Easier said than done.  Unless you have a lot of confidence in your various other investments (so I guess I am speaking towards diversification.. but not into shitcoins), it can be quite difficult to see your investment go up 50x or more, and sure I am not even claiming my own to currently be up more than 27x, since I like to use $1k as my average cost per BTC... .. and so you can imagine  that at some point there's gotta be some shaving off, and figuring out how to deal with the volatility without screwing things up.. ....

So let's say for example, in 2003-2013, you had an annual income of that increased from $10k per year and by 2013, it had gotten to $30k per year, and so through those years you had been investing around 10% of your income into various kinds of investments, and so by the time 10 years passed, your investment portfolio had gotten to about $40k.. which would be around $20k invested and the other $20k came from price appreciating, so you got around a doubling of the amount that you put into it over those 10 years. 

Let's say around 2013, you decided to invest into bitcoin, and since you had already built a decent traditional investment portfolio that was 130% your annual income, you thought that you were in a position to be more aggressive to build up your BTC portfolio, so you spent around 3-4 years building up your BTC portfolio, and so maybe by the end of 2016, you made several mistakes yet you still had been able to accumulate 20 BTC  for around $10k, so that would be $500 each, and also maybe it would have been around 20% of your total investment portfolio, with the assumption that maybe your investment portfolio might have still grown from $40k to $50k..

So maybe at that point you start to believe that you had been sufficiently aggressive to accumulate some BTC in light of your overall situation.. so at that point, you start to moderate your BTC investment, so that you are equally distributing your value between your traditional investment portfolio and BTC.. so out of your 10% investment allowance you are further dividing that into various categories so that you have traditional investments and BTC in an attempt to maintain something like a 10%-20% allocation to bitcoin  and 80% to 90% goes to your other traditional investment assets.

At that point in late 2016, we should be able to appreciate what ended up happening with bitcoin.. Bitcoin had already been starting to go up quite a bit between early 2016 to late 2016 from $300-ish to $800-ish, but if we are presuming that you made some mistakes with your BTC, so your average cost of BTC is still $500 per BTC, but by the time 2017 plays out, you still were seeing around 40x price appreciation on your bitcoin and even with the correction back down to $3k in 2018, you were still up 6-8x at the lowest points of the BTC price, but there still could have been times that you could have been scared out of your continuing to hold BTC.. and maybe even questioning if you should buy more or not or even questioning if you should sell some.. but still right now with our current $27k-ish prices, you would be around 54x in profits.

I am not even saying that any of it is easy because even if we assume that your regular investment portfolio had doubled again from $50k to $100k, your BTC allocation still would end up taking up a disproportionate amount of your total investment.. which would be around $540k or more if you had maybe continued to accumulate BTC, but if you had not chosen to accumulate more BTC you still would have had ended up flippening your other investments with bitcoin going from being around 1/5 the size of your overall portfolio, and then it becomes around 5x of your total holdings.. depending upon how you had chosen to manage all lf that..and surely if your regular job ends sup still being around $30k or maybe even $40k per year, you might start to consider that you are starting to get quite close to fuck you status, and maybe even you might have been tempted into selling some of your BTC when they were higher value because you had though that for sure at some point you had gotten passed entry level fuck you status, which really should be considered to be around 20x to 30x of your annual income (needs) so if you had been living on $40k, then $800k to $1.2 million would be getting you into entry-level fuck you status.. which largely just means that you should be able to quit your job and live off of the proceeds (or the passive income of your investment portfolio).

There are a lot of ways to screw up however, you are balancing the situation and also how you are valuing the various assets that you hold. and part of the reason that I prefer to value my BTC holdings based on bottom values (such as the 200-week moving average) rather than top values has to do with some of the concerns about either cashing out too early and not knowing where to put your value so it holds value or just not being able to account for the volatility of BTC going from $69k down to $15,479 and then coming back up to our current price of $27k-ish.


Yes.. and of course, our previous ATH is likely in a pass through range rather than any kind of an end-goal.. .. and even if you might have some end goal in mind of $100k or $200k or $500k or some other number, you still have to figure out how are you going to manage your BTC holdings in such a way that you are NOT losing too many BTC by trying to get out and then back in and then maybe even ending up not playing those kinds of strategies very well.

Roach?  

Is THAT uie-pooie?


Missed you so much!!!!!


#Nohomo.

How's your gold doing? #forreals

Of course debasing of the dollar is an ongoing factor that could end up misleading our assessment of both relative value and even the creation of meaningful (or real dollar) price performance targets

It is more difficult to account for these matters in shorter-time frames and it could become confusing to figure out whether we are in profits or how much we are in profits relative to other places in which we could have put our monetary value (as contrasted to where to put our time and our energies too.. which may be more realistic measurements).  

We know that in the longer term we will likely be ahead, even accounting for dollar debasement, yet it still might not be easy to measure in the shorter term, but in the longer term we might be able to figure out some of it in terms of goods and services or other quality of life matters.

