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301  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin limit supply on: July 17, 2022, 09:56:31 PM
There are millions of Satoshi in one Bitcoin and are in bits so even if the total 21 million Bitcoinhase been mined, the total buts will only increase in price which gives Bitcoin an infinite total supply. But you should also understand that Bitcoin, if the demand increase so the scarcity will inflate the price.
This is where the laws of economics apply. with the increasing scarcity of bitcoins to be traded while demand increases, it will further increase the price, and of course this limited supply I think will only affect the price, and of course crypto currency is not only bitcoin. and of course if developments are in accordance with our vision for the future, then we are very suitable for investing, as many people are doing today.
This depends on if the price of bitcoin is elastic, or inelastic.

It says that there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin and the current BTC supply is almost at 19,094,150. What happens when its limit reached? will BTC price goes up instantly due to scarcity? is it the doom for Bitcoin since there is no room to mine? or maybe it will likely never reach 21 million?
Bitcoin is like money, people will always be needing to exchange their coin for goods/services, so there will always be a supply of bitcoin being "sold" for other things.

Once the block subsidy reaches zero, the block reward will be made up entirely of transaction fees. A long time before this happens, the majority of the block reward will be transaction fees, so miners will only be marginally affected.
302  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Crypto lender Celsius files for bankruptcy in New York on: July 17, 2022, 09:51:03 PM
what companies do is they "paper loan" (no actual money switches hands) to a dying company
EG say $2billion (on paper not real cash transfer)

<>
If a company were to do this immediately before filing for bankruptcy, they would be forced to reverse this transaction by the bankruptcy court.

Another grand display of financial imprudence and recklessness. Celsius attracted many customers through mouth watery interest rates and easy access to most times un-collaterized loans. Sometimes the operations of most of these crypto lending companies is similar to ponzi operations. They seems not to put into consideration the risk and volatility of the crypto space while offering there services. They feel that because of the recent favorable bullish trend of the crypto market, they are free to be careless. But without a strong risk management systems and sound financial management practices we might see more lending companies file for bankruptcy. Filling for bankruptcy is not the end of the road for Celsius, they can still put their house in order and bounce back gallantly.     
While I do agree that Celsius acted recklessly in making loans, I don't think they were a ponzi scheme. Celsius was essentially a bank, however, it does not appear they were very good at managing credit risk. Celsius would take deposits from their customers, and pay a lower interest rate than they expected to receive from loans made to borrowers using the money deposited.

303  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it good? Create different wallet types and addresses by same seed on: July 17, 2022, 09:42:32 PM
There is nothing technically wrong with doing something like that.

Also considering privacy and security, as long as each address type is derived from a different key then you are fine. Meaning you should never use key at m/0/0 for both P2PKH and P2TR addresses, instead you should use keys at different paths like this: m/0/0 for P2PKH and m/0/1 for P2TR.
If this is not followed and the implementation is flawed, you could easily leak your private key each time you spend from both P2TR and P2PKH/P2WPKH addresses.
Note that it only works for Taproot (Schnorr sigs) and any of the older address types that use ECDSA.
I don't think this is a serious enough risk to warrant different deprivation paths to be used for each address type. If someone is using P2PKH addresses, you could similarly argue that their private keys would be leaked if the implementation is flawed. I think it would be better to use the default path for each address type for the wallet software you are using. This will make it simpler to recover your private key from the seed if you need to access your keys from a backup, which is a more realistic problem.
304  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Two person having the same seed phrase on: July 17, 2022, 09:28:11 PM
My question is what if cryptocurrency continues to exist in the next 100 years is it possible for anyone who create a wallet to continue have a different Seed phrase?

It's possible, but it's not probable. But within next 100 years, it's likely we'll see new version of seed phrase which designed to be more secure (as in harder to brute force).
All that is needed to make something more difficult to brute force is a larger scope of possible inputs. The number of potential seed phrases is large enough that it is very unlikely that someone will ever be able to brute force an existing seed. In order for a seed to be "more secure", it will need to be more difficult to find the seed via some means other than brute force.


