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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 10:02:20 PM
...

Just bought a smidge of BTC.  Sell signal for you all?
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 05:42:12 AM
This place sure gets weird when Bitcoin is going down.   And since most of the people here have been through a bear or 2 it's even weirder than weird.


The whole world is getting weirder, quickly, and in a very bad way.  Weirder than during the last bear market for sure.

My uninformed guess, of little value, is that it's all some kind a cultural thing(s).  The USA and Europe have slid into a kind of cultural degeneracy that is absolutely inexplicable to me (Drag Queens teaching First Graders in the NYC public schools how to apply DQ makeup?  Spend more .gov money to slow inflation?  "Green Energy"?  Corruption at all levels?  Loss of fundamental liberties practically every day?  Begging for increased foreign oil production when we have so much oil (and natural gas) here?  Etc.)

I struggle to decide how best to provide what I can for my grandchildren in such an uncertain and toxic environment.  But, no one can do much to help far into the future, especially with the instability we face.

I think I'll start fitting myself for a Tinfoil Hat.  I have crossed over to the other side.  Looks like some of the conspiracy theorists are right.  "It's not incompetence, it's deliberate"
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2022, 06:58:14 PM



cygan

I love Lina Seiche's "The little HODLer".  Please keep posting her work!
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2022, 05:25:13 PM
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I have not seen many comments on mindrust lately...

If he's a trader, or at least buys & sells some of his BTC stash (IIRC he sold around $40,000), I would think that turns out to have been smart!

As many of you know, I sold most of my BTC last year in small pieces, 2021 average sale price: ~$42,250.  I am happy that I was prudent, and took a lot of profit along the way.

Often, prudence can be smart.  


In 2022 I have bought on the way down, costs between $45,000 and $24,000.  Was that prudent?  We'll see.


[edited]


5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 09:46:31 PM
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An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...

Is Wasabi helping blockchain analysis companies track transactions?


Yup, 11 pages on Wasabi's decision to lessen privacy here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286821.0
6  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: What software exists to run a CoinJoin server? [Wasabi debacle] on: June 15, 2022, 09:20:59 PM
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An hour or so ago, author Shawn Amick published this piece on Wasabi's new wallet:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

He writes nothing about Wasabi working with analysis companies, hmm...
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 09:19:09 PM
...

An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...
8  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Announcing Wasabi Wallet 2.0 on: June 15, 2022, 09:14:03 PM
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And, we're off...

Bitcoin Magazine's Shawn Amick writes up some comments on Wasabi's Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that he does not even mention that Wasabi is working with analysis companies....
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2022, 12:06:12 AM
OT:

One really foreboding sign going on in the debt market is that 10 yr bond yield.

Keep your eyes on it.

It is a really bad sign to see the 10-yr incrementally jump 0.1 points every single trading day.

It is signaling really bad things in the debt market.

The Fed better have a plan to stabilize that.


Nice catch, Torque.  

10 yr yield is up pretty sharply over the past few days, it will nail some bond market guys (usually pretty smart guys) badly.  Then what...?

I doubt the FED has a plan for that, what can they do?  [Don't answer that, they can do all sorts of trickery]

The Yield Curve has become more inverted, last I checked.  That's often bad news as well.

Let's hope Honey Badger don't give a ......


Edit: bought a smidge more today
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 11:34:40 PM
.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….


It's because I bought today (a small amount of BTC).  I'm sorry.  My speculations go the wrong way some 80% of the time (for a few days...).

please decide to sell, soon  Smiley


As we tick below $22k as I write, I DO have to consider what you suggest.  Wink
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 11:09:01 PM
.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….


It's because I bought today (a small amount of BTC).  I'm sorry.  My speculations go the wrong way some 80% of the time (for a few days...).
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 01:20:24 AM
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They (.gov, Mainstream Media, WEF, etc.) are gaslighting us, guys.

Gaslighting is an especially nasty form of lying, where the liars try to make it look like the victim is at fault or even insane.  It is insidious, and they use psychological trickery, it's quite advanced the progress that has been made in propaganda.

Stock futures are down hard tonight.  The investor classes are now awake to the fact that inflation is nowhere near as low as 8.6%...  Job losses are incoming, wages are stagnant in our inflationary environment.  Whatever gains in wages that come will not nearly keep up with the current inflation, and might not even come close should inflation get worse.  It will almost surely get worse.

