Firstly, if you have a miner that mines 50% of the day, you expect at 3 Days for it to show the red line at 50% of the miner hash rate.
If, however you mine random days, on and off all day, then your red line will also be random depending on what you did in the last 3 Days when we find a block.

I'll give a clear description about how PPLNS works, since most people get the wrong idea about it.
Using the term 'ramp' unfortunately is only correct in two cases when mining PPLNS anywhere:

1) When you first start mining, N says how long until your per-block reward will match your start hash rate, if you keep the same hash rate.
2) When you stop mining, N says how long until your per-block reward will drop to zero.

They are 2 specific cases that unfortunately tend to confuse people about how PPLNS actually works.

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I have a 'tank' description that does correctly match how PPLNS works in all cases:

If you look at the shift graph, there is a green area that runs from 'now' back to N in the past - here N of course has a time value, and is 3 Days.
That green area is your 'tank' of shares.

Thus the sum of the value of all your shares in the green area, when we find a block, decides your proportion of the reward vs the total value of all the shares in the green area for all miners on the pool.

Why I say it is like a 'tank' is that each time a new shift is completed, the old shift falls off the left, and the new shift is added on the right.
If the value of the shift that falls off the left is the same as the value of the shift added on the right, then the red line will be the same.
If the value of the shift that falls off the left is less than the value of the shift added on the right, then the red line will move up.
If the value of the shift that falls off the left is more than the value of the shift added on the right, then the red line will move down.
Like a 'tank' with a hole in it emptying (on the left), and you filling it at the same time (on the right)
If you fill it faster than it empties, it's total value goes up.

PPLNS also means that any single change to your hash rate, up or down, will take N (3 Days) to complete it's effect.

So if you have 50TH of mining full time, and 50TH of mining on and off, and you've been mining both for 3 Days,
then your 100TH tank will be full, and if we find a block then, you'll get twice the reward of someone with a 50TH tank.

If you go to half mining for 3 days, at the end of 3 days you'll have half a 100TH tank, so if we find a block then, you'll get the equivalent of a 50TH tank of mining.

Anywhere during the 3 Days after you switch the extra 50TH on or off, your reward will be whatever level your tank is between 100TH and 50TH - based on what you did in the 3 Days before we found the block.

This is where the higher variance, I mentioned in my post you quoted, comes from.
It's faster for a single miner to get to full speed in the tank, as it is faster for it to get to zero in the tank. 3 Days.

Also be aware, that the pool, since it started: over 65% of the rewards have had an N value of less than 3 Days.
You can see how long the N value is for each Reward you have.

I've done an update to KDB and put it live (already)

With this update, I've changed the pool's N in PPLNS to 3 Days rather than 5Nd as it was before.

So, the next block we find, it will ONLY reward all shares in the 3 Days prior to the block.

For new miners or miners considering joining, this means that it will take 3 days for your shares to 'ramp up' to full reward
as opposed to the 5Nd value that was around 148 days on the last block we found.

This also means that if you leave the pool i.e. no longer mining, after 3 days your shares will have 'ramped down'.

Applying the two above if you have an outage, after 3 days you will have 'ramped down' but also you can then 'ramp back up' within 3 days after you reconnect your miners.

The 'expected' result is still the same as before, however, since the pool is currently small, and the average block time is quite a bit more than 3 days, the variance, due to this change, of your rewards while 'ramping up' or 'ramping down' is much higher.
What this basically means is: that during that 'ramp' (up or down) the expected chance of a reward is 1 in X/3 where X is the average expected days per block based on the current pool hash rate - which is currently about 5 weeks.

Hopefully this will attact more miners, and help us get that average block time much more regular!

Come visit Discord with the link on the Home Page if you have any questions.

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Did you own it previously or someone else did? Maybe it's configured for static IP allocation, not uncommon specially if someone owned many and wanted to keep track of each.
Keep trying the factory reset so you can start from scratch. I believe that's what i did with the ones i bought online.
It's also quite possible your miner is bad. This is how one of mine died.

Currently? You'll have to wait about a year. If you have other means of income, go ahead. Sorry to not sugar coat it, but this is the best pool there is with zero fees, and yet the Chinese whale miners don't seem to care.

If the hash rate increased, payments would be more frequent.

looks right for Antminer GUI - one minor change