A seed phrase is basically a 128 bit number. Nobody is going to get someone else's seed if they use proper random numbers.
The problem is that it is very difficult to know if the process of generating a number (seed) is in fact random. In other words, it is difficult to test that a procedure generates a random number.
305  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 17, 2022, 08:55:13 PM
Banks make unsecured loans all the time without issue
Based on thorough risk assessments, credit scores, income analysis, and so on. It seems very much like Celsius were handing out loans to any large entity which wanted one without really any due diligence on how that loan was to be repaid or what it was to be used for.
I don't think I can argue with you on this one, at least in principle. Celsius may or may not have known the purpose of the loan, but it seems that if they did know the purpose, they had very lax standards.

There are a few forum members who have made a business out of lending, sometimes without collateral. I am sure that some of these loans have gone bad, but I believe their business is overall profitable, net of losses.
Yes, but these users have very strict limits as to what they will lend without collateral. They certainly aren't risking amounts sufficient to put them out of business should their customer default.
Forum lenders don't take deposits, which I am aware of, and anyone trying to take deposits would likely quickly be labeled a scammer.

My issue is not with Celsius making unsecured loans
Mine is. While they claimed all loans were collateralized by at least 150%, we know now that this was not the case.
They made that statement in 2019, and it is possible that their business model had subsequently changed. I am not sure how much demand there is for fully collateralized crypto loans. It is also possible that greed got the better of whoever made (and approved) the decision to make these risky loans, as I would think if they turned out better, they would have made Celsius a lot of money.
306  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 17, 2022, 08:10:44 PM
And, by the way, China has taken big steps to meet their goal of being carbon neutral by 2060 (same as Russia, and just 10 years after lefty boris promised) and has been the biggest investor in renewable energy for almost 10 years now.
Because the Chinese government should be trusted by default. In the meantime, China will continue to build additional coal power plants and will take other measures to increase its carbon emissions.

In the West, governments are actually taking steps to becoming less energy independent.
307  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: July 17, 2022, 07:32:19 PM
I'd be interested to see what Mashinsky does next after he likely loses his job after Celsius likely either goes out of business or is sold.
Reports are that he sold around $45 million worth of CEL tokens he had very kindly given himself prior to collapse, so I'm sure he'll be fine. Although no doubt he will launch Celsius 2.0 or some other bullshit and people will flock to it. I mean, just weeks after the scam that was Terra Luna collapsed to nothing, Terra Luna v2 has a volume of $90 million a day. There are plenty of people in this space who are beyond stupid, and immoral people like Mashinsky are all too happy to capitalize on that stupidity.
I am sure that he was paid well during his tenure, so even if the reports are false, he is likely to be okay financially. It is pretty rare for someone who once ran a business to not try again.

Luna is probably off topic here, but its recent collapse was not the first time that something similar had happened to a stablecoin that was not backed by actual assets. I don't think Luna's model is sound because someone can bring down the coin by buying up a lot of it over time, and quickly dumping it onto the market, causing its dollar peg to break, removing confidence in the coin.


Looks like Celsius are being served a class action lawsuit: https://www.johnreedstark.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/180/2022/07/CelsiusClassAction.pdf
Quote
Much like a literal Ponzi scheme, Celsius could only maintain its yield rate promises by continually bringing in new investors whose new influx of money would be used to pay off the yield for old investors.
The automatic stay from the bankruptcy filing will put the lawsuit on hold. I am not aware of any evidence that Celsius was a ponzi. I think it is more accurate to say that Celsius made risky investments (loans) that turned bad.
308  Other / Meta / Re: I just got a really weird PM on: July 17, 2022, 02:03:40 PM
The URL is clickable, but the forum has implemented a security feature that will display links to the bitcointalk forum as green when the user hovers their mouse over the link, and will display as blue for all other links.
That "green" is barely noticeable on my screen, and I bet I'm not alone.
I am aware of the feature and notice it. The feature may not be all that well known.

