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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2024, 08:42:45 PM
I received this e-mail from Kraken today.

Quote
Hello Xxx,

We have received notification from the Trustee that you have selected Kraken as your preferred exchange for receiving funds related to the Mt. Gox distribution. Thank you for choosing Kraken.

We are confirming that your account is in good standing at this time, and there is no further action to take at this time with Kraken. We have informed the Trustee accordingly. We will share further information as and when we receive it.

If you have any issues, our team of specialists are available to help 24/7 via live chat, phone or email by submitting a support ticket. Please mention Mt.Gox for priority handling.

Thank you for choosing Kraken.

The Kraken Team

I'm not holding my breath, but the btc pay-out might actually happen sooner rather than later.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2024, 08:31:35 PM
Iím also firmly against sell ladders. Itís beyond obvious at this point that Bitcoin moves in a 4-year cycle. I donít think thereís many people left that deny this. Thereís never been an easier asset to trade (and I donít trade it). You just buy in early 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027; and you sell in late 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029Ö Do this and youíll make a fortune. You could also just DCA until you want to cash out. Setting up sell ladders thoughÖ In what world or with what backtesting has this been considered a good idea?

That kind of sound like a buy/sell ladder too though, just that your example is time dependable rather than price...

I get what you mean though. However, setting up a sell ladder might not be too bad of an idea. Let's say you predict the price to reach a certain number, a sell ladder around that number could make sense. Each to their own I guess.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 10, 2024, 12:46:16 AM
Seems the chain spammers have finally run out of money, or I guess achieved their goals. Just to remind everybody again, the solution to high fees, is high fees.



I never really cared about the mempool fees until I started to running a lightning node. Now I keep a tab open at all times to monitor the mempool when I'm using the computer.

January was quite a rough month, considering the mempool fees. I had two channels force closed, costing me roughly 200k sats.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 10, 2024, 12:16:58 AM
I know I've said it before, but as a creditor myself I have no plan to sell any coins once I get them.
however i will dump the bcash_lol pretty much instantly

Of course, that goes without saying  Wink
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2024, 11:51:30 PM
In my opinion, the distribution of the MtGox coins will be a nothingburger.

There are 140k btc to be distributed among like 40k creditors. Thinking all those creditors will immediately sell all their coins is just silly. Some will, some won't, but definitely not all.

Unlike OgNasty, who thinks all of them will be sold immediately, let's make an assumption that half of them will hit the market in the near future. Let's also make the assumption that they will evenly get sold during the span of a month. That's 2.2k (65k/30) coins per day. 2.2k btc per day is nothing. For reference, the net inflow yesterday for the btc ETF's was 10k btc.

I know I've said it before, but as a creditor myself I have no plan to sell any coins once I get them.

Selling anything right now would just be silly, we are in the beginning of a bull market ffs.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2024, 09:10:57 PM
Today it's approximately 69:04:20 (dd:hh:mm) until the next halving.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2024, 11:06:42 AM
Just in case somebody interested in guessing an airport?

Tea price around 1.2$ which is a bit high according to me.

How much is price you find at airports?


Photo credit: WatChe

Islamabad international Airport?

Airport prices are ridiculous. I don't know about tea, but a beer in my country's largest airport is like $14 or so.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2024, 02:10:19 PM
Happy new year frens! 2024 is going to be great.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2023, 11:41:01 PM


Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO

The repayment consist of both a fiat and a btc claim. For the fiat claim, you could either chose a bank account, or your PayPal account. Only those who chose PayPal have gotten part of their fiat claim paid today.

No one has received their btc claim yet, so any price movement has nothing to do with today's fiat repayment.


It remains to be seen what the mtgox folks are going to do with their coins.  Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.  I imagine many others will probably feel the same way.  I always considered those coins lost, so having them back will probably result in me cashing out immediately in order to have additional cash.  It wouldn't surprise me if a large majority of those coins are sold for similar reasons.  Whether you stayed in Bitcoin and went on to stack, or you got out of Bitcoin, I'd imagine you'll be happy to get back dollars and not coins.  Everyone's circumstance is of course different, but that's my thinking on it.

I also considered those coins lost for a very long time, but I sure won't sell any once I finally receive them.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2023, 09:16:38 AM
While we wait for the "tearing down of the 48K wall".... here is an update of my LN Node....

While I wasn't able to push my LN node above 1,000,000,000 Sats (10BTC). Came very close, at one stage hitting 924,288,114 Sats. Currently sitting at 912,288,113 sat. Still have 2-3 BTC to throw at it... But was caught out by this mempool...

Finally had a full month to analysis the impact of doubling the capacity of my LN Node...