In some sense I was attempting to describe some kind of a range in which some somewhat normal (or maybe even somewhat low income) members might choose to invest into bitcoin in such a ways that they might have been able to conclude that they have already established a budget, and surely there are consequences to their chosen level of investment into BTC, yet the extent to which they can even engage in BTC investing strategies that are even more aggressive than their chosen level might depend in part upon how much they figure out their own cashflow (and expenses) with considerable detail, so the more strongly they understand their own circumstances, the more likely that they are going to be able to cross into higher levels of aggressiveness in their BTC investment without ending up recking themselves or overly putting their BTC portfolios at risk.

Another angle towards ongoing BTC investing, including that bitcoin remains quit a great asymmetric upside bet, so even if someone ends up choosing an overly whimpy BTC investment approach, they still likely enjoy relatively decent odds of being able to prosper from their choice towards having had invested in bitcoin, stacking sats through the years and even HODLing during worrisome periods.



I am probably ONLY open to other ideas up to a point that real people are genuinely trying to work through opinions that they truly hold and/or that they are grappling with actual facts rather than making things up... so I try to be open within what I believe to be some kinds of attempts at reasonable and realistic parameters. 

I don't remember anything in particular in regards to June 9, 2023, even if I glance at BTC price charts and also if I glance at my posts from that day.


Without knowing too many of your details, it is difficult to know if there might be some ways that you might be able to adjust your particular approach... and at the same time, it likely is not a good idea to get into too many particular details.. even though sometimes we can talk about percentages or maybe present a hypothetical of someone who might have gotten started into bitcoin in mid-2016, but might have taken a certain approach and then made some adjustments along the way. .and then is considering further adjustments based on either changes in his/her particular situation or maybe even changes in views about bitcoin and/or how to approach bitcoin investing.

Let's say if someone had got into bitcoin in April 2016, and they had invested $10 per week, and based on about a $3,920 investment into BTC, by now, they could have accumulated around 1.2 BTC.  And, so maybe you are kicking yourself right now because whatever you did, did not result in that level of BTC appreciation, so I personally would suggest to get started doing that, and if you want to try to attempt to make up for your not having had been able to accumulate 1.2BTC by now based on such earlier investments, then maybe you might want to try to be more aggressive in the neighborhood of $100 per week rather than $10 per week, and surely you might still take a long time to get up to 1.2BTC or maybe you will never be able to accumulate 1.2 BTC, so in the end, you have to just figure out the level of aggressiveness that you feel sufficiently works for you and your circumstances without ending up putting yourself into a situation in which you will get reckt or even that you might get reckt because you ended up being too greedy.


because we are in a forum, which allows for members to discuss and to attempt to address a variety of angles, which might even include their sharing their own experiences and differing opinions.  As much as you like to believe, members do not necessarily agree or even understand the trade offs, even with some kind of a semingly simple proposition of buying the dip and HODLing.


Even you did not really answer the question very well. 

It could be said that the BTC price has been dipping since November 2022.. but this thread was started even before that (in April 2019) because there were dips even back then.. but April 2019 until June 2019 was actually a pretty significant period in bitcoin in which the BTC price largely went up exponentially at about 3.5x in such a short period from $4,200 to $13,880.  Quite amazing, and maybe buying the dip was NOT that great of an idea, since the BTC price ended up correcting back down to nearly it's starting point.. but then also seeming to be a kind of fluke in March 2020.. to correct all the way back down to $3,850 (quickly, but still it may well count).


Even though you attempted to summarize the concept of HODL, you also don't seem to understand the idea of HODL.  Sometimes HODL can apply to buying on the way down and then running out of money but the BTC price still keeps dipping.  HODL does not ONLY apply towards UPwards BTC price moves.


Exactly.  Each person has their practice in regards to their BTC accumulation and even their BTC maintenance and/or liquidation that may or may not end up changing with the passage of time, because forever is a long time to HODL that may or may not end up playing out as planned.. but I suppose if you hide your keys, even from yourself, then it is much easier to accomplish a "HODLing forever" plan.  It does not sound like a great plan, but you are free to make and execute whatever plan that you like.. including that you can choose to not plan, which some people engage in that kind of behavior too..


Your overall theme sounds good, but there is something wrong with your example.. because if someone bought 5 BTC for an average price of around $12k, that person would have spent around $60k for those 5 BTC, so there surely could be ways to sell some of the BTC and buy them back and to end up with more BTC.  So you are seeming to give away too much by assuming that they are able to sell at or near the top.. and if anyone ends up selling at or near the top, they end up having a lot of options to buy back lower if they did not end up spending it for consumption purposes and they kept that money in their investment portfolio.