I'm wondering why the security feature that stops fake links to be labeled "Bitcointalk.org" didn't kick in. Example:
http://google.com
Code:
[url=google.com]bitc ointalk.org[/url]
Converting the text to upper case answers it: BITCOINTALK.OГG.
Code:
google.com
It seems that using the above BB code will result in "google.com" to be displayed, however it will show as "bitcointalk.org" when previewing the post. It seems that saving the post will actually remove the BB code, and will only have the link after the "url=". Probably another good feature
309  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 17, 2022, 01:56:49 PM
This is an example (if true) of Celsius throwing all risk out of the window.
The fact that as we discussed previously they handed out billions of dollars loans which were only 50% collateralized, and then went on to spend that collateral, leaving them with fully uncollateralized loans, means we can absolutely say that Celsius did not have good risk management.

I noted before that the hypothecation of collateral increases risk to Celsius, although it does not mean that a loan 50% secured by collateral is now entirely unsecured, it means that Celsius has increased their leverage.

Banks make unsecured loans all the time without issue, as I noted before, credit card debt is generally unsecured, and is so profitable for banks that they have resorted to giving customers rewards for using their credit cards. There are a few forum members who have made a business out of lending, sometimes without collateral. I am sure that some of these loans have gone bad, but I believe their business is overall profitable, net of losses.

My issue is not with Celsius making unsecured loans, my issue is with the purpose of the loans, and the (what I believe) lack of documenting borrowers' ability to repay the loans.  Making a loan to a business for the purpose of buying speculating on NFTs is basically the same as giving someone a loan for gambling. Gambling loans are very risky (for obvious reasons), and anyone who borrows for this purpose needs to have the ability to repay said loan via other reliable sources of income. I can't imagine how Celsius could have documented 3AC's ability to repay their loan via some way other than their NFT bets being successful.
310  Other / Meta / Re: I just got a really weird PM on: July 17, 2022, 05:10:39 AM
@op did you get a warning on the message that it could be phishing?

If I am thinking of the same warning message, that warning is only displayed with newbies send a PM, and it is displayed for all newbies, regardless of PM content. The person who sent the OP the PM is a Junior Member


When I try to post the above BB code in a post, the link does not show up as green when I hover over the link. While this is a phishing link, santhosh121081 was not able to beat the anti-phishing measures of the forum.

That's weird. It was legit-looking and clickable in the PM. Maybe that URL has now been flagged by the system and so won't properly render anymore?
The URL is clickable, but the forum has implemented a security feature that will display links to the bitcointalk forum as green when the user hovers their mouse over the link, and will display as blue for all other links. The link in question was not to a bitcointalk forum page and was displayed as green
311  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Keyhunter on: July 16, 2022, 11:00:01 PM
A more efficient method would be to cache the keys for only a few seconds (in case more keys are found) before printing them to output and clearing the cache. That way, there is no I/O bottleneck, as printing stuff to the terminal continuously can drastically slow down loops by an order of magnitude.

There is no sense to print keys partially. Script is mainly for redirecting to a file (python3 keyhunter.py > keys.txt).
It might be better to take a file path as input, and have the script output the keys to that particular file path. If the intended use is for the script to output to a txt file, there shouldn't be the potential for it to output to the console output.
312  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 16, 2022, 10:26:53 PM
had a "net zero" emissions goals for England

Not all conservatives come up ridiculous ways to interpret what Scientists around the world are claiming so that it benefits them personally like they do with the bible.  Tackling the climate change problem translates to more stability long-term, which, is actually a conservative value.

The climate is in fact changing over the long term, but that doesn't mean that it is being caused by humans, that there is anything that humans can do to stop/reverse it, nor that it will result in harm to the ability to inhabit the planet. There have been multiple cycles of climate over long periods of time, for example, many years ago, there was the ice age.