Many assets are at risk as well.  Home values will likely start down as mortgage rates go up.  Homes have already shot up in price (as have rents).

Assets and wages are going down.  Living expenses are going up.

And typically what happens AFTER bad inflation is a crash.  Typically very ugly.  25% unemployment level depressions seem to occur once in a lifetime (Fourth Turning).

And they are looking at war.....


So what to do?  

First, debt may look good in an inflationary epoch, but the banks will cotton on to that very soon and index interest rates on loans (bankers are not stupid), STAY OUT OF DEBT to the extant you can.  

Second, BTC seems to be the only "crypto" worth a damn (and I have looked at various "Alts" in some detail), so yes I would HODL BTC and I will be buying (poco-a-poco) more.  Still, I have not become convinced that BTC is invincible, that a .gov attack of one nasty sort or another could severely damage BTC despite it's many strengths.  I know and understand this is not a popular view here at W.O.  All I can really suggest is that over-concentration in one asset is way riskier that I would certainly do.

Third, my moniker here suggests that I hold gold.  Everyone should consider owning some physical gold, and keep it carefully hidden.  Cash too.  If you have a solid small business, great.

Fourth, there are tons of websites about "preparation", Plan Bs, diversification into non-traditional assets, etc.  Most folks here no doubt have looked into some of this in some detail.  Preparation, I have found through these many years, is a complex topic, it is also expensive. Many family members of a "prepper" may object, that can cause its own set of problems.  Preparation is wildly different for each person, depending on a huge range of factors, all of them interrelated and uncertain...  

Uncertainty is a big problem too, for who knows what will happen?  I sure don't.  I have many doubts about everything.  I have no idea what will happen in the future, what pandemics are next, what Klaus Schwab or Bill Gates or Nancy Pelosi will try next.  NO ONE knows what will happen.

In the past several weeks I have become more convinced that we have relatively little time left to get ready for a very rough storm.  Keep your heads down.  Lower your risks.  Get going on protecting yourself and your legacy.  Think long-term.

/rant


edited
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2022, 11:20:27 PM
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Thank you for the short punchy note proudhon.  Nice and to the point.

*   *   *

Aleks Svetski often writes very interesting stuff.  In his latest article (link below) he rolls several nice themes all together.  

-- Past, present and future
-- The Bible, the Vedic Samhitas and the Tao Te Ching
-- Fiat and lies...
-- “show don’t tell”
-- Bitcoin vs. shitcoin

Please don't miss the image of "The Helth Ministers"!  <--- [A fine example of a "Double Sic"]

A short passage I much enjoyed:

"Bitcoin is like the Old Testament God, in that it is a consequential god. There is no free lunch, nor ignorance of sin or error. You pay the price for mistakes, but if you heed them and adapt, you shall find that “God is good.”"

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-shows-you-not-tell-you
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2022, 05:54:26 PM
Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

for anyone of us in the USA (you know, land of the "free") a government ban would certainly stop almost all of us in their tracks. even if youre not kyc'd anywhere, use tor, decentralized exchanges etc i would wager they would find out anyway. maybe if you live totally off the grid and never go near civilization it could be done but thats not for me. call me a wimp or whatever, i need modern society to live comfortably. especially modern medicine.

understand: i HATE kyc and the government snooping in our business to the point they just hoover all info they can to store and analyze  for "security/terrorism/etc" purposes even when its not currently useful. as they can always make some law in the future and look back at all that collected data to retroactively get you on some law that doesnt even exist right now. 

look, i will mess with a lot of things but one entity i wont mess with is the irs. they have NO sense of humor. makes me glad i did not hide my btc gains even before the irs targeted it. call me a wimp but thats what we here in the USA need to do to exist in peace.

bleh.


Yeah, that's pretty much the way I feel too.  It's really none of the business of the intrusive IRS, but not worth fighting.  The law and all.

I hate KYC as well, but went through it in early 2021 to take some of my large gains in BTC.  Declaring my gains and paying the capital gains tax.

*Sigh*
15  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: [Blacklist] of unreliable, 'taint proclaiming' Bitcoin services / exchanges on: June 09, 2022, 05:40:34 PM
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A very useful thread, thanks OP and other repliers.  These facts/policies/thoughts are important because they do indeed cast light on threats to BTC and the philosophy of privacy.  Very important.