At the same time, you are correct in saying that there should be no expectations to be able to buy the BTC back lower so maybe the amount that is sold would not end up being very much.. so maybe a total of 1 BTC gets sold at various points between $30k and $60k.. and so there has to be some desire to buy that BTC back at prices lower than purchase, but if someone ends up getting distracted into consumption or not really knowing when or how to get back into a buying and/or accumulating mindset, then that person might have ended up losing his/her BTC accumulation mindset which should not have had been entered into through the selling anyhow...especially if they are supposedly telling themselves that they are in BTC accumulation mode..

 and it likely could have been much better to just continued to keep accumulating another 1 to 3 more BTC in the last couple of years, even if the cost per BTC ended up being way higher so maybe by now the investment ends up being $120k with 7 BTC rather than with a higher average cost per BTC (of $17k per BTC rather than $12k per BTC), but still likely in a better position to have more 7 BTC rather than 5 BTC, especially if their goal was to continue to build their BTC size.. so in that sense you are correct that if your goal is to build your BTC portfolio holdings, then the better strategies are to continue to buy rather than selling and expecting to be able to buy lower, which just ends up likely screwing things up, even though on paper it seems like it could work to accumulate more by selling at higher prices and buying back lower.. but in practice.. it is way less certain than a more consistent and ongoing BTC buying approach.

Sure, there is more to come in terms of bitcoin's world changing likelihood.. but it seems to me that bitcoin has already changed the world, and there is just more to come .. more and more and more... .. .while at the same time, the cat is already out of the bag in terms of bitcoin already having had established a paradigm shift in regards to the way in which value is stored, secured and transmitted.... I doubt that the cat can be put back in the bag, or the genie back in the bottle or the toothpaste bag into the tube.


I don't mind hearing whatever you have to say, but you are not really saying anything important and/or meaningful.  

It seems that you are trying to shift the burden onto bitcoin advocates to show bitcoin as having had already taken over the world in some kind of a microcosm, and if bitcoin is not able to show such a thing, then bitcoin is not important and/or meaningful in terms of its advancement.

So, yeah, go ahead and believe your unrealistic standards in regards to what you believe is needed to be shown in order for bitcoin to either be successful or to be on the right path of ongoing success. .. and in the meantime, while you are ongoingly denying bitcoin's importance, it will continue to eat your lunch and the lunch of your bitcoin naysaying banker and governmental buddies.

The positive news is not going to hit you in the face, especially if you are failing and refusing to see it and you are largely just focusing on the various things that bitcoin has not done... or that you believe bitcoin has done or that you believe that there is not enough evidence of bitcoin's ongoing progress in order for you to be satisified.. so if some of us are telling you that you better make sure that you are invested into bitcoin, you like to say that is off topic and not answering your questions... well you better go somewhere else, if you believe that you need further information to satisfy your curiousities.


First of all.  Fuck shitcoins.  Who cares about cryptocurrencies? and try to stay focused on bitcoin if you are able to.  Bitcoin is the ONLY one that really matters, and the only one that creates any kind of threat to the fiat system as we know it.

Second, the dollar can be around for a long time, but little by little its lunch is continuing to be eaten by bitcoin, and so sure it could take a while for bitcoin to take its place.. and whether it does or not, bitcoin is the stronger of the two currencies and value will continue to flow into it, whether you want to recognize that current and ongoing dynamic or not.


You seem to be wanting to be shown a specific thing, and if you cannot see ongoing bitcoin adoption, then you are the one who seems to be blind (and perhaps even purposefully so).. and yeah, maybe you have to be able to look and to identify certain changes in way that bitcoin is getting into more and more of the discussions and also getting increasingly financialized.. which is truly only one of the seven network effects.. as I referred to earlier.

There are transactions going on with bitcoin and there are various ways that they can be shown on the blockchain and also through lightning network, so it cannot be easy to particularize how much transactions might be taking place in any particular area.. or country wide or city wide.. even though there is likely quite a bit of variance. .and I surely am not claiming high levels of bitcoin adoption, so far we likely ONLY have less than 1% world-wide adoption, and even those who have adopted bitcoin are likely low coiners rather than nocoiners like you.  .. but even by definition, the low coiners are probably going to realize at some point that they don't have enough bitcoin.. not that any of us even need a lot of bitcoin in order to be advantaged by bitcoin's asymmetric upside nature.

So, yeah it is on you in regards to  the extent to which you need to see certain kinds of evidence or to have certain kinds of questions that you have answered prior to gaining confidence that bitcoin is going to be something in which you would like to invest.

I doubt anyone is really going to hold your hand, especially if you are fighting the whole way and even seeming to purposefully ignore ongoing bitcoin growth and developments... and surely I am not going to spend time listing them out for you.


I probably cannot explain it to your satisfaction, but the essence of bitcoin's contribution to the space of money is that it improves incentives based on its not being controlled by anyone and having a fixed supply, so a lot of corruption comes from the creation of money that advantages some people over others but not in connection to their proof of work.. so bitcoin is more pure in the sense that no one can create it.. even though there surely are going to be people, governments and/or financial institutions trying to create the same kinds of corrupt fractional reserve systems on top of bitcoin, but one of the powers of bitcoin is that any of us should be able to claim our own coins, so if some people are entering into contracts that allow others to control their coins, then they may well not be getting any advantage by those systems, and potentially those kinds of systems could end up losing their own credibility if they engage in practices in which they do not have the BTC that they claim to have...or if they do not allow people to take possession of their coins. which people should realize that they are putting themselves into trouble if they are using systems that are not obligated to allow people to take possession of their coins.

