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1  Local / Trading dan Spekulasi / Mengenal Lebih Dalam Tentang Konsep 1% Tekhnikal 99% Psikologis Dalam Trading on: July 04, 2023, 05:39:18 PM
Selamat Malam semuanya, Assalamu alaikum. Ini adalah topik pertama saya dan melihat bahwasannya konsep pada thread yang menekankan tentang psikologis kurang begitu ada. Akhirnya saya mencoba untuk mengulas tentang konsep ini dengan tekhnik yang saya pakai memakai konsep 1% candlestick atau 1% tekhnikal 99% Psikologis.

Konsep ini dikenal pada tahun 2000 an dengan master guru yang memulainya bernama trader Unyil. Mungkin beberapa master disini sempat ada yang mengenal dengan master guru yang satu ini. Pada topik ini saya akan menekankan bahwasannya konsep dasar pada trading bukanlah berpatokan pada Tekhnikal analisa. Namun lebih mendalam tentang konsep psikologis dan Money Management.

1% Tekhnikal

merujuk pada aspek ini, tekhnik yang dipakai pada trading adalah seperti analisis grafik, indikator teknikal, strategi perdagangan, dan pemahaman tentang pasar. Ini mencakup pengetahuan tentang bagaimana membaca grafik harga, mengidentifikasi pola dan sinyal perdagangan, mengatur stop loss dan take profit, serta menerapkan indikator teknikal untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan. Meskipun aspek ini penting, konsep "1%" menggambarkan bahwa itu hanya memiliki dampak kecil pada kesuksesan jangka panjang dibandingkan dengan faktor psikologis.

Di sisi lain, 99% Psikologis menekankan pentingnya aspek psikologis dalam trading. Faktor psikologis mencakup kendali emosi, disiplin, ketekunan, manajemen risiko, dan kepercayaan diri. Trader yang mampu mengendalikan emosi negatif seperti ketakutan dan keserakahan, menjaga disiplin dalam mengikuti rencana perdagangan, dan tetap tenang dalam situasi yang sulit memiliki peluang lebih besar untuk mencapai kesuksesan jangka panjang.

Quote
Kesuksesan dalam trading bergantung pada kemampuan trader untuk mengelola emosi mereka dengan baik. Misalnya, ketika pasar bergerak melawan posisi mereka, trader yang tidak memiliki kendali emosional yang baik mungkin cenderung panik dan keluar dari posisi terlalu cepat, sehingga mencegah mereka mendapatkan potensi keuntungan yang lebih besar jika mereka tetap sabar. Selain itu, keserakahan dapat mendorong trader untuk mengambil risiko yang tidak perlu atau melampaui batas toleransi risiko mereka.

Manajemen risiko atau biasa kita kenal sebagai Money Management (MM) juga merupakan bagian penting dari aspek psikologis. Trader yang baik memahami pentingnya menetapkan stop loss untuk membatasi kerugian dan mengelola ukuran posisi dengan bijaksana agar tidak terjebak dalam perdagangan yang berlebihan. Mereka juga memiliki kesadaran akan risiko dan mengelola ekspektasi mereka dengan realistis.

Selain itu, kepercayaan diri dan ketekunan dalam menghadapi tantangan juga sangat penting. Trader yang memiliki kepercayaan diri yang kuat dalam strategi mereka dan tetap bertekad untuk belajar dan berkembang memiliki peluang lebih besar untuk mencapai kesuksesan jangka panjang dalam trading.

Quote
Dalam konsep "1%" penekanan diberikan pada pentingnya mengembangkan keterampilan psikologis yang diperlukan untuk menghadapi tekanan emosional, mengendalikan impuls perdagangan, dan tetap tenang dalam situasi yang sulit. Meskipun pemahaman tentang aspek teknis perdagangan penting, faktor psikologis memiliki dampak yang jauh lebih besar.