Measures to "fight" climate change are really a means to make the West weaker economically and militarily compared to China.
313  Other / Meta / Re: I just got a really weird PM on: July 16, 2022, 10:08:17 PM

This person didn't participate in that thread and the "link" is some kind of messed up BBCode (which I sanitized before quoting above):

Code:
[flash=200,200]https://[/flash][url=https://bitcointalk.login-index.php-topic.794551.0.thegermanaccess.com/?u=PowerGlove&l=5406168.0]bitcointalk.oгg/index.php?topic=5406168.0[/url]

Anybody know anything? Huh
When I try to post the above BB code in a post, the link does not show up as green when I hover over the link. While this is a phishing link, santhosh121081 was not able to beat the anti-phishing measures of the forum.
314  Economy / Reputation / Re: The curious case of user 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on: July 16, 2022, 09:57:02 PM
The idea that those old scams were gone does not mean that the scammers did, and they could have very well created new accounts such as yours (who knows) and now they say oh look at those old scams they should be all gone.

So you are implying that I may be an old scammer of the forum, which was blamed in the past and then, somehow, returned with a new account and spent years for building a good reputation, just to have the chance to meet such a bright mind as you are to expose me?
Of course, you may be, that is totally possible, no need for a bright mind, even you must say it's possible.
Anyone can be a scammer, but that does not mean that everyone should be treated like a scammer if there is no evidence they are a scammer.

Sure, it is possible that GazetaBitcoin is an alt of some scammer, but I am not aware of any evidence to suggest that is the case. Nor am I aware of any accusations of GazetaBitcoin scamming anyone, credible or otherwise.

I would compare this to TF, whose case has a set of facts that I do not believe are disputed (and that I understand are accepted by TF), which makes me believe that TF has not honored his obligations to certain members of the community. You can argue semantics as to what he should be called, but I think it is reasonable to not entrust him with your money.
315  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Recent events should make you withdraw all your coins to your own wallet: Part 2 on: July 16, 2022, 09:34:57 PM
This should be the end of Celsius, and really, of all centralized lending platforms.
Celsius, and other lending platforms operate essentially the same way that banks operate -- that is they borrow money from depositors, and lend money out, and pocket the difference between what they pay in interest, and what they receive in interest via loan payments (less loan losses). If a platform can sufficiently manage risk, including not making risky loans, (and matching loan maturities with when they need to repay their lenders/deposit holders), they have a solid business model.

I also stumbled across this Reddit post which is equal parts hilarious and sad: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vy84rw/3ac_borrowed_millions_from_voyagerblockfi_user/

The summary is the under- or non-collateralized loans which firms like Celsius and Voyager were giving out to 3AC were being used to buy utterly worthless NFTs. Imaging losing all your money on Celsius because it was sent to 3AC and used to buy a jpeg of DickButt.
This is an example (if true) of Celsius throwing all risk out of the window.

It is not uncommon for banks to successfully lend without collateral, for example, most credit cards are unsecured loans, and credit cards are so profitable for banks that they often pay customers to use them (via new account bonuses and rewards). Banks also often lend to businesses successfully, although the underwriting process is often more complex. If Celsius really made a loan to a 3AC to buy NFTs, I think it is fair to say that the underwriting process was too complex for Celsius.
316  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: July 16, 2022, 07:37:27 PM
I really don't see many people depositing more money into Celsius, nor becoming a customer in the near future. I honestly don't think PR should be a concern right now.
I highlighted a quote from Mashinsky in another thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403254.msg60564757#msg60564757. Absolutely ridiculous that with millions of people losing huge amounts of money, he is more concerned about the optics of his company.
I'd be interested to see what Mashinsky does next after he likely loses his job after Celsius likely either goes out of business or is sold.

Celsius currently has negative equity to the tune of at least a billion dollars (according to their numbers). This is almost certainly going to result in losses for their customers.