That comes off as a bit bearish and/or conservative... which is actually right around a 3x price increase from the previous cycle top, and then the following cycle to be around a 5x price increase...

Even though I don't like to get too wrapped up in tops, but something is wrong with such ..

or maybe those are 4.5x tops and just using 2017 to 2021.. top to top as being 4.5x and then saying we are 4.5x from here on out.. top to top.

That would then get us to similar numbers $69k x 4.5 = $310k-ish.. and then 4.5x more for the next cycle would bring us to $1.4 million.. but since we might want to tone it down a bit, we are going to just say $1 million.

I still don't like it, even if it might end up playing out in such a conservative and/or whimpy way.

There is no reason to get overly excited and to exaggerate what it expected, but at the same time, we can still put those projections in the location of strange and weird... and maybe overly attempting to predict around "round numbers."..

King daddy does not do round numbers.. even though people frequently make those kinds of claims about it supposedly getting stuck at round numbers.. which is just bullshit in the whole scheme of things.. even if there might be short-periods of seemingly stuckedness..

TLDR: (this one's for you Hueristic)  I don't like it.

Edit: After I wrote my whole post, and actually looking at the chart more closely, I see that it seems that I am mostly just quibbling with @Paashaas's interpretation of the chart rather than what the chart actually shows.. but since I already got it in my head that "I don't like it," I am sticking with my story.


You truly are amazing, if you do say so ur lil selfie.


That sounds like a mining death spiral.

I think that it is getting close to the time that "we" should panic.

OMG.


That's what I was trying to say... but I just couldn't get it to come out of my lil mouthie.. (or is it mousie?).

The idea is not bad, and it combines the concepts of DCA and buying on dips, so it ends up being a kind  of hybrid DCA approach, and if someone is in their early stacking stages, they might not be benefitted by that kind of a level of DCA reduction.. but sure, each person has their own considerations in terms of how heavily they may end up choosing to stack their sats and also what they might consider reasons to transition into purposefully lessening their DCA stacking.

A thing that I like to think about is how close that any of us might be getting to our own definition of fuck you status (you can see my projection of a kind of default entry level fuck you status here) and with that we might be able to project how many coins we believe that we might need at certain points in time, so whether or not we think that we are able to reduce our DCA approach based on higher prices might be seen in light of how close we consider ourselves to be in terms of fuck you status, projections of fuck you status and/or considerations whether we might feel that we need to stack beyond our targets in the event that BTC prices might not play out as bullishly as we might have had anticipated.


Hopefully you do not end up selling too many BTC too soon, and a lot of BTC HODLers have learned to modify how much they plan to sell.. and sometimes they move down from their ideas of selling 100% to selling 50% and then sometimes they realize that maybe they should not sell any more than 20% to 40%.. so there can be some variation and even some decisions to cut back on the idea of selling - especially since many times the previous ATH is not really a place to sell.. it is known as a kind of deadman's zone in which the BTC price tends to pass through.. of course, no guarantees...and maybe that is why sometimes folks end up selling too much of their stash at previous ATHs but then the BTC price does not end  up revisiting those previous ATH prices when it drops back down.. your milage will vary for sure.


Part of the reason that your system likely worked out so well, @lienfaye, is because many times we have no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go, even if it is going up in exponential kinds of ways.. so there are plenty of times that it does not really pay off to be engaging in too many tactics to reduce your DCA in too dramatic ways..   The more BTC that you accumulate, the more at liberty you will start to feel that you are able to reduce some of your DCA and/or increase your DCA.. but it does not seem to be a very good beginner move.. even for someone who had already been accumulating bitcoin for 3-5 years, if they are far from getting even close to fuck you status, then there may be no real value to be reducing their DCA in any kinds of significant and/or meaningfuil ways merely because the BTC price went up.

Yes.. ethereum is different from the vast majority of other shitcoins because it is the mother shitcoin out of whose asshole many other shitcoins flow. (thank Saifedean Ammous for this expression)  Does not make ethereum very special in terms of not being a shitcoin, being worthy to invest into in the long term and/or not being vulnerable towards going to zero quickly.


You are already starting out bad in your description of what bitcoin is.  

bitcoin is not merely a leading coin.. it is the coin that set forth the standard, and the other various shitcoins are trying to emulate it or to proclaim that they are better, and maybe they are not really doing anything but figuring out a way to print their own coin to make founders and other early adopters rich in the style of various ponzi schemes.

So bitcoin is in another category. .to the extent that it cannot be replicated in ways that shitcoiners try to set forth as if it were actually possible.


