was usually unable to effectively retaliate to a rating, at least via the trust system itself. Now your ability to effectively retaliate will tend to increase as you become more established in the community, which should discourage abuse generally.
136  Other / Meta / Re: Merit Source - Plagiarist (#2627711 “Ratimov”) on: December 12, 2020, 04:37:04 PM
Lauda бы нaзвaлa тeбя xитpoй.  I am not so gentle: I will call you xитpoвыeбaннoй.



This is obviously deserve a merit. Of course, if it would be from native speaking russian user i would consider it as bad taste. But such jokes is beyond of understanding of any westerner (even for people who understand russian language, like suchmoon .nullius, please, this is just example of a user who can speak on russian, don't start any essay about suchmoon pls. thx in advance).

And yeah, i think this topic should be closed, because it turned to be arena with a lot of angry noobs. Mods has said their words.

And yeah, your try to accuse someone in hypocrisy will not work. Russians (in a a counterweight to ukrainians and belarusians) are well known for their "двoeмыcлиe". So it's too natural for them for example to hunt criminals and in the same time to make some crimes (russian police). Or to be banned for plagiarism and to catch plagiarists and to show zero tolerance to already banned people.

It doesn't matter wrong Ratimov or you, Ratimov can't understand your accuses.



P.S: I will be glad to get answer (besides i doubt that the answer is needed here) not longer than my original post )
lovesmayfamilis will not answer in this conversation, since she has nothing to say in excuse.
137  Other / Meta / Re: [Updated December 5 LoyceV's Trust list viewer - Create your own Trust list! on: December 12, 2020, 04:48:04 AM
Please tell me what to do or in what topic I should write if I published a report on Ratimov and he left me an allegedly neutral negative review.

There is nothing to do. Neutral rating can be added for any reason. It doesn't harm you. If you think it's incorrect/unfair... well, that reflects poorly on Ratimov then.

But usually people do not check if the feedback is true, and if no one leaves him "Neutral feedback" then Ratimov will think that He got away with everything and will continue to leave false feedback. I'm sure you agree with me, besides Ratimov didn't even bother to edit the article.

The trust list has been created!

Code:
~Ratimov
DarkStar_
hugeblack
~Xal0lex
~Quickseller
~Bitcoin_Arena
The Pharmacist
suchmoon
~FontSeli
ScumBuster
SquirrelJulietGarden
RapTarX
Yogee
Rikafip
TheBeardedBaby
friends1980
nullius
Harlot
~jademaxsuy
nutildah
~witcher_sense
mdayonliner
ETFbitcoin
tranthidung
DdmrDdmr
NotATether
20kevin20
johhnyUA
~lovesmayfamilis
138  Other / Meta / Re: Updated 2020-12-05 LoyceV's Trust list viewer - Create your own Trust list! on: December 12, 2020, 04:29:32 AM
Make that two neutral trust feed-backs on your trust feedback wall...

Clearly you've bought a throw away UID (that posted just once back in the day) to go on the war path against a few users, so it's little wonder you've got the attention you sought.

Are you serious? You are the "captain obvious", Since when is posting evidence of plagiarism considered shitpost and trolling?

But judging by the fact that Ratimov is in your circle of trust, you approve of his actions, including: Feedback attacks against users, mutual exclusion and systematic plagiarism

Quote
I don't have a problem with alt accounts as long as they're not used for evading bans. If you're hesitant to say something controversial because you don't want it to be associated with your name, please create an alt account and say it.

I am not posting this under my own username, otherwise this user and his friends will leave me a one more red tag.
139  Other / Meta / Re: [Updated December 5 LoyceV's Trust list viewer - Create your own Trust list! on: December 11, 2020, 08:23:23 PM
Please tell me what to do or in what topic I should write if I published a report on Ratimov and he left me an allegedly neutral negative review.
140  Other / Meta / Re: Merit Source - Plagiarist on: December 10, 2020, 04:24:28 PM
Why is this topic going on for several days and no one can remember a good rule that also holds in this forum?

23. When deciding if a user has broken the rules, the staff have the right to follow their interpretation of the rules.[e]

Ratimov, you have passed to the next step. Having appeared in the Russian locale, you also fought for your reputation. I think it only makes you stronger. Some people cannot calm down until they ruin the lives of others. They spend time searching to avenge their mistakes. The OP wrote that you once left him a red tag. Yes, people are vindictive, and more often than not they are not inclined to blame themselves for their mistakes.
A lot of advice has been said, and as always, "initiative is punishable", you have concluded, and I think that everything will soon settle down.
Well, I again urge everyone to calm down and remember the good rule number 23.

lovesmayfamilis, I am amazed at what a two-faced whore you are. In the exact same situation, you say something completely different, I can only explain this by the fact that bitcoinst apparently didn't fuck you to protect him.

Since you are so fond of quoting the rules, I will also quote something.


User bitcoinst from Russian local section. There are rules written in black and white that say:

Quote
Messages must be original. "Stuffing" the number of messages made by the copy-paste principle from another resource is unacceptable. Such messages fall under the first paragraph of the rules.
Unfortunately, in the English section, I did not find amendments to such rules.
This is a very common occurrence, which clearly indicates the cunning of those who write such posts. The Internet is open, anyone can find any information on the web, but this should not be the rule for creating messages in subscription companies.

We all understand the subtext with which such messages are created. If this is taken for messages of low quality, in this case, informing the moderators will be absolutely correct.
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