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December 10, 2018, 10:12:57 AM *
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: Today at 02:49:21 AM
I'm prepared to buy all the way down. I will not begin until we reach the next resistance area around $2,700ish.

i will jump in if we reach 1.5 k  Smiley
2  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: Today at 12:56:41 AM
Fiat-Money wird IMMER aus dem Nichts geschöpft, auch bei den Schweizern. Dazu bemühe ich die doppelte Buchführung: Bei der Geldmengenausweitung durch eine Bank wird ein Paar aus Guthaben und Kredit erstellt, in der Summe Null.

Das perfide an dem Spiel besteht darin, die zwei Positionen je nach Interessenlage unterschiedlichen "Kasten" zuzuschreiben. Für gewöhnlich wird das Guthaben (mit dem man Aktien, Immobilien, Rohstoffe und andere Sachwerte erwirbt) zunehmend den Mächtigen zugeschustert. Der Kredit dagegen wird "sozialisiert", trägt also die gewöhnliche nichts ahnende Bevölkerung. (Das hat aus meiner Sicht allerdings noch den tieferen Sinn, dass die Natur sich unseres Konsumwahns erwehrt, und deshalb dem Mittelstand das Geld entzieht, quasi praktizierter Naturschutz).

Durch die Geldmengenausweitung wird der Wert des Fiat-Money vermindert. (Verdoppelung der Menge entspricht Halbierung des Werts einer Einheit)

Global gesehen gibt es keine Steigerung, materiell ist das ein abgeschlossenes System. Die Aktienkurse steigen also gar nicht, sondern es handelt sich um eine Blendung durch die Fiat-Vermehrung. Im Internet gibt es Statistiken zu Geldmengenwachstum und Aktienkurswachstum, und die sind über jahrzehnte ungefähr gleich stark. Ich glaube, ich hatte die Bilder schon mal gepostet.

Ich plädiere dafür, alle Kredite global zu ächten!

Auf welcher Seite der Buchhaltung (Soll oder Haben) verbuchen die Zentralbanken das neu geschaffene Geld?

Also ist das neu Geschaffene Geld Eigenkapital oder Fremdkapital der Zentralbanken?

Und vor allem mit welcher Begründung, wird das neu geschaffene Geld als Eigenkapital oder als Fremdkapital in der Buchhaltung der Zentralbanken verbucht.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_Lockerung


Bezüglich SNB, der CHF war für lange zeit bei 1,20 € gekoppelt um der schweizer wirtschaft zu helfen.

Ist eine Währung zu hoch bewertet bekommt der export und tourismus (steigt der Wert der eigenen Währung heißt das automatisch das der Wert der anderen Währungen gegenüber deiner fällt, sprich es wird alles teurer für ausländer)- welche die hauptbranchen der schweizer sind - probleme.

Um dem kurs zu halten musste die SNB natürlich die Geldmenge erweitern und hat damit devisen (hauptsächlich €) und aktien gekauft.
3  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Genetic Engineering of Humans on: Today at 12:31:21 AM
I totally support this guy. Scientists have become cowards. Everything here was voluntary, and the possible benefits are enormous. While the entire rest of the world is doing unending long-term studies on incremental bits & pieces which even in the best case might show marginal benefits after many years, this guy took one giant leap for mankind. We need more mad scientists in the world...

The poll doesn't have a no-regulation option. I'm all for it without regulation. I hope that eventually at-home genetic modification becomes as common as 3D printing today, and the fact that this apparently "rogue" scientist was able to pull it off gives me a lot of hope in that area. If only governments end up able to do this sort of thing, then I'm nearly certain that eg. China will pursue genetic modification aimed at making people more docile; we need bottom-up countermeasures.

I sometimes wish that I had gotten into genetic engineering as a field rather than computers. It'll probably be the next massive technological revolution.

It could be the beginning of a super-human race that will replace homo-sapiens

Why is that a bad thing? If my son is twice as smart and twice as strong as me, that'll be a very good thing.

Agreed. People often have an irrational conservative bias when it comes to this stuff. If a race of super-humans is created, then they should dominate most things (based on their increased merit, not automatically). And it's not like there's eugenics against stupid/sub-optimal people today, so I'm not worried about some non-modified-genocide situation.

I think that many of these modifications will eventually be possible on adults, too, though, delivered via injectable viruses.

Quote from: Frakenstein
soon my mind was filled with one thought, one conception, one purpose. So much has been done, exclaimed the soul of Frankenstein—more, far more, will I achieve; treading in the steps already marked, I will pioneer a new way, explore unknown powers, and unfold to the world the deepest mysteries of creation.
Smiley


genome based bio weapons gonna be fun  Smiley
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2018, 06:44:00 PM
Just read a nice, trying to be objective view of BTC on ZH.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-08/bitcoin-mining-beauty-capitalism

Looks like mining remains profitable for well-run enterprises. From the article:

At the moment, Northern Bitcoin has 15 containers with 210 mining machines each. The 15 containers produce around 5 bitcoin per day at a total cost of around $2,500 dollars at the end of November 2018 and after the difficulty of solving the math problems went down by ~17 percent.