I agree with this last part of your post.. even though from my perspective the set up in order to reach your conclusions was not that great.. but hey whatever, you do you... and I will do me and object from time to time.

I cited your post for visibility. .

and your links were kind of screwed up too.. For the image, you were supposed to but the img tags in there.. and instead you had put url tags...

Anyhow all fixed right now.. and I don't personally have any kind of concern about some miners suffering or getting pushed out if the BTC prices don't go up as much as they are gambling on it.. and mining does seem to be a bit of a cut throat game in terms of some of the more efficient miners are going to be able to continue to operate and some less efficient miners may well get forced out... but who knows.. there have already been quite a bit of purging out of miners in the last correction, so it is difficult to determine if some miners might be gambling too much upon something sparking BTC price rises, such as a ETF approval.. but they do frequently seem to ramp up their hashpower prior to the halvening.. so we can see that they have a bit more than 6 months to continue mining with the current level of rewards.. .when the halvening kicks in and then some of the miners might shut down or slow down at that time on purpose because the reward has suddenly halved (this time around from 6.25 BTC to 3.125).

Even though I agree with your overall point that it can be a BIG waste of time to be trying to strategize dips with your DCA funds, there can still be ways to reasonably try to buy on dips with your DCA, whether your DCAs are on a weekly or on a monthly basis...

And, yeah maybe newbies get way too preoccupied by trying to buy on dips and also getting worried if their BTC holdings are in profits or at losses, and surely for newbies there should be nothing wrong if the overall portfolio is at losses because if you keep accumulating BTC while the holdings are at losses, you are bringing down your average cost per BTC.. and sure it could still take a long time to get back into profits, but if you are in early accumulation stages, there should be some ability to just keep buying and not to worry so much.

Another thing is the recognition that it could take 3-5 years or maybe even 10 years of ongoing and consistent investing, whether in bitcoin or any other kind of asset, in which the investment portfolio (or bitcoin portfolio) is really starting to get into an area of potential life changing money, so surely it can become distracting to end up making newbie mistakes of cashing out way too much BTC too soon and then not riding out some kinds of up and down waves that ends up putting BTC prices way higher than the price that some or all of the BTC holdings had gotten sold...

So yeah, none of us know the future, and I can see why some people have difficulties continuing to invest in bitcoin if they might  not have any other investments and then if the BTC price shoots up, it could suddenly cause their investment amount to become worth several times their annual salary.. and they just don't have the discipline to figure out some kind of way of managing their holdings when it starts to become way larger than they might have had thought that it would become.  Managing your holdings is also getting off topic since this is largely a BTC accumulation thread.. .. but surely the ways that we accumulate BTC does likely get affected by our having had already accumulated BTC and if we think that we have enough or not and then we might start to just think about how many dollars they are which might well suggest to stop with the DCA at that point and to convert to buying on dips.. but it might not mean selling any BTC, but each person needs to figure out these kinds of balances for themselves.

There is a power within compounding and exponentials... so if the BTC price is going up through the years, and maybe not very clearly over a few years, but over a cycle or two, you are able to see a kind of stablizing and building upon itself in such a way that after a certain passage of time, it becomes quite difficult to push the BTC price below certain price points. 

So for example in 2013, when I first got into bitcoin it was likely becomeing more and more difficult to go below $100, and then after the BTC price went up to $1,163 and then corrected back down into the $100s.. it started to become quite difficult for the price to even go below $200.. .. even though bitcoin naysayers were proclaiming that we would be seeing double digit bitcoin. .but it did not end up happening.. .and the same was true after 2017 when people were proclaiming that we would be seeing BTC prices in the $1,000-ish arena, and the lowest it got was $3,124.. and even had a lot of that time that it was mostly above $6k, and probably the same is becoming true in regards to $20k being much more difficult to breach.. but surely $10k is difficult to breach, and if you have been into bitcoin for a while, then you likely have been accumulating BTC for quite lower prices, and there were many opportunities to accumulate bitcoin for less than $10k before late 2020.. and even if there were periods above $10k, there were a hell of a lot of opportunties to accumulate bitcoin below $10k prior to late 2020.. so it seems quite likely that sub - $10k coins is gone forever...   ..

and there is also likely going to be a time in which sub $30k coins are no longer a possibility.. even though we cannot really know how long it is going to take before we can start to feel a certain level of confidence that the BTC price will never go below $30k again.. just likely we can have a certain amount of increasing levels of confidence that BTC prices will never go below $10k, $1k, and/or $100... It is not guaranteed.. but fairly high levels of confidence begin to develop with the further distance that the BTC price gets from those prices and also that certain lower prices become harder and harder to achieve.. and it surely already could be the case that sub $20k will never be seen again, even though a lot of people seem to be thinking that sub-$20k has decent odds of happening... but we are already below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time (which is currently at $27,903 and going up at nearly $14 per day), and it is just starting to seem unrealistic to be expecting BTC prices to even stay below the 200-week moving average for as much time as it has already been spending below the 200-week moving average in the last year and a half.

