I do agree, markets are more organized than most people suspect. BUT I also believe that markets are also more prone to shocks and unexpected events than people realize. Also, people move markets a lot more than people suspect (they always believe markets move people).
I think the reason why computers and companies always fail to predict big market crashes even though they happen about every 10 years is because of these failure to realize
If you can make your script more self aware of this who knows. Good luck
That's a really interesting point here ! The kind we can talk days about and trust me, I love that
If I had to articulate an answer, I would start by telling you that for an alternative truth to be accepted, the majority must always start by rejecting it. This is the most basic cycle there is ! You'll hear me talk about cycles a lot. Why ? Because this is the way energy moves in the universe. It's everywhere : from day/light to left/right political structure, from the tides to human emotions... Everywhere !
Why models, and particularly from genius people, trying to mimic the financial markets all failed (remember Long-Term Capital Management) ? Because they were trying to treat events linearly and not dynamically. Everything is caused by multiple influences so why keeping on using a +b = c from Aristotle to forecast complex things ? What we found is that there are cycles to the strength of an influence, the efficiency of an agent in others words. Imagine a giant dish of spaghetti where each spaghetto is a cycle treating one matter. Look how the whole thing is a product of infinite external incluences... Yet there is an order : the grouping (aggregate), or not, specify the end result.
Now take financial markets. What if I tell you we can forecast wars ? You would think and tell that we are crazy stupid. But picture this : a general knows a war is coming because he received top secret orders. He wants to benefit from this info. He starts speaking about it to his personal financial advisor. And voilą : the info is out and impacting gold market for example. Our dynamic modeling can pick up the shift in gold and correlate with others sectors and historical data and then... comes the war forecast !
All influences can be analyzed, sorted and classified but that takes a computer to do so
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