*   *   *

*Gemini, my experiences only*

In January 2021 I finally joined Gemini.  I did the whole KYC thing, answered their questions, etc.  I did this because I wanted to sell some of the BTC I had acquired for MUCH cheaper, and so take some gains.  I sold a lot between January and October (2021).

When I applied to get into Gemini, I told them upfront that most of my coins were mixed and/or coinjoined.  I told them that I was not doing illegal things, but valued my privacy.  No drugs, no gambling.  US citizen.  I wanted to sell some BTC to take some gains.

They took me on.  I went on to sell a large percentage of my BTC at those wonderfully high prices in 2021.

Gemini had some questions about the way I was selling (some small amounts a couple of times a week for a few months), they thought I might be cashing out BTC from a business.  I told them no, I was selling that way because I wanted to CA$H IN some BTC and that I was not smart enough to sell at the All Time High, so I was selling over a period of relatively high prices (Jan - Oct 2021).  And Gemini was OK with that.  And as far as I am concerned, Gemini served me well (albeit with KYC and explanations).

16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2022, 02:44:13 AM
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I just noticed at coinmarketcap that BTC has lost LESS of its value vs. almost all of the schnittcoins (other than stables) over the past seven days.  "BTC Dominance" also is a relatively high 44.8% of total crypto value (recently BTC Dominance has been around 41% - 42%).

BTC has performed rather well all things considered.

Just bought some a few hours ago.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 06:05:28 PM
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HUGE volume of BTC transactions, most with fees in the 12 - 15 sats/vB range (though if I needed something sent today I would pay 20+).  All of this started at 12:50 PM ET today.  ~117 blocks JUST to clear what's already stacked up on the blockchain.  Very unusual, I haven't seen anything like this recently.

See:

mempool.space

bitbo.io
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 11, 2022, 02:06:21 AM
Yah, well, I just bought some today as well, I missed the local low of $30,500 though.  But, my short-term speculation record is usually pretty bad.  Almost as bad as proudhon's?   Tongue

Wow.. you must suck really badly if you are comparing your performance to proudhon's performance, especially proudhon's price projections.

On the other hand, most of us already have some pretty good ideas that such donkey-breathed being, aka proudhon, is either a ringer or he has extensive brain-damage (probably a bit of both). .In any event, it would be good to call him age-appropriate names wherever and whenever possible... he get's a lot of scholarly motives (if that is the right name?) from such.. since he is sort of stuck at 12 and a half years.. for some reason? - even though we should not be feeding those kinds of damaged juvenile animals.. it only encourages them to spout out more puzzled pieces of disinformation.. like they are stuck in a time-warp, never got past the 6th grade in terms of calculation skills, and still believes that bitcoin is a baby (believes in santa claus too).. just like them.


I have a long history of short-term speculation going the other way on me right after I buy or sell...  I buy, the price goes down.  Maybe 80% of the time!  Anyone could make short-term money taking the other side of my trade.

Longer term I do better.


proudhon is probably my favorite character here at W.O.  For real.  Though you and the DUDE are close runners-up.   Tongue
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 09:14:44 PM
This guy is an inspiration, his tweet got 36.8k likes within an hour.


https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1523742670044413954?s=21&t=dl6Gs7SRUyvV3fkC22u3ng


Yah, well, I just bought some today as well, I missed the local low of $30,500 though.  But, my short-term speculation record is usually pretty bad.  Almost as bad as proudhon's?   Tongue

More on El Salvador's purchase:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/el-salvador-buys-the-wild-bitcoin-dip-with-500-btc-purchase
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 08, 2022, 06:18:47 PM
When we go sub $30k, who sold at the bottom?  Cry

Who's our next Mindrust?

Dunno but there will be one or even a couple.

The first time that bitcoin crossed this price level (~$34k-ish) to the upside was on 01/02/21. That means that anyone that bought any bitcoin for the first time in the last 17 months and held it is likely underwater, all the while inflation jumped another +15% or so.

That sucks big time. Psychologically, 17 months is a long time for weak hands. (Of course that means that they are still winning vs. stonks with relative losses > 15% during the same period)

I just hope that they have the balls of steel to weather this storm. The tide will turn, and then none of them will be underwater.


Yes, emphasis in above quote mine.

Also:

"Don't sweat the volatility"

-- Bobby Lee (from his 2021 book The Promise of Bitcoin)

HODL, HODL, HODL has always worked so far given a low time preference.
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