Yearly payments can be a bit of a strange arrangement.. and perhaps a bit more difficult to manage if you might be considering ways that you invest it and you likely have various kinds of monthly expenses, and sometimes there could be some practicality to manage the spending of the rent over a year.. but that could still get us into questions of the value of lump sum investing versus DCA versus buying on dips.. and the once a year payment could end up getting divided into all three categories.. of course, within your discretion and within your own particular circumstances that include considerations of anticipated BTC price movements and also considering how many BTC (or satoshis) you had already accumulated.

It can be a bit more challenging and even in needs of creativity when managing such low frequency cashflows ... ..

Do you like it like that set up?   Are you in any kind of a position to change the set up? 

Might there be a way to try to set it up with more frequency, such as twice a year?

I know sometimes if you are receiving payments once a year, then you are probably being paid in advance.. but I suppose a contract (or custom) could be written (carried out) either way... and another thing if there is a kind of standard in the area that everyone likes to follow, then it might become more difficult to change such custom practices.


Sometimes people buy bitcoin because they believe that the price will go up and then so they are using money that they actually need to pay their expenses, but if the BTC price goes up, then they can pay some (or all) of those expense from their bitcoin investment.

I personally believe that it is risky to be investing money into bitcoin that you are going to need in the next 4 years or so.  In other words, it seems to me to be a better practice to invest into bitcoin with money that you do not need, and maybe you will not need that money for 4-10 years.. and maybe you keep investing small amounts with new money, and so 4-10 years later you can look at how your investment has been building, and some of the money that you put in will have been older money and some will have been newer money, and hopefully over the years you are able to increase your small investment amount (such as $10 per week) to be larger and larger amounts, such as $100 or more per week....

Yet no matter how much you invest into bitcoin, whether small amounts or larger amounts, you should be able to get advantages from allowing that build 4-10 years or longer.. but maybe even putting aside such small amounts on a regular and ongoing basis that you may well not really notice it, even if it takes a long time to build up.  ..... $10 per week seems like a really small amount, but over 10 years, you end up investing $5,200.. and if you are able to do $100 per week, then over 10 years you have invested $52k.. which surely adds up to a decent amount of money invested...even if the dollar is likely to continue to go down in value more and more and the dollar may well ONLY be worth less than half as much as it is currently after 10 more years of being debased (and irresponsible policies in regards to being able to preserve its value).

Cute.

who would have thunk that we actually look like that?.. .from a no coiner's perspective.


It's up to you.

Would be pretty dumb to sell, but hey we have a lot of dummies who pass through here who do not know what to do when it comes to their own BTC accumulation...

and by the way, overall when it comes to BTC accumulation, selling is not a good plan.. but ongoing buying and HODLing when in doubt tend to be good plans, especially when attempting to look out a couple of cycles.


Yep.. but you still likely have to consider the bottom price rather than the top price, unless you are selling and getting into dollars rather than bitcoin, which does not seem to be a very good approach.


Why?

It does not matter whether Saylor/MSTR lets his complete BTC ride or if he shaves off a few billion dollars worth from his then holdings (which currently are at around 158k BTC, but maybe he will have more BTC at that time?). Who cares?   Saylor/MSTR can do whatever he likes in regards to holding his BTC or even selling them or some combination. 

You seem to be wanting to suggest that the bitcoin community (HODLers) needs to be worried about MSTR/Saylor dumping on BTC or starting to engage in BTC manipulation based on the number of coins that he currently holds.. even if it happens, so what.. let the price do whatever it is going to do.

One of the greatest things about bitcoin is that you do not need to get a lot of capital in order to be able to invest into bitcoin.. You can invest as low as $10 per week or maybe even lower than that.. but surely you should be trying to invest as much as you are able to, especially if your amounts are so small.

Surely, you have to be able to get some level of discretionary income, and that is the amount of income that you have left after you pay your monthly expenses.   So if you never have any money that is beyond the level of your monthly expenses, then you are kind of fucked in terms of being able to invest into bitcoin and you might have to either work towards increasing your income and/or lowering your expenses, or perhaps resolving yourself to the fact that you are not going to be able to invest into bitcoin.

When it comes to investing into bitcoin, people with more discretionary income are advantaged over people with less discretionary income - however, even people with low levels of discretionary income can end up passing up people with higher levels of discretionary income because they choose to invest into bitcoin and an overwhelming majority (something like 99% of the worlds population) is not even investing into bitcoin, so there are a lot of people over which any of us can get advantage when we are investing into bitcoin and they are either not investing or they are going to start investing into bitcoin at a much later date than some of us earlier adopters.. and even starting out now, you are not too late.

Many of us have already acknowledged that some people might not be in a position to be investing into bitcoin or anything else because they personally do not have their finances in a good enough place, such as having some kind of an emergency fund.

