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Wow this is pretty stupid
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 I just made a market order with the last of my margin cos of this song lol good luck  |
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What is everyones panic buy prices?
Around 300$  Sounds good, I panic bought some at 450 and look pretty foolish. |
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What is everyones panic buy prices?
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I'm expecting a big rally after the game of thrones season premier.
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China bans bitcoin
China doesn't give a fuck.
bullish?
Bullish. Confirmed? |
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Possible isn't the same as probable.
Pessimism isn't wisdom. If you think there's a reason to assign low probability, that would be helpful to articulate. We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are.
True. We do know how well capitalized several of them are, however. It's very similar to the Internet in the 90s. Stuff is all over the map. That kind of diversity is messy, and healthy. Some degree of confidence that the population will produce survivors is provided by large numbers. We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.
Ignorance is not risk. Structural vulnerability is a source of risk, though. Macro is going to go to hell in a hand-basket. QE can mask the underlying cancer with a high fever, but the patient is still terminal. That implies both volatility and a strong upward path for BTC. The regulatory front is pricing-benign (freedom-malignant), but also it can be routed around. Uncertainties here are few. I think you underestimate the strength of the fundamental trend, and the inexorable power of the price attractors. It's like if there were no reason for BTC to go up, one would have to be invented, just to keep the universe from annihilating itself with a contradiction. Is there a fair chance of a sustained price dip? Yes. Do I think it will happen? Not beyond my ability to manage the mark-to-market risk by trading the volatility. Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board. Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact. I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading. I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled. Yeah I know the feeling, I've managed to lose 35 BTC between Gox and China news. Good luck on your future endeavors and hopefully you can recover your losses. |
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We haven't seen Loaded for a while.
Pretty sure he and his clients got goxxed. |
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Can't imagine the margin calls @400
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I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.
Do people do that? |
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1800 bid on BFX
aaand its gone...
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I like to be optomistic but only 500 to 450 is a bit scary.
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PBoC has just confirmed that it was not the source of the latest ban FUD. This comes from reliable Chinese news soure Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau. Props to Proudhon for the tip.  Lol took me a minute, I hope this is the case. Good luck to everyone today. |
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A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface.
I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.
Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.
Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold. Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy. Hang in there man, I got fiat on the way so the price should skyrocket. |
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anybody seen the 15m ask wall on BFX?
More posturing, I'd love to see a whale eat it whole A whale can't eat it if it's your exchange and you know that nobody has the funds to do it. |
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Looks like the overall consensus is thumbs down, guess I'll look elsewhere.
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Looks like bad news I'm gonna sell |
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BFX getting ready to pump
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pump it.. dump it??
No, this pumper is here to play all day. |
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