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Economy / Gambling / Re: 1.4x game - ZERO host fees - I will MATCH first 4 entries!
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on: August 03, 2011, 09:30:00 PM
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I matched the 4th one, 1.0 with address 1BckhokXbJH3ho381gmpygt2xMkxEsXwmF (I could not find the old address I used in my clients "recieving addresses" for some reason. Better safe than sorry)
OK, I'm done with the "official" matches. But I'll get in again! Lets keep it rolling!
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454
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Extended Difficulty Forecast
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on: August 02, 2011, 06:29:40 AM
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I know, it looks funny with all the up-and-down business. But the thing to realize is that the current Difficulty is affected by events in the price history as far back as three months prior. For this forecast the re-target at block 141120 is based only on price history from May 10, 2011 to August 1, 2011. The next three re-targets in this forecast include data from Time Series Analysis price projections: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=22685The thing I am looking to extract from the price projections is the average daily low price for the relevant Difficulty retarget. I have found the average of daily lows to be the most useful segment from pricing distribution for doing the Difficulty forecasts. The prices shown below the relevant forecasts are the average daily low price projected for the Difficulty period immediately prior to the re-target. In any case, the accuracy of the price projection will have a big effect on how useful the Extended Difficulty forecast is. I have not actually done enough testing to accurately represent the expected error for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th re-target forecasts, this is something I am still working on. Block Number: 141120 Difficulty Lower Extrema: 2077362 Lower Quartile: 2282446 Median: 2388374Upper Quartile: 2515568 Upper Extrema: 2710510 2011-Aug-11 Block Number: 143136 Difficulty Lower Extrema: 1987536 Lower Quartile: 2129575 Median: 2208936Upper Quartile: 2325841 Upper Extrema: 2462632 2011-Aug-27 $12.855 Block Number: 145152 Difficulty Lower Extrema: 2321853 Lower Quartile: 2455972 Median: 2507771Upper Quartile: 2582639 Upper Extrema: 2697588 2011-Sep-08 $12.746 Block Number: 147168 Difficulty Lower Extrema: 2135109 Lower Quartile: 2257329 Median: 2304606Upper Quartile: 2416883 Upper Extrema: 2598353 2011-Sep-22 $12.554 There has been some controversy about your predictions, but I, for one, apreciate them. |
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455
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Freedom and Responsibility - or: why you FAILED if you lost money in MBC crash
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on: August 02, 2011, 06:21:15 AM
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I beg to differ based on the first amendment. He can say whatever he chooses and I suggest you reread his first sentence.
My point is that it is better to be constructive. His solution "keep it on a local machine" is just as bad advice (at least for most people). What if your hdd crashes? Do you make backups? After every send? Are they stored safe enough or can other people find it there? Do you encrypt it? What if you lose the key? And so on. This is a hard problem. Yes I made backups. I have a Mac and I backup via TimeMachine every few days. Plus I have my wallet.dat encrypted via Truecrypt and the resulting file copied to several places, including burnt CDs. What boggles my mind is that anyone with more that 10 BTC doen't also do this. Are you idiots? |
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460
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTCSportsbetting.com Week 1 Report - Now Offering No-Juice Micro-Wagering!!
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on: August 02, 2011, 04:24:53 AM
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I'm not a sports bettor so the "No Juice" thing confused me. I don't know what "-149" means. What I can say is that I play Blackjack at BTCSportsbetting.com, and they ROCK! Great games, great customer service. If you are in the USA, this is your only legal option for professional casino games. I'm a gambler, as you might know from my posts. I've played the amateur games posted in these forums previously. This casino is the real deal, and you bet in BTC, not BTC-converted US $. I'm not a shill. They are not paying me anything. If you follow my posts you know I'm happy to say nice things about good experiences, and bad things about bad experiences. The fact that I'm up .6 BTC total after 3 weeks should not be a consideration  |
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