I specifically asserted that the emergency fund can be built and buying into bitcoin can be accomplished at the same time; however, surely you might not be able to be as aggressive in your bitcoin investment during the time in which you are still building up your emergency fund, and you will be able to afford to be more aggressive in terms of buying into bitcoin after you have already established your emergency fund.

I personally doubt that very much, if any weight, should be given to your own predictions about if the BTC price is going to go up or down, especially if you are an admitted no coiner. 

Now, once you have established some bitcoin, maybe you have been investing $10 per week for  a year or something like that (so then you would have $520 invested.. it is still not a lot.. so even after a year, you might still NOT need to be worrying about which way you think the BTC price is going to go.. and even if you invest for 4 years, at $10 per week, you still would only have $2,080  ($520x4)  invested.. so maybe at some point you might start to attempt to be more strategic about your BTC purchases, but it seems like a pretty BIG ASS waste of time, as compared with just buying regularly in order to start to get your base up there, even if you might be buying some of your BTC at higher prices, you likely do not know enough about which direction the BTC price is going to go anyhow.. but if you do, hopefully you are not becoming too strategic about the whole matter and missing opportunties to just buy and continue to prepare yourself for up.

And think about it.. if you are starting out at $10 per week and then maybe at some point you are able to go to $100 per week or even more than that, it still could well end up taking you several years to get your bitcoin investment up to meaningful amounts.. With $100 per week and then 52 weeks in a year, so $5,200 per year, at least after 10 years you have invested $52k into bitcoin, so surely at that point you are likely going to start feeling that your investment size is getting to become a good amount, especially if BTC might continue to appreciate in value between now and 2033 (10 years from now).

Nonsense.  Diversification is not necessary. You are repeating a lie in at least a couple of ways:  1) you are misusing the term diversification to suggest that it applies to shitcoins or to investing into assets that are already largely correlated to bitcoin and  2) the practice of diversification (if it is helpful) is most applicable accross industry sectors, not within the same industry (or sectors).. so think bitcoin, stocks, property, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents.. shitcoins ar not a separate sector they are related to bitcoin... largely as affinity scams.


That's dumb.

Just because others do it does not make it a good plan. or even make it necessary to do... sure you can fuck around with those coins on a short term basis, but it is not a good long term plan because you better know how to get in and out and how to not overallocate to such pump and dump crap.


There is nothing wrong with the concept of diversification, especially once one might start to get to a level of savings/investments in which it starts to matter.. but overly diversification can also be a lack of focus.. so there should be some balance in terms of how much time, money and energies that people can spread themselves out in order to get such diversification balance which will also partly depend upon how much time money and energy they have too.. so it is not a given that diversification is a good idea for all people in all situations.


That is a dumb and a false premise.

Shitcoins are not going to save you if bitcoin fails.


They might not be competing with bitcoin, but they are not adding you any kind of protection in the event that bitcoin were to go down.  Only ill-informed people think those kinds of things.. You have to really not know what bitcoin is if you are going to conclude that some shitcoin is going to succeed in the event that bitcoin is not doing well.


Another dumb reason to invest into something.. and you are admitting that shticoins are not an investment.  They are merely an in and out play.. so yeah, sure you can invest into some shitcoins, but it better not be more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin holdings, and maybe even 10% would be too much and  you surely are saying that if you do happen to fuck around with shitcoins you better know when to get in and when to get out, too.

Sure you are largely admitting that shitcoins are gambling, and surely gambling is not a very good investment approach.


Long term investors need to think about both upside and downside. not just upside.. so yeah if you are investing in shitcoins because you want upside, then surely you have to make sure that you are able to get out without getting too worried about holding them for the long term.. or hopefully not getting trapped into holding them longer than you should.


I doubt that the bitcoin halvening is priced in... and the fact that you are already admitting that the market reacts in unpredictable ways likely shows that the halvening is not priced in.


This makes some sense in terms of the tailoring that anyone should be attempting to perform when they decide the extent to which they should spread themselves out.

I agree with the other points of your post.Moreno233.

But in the above cited portion, you fairly accurately described what MSTR is doing.. which is that they have been buying BTC fairly consistently based on their own cashflows (what capital they have available) and they do not seem to care too much about price.. they just seem to assume that BTC is mostly going to go up in the long term, even though not really being sure about what BTC is going to do in the shorter term. 

That pretty much is DCA.. even though you said that they are not doing DCA.  Probably the ONLY things different from DCA is that they are trying to front load their investment.. and their increment for buying and/or considering to buy seems to be on a quarterly basis (or at least they report what they did, if they did anything on a quarterly basis).

In MSTR's case, it may well be that front loading really does not make too much if any kind of a difference in regards to their largely ongoing buying of BTC in a kind of DCAing approach... that also might not be exactly on a weekly or monthly schedule, but seems to somewhat be quarterly. .even though there have been some quarters in which they did not buy any BTC.... yet I do believe that they are assessing what to do in regards to bitcoin, if anything, on a quarterly basis.