2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Without money, the knowledge is a waste on: June 25, 2023, 02:31:51 PM
I don't agree with the tittle,most of the case is that if you don't have knowledge you're money would be wasted,because you are always get failed result from different types of strategy to earn money because you don't have knowledge,but if you have knowledge even if you only have small amount of money you can use the knowledge to earn money.

I don't think that can be said to be completely wrong either, because to achieve the knowledge we want also requires money, even though it's a little, we still need money. I think it's impossible if we don't spend even the smallest amount of money.

Because actually money is the initial foundation for achieving goals, I think it's nonsense if they learn to get more knowledge without spending money. If we go to school logically, we also need money to study.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying cheap is best formula on: June 24, 2023, 09:33:17 PM
I don't think there is a specific period for trading and this period is good as well to buy and invest. Now that Bitcoin is still wavering to go up, it is the best time to invest. OP if nothing is lost then why companies fold up and some even removed workers from the companies. There is risk in Bitcoin and with that in the process one might loss coins if care is not taking.

If anyone is buying Bitcoin now and store it for years to come even just two years and if the person buy  and store enough before 2026, the person will make enough benefits from the investment. According to the op topic the best time is now and do not procrastination again, put your dreams I'm action so that you will be smiling when the price finally rise to the peaks.

We should also really understand the basic principles of investment, especially in bitcoin. Uncertain price movements and it is still uncertain whether price movements will continue to experience a bearish trend or turn into a bullish one.

Of course there are many things that need to be considered and not all of them are solely thought about the benefits that can be obtained because we are investors who must be aware of all the risks that can occur, even if it's from bitcoin.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Take advantage of the price fall. on: June 24, 2023, 09:28:29 PM
Generally I believe that people are getting better at managing their portfolio and not letting the market play with them emotionally. I think I only speak for this community based on what I see in how people post. It's a lot less "is this the end?" Or "will bitcoin recover?" And a lot more DCA and buy the dip enthusiasm, which is definitely the right way to go. It's nice to see!

Based on an experience, this is something that must be considered far ahead, because as we know, no one knows for sure! where is the movement going, and this is very good because most of them have thought about how to find opportunities from bitcoin price movements (especially when the market is Bearish trend).
5  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: June 24, 2023, 09:18:37 PM
In my opinion, it is unlikely that everyday transactions will predominantly occur on-chain. Most on-chain transactions will likely be conducted by large institutions that will contribute to second layer solutions. In situations where there is a high transaction volume, priority will probably be given to big companies most of the time. Conversely, during periods of low volume, regular individuals can consolidate their inputs and the like.

This is merely speculation. I cannot accurately predict what will happen, I'm just guessing. What I do know for certain is that a future where every single transaction is conducted on-chain is just illusory dream. I agree that 1 MB isn't much, but the same can be said for limits such as 4, 8, 16, or 32 MB in the long run. There are still inherent issues that prevent widespread adoption. Point of sale transactions, for instance, remain vulnerable to double-spending compared to second layer solutions. Transaction fees continue to pose a problem, though somewhat alleviated. Also, security is compromised as miners gain a time advantage during block propagation, and there's also the concern of limited disk space.

I also think this way about transaction priority. I think the fixed fee value used makes it one of the priorities (both companies and individuals) and I think the issue of unstable fee values ​​will still be a problem, as long as there is no determination of the volume value of the price that is uncertain per day x price.
6  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: I am looking for an investor in a proven and profitable business! on: June 24, 2023, 09:09:37 PM
I would suggest you to find a job and not comment on nonsense.

You probably don't read all answers and just collect activity points


Please don't hang on words. I am an expert, but in marketing, not crypto trading. I don't trust blindly, as I said statistics are confirmed. Do you think that the most popular crypto exchange is lying?


I'm not going to share any screenshots here because they will immediately be stolen and used to scam people.

