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501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2019, 06:16:44 PM
Oh wow.  I stand corrected.

Have never heard of a loss carry back.  

Thank you - you taught me something today.

I withdraw my prior comments.

Your welcome my very gracious friend.  Smiley I learned more than I wanted about the insanely complex tax code as an entrepreneur.

as stated before, my primary objection to the whole goddamned thing



The US Tax Code is a disgrace.  And it hurts entrepreneurship grievously.  And it may get worse if (well, politics is best left unmentioned).  

*   *   *
 
jojo69, you have a message!  I don't comment that much here anymore, mostly lurk.
502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2019, 06:11:43 PM
Just curious, why silver and not gold?

Gold has been a better investment most of the time.


1)  The gold to silver ratio chart highly favors silver

2)  Silver is the most artificially downward rigged commodity on the entire planet in the futures market and the goal is to buy low sell high
 
3)  There's something like 1/4th the amount of above ground silver now as during the 1980's metals bull run while there's twice as much above ground gold since then.  Hard to quantify the exact supply numbers, but they favor a massive silver spike moreso than gold in any type of 'free market'.

4)  To prevent silver from being depleted and disappearing like it's current trajectory, the price will eventually have to go to several hundred dollars an ounce to warrant recycling in things like electronics

5)  In any type of monetary metals revaluation, the west has a huge shortfall in gold with probably somewhere between 0 to 2000 tons only, so would likely attempt to buffer the gold shortfall with silver valued at a high ratio like 10-20:1 instead.

6)  All other things being equal, silver has better fundamentals than gold due to having more use cases.  Commodity money works under the context that if you hoard the entire supply, people somewhere actually need the commodity resource for something and you can ask whatever the market can bear.  Conversely, since Bitcoin is not a real commodity or resource, if you hoard all 21 million the entire planet can just laugh at you and you have no power over anyone or anything.

Whaddayaknow. r0ach does a quotable.



r0ach would have even more bragging rights (for traders) if he had mentioned RHODIUM's three month spike in price, up some 50% since 30 May (from some $2850 per oz to some $4450 today (depending on who's quoting), up over $100 since yesterday):

https://apps.catalysts.basf.com/apps/eibprices/mp/DPCharts.aspx?MetalName=Rhodium%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20&Market=EIB

Rhodium is a platinum group metal, very rare, used in automotive catalysts, searchlights and as the watchface numerals in some Rolex watches. 

You know, in case you care.  :p

Unlike r0ach, I'd rather hold Au over Ag.
503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2019, 02:43:29 AM
...

r0ach HATES crypto, I get that, but his commentary ought to be read by anyone here at W.O. who is over 30 - 35 or so...

Gold just touched $1500, and is at new ATHs in various FIAT$ around the world.

I have always believed in serious diversification.  I HODL BTC (plenty!), and watch it every day.  A pot-watcher.

Nonetheless, gold has 6000 years of proven value.  That IS meaningful.  Whether or not it retains its role into the future as the numeraire of all value assets remains to be seen (of course).  That is why diversification is so important.

NO ONE knows what will happen.  Not Shelby, not r0ach.  But, having an open mind is a great and wonderful thing.
504  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 05, 2019, 01:55:07 AM
...

Chinese Yuan down to 7 / USD, a record low.  Kyle Bass says this has just started:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-04/currency-war-begins-chinese-yuan-crashes-past-7usd-record-low

Asian stocks down hard.  US and German stock futures down hard.  Gold is up a tiny bit.

What will happen in Hong Kong this week?

BTC at +/- $11,400.  No surprise...



Edited for additional info
505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2019, 06:44:18 PM
Gold reacted badly to the news, selling off with rates. Now it's bouncing back to day High.
Bitcoin doesn't give a f.ck.

Anybody noticed it is the first (and first one of a series) FED cut since 2008?
This means it's the first FED easing cycle since Bitcoin came into existence, challenging low interest rates world.

Good luck central Banksters!



Excellent observation.  

Gold has traditionally done well in low interest (and lowering interest) environments.

It will be very interesting to follow BTC price in the weeks to come.  It will, after all, be easy to remember today's price ($10k) when Powell and Company cut the Fed Funds Rate.
506  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: VPN that accept Bitcoin as payment? on: July 31, 2019, 04:16:01 PM
...

I have been very happy with NordVPN for years now.  They take Bitcoin.  They are apparently a pretty large VPN service and have servers in a lot of countries.

Coming at you for "Germany" now. 