Waiting for the dip is not always good. Although I am not yet an investor, I have observed some movement in the Bitcoin price chat. I wanted to buy Bitcoin when I had the money and, as of then, Bitcoin was $20k, but I didn't buy it because I did not have information and any strategy that I could use to accumulate more coins whenever I have more money saved separately for investment. Since I joined this forum, I have learned how to apply the DCA method whenever I start accumulating BTC. Bitcoin investment is productive when an investor has a strategy.
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Waiting for the dip is not always good.. especially if you don't have any bitcoin.

If you are waiting for the dip, then you are preparing for ONLY 1 direction, which is down.

One of the basic ideas of learning about bitcoin is to prepapare yourself for either BTC price direction, which largely means that the overwhelming number of people (including uie-pooie) don't have enough BTC.. they (and you) are not prepared for UP.

How do you get prepared for UP?  You start buying and you continue to buy until you have reached enough of a BTC stack size that you feel that you are prepared for UP.

So get started sooner rather than later rather than being a no coiner.. and sure it is better to be a low coiner rather than a no coiner and even better to be a lowcoiner who is constantly trying to increase his/her BTC stash size rather than a lowcoiner who is just waiting around and not doing anything besides talking about possibly getting some BTC some day.

The power is in those who act and also in those who try to act in a reasonable way that they don't cause themselves to have to lose their coins.. so whether that is $100 a week or $10 per week or some other amount that you believe is sufficiently aggressive but not too aggressive that you end up having to sell coins at a time that is anything but at a time that is of your own choosing.


Bitcoin is whatever you are able to make it to be, including a way transact and move value and also a way to store value that so far has seemed to have had been not very correlated to traditional asset classes.  Of course in the short term there are some kinds of correlations and even seemingly correlations that people frequently misread their meanings... Better if none of us is getting distracted in our attempts to pigeon-hole or limit what bitcoin is, even though surely bitcoin does not do all things, but it does create a lot of strong incentives in terms of serving as the soundest money that the world has ever seen including the value of it being very portable, very verifiable and something that bitcoin users are able to secure on their own without third parties.. even if sometimes there can be some technical challenges in regards to the various ways that individuals might choose to hold their coins and those systems are still evolving, some of them more user-friendly (and secure) than others.

Rome was not built in a day, however the network effects^** in bitcoin keep building (and growing).. whether you want to believe (or recognize) it or not.

**Referring to those 7 network effects outlined by Trace Mayer.

In other words, there is no need to show a complete country or a complete system operating on bitcoin in order for bitcoin to be successful because little by little bitcoin is getting into each and all countries.. and still bitcoin is likely less than 1% of the world's population of adoption - scattered all over the world.. so bitcoin exists in an overwhelming number of countries around the world.. but for sure in no kind of a dominant way.. because bitcoin is existing side by side with various fiat systems that are likely going to continue to lose more and more of their value into bitcoin.. so in that regard, we have the greatest wealth transfer in the world going on right before our eyes, even if some people (probably and overwhelming majority of the people because otherwise they would already own some) are failing/refusing to see it.

Maybe when you get to a stage in which you are starting to get ready to diversify, it will start to make more sense which place to either start to put value or to lump sum into it.  Surely one of the advantages about bitcoin and dollars (or whatever is your fiat), you can fairly easily get in and out of them, including that you are able to put small amounts at a time. 

Sometimes it can be more complicated with something like investing into property or like a business, but sometimes the property could become logical since you might be living in it as well.. but at the same time, it is not very liquid or moveable.

Sometimes with something like stocks you have to figure out how to open up an account, and you might even have to have a certain amount of value that you have to be able to put into it.. and perhaps that's part of the appeal that a lot of normies have when it comes to getting into shitcoins instead of some more traditional investments, and perhaps some of the shitcoin and bitcoin space might contribute towards making some of the traditional investments more available and easier to get into.. one of the things that people like about something like Robinhood.... but there are becoming more of those kinds of services.. but still 3rd party risk with those kinds of accounts.. and for sure KYC. .yet in my view, there can be some advantages towards having both KYC and non-KYC.. and of course, there are ways in which bitcoiners are continuously trying to figure out more ways for a circular economy in which there are several non-KYC transactional and interaction options.

At the risk of my being redundant in this post as compared with my earlier post on the topic, I am not sure if you need to reach 1 BTC.. It is sort of an arbitrary thing to focus on 1 BTC when it might not be a practical goal.. but surely that is up to you and your capacities and your timeline. 

Any amount of ongoing BTC accumulation is likely to put you in a better place so long as you do not overdo it and cause yourself to have to give up some or all of your BTC...

So I would suggest to try to consider being practical in terms of whether or not it is a good idea for you to focus on an arbitrary goal of 1 BTC merely because someone else said that 1 BTC is good.. without even knowing your particular circumstances.

One of the best things that any of us can do when it comes to bitcoin is to allow bitcoin to help us to be able to figure out our own financial and psychological circumstances and thereby be able to tailor our BTC accumulation to our own particulars..