I believe in the model. Plan B laid out some great work and his first round of numbers had inaccuracies and he has since corrected them. i.e. His Silver above ground numbers came from Wikipedia and were incorrect. He is looking for inaccuracies just like those of us in this thread. I can't find any fault with his paper on Medium. Sure, there are some tiny nit picks but taken as a whole, and I do mean 99% of what he published, is on the money (as best one can tell from today).
When the halving occurs, the reward is cut in half. The price of one bitcoin must increase for current margins to remain the same.
I think the questions we need to answer are:
- What BTC price point can any mining farm continue to operate at a profit when the reward is cut in half?
- How fast will the price of bitcoin rise after the halving? <- I'm optimistic.
I see miner equipment having to last longer to pay for itself. Margins can't take too big a hit without companies deciding not to mine. Thinking through these problems using common sense tells us unless everyone shuts off their miner, the price is going up and Plan B's model is the best model I've seen to date.
Good work to the OP for bringing this up. I thought it was telling about the price of a liter of milk if bitcoin goes moon. A good way to think about this problem in tangible terms. Inflation of currencies will continue to happen.