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101  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: POLL: how much will the bitcoin price drop after reopening of mtgox? on: June 26, 2011, 02:31:00 PM
Tradehill has way less users than Mt. Gox so its not like the Mt. Gox users just went to TH and sold their bitcoins.  Should be interesting to see what happens.  
102  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Attn: Tradehill on: June 26, 2011, 04:20:01 AM
I've noticed that I stay infinitely logged into the site if I don't log out.  I figure there should be a timeout.
103  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 10:25:00 PM
If sticking with mtgox makes me a sucker, than I'm a sucker.  I'd rather trust someone who has dealt with a compromise than someone who is just hoping their security is good enough.  They cockiness of newer users is starting to get very annoying.  They all know how stupid everyone else is, and they ignore reason.  I'm not targeting anyone in particular in this thread with these comments, but I'll be surprised if nobody jumps in to start the name calling.  Obviously, not all new users are part of the problem, but these forums have become much less enjoyable over the past few months.  Let's spend less time insulting each other and try to have a constructive discussion.  Like I said, shit happens and I'd rather put my money with those who know how to use a shovel.

It's hard to have a constructive discussion when so many people here just blindly believe bitcoins will keep going up and up and away!!
104  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 08:26:31 PM
Some of you have pointed out some fairly good examples.  I suppose the situation would be recoverable..............if only the place wasn't just run by 2 kids in Japan!!
105  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 08:21:02 PM
The plummet continues... >10% fall from today's high since Mt. Gox opened. No news to break the trend in sight, many holders traumatized by the hack.

No one will fall for your trolling.

Just stating the facts mam.

Oh, I guess facts is facts.

Riddle me this DrYe5... What happens to the exchange rate when one side of the orderbook is empty???

What do you think will happen when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC on the orderbook because everybody withdrew it?

Mt. Gox will be shortly irrelevant so I'm not sure the point of your question.  Only a fool would trust their money to Mt. Gox.

I love how everyone is calling the demise of Mt Gox. Too bad none of them are man enough to eat the humble pie when it's time.

If Mt Gox does not become irrelevant, it only speaks to the stupidity of its users.

Yeah, because no corporation, bank, or any other institution has ever been compromised or done anything to lose the trust of their users and successfully recovered to come back and be stronger than they were before. Good point.

Could you point out a bank that has had all of its clients' usernames and passwords released to the public?
106  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 08:16:34 PM
The plummet continues... >10% fall from today's high since Mt. Gox opened. No news to break the trend in sight, many holders traumatized by the hack.

No one will fall for your trolling.

Just stating the facts mam.

Oh, I guess facts is facts.

Riddle me this DrYe5... What happens to the exchange rate when one side of the orderbook is empty???

What do you think will happen when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC on the orderbook because everybody withdrew it?

Mt. Gox will be shortly irrelevant so I'm not sure the point of your question.  Only a fool would trust their money to Mt. Gox.

I love how everyone is calling the demise of Mt Gox. Too bad none of them are man enough to eat the humble pie when it's time.

If Mt Gox does not become irrelevant, it only speaks to the stupidity of its users.
107  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 08:05:24 PM
This is the fundamental problem with the currency and why I am expecting a near-term price of between $7-$9.
why not <$1 then?

I said near-term.  The market is so infantile and speculative that it's going to remain above its fundamental price for quite some time.
Please excuse my ignorace, but how do you determine this 'fundamental' price?  got any formula to share?

Look into asset pricing models.

stop bullshitting.  you have no idea.

Since you don't want to do research: R = Rf + B(Rm - Rf)

go from there...

Could you please fill in the numbers so we can clearly see BTC price = $7-9
Thanks

No because this will give you the % expected return and then you use that in a discounted cash flow model to get the price.
108  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 07:55:34 PM
i remember that formula from sophomore econ too!

Hmm did you derive it there too? 
109  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 07:47:51 PM
The plummet continues... >10% fall from today's high since Mt. Gox opened. No news to break the trend in sight, many holders traumatized by the hack.

No one will fall for your trolling.

Just stating the facts mam.