There is the potential that some of the numbers are missing some context, or are based on faulty assumptions, but I don't think they are being intentionally misrepresented.
I would agree. I don't think they are intentionally wrong, rather just another indication of Celsius' amateurish behavior.
I think the mining loan is probably more of an example of Celsius engaging in risky behavior. Miners are not trivial to liquidate, especially in large numbers, and mining is an inherently risky proposition.

The more details about Celsius' business practices in recent time, the lower opinion I have about their management.
317  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: July 15, 2022, 03:34:26 PM


According to this article (https://www.theblock.co/post/157647/celsius-bankruptcy-documents-claim-1-2-billion-balance-sheet-gap), Celsius have said that their mining operations will be used to pay off their deficits. Apparently they mine ~14 BTC a day. At current prices and hashrates, they would only be able to mine a little over half of that $1.2 billion before the block subsidy disappears in ~120 years.

There is something really fishy there, from the loan which Celsius Mining took from Celsius Loaning to those numbers.
<>
Of course, they could have other miners on other algorithms but the numbers are still inflated, I would say at least by half.

I would say with near certainty that the numbers in the bankruptcy filing are not intentionally inflated. Celsius has no reason to inflate these numbers. No sane person is going to deposit additional coin onto their platform, including coin for collateral for a loan. The bankruptcy filing will put all litigation on hold (prevent litigation from being filed/initiated), and any actual values will eventually come out, if the values are misrepresented.

There is the potential that some of the numbers are missing some context, or are based on faulty assumptions, but I don't think they are being intentionally misrepresented.
318  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What is the motive behind the shooting of the Japanese PM? on: July 15, 2022, 10:38:51 AM
Was surprised to see such little security surrounding Shinzo Abe which even allowed the assailant to get so close with whatever homemade device he had.
Japan has very strict gun laws, so security is accordingly relaxed. Their gun laws really makes everyone more vulnerable to the one person who decides to break the law.

I agree on the point that Japan has relaxed security due in part to tight gun control laws.

But the argument that "their gun laws really makes everyone more vulnerable to the one person who decides to break the law" doesn't make any sense at all. If you want to use a gun to murder someone, then it is far more difficult for you to do so in Japan than it is in, say, the US. Deciding to break the law doesn't mean you are able to do so, if you can't get hold of a gun. Letting everyone have access to guns causes more gun deaths. Restricting access to guns prevents gun deaths.


If there is a bad person who has the intent of doing bad things, if they do not have access to a gun, they can just as easily use other weapons, that in many cases are more difficult to defend against, such as a car or a truck, or a knife.
319  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Get your coins out of Coinify ASAP on: July 15, 2022, 10:36:19 AM
Most likely, Coinifly is not going to allow withdrawals as of the time of the bankruptcy filing if the bankruptcy filing is going to affect the operations. So it is likely too late to withdraw.
I looked around but couldn't find anyone that recently complained about withdrawal issues on Coinify [it's worth noting that it's the exact opposite for Voyager's users], so perhaps there's still some hope.
If this is true, it is likely that Coinify is unaffected by the bankruptcy filing.

The effect of Voyager's bankruptcy filing on Conify depends largely on the legal structure and relationship between the two entities.
320  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 15, 2022, 10:27:26 AM
Johnson campaigned as being a conservative, but when he governed, he was governing from the left.

LOLWHUT?

If Boris Johnson is left-wing, then I'm the fucking Intergalactic Space Pope.  I'm fairly sure you're being unintentionally hilarious, but just no.  

Boris Johnson is continuing the tory trend of asset-stripping public services to sell to private companies.  He believes in private health insurance rather than an NHS which is free at the point of need.  His primary interest in taking the UK out of the European Union is slashing consumer protections, environmental protections and workers rights in order to benefit private companies.  


Johnson was trying to raise taxes on corporations, raised the payroll tax, had a "net zero" emissions goals for England, in addition to crazy covid policies, among other things.

None of the above is what voters voted for, nor is what he campaigned on.
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