I think this is a little ambiguous, you only said about the advantages and did not provide information about the losses incurred. Supposedly if that is true and you want to find investors, it is better to provide details on how the process works both in terms of losses and profits.

Especially what you informed about futures, where in principle it is almost impossible for a trader to experience continuous profits without experiencing losses.
7  Economy / Economics / Re: Look for what to invest, not what to eat on: June 24, 2023, 09:00:05 PM
People are sure about the return from an investment. However we were able to experience massive losses on some occasions which were completely unexpected. So, investment too kind of gamble. You'll invest today with the expectation to eat tomorrow, but you won't get the food. In such situation what can be done. For two days you weren't able to feed yourself, the next day your mind won't function perfectly to analyse the market. So, the importance of food is high than an investment.

If you really understand the principles of investing, this is very different from gambling. Because you have a plan for investment, you should really understand the concept of investment. As well as the basis for the future prospects of the project to be invested, what are the opportunities and most importantly the worst risks (losses) that can occur.

Therefore we need to do investment baskets with the method "Don't put all your eggs in one basket, which means never invest with all the capital you have in one place or just one company. Why? Because if the investment fails, then all the capital you have will also disappear".

Thus at least the risk of loss that occurs from several projects that you invest can still be covered by other projects.
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Interested in investing in Bitcoin my childhood friend after losing business on: June 20, 2023, 02:04:06 PM
Don't try to convince him to invest in Bitcoin that you don't understand, if he only thinks about making a profit on Bitcoin. I think it's better if you tell all the possible bad reasons that could happen in this crypto world if he invests, at least he has to first understand the basics of both technical and fundamental analysis.

If he can't accept that, you should advise him to invest in what he believes in and not be the friend who advises or makes decisions for you. No matter how good a friend is, it could become hostility, it's only a matter of money! because if he loses, he'll be mad at you.
9  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: June 16, 2023, 07:47:51 PM
I think it's usually useless to debate motivations: either it's unambiguous, in which case there is no debate... or it's not and there will be no resolution.  Ultimately what matters is what people do, not what motivates them.  If something is explainable as confusion or benign greed, it's prudent to stick with that assumption until facts show otherwise both because it's more likely to be true but also because it has less collateral damage if you're wrong.

As far as the quote--  Your guess is as good as mine as to the intended tone, it's probably a mistake to assume much about it.  It can be extremely difficult to figure out the correct tone from text,  something I know all too well as someone who writes messages intended to sound playful but get received by many as a particularly forceful sermon.  Smiley

That said, It's easy to be popular with almost any identifiable clique:  Just yell the party lines louder than other people, hate on the right enemies, cheer on the right heros.  So much so that excessive popularity with an identifiable group can be a red-flag:  People who are genuine will usually have some unpopular opinions, they'll usually have better things to do with their time than sing from the hymn book all day long.   Bitcoin and the adjacent altcoin ecosystems have been full of bad actors using the popularity play book: Even early on many of the top rated OTC participants were scammers.  Plenty of loud twitter voices promoting Bitcoin turned out to only doing it to form a following to sell their scamcoin to... even Craig Wright totally suckered a big swath of large block bitcoiners[1] by saying what they wanted to hear. ([1] whom I disagreed with, but at least the general position was one a (confused) person could honestly adopt... not a con, but Wright managed to turn many people into con-co-conspirators by playing to their biases)

This isn't to say that disagreeable people are more trustworthy,  I think the compulsively disagreeable are even more likely to be bad actors.  There really just isn't a magic formula to figure out good motivations from bad.  But we don't have to-- unless you're shopping for a spouse you don't need to worry about judging people, just consider their actions and your responses.


Debating motivation is just a matter of psychology in my opinion, and it won't change anything. In the end, everything still comes back to each individual's thinking.

It's really quite apprehensive about the current conditions, moreover, they are taking advantage of the popularity they get just to build a shitcoin for their own benefit. But I think this is predictable, and this is also very influential for people who are just starting out in the crypto world and I think not a few have experienced worse conditions than their previous finances.