Smiley
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 29, 2019, 02:15:37 AM
Blocks are nice and empty at the moment if anyone wants to consolidate.  Just had a 20 sat transaction clear in first block I think.

20 sat/b is way too high for next block inclusion.
Thinking about a post on how to calculate optimal fees and stuff.
Every sat count!
Keeping stacking Satoshi!

There are at least 3 or 4 tx fee estimators.

The Bitcoin Core QT wallet includes one, but it's never been very accurate. Electrum has a couple of better ones built in too.

The best reference I used for the past several months, maybe since a couple of years already is this one: https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/api/v1/fees/recommended

Currently:
Code:
fastestFee 10
halfHourFee 4
hourFee 2

If I'm not in a hurry, I use the hour fee. Or somewhere in between those numbers. I rarely use anything higher than the fastest fee.


Very alert there guys.  You just saved me some money as I just consolidated.  I went with the suggested regular fee at two of my wallets, fees are very low (paid approx. 3 sats/byte).  Let's see how long it takes them clear.

Dabs, you helped me once long ago, thanks!  Thanks to all of you!

Smiley


EDIT: in just 5 minutes or so, both transactions went through.
508  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Tipping Point: Kroger, Starbucks May Ignite Retail Crypto on: July 28, 2019, 04:12:09 PM
Fact check:

Starbucks is a premium coffee chain and frankly how many people drink their coffee on a daily basis? So Startbucks accepting bitcoin is not a big news in terms of adoption!

I disagree. When a global franchise like Startbucks make bold decisions like this, you get a ripple affect on the smaller retail industry, because they look at the bigger franchises for guidance. On January 9, 2014, Overstock.com became the first major retailer to start accepting bitcoin as payments for its goods and this caused a flood of smaller retailers, who followed their example.

This decision is also crucial, because a lot of people criticised Bitcoin in the early days for not being cost affective enough to buy something as inexpensive as a cup of coffee. We are now showing the world that Bitcoin matured enough, that you can buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin now.  Wink

Haters gonna hate, you know. The fact that you'll be able to buy a coffee inexpensive and in a not-too-long period of time is indeed something worth telling, but the haters will clearly ignore that.

On the other hand, Starbucks can do "magic". People learn from each other. And when one will see how easily did another pay with Bitcoin, his views may change, he may start ignoring the haters and follow the facts (and start using Bitcoin). This will happen in addition to what you said about smaller businesses copying what Starbucks do.


Yes, NF, that's how I would look at it as well.  People in line at Starbucks would watch someone paying with BTC, and be curious.  Some would then go on to join the BTC Community.  At some point, we hope, enough people would learn (via Starbucks or whatever other merchants taking BTC) what crypto is all about.

Then, we hope, BTC reaches critical mass and takes off.  It still could take some time, but we may not be too far off from seeing mass adoption.
509  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is better? Using one storage option or using several methods? - Bitcoin. on: July 28, 2019, 04:02:39 PM
...

Once you reach a point that your BTC are worth more than what you would like to lose......

So I store my BTC on both hardware wallets (85%, for longer-term HODL and just 15% for shorter term ease of spending in online wallets & flexibility). 

The online wallets offer a nice flexibility when traveling, you do not need to carry a HW device.
510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 27, 2019, 04:54:25 AM
Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment.  PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, buried, gone.  

Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level.   No one can raise prices in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is not going anywhere.  

Your post is completely nonsensical and is like a college freshman talking about theory without actually knowing how things work in practice.  If someone owes $300k for a mortgage and deflation occurs, that amount due may now be equivalent to $600k instead through deflation.  One way or another they're going to default even if you make it illegal to default.  Everyone and their mom is either going to walk away from those loans or be unable to pay and all banks collapse.

A college freshman (the brain of HairyMaclairy) would look at deflation and think it's good for banks because their relative profits from loans should increase.  In reality, they take a bath on every single loan and die.  When the banks implode, fiat then has a value of zero and Exter's Pyramid takes play where the value of all assets on earth is simply divided by the number of above ground ounces of physical gold and silver.  Metals win in either deflationary or inflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is useless in deflationary collapse and it's value would be nothingness.



Gold did very well in the deflation of the 1930s.

While gold would certainly be hit in a stock market crash (as everyone would need $ liquidity), it is likely that gold would drop in price less than most other investment assets.

realr0ach is correct that the banks would be in grave danger in a deflationary environment.  Debts are extremely toxic in deflation.  Not to mention derivatives...  We have not had a real deflation in the USA since the 1930s.  Many of the economic rules we (mostly) believe in get turned around 180 degrees in a deflation (look at the perverse effects of NIRP, where you make money by borrowing it in Europe.)