Current Capacity: 912,288,113 sat
Current Channel Count: 156

November Routing Stats
Number of Transaction: 7,298
Total Amount Routed: 1,042,341,115 Sats (10.42BTC)
Total Fees Collected: 25,094 Sats
Channel Opening Cost: Lots
Channel Closing Cost: Too Much!!! (one forced close cost me about 38,000 Sats)

September Routing Stats (Before Push)
Number of Transaction: 4,114
Total Amount Routed: 631,392,125 Sats (6.31BTC)
Total Fees Collected: 25,094 Sats

This month is looking busy.... averaging 320 transactions and 1,200 Sats collected a day

NOTE: lnd doesn't do RBF, but CPFP, which is a form for fee bumping... was able to use it to confirm the old transactions that were stuck for months. Downside, lnd will not initiate the channels after a certain period of time (14 Days). Channel needs to be forced closed, it will automatically assign a fee that will include it in the next few blocks, resulting in much higher fees per vByte.

Still not profitable (again, this was never meant to be a way to accumulate more Bitcoins), still more to do, still need to weed out some channels that are stagnant, but very hard to do anything with mempool being this congested! Well not hard, just expensive!


Thanks for sharing!

I'm also running a LN node (goblin-no.de), and we have a channel together. My node is turning 1 year next month, but including the time of my old node, I've been running a LN node for 18+ months now.

I believe you are selling your inbound too cheap. I have a dynamic fee structure, so if the sats is all on my side, I have a low fee, and if it's all remote, the fees are high (all automatically handled of course). I also try to re-balance my sink channels (normally public channels such as Bitfinex, Kraken, Nicehash etc) so i can be a reliable routing node.

My node has a total capacity of ~16 BTC with 103 channels. So I have less channels than you, but girther ones I guess.

I'm well in profit by now, and the hardware investment has finally payed off due to the recent rise in BTC/USD.

My last 30 days P%L is as follows (including fees for force-closed channels)



323k sats in profit over the last month is OK I guess.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 08, 2023, 06:37:38 PM
What's up WO folks.

I haven't frequent this corner of the internet for quite some time. The spamming of ChartBuddy sure doesn't help. He need to shut up...

I fricking did it though, amboss.space rank my lightning node as #1



The node has a total capacity of ~17 BTC, and is routing on average 0.5 BTC per day. Happy routing!

What kind of earning do you get with that size?

And how much of your coin stays in the pot?

I am curious 👀 because I want to get an ides how easy it will be for bitcoin to scale rewards down the road.

The earnings are ridiculously low, considering the btc I stake.

I did try to maximize my earnings for a while. By that, I provided liquidity to the LOOP channel, which provides a lightning/on-chain swap service at a very favorable fee for the node who open to them.

In order to do that, I constantly have to open a channel with LOOP, since they close the channel once it's drained on their side. This activity would quickly make me run out of inbound liquidity unless I can get lightning to on-chain btc at a cheaper price than LOOP. For that I used Nicehash and Kraken. The increased activity with Kraken got me audited though. They questioned me about the source of funds, even though I've been a customer of theirs for close to a decade.

During this time, my earnings was close to 300k sats ($80) per month. Now, after I've stopped this aggressive channel opening with LOOP, it's closer to 100k sats ($27) per month. 6-8 months more at this rate and my hardware investment will pay off.

My node is fairly balanced, so out of the 17 BTC capacity it has, 8 BTC or so is provided by me. So, like I said, the earnings are ridiculously low. It's self-hosted though. I don't need to trust my funds with any 3rd part.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 07, 2023, 10:44:00 PM
What's up WO folks.

I haven't frequent this corner of the internet for quite some time. The spamming of ChartBuddy sure doesn't help. He need to shut up...

I fricking did it though, amboss.space rank my lightning node as #1



The node has a total capacity of ~17 BTC, and is routing on average 0.5 BTC per day. Happy routing!
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2023, 10:38:45 PM
To contribute something a bit more on topic (sort of), "whale eater" loaded is going back to court tomorrow. A thread titled "@RogerVer lets make a deal. At least 60k, my BTU for your BTC." was necro-bumped with some interesting revelations that potentially explain why loaded backed out of the deal. It's a doozy in bitcoin history.

Bumping this thread now that loaded is set to be sentenced tomorrow (see: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-blockchain-hacking-arrests-93a4cb29)

Roger was lucky Zhong didn't follow up (he probably got scared because of this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6bcccp/loadeds_coins_trace_back_to/) - otherwise he would have ended up double rekt.

The only article about this is at WSJ and that's behind a paywall (fuck you, Bezos!)

I remember Loaded from back in the day, now I'm curious to find out wtf happened with him.



I also remember Loaded from back in the days, posting in this thread.

Him being arrested is kind of old news, but him getting sentenced is news to me. Here's a couple of articles of him getting busted -- not behind a paywall.
https://www.wired.com/story/silk-road-bitcoin-seizure-james-zhong/
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/us-unmasks-hacker-who-stole-50-000-bitcoins-from-silk-road/

I remember discussing this seizure a few years back. Here's the original post I think. Linking to a page that U.S. Justice Department seized ~69k BTC.