Oh, I guess facts is facts.

Riddle me this DrYe5... What happens to the exchange rate when one side of the orderbook is empty???

What do you think will happen when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC on the orderbook because everybody withdrew it?

Mt. Gox will be shortly irrelevant so I'm not sure the point of your question.  Only a fool would trust their money to Mt. Gox.

For someone representing an economist you suck at answering simple economics questions.

Mt Gox does not exist on an island.  The scenario you are implying is not reality.
110  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 07:45:05 PM
This is the fundamental problem with the currency and why I am expecting a near-term price of between $7-$9.
why not <$1 then?

I said near-term.  The market is so infantile and speculative that it's going to remain above its fundamental price for quite some time.
Please excuse my ignorace, but how do you determine this 'fundamental' price?  got any formula to share?

Look into asset pricing models.

stop bullshitting.  you have no idea.

Since you don't want to do research: R = Rf + B(Rm - Rf)

go from there...
111  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 07:42:35 PM
The plummet continues... >10% fall from today's high since Mt. Gox opened. No news to break the trend in sight, many holders traumatized by the hack.

No one will fall for your trolling.

Just stating the facts mam.

Oh, I guess facts is facts.

Riddle me this DrYe5... What happens to the exchange rate when one side of the orderbook is empty???

What do you think will happen when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC on the orderbook because everybody withdrew it?

Mt. Gox will be shortly irrelevant so I'm not sure the point of your question.  Only a fool would trust their money to Mt. Gox.
112  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching Tradehill prices closely... on: June 25, 2011, 06:58:07 PM
Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

Yes. After the hoards of disgruntled Bitcoiners liberated their precious booty from the evil clutches of the Gox they could not wait to get real money out of their coin on the TradeHill...

All... 460... Coins...

It's extremely unlikely this event is over.
113  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 06:55:57 PM
This is the fundamental problem with the currency and why I am expecting a near-term price of between $7-$9.
why not <$1 then?

I said near-term.  The market is so infantile and speculative that it's going to remain above its fundamental price for quite some time.
Please excuse my ignorace, but how do you determine this 'fundamental' price?  got any formula to share?

Look into asset pricing models.
114  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching Tradehill prices closely... on: June 25, 2011, 06:52:28 PM
Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed. Smiley


I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.
Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.
Who's lacking trust in the actual currency? If anything people are lacking trusts against MTGOX. Not bitcoin lol..

This is the misconception techie types have.  Yes, Mt Gox was the one hacked, however that hacking showed people that they have no recourse when there money is stolen.  A Bitcoin Deposit Insurance Corp. type entity is vital if this currency is to succeed long term.
115  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 06:50:49 PM
This is the fundamental problem with the currency and why I am expecting a near-term price of between $7-$9.
why not <$1 then?

I said near-term.  The market is so infantile and speculative that it's going to remain above its fundamental price for quite some time.
116  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 06:50:05 PM
Mt. Gox hack is only the surface of the problem right now....some fundamental problems (ie. lack of recourse to criminal activity) with the currency are contributing to the sell-off.
If you look at the upwards trend for the last days, its clear that the selloff of the last hours has to do with MtGox opening.

obviously as that's where the funds were trapped.
"Fundamental problems" does not account for the upwards trend of the last days.

There is so much money locked up since Mt Gox went down that the last few days are mostly irrelevant.  Tradehill was less well known and most of the people in there right now are techie types.  Mt. Gox did have some investor types because of its higher profile and these people are going to price systemic risk into their trading. 
117  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Is Useless Because It's Too Easy Too Get Robbed on: June 25, 2011, 06:48:28 PM
This is the fundamental problem with the currency and why I am expecting a near-term price of between $7-$9.
118  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching Tradehill prices closely... on: June 25, 2011, 06:47:35 PM
Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed. Smiley


I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.
Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.
119  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching Tradehill prices closely... on: June 25, 2011, 06:41:33 PM
Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed. Smiley


I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.
120  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gox BTC hitting TH Auction Block on: June 25, 2011, 06:34:06 PM
yay an uptick!
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