*   *   *

It is, of course, possible that BTC would drop LESS than stocks (etc.) in a crash or extended bearish environment.  BTC has not been around long enough for us to know what would happen in a market event like 2008-2009.
511  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Rogue Wave on: July 26, 2019, 06:03:10 PM
Posting again as an impartial messenger.

Quote from: Shelby
I sent this in email to Coins.ph’s support. I think this addresses Wind_FURY’s latest posts in this thread. Someone with a high IQ would have already deduced the following from my prior statements, so consider the following to be remedial education for the dimwitted.

Quote




The point is that if you are holding your BTC in SegWit addresses that begin with a 3 instead of Satoshi's protocol addresses that begin with 1, then all your BTC is going to be taken by the miners as donations if Craig Wright fulfills his promise to restore Satoshi’s protocol. You will not have any notice nor time to react. By the time you hear about it, your BTC will be gone. Poof. Gone. Note BSV is apparently a red herring and is not Satoshi’s immutable protocol that will be restored.

Read these threads very carefully:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147618.msg51584165#msg51584165

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5157964.0;all

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5157901.0;all

Note the plan to eventually back Libra with Satoshi’s protocol Bitcoin is not known to the public at this time. It is a speculation on how the world is going to be reshaped (eventually hyperinflation of the dollar after the strong dollar vortex) and who is really in control and why they created Bitcoin in the first place. Bitcoin and Libra are not about what overly idealistic (snowflake fantasies) young people think it is about. Only dimwitted idiots still do not understand that a 1 MB block size kicks everyone except the global elite off of legacy protocol Bitcoin eventually.

Satan (and extremely powerful men without any other goals to challenge them) is insatiable thus wants to own your soul. He’s not satisfied with just owning all the tangible resources of the earth. Also humanity refuses to follow the teachings of Jesus and thus desires to be enslaved, so the power vacuum of slavery must be fulfilled by someone.


I would be curious about "Rogue Wave" opinions about "Native" SegWit addresses (Bech32 addresses) like the below:

bc1qwqdg6squsna38e46795at95yu9atm8azzmyvckulcc7kytlcckxswvvzej

bc1qmrmfs07jnngy8f69sln9p7lpv5dmg0lfxhdfrz

I am also curious as to why some of those "bc1qxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" addresses are so much longer than others.  Both above addresses from Block 587155.

[edited for minor typo]
512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 26, 2019, 05:01:37 PM
Disregard shitcoins.  Acquire physical silver.


Agree re shitcoins other than change to: Acquire physical gold and/or physical platinum. 

Silver requires too much space.  Only reason to hold more than 1 kg or so of Ag is if you think TEOTWAWKI is coming...  For holding larger wealth, Au is best.  Pt is also good, especially if you are an optimist, if you think the world economy will continue to grow.

It's OK to HDOL 1% (or more, depending) of net assets in BTC.
513  Economy / Exchanges / Re: ⚡️Instant, fully automatic exchange with Lightning Network!⚡️ on: July 23, 2019, 04:16:16 AM
...

Fairly recently I used FixedFloat to exchange an Alt for BTC.  My four or so transactions were very small.  But everything went fine, once there was a minor glitch and I had to ask for their customer service to help me.  They resolved the issue in some 30 - 45 minutes.

Recommended.
514  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Reliable BTC mixers. Taint analysis tools available? on: July 21, 2019, 06:22:06 AM
Anyway, who left is reliable now?  I do note that ChipMixer now seems to be the most trusted.  But I also note that various other mixers have had problems.

Who's left that with whom people have had good experiences?
I may be biased, but I believe ChipMixer is the by far the most trusted right now. BestMixer got seized by the government and BitBlender exit scammed afterwards (with the excuse that they were scarred of being arrested). I honestly don't know who else to trust after what happened.

BestMixer seized: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146123.0
BitBlender exit scam: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5153756


TryNinja, yes I was around here lurking to observe BestMixer get seized over there in The Netherlands.  I actually DID use them once (before their bust), and found their service to be just fine when I did use it.  For me, that was too bad they got busted, as the service did work for me.  Ah well, one less mixer.

I never did use BitBlender, but did note that they gave a very limited amount of time for customers to get their BTC out before they closed up shop.  It DID seem scammy, but I have no facts, and again, I never used them.

But, your above two examples show that the number of mixers is declining...