Because there is no experience and basic knowledge for further research, this is actually detrimental for projects that want to run right. Because the level of popularity of shitcoin is even higher now.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Credit creation on a Bitcoin standard on: June 15, 2023, 08:46:34 PM
The credit system will be the same as when there was a cold standard. You can only lend what you have and most likely nothing more. The only thing possible is to lend with paper bitcoins, but you may only be able to sell them at a deep discount! Actually paper bitcoin already exists, just Google it.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything is cyclical and repetitive. Bitcoin is no exception on: June 15, 2023, 08:41:17 PM
Hmm interesting, maybe someone is somehow smart enough to predict where the market will go, when to buy and sell.

But it is also not certain that these people are always right! I guess it's also wrong sometimes, and it also doesn't seem like a simple skill you can get.

While there are some iterations and one can be fairly certain that there will be ups and downs, for example, there is a Bitcoin bull market every 3-5 years or so, it is much more difficult to know when a low will be reached or when the price will start moving significantly. So it's not just cycles and learning from history, but maybe something like talent.

Like some can be great artists and singers, but also many can't. I know I'm fine with relatively safe long-term investments, but I'm not very good at trading. So, I immediately stopped getting involved in it as soon as I realized I wasn't good at it, wasn't sure I would ever be good at it, and wasn't willing to invest my time and effort trying and figuring it out.
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Coinbase on the defensive about these bitcoin ordinal centralized meme coins on: June 15, 2023, 02:46:11 PM
Stop believing the bogus market cap and volume numbers they do.

if you continue to try your luck and take a lot of your pocket paper money. Maybe the hope of getting that $1 million has passed between those bogus volume parts even though there was only a $1000 total.

THE MEME MARKET IS FAKE. they do it the sneaky way by using the system the creators sell themselves to fix/fix/fake the price hoping some idiot will buy from them later.
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin gift to wife on wedding. on: June 15, 2023, 02:08:13 PM
Think of it this way, if you want to involve your wife in something that is still illegal in your country, that's not a very good move. You may cause problems and it may affect your relationship, because it depends on how your wife sees this as an investment or an asset. You didn't mention any views on your wife, so it might not be as good as we hoped.

Maybe invest your money from your bitcoins into something memorable for you and your wife. It would make a better wedding gift than bitcoin itself.
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Gambling is different from trading on: June 15, 2023, 01:52:48 PM
gambling managed in a mathematical / smart-way becomes a stable and profitable activity like trading.

only problem, to manage the typical variables of this activity you must have an "hedge". this will affect the profit and deserve a lot of research in some cases. you have two choices, risk a larger amount of money or trying to collect just a small profit.

With term "gambling" I always talk about bets related to sport and not to "casino" games in which it is practically always certain that the house manages to win in the long term...

It is interesting to discuss these two categories.

Gambling and trading are different? What if I give the opposite parable, that Gambling and trading are the same?

Actually, this depends on each person's perception, but a little bit from that, actually between gambling and trading is not much different. The principle of trading itself is how there are 2 components that are exchanged, does this also not apply to gambling?
Let's explore more about this world, where in gambling there are exchanges that occur between currency and betting (both losses and profits, and this also applies to trading).

HuH!!! That is very different between gambling and trading!!! Well, let's try to explore further.

The principle of trading using the right MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Of course, this is always the main thing when you want to be successful in the world of trading. The MM principle is very important as a support and every trader has different MM principles.

Then does that also not apply to gambling?

Of course, a reliable gambler will also think about how to reduce risk and increase profits. And the most appropriate way of doing this is to use the principles of money management.

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Basically everything in life is gambling, what happens to your life the next day? it is also still taboo or gambling. The business we do can also be said to be gambling because we don't know what will happen. So we have to plan everything well.

Both gambling and trading actually all have a positive side, depending on how we react to it and do it right.

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