Taking that number with a grain of salt without any other info except .05$ per kwh.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2018, 05:46:58 AM

Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

Not even halfway, way too early. One shoulder does not make a neckline.


Thus i said might and crossing fingers.  Grin

Really hope for a bounce else it just looks like we are totaly rekt.


@rolling

Or you just go with the trend Tongue
6  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Do you support arming taiwan? on: December 09, 2018, 05:44:40 AM

Mostly it makes sense to me that the various East and SE Asian countries who are threatened by mainland China band together into a mutual defense pact which 1) specifically labels China as a threat...fairly obviously they are given their claims on the South 'China' sea..., and 2) pointedly does NOT have any reliance or relationship with the United States in particular.  They should jointly develop, share, and control any and all defensive retaliatory capabilities necessary.




I dont think that is possible anymore in view of the chinese military and economic power, additionaly to the fact that russia is on their side.

Imho the US should start something similar like OBOR to bind asia, africa and east europe to the west.

China already has a huge headstart in this regard and needs to be stopped with all might - else the next generation or the generation after will grow up with a global social credit system.

7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2018, 05:20:47 AM
Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.
now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/


Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  Roll Eyes

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why. on: December 09, 2018, 05:09:14 AM
the recovery will take a long time not because of some imaginary market cycle or definitely not because sometime in the past the same trend lasted X number of days.

it will take a long time because of the incidents of last month which led to an unexpected crash of the price that led to fear and lack of confidence and for that come come back it takes time. we also have accumulation to account for which needs a long time.

in other words if the manipulation of last month didn't happen, price would have already been on the rise and the downtrend would have ended.

Makes me thing we are still in denial and far away from the bottom lol
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitmex boning us up the botty? on: December 09, 2018, 04:51:56 AM
Yup its bitmex, look at the volume.

They made 18k btc for their insurance fund in 6 months? Cheesy
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC is not going UP anytime soon and here is why. on: December 09, 2018, 04:48:54 AM
looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days).

because there were not many things to drive a big price increase, things like:

- japan accepting bitcoin
- bitcoin cash hard fork (free coins)
- Then had news from South Korea
- launch of bitcoin futures

When CME futures were launched, it actually triggered a big decrease in price. BTC never recovered.

And look what happened with the recent BCH hard fork. Free coins, right? Both coins combined are worth much less than the original BCH, and the entire market has crashed. That's a stark contrast to the "hard fork = free coins = everything pumps" mentality of 2017.

It just goes to show you: good news doesn't mean rising price. In a bear market, good news doesn't matter at all. Nobody cares, everybody sells.


I dont buy the CME story - just compare their volume to bitmex lol
11  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: December 07, 2018, 10:26:12 PM
Was haltet ihr von dieser Theorie, dass Bitmex Shorter, dadurch dass in BTC gesettled werden sehr viel Verkaufdruck durch Gewinne auf Spot Börsen erzeugen können?
Bitmex hat ja immerhin das größte Volumen und könnte durchaus mittlerweile den Preis bestimmen.
Das habe ich mich schon immer gefragt, ob man nicht einfach als Gruppe eine große Position auf Bitmex eingehen kann und dann mit weniger Geld den Kurs auf den Index Börsen in die eigene Richtung drücken kann.
Kann natürlich in beide Richtungen gehen, aber da Shorten durch BTC settlement klar im Vorteil ist, kann das natürlich so noch besser funktionieren?

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/a42ndz/bitmex_btc_settled_futures_is_killing_the_btc/


Das ist keine theorie - wird im großen Stil betrieben Tongue
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 10:14:54 PM
Btw. it wasnt a short sqeeze, coz more then 1k BTC were newly added lol:

https://de.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDSHORTS
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 10:09:35 PM
well that bounce was shortlived  Lips sealed
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 06:07:59 PM
Re orderbook:

Agree, but how real are that buy walls?

Could be cancled quite quick to orchestrate a dump sub 3k.

(Being quite active on coinbase for a while, and the market maker there does that a lot of times)
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 05:15:48 PM

 Cheesy yah man I was just playing..

 I see it somewhere between here - $3200 / 200 weekly MA and $2800 for maximum pain.

Squeeze the longs then squeeze the shorts



This dude is cleaning the table and eating our lunch!

Shorts are at ATH on finex.

Btw. Isnt that funny that arthur is probaly the best earning person in crypto roach?  Grin
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 04:54:43 PM
When squeeze ?  Wink

3200
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 07:45:02 AM
Oh also, BTC YTD: -74,5%

The BTC YTD from the bottom of the last rally (14.01.15) was: -77%
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 07:43:01 AM


Im smelling some panic  Cry
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 03:13:54 AM
Shorts now at prior ATH

Prices are down, that means in fiat value we are still below last ath.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2018, 02:40:24 AM
What is dead may never die boys
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