Finally, I did use ChipMixer once (I believe some two years ago), and found that it was confusing for me, but I was able to move the "chips" around to where I wanted them.  I forget the technique they used, and that experience some two years ago is still a little hazy for me.

I have noted in discussions of ChipMixer that their mixing technique is quite different than most other mixers, it does LOOK different.  Perhaps I should give them another try with a little BTC and see if I can get more comfortable with their method.

Thank you for passing along your response.
515  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: The Top 5 Best Crypto Cold Storage Devices on: July 21, 2019, 06:10:09 AM
...

Over the years I have used a Ledger Nano, a Ledger Nano S and the Trezor Model One.  I liked all of them. 

(I also used, and liked, a very early small Ledger device they no longer carry at their website.)

But, I have used my Ledger Nano S for perhaps a year now, and really like it a lot.  It took a little bit to teach myself how to use it (I have no friends around here into cryptos), but I, a non-technical guy, was able to figure it out.  And I also was able to create another account for an "Alt" that I experimented with.

I had no beef with the Trezor other than the firmware update was a little scary, but it went through OK.  I have NOT tried the newer Trezor Model T, but I would imagine that it would work well too.

I have not used the other hardware wallets in OP's article.

For me, I am happiest with the Ledger Nano S.  And as I am reluctant to monkey around with Bluetooth, I am not likely to get the Nano X, their newest.
516  Economy / Exchanges / Good results trading an Alt for BTC with FixedFloat Exchange on: July 21, 2019, 05:59:00 AM
...

Some time ago I bought an "Alt" that later on I wanted to change over to BTC.  But, I wanted to use a without KYC/AML requirements, as I have concerns that KYC/AML information is being stolen and sold on the Dark Web (ah, no proof of that, but I have seen persistent reports).

I then used FixedFloat, a small exchange I noticed recently.  I did a few exchanges, starting small as I did not know them, but eventually (after some 5 trades) traded all of the Alt for BTC.

The service worked excellently except I did have to work with their friendly customer service to straighten out one trade that went awry, but they made me good in about 30 minutes.

It's important to note that my trades were small, but the rates were very reasonable.

Recommended.
517  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Ledger Live now supports Bech32 addresses! on: July 21, 2019, 05:51:06 AM
Glad to see Ledger have finally caught up with Native SegWit, but in all honesty, it's pretty disappointing it has taken them this long.

Trezor still doesn't support receiving to native SegWit addresses in their web wallet. I'm surprised that Ledger has introduced it before Trezor, but it seems that they haven't tested it well enough.


I have a Ledger Nano S that I would like to work with to be able to work with native SegWit (bc1xxxxxx...) addresses, but I have not been able to see anyone above actually demonstrate that they have done it and how.

I do not use Electrum with my Nano S.

Would anyone please walk us through, step-by-step, how to open the new account on the device?

That would be appreciated not just by me but likely by many others here.  Thank you!
518  Economy / Service Announcements / Reliable BTC mixers. Taint analysis tools available? on: July 21, 2019, 05:39:32 AM
...

After a long time away from bitcointalk, I am back.  And it has been an exciting time while I was traveling, having our grandchild, moving, etc.

Bitcoin mixers were always one of my favorite topics here.  I was a for a long time in the bimixer.io campaign, I was advertising for them not only for payments but because I also used their service a lot with great success.  I did note that they left the BTC mixing business for what seemed sudden reasons that I for one did not fully understand.

Anyway, who left is reliable now?  I do note that ChipMixer now seems to be the most trusted.  But I also note that various other mixers have had problems.

Who's left that with whom people have had good experiences?

*   *   *

On a somewhat similar topic, does anyone provide a free taint analysis tool (like blockchain.info did years ago)?  Such a tool would be one test of how well a mixer breaks the link between our sending them BTC and what we would get.  That tool from blockchain.info was very nice.


Thank you!  I came here years ago as a complete beginner, and found many decent people who helped me along in the Bitcoin Ecosystem.
519  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / BCH just too off like a rocket on: November 02, 2018, 06:57:00 PM

BCH up a spike of 9.6% or so as I write, but I could find no news.

Too bad I only have some $20 worth...
520  Economy / Economics / Re: Germany recognized the bitcoin on: September 14, 2018, 04:11:07 PM
...

Last time I looked at coinatmradar.com I saw no Bitcoin ATMs located in Germany.  "BTMs" might help make ordinary Germans more aware of Bitcoin and more interested in exploring the BTC Ecosystem.

Are there any plans to put BTMs in Germany?  That would be a nice step as well (especially if merchants start accepting BTC).
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