My response to that was here, suspecting that the seizure was related to one of Ross' associates. Man, was I wrong.

I wonder what sentence he'll get. Giving up 50k+ BTC should be enough though, damn.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2023, 11:07:01 PM
this clown doesn't stop at all.... Grin Grin Grin


Just seeing this tool makes me upset. I know, it shouldn't -- he's insignificant, an impostor, and all that shit. But f*ck, he really grinds my gear..

I haven't checked this for well over a year, but looking at coinmarketcap, they rank BSV at 67. How is that even possible!? There are tens of thousands of shitcoins out there, and BSV might be the shittiest one of them all. I'm baffled.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 31, 2023, 10:26:21 PM
So much work...I am getting too old for this s-t.
Can retire now, no question about it, but my dad's health really deteriorated after he retired, don't really want to go that route.

Men typically take it (stopping regular work) much harder, need at least a significant hobby or a couple of those, I hear.
I would have picked golf, maybe, but it is so darned hot here in the summer.
Mining is also becoming so industrialized that it is not much fun to small-mine.
Maybe nodes or lightning nodes?

In any case, bitcoin is on the mend, that's all that matter...in the long run.
Daily fluctuations are...fluctuating.

Cheers, WO!

Seriously, just retire and don't look back.

If you're looking for a bitcoin related hobby, I can really recommend running a lightning node. I've been running a lightning node for about a year now (after reading about it here), and it's been great fun. I've learnt a lot, both about linux and about the lightning protocol itself.

I'm on my 3rd node now. My first node was on a Raspberry Pi, just try it out. My 2nd node was on some better hardware, but I eventually had to close it down due to some security issues. On my current node node I've decided to step it up a notch, to see if I can run it in a reasonable profitable manner.

Here's my node



My node has a public capacity of 12.6 btc and is ranked #26.

Regarding profits. I don't know, running a lightning node likely won't make you rich... My profits for the past 30 days is 250k sats, or 0.0025btc. But if I can help the Lightning Network to succeed by running my own node, I'm happy with that.

Oh, and please visit my meme webpage goblin-no.de, because I really like corn Wink.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2022, 02:23:32 AM
What's up Wall Observers,

I'd like to reach out to my Lightning Network channel peers.

Due to the recent revelation of the data breach of LastPass, I have decided to shut down my node. I'm a customer of theirs, and even though I'm confident my password is strong enough to withstand any brute-force attempt, I've decided to change everything I had stored with them. Without disclosing too much, that affects my lightning node as well.

Oh well, before shutting down, let's share some statistics.



My node has a total capacity of 10.76 btc among 110 channels.

The node has been up for 193 days. During those days I've routed 150 BTC, and the profit is 730k sats (0.0073 BTC). On average I've routed 1 BTC per day over the past 90 days. My record in one day is 2.6 BTC and over 1,000 routing events.

Anyway. Once I'm all set, I'll start a new node and open a new channel to my fellow WO LN-operators (you guys know who you are)
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 22, 2022, 01:12:29 AM
Have you turned a decent profit doing it?
No, not really.

I don't think any Lightning Node Operator is doing any serious money... Most of us node-runners are just happy btc-maxi/plebs trying to learn/improve/strengthen the network.

Anyway, let's look at the numbers.
My routing fees totaled  227k sats
My re-routing costs was -130k sats
My open-channel-fees was -9k sats

That sums up to 88k. But taken into consideraion the on-chain transactions from my WalletOfSatoshi/Kraken/NiceHash accounts during this time it's more like 70k sats. 70k sats is at todays USD/BTC rate roughly worth 16 USD.

These numbers are without hardware/electricity costs as well, so no, I'm not really doing any money out of this...
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2022, 10:59:09 PM
One month in with my new lightning node, apparently I'm doing something right...



I have had a total of ~5k routing events after a month of running, transferring a total of 9.83 btc.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2022, 10:39:22 PM


Where the dude @Ö.

Merit worthy game

Roest
Antwerp
https://goo.gl/maps/u7eoXVTDHXLWbxXt8



Your Picture:


Just in front of the
Museum aan de Stroom

Always impressed fillippone guesses these right.
Maybe I should get out more.
Maybe ,fillipone has been on several tour or has read alot far more than I can ever imagine. Antwerp,55miles north, world largest diamond mine.
Came late though
Sandra_

Nah, I think our Italian Stallion is a pro at Google Image Search.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 17, 2022, 08:18:30 PM
I wonder how much of these failures are related to TOR. Also, given the fact TOR is still being DDoS'd since Jun 9th...

I don't think any of those failures are because of TOR btw. The failures are all on my side. I don't have enough sats on my side to complete the forwards to you. I'm just missing out of a lot of routing events with you because I don't have the funds on my side of the channel.

I just meant to point out that there is a strong demand to route sats your way, which is a good thing I guess.
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