Friend of mine was military intelligence with top secrete clearance. While he did not divulge anything to me (rightly so) he did say the world was a lot more mundane than what people would like to believe...
The truth right there. There is no secret society or aliens controlling everything, it's just us brothers and sisters. That's what they would like you to believe ... government / military technology is MUCH more advanced than civilian tech. They have quantum computers by now already for like 10 years I would speculate. Nice troll thread BTW. Looks like the joint has someone else smoking his product that creates a "sci-fi is real TODAY" mindset. When Intel starts releasing quantum processors, that's when the government will have had quantum computers for a few years. Right now, no one is even close to real-world QC "chips". |
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First, a straw-man does not make an argument invalid or implausible. It just doesn't make it sound. I think your logic needs a bit of ship-shaping since claiming a straw-man does nothing to defeat the assertion.
Quite so; argumentum ad logicam is the fallacious argument that because a conclusion is the end of a chain of bad logic that makes it wrong. Of course it doesn't. I might say "apples fall from trees because fairies cut their stalks". Apples definitely do fall from trees. That doesn't mean fairies cut them down though (to conclude so would be to commit another logic error, affirmation of the consequent, and I already know you're familiar with that one... "if QC then No Evidence; No Evidence therefore QC"). However, what we're arguing about here is whether your logic is fallacious or not. Your straw man was to insert a load of conclusions about my opinion on extraterrestrials into my mouth then demolish (using your own special brand of logic) what you had inserted. That is the textbook definition of a straw man. A straw man is proof of nothing, and is without doubt a fallacious argument. Hence why I chose to not enter into debate with you about things I did not say. None of that changes the fact that you resorted to use of a straw man to protect your wibble about advanced quantum computers being real. Don't give me lectures on logic.
Yes; I can quite see that is a waste of time. However, it amuses me, and perhaps it amuses some others reading. I'm saying the assertion I made is what I believe, and that's why I believe that you're a fool who's wasting his time trying to 'logically' disassemble my belief with your belief (i.e. that my assertion is false).
Seriously? Your defence now is that you weren't debating whether your belief was true or not; you were debating whether it's true that you hold it. Let me save you the trouble: I'm quite sure you believe your own beliefs. There is no externally observable source that any of us can use to prove or disprove what thoughts are in your head, so I am happy to believe your evidence in that respect. You seem to have shifted your ground though; the debate was not "does the joint believe advanced quantum computers are real?", the debate was "are advanced quantum computers real?". Here's the evidence for that being exactly what the debate was: quantum computing is no threat to bitcoin.
BTW, if you think that the current publicity on quantum computing is 'up-to-date,' you're kidding yourself. How do I know this? Simple. If I (or you) was in a position of ultimate authority, would I restrict the amount of information that actually reaches the public regarding technological advances? Fuck yes I would. tl;dr Quantum computing is far more advanced than any publication will lead you to believe. You chose to slap down Hexadecibal with your superior knowledge of what quantum computers are doing in secret. Now you're telling us that what you were actually doing was parading your beliefs, not knowledge. You have no knowledge of any advanced quantum computer; you have not designed one, you have not seen one; you have not heard reports of one; you can't even point to some evidence of a problem that one might have solved, revealing itself to us. You offer "belief" as your justification for condescendingly telling Hexadecibal how deluded he was. Why does your belief that they exist trump his/our belief that they don't? Your belief is better than his, right? That is simply religious bigotry. Oh... sorry, I "believe" that it's religious bigotry. Using your own logic then, my position is unimpeachable, so I expect nothing but silence from you in response save you be branded a hypocrite (he says expecting no such thing). File me among the amused. For my part, I've studied computer science and cryptography, and while quantum computing could radically alter the landscape of computers and encryption algorithms, I file it in the same category as FTL (Faster Than Light) travel: pure science fiction, at least for now. I figure if someone figures out how to make a true quantum computer, they'll probably also be the ones to create an FTL drive. Even better "proof" that quantum computing is nowhere near being ready for actual use: Dan Brown wrote about it in his (horrible) techno-thriller Digital Fortress. The NSA already has a giant supercomputer that uses superconducting quantum computing chips to crack all encryption codes everywhere! |
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This thread is beyond silly.
Below $2 is not happening, period. I don't see it getting as far as $5. The 50k BTC from BitPay will slow things down a bit, but only for a while.
I'm tempted to say it won't get below $6, unless BitPay does something drastic (which would be idiotic on their part). Buying directly from BitPay is an option, so we probably won't even see all 50k hit the exchanges.
I won't disagree on the $2 part, but $5 and $6 as price floors? Wow. Just wow. That's pretty damn bullish, even arrogantly so, considering we only left 5.xx behind two weeks ago in a large surge up, and we were at 4.xx several times during the past two months. Personally, I'm continually surprised by how bullish various people are; I'm mostly speculating and mining in order to help pay bills. My inclination is to think that despite other claims, the BTC is full of 20-somethings (and even teenagers) talking smack and acting like they know how the world works when it comes to money. There are definitely more serious folks around, but at a ripe old age of 39 I imagine I might be one of the older people on here. |
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Hopefully this isn't AllInVain Part 2: The Return. I'd guess they'll be back up sooner rather than later, and it IS the weekend. Still, not a happy occurrence. Going to take out my higher bids for now (and hope they don't process until the fallout is complete). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhG-vLZrb-g |
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' premium only' email sent  I hope they were not delivered. Because this is most dumbest thing I've read in all my life. Says the guy that can't speak English properly.  |
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Question now is: how far will people be willing to push the price before someone takes a big old dump? It took a day or two to whittle down the $6 wall, so if people were hesitant to buy into $6, why would anyone want to buy into major slippage? Hopefully we get someone with a big wallet to give the price a nice push now....
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Just think how long it will take for FPGA miners buying new kit to pay that stuff off assuming
the price stays under 6-7 for the next year!
ouch.
In the next year? They *WON'T* pay it off! You would have to be extremely bullish -- or just plain foolish -- to think a $500 FPGA mining card is a good investment right now. Let's just assume they're so power efficient that there's no "cost" to run them. And let's assume that you've got a really good model like the X6500 that can do 400 MHash/s. Even skipping the halving of the BTC reward, right now at the current difficulty (and again, let's assume that it doesn't increase, just for our estimate), your current reward will be around 0.23BTC per day, or 6.9BTC per month, or 84BTC per year. If the (current) $5.6 per BTC price, and the difficulty, and reward all stayed constant, you would pay off the $560 FPGA in just over 14 months. But let's be more accurate. Technically, that FPGA will use 16.5W, and the system it's in will likely use at least 35W, so really you're looking at 50W or 1.2 kWh per day, or 438 kWh per year. That works out to a cost in power of $44 per year if we go with the typical "$0.10 per kWh" figure many use. For six months, assuming difficulty stays constant, you will spend $3.60 per month on power, and you will mine $38.60 in BTC, giving you a net profit of $35 per month. After six months, the reduced reward goes into effect, and if difficulty, price, and everything else stays constant you will suddenly drop to earning 3.45 BTC per month, or $19.32, for a net profit of only $15.72. At that rate, it would take nearly three years to pay for the cost of the FPGA. Hell, let's be really generous. Let's say you run six FPGA miners off of one system so that you maximize efficiency. Now, the miners all use 16.5W each, and realistically your system will probably be using more power as the CPU will have to do more work. But if you can run everything off of a 45W i7-3770T, and your mobo and RAM and storage all use 15W, you're now drawing 160W from the PSU, so with an 85% efficient PSU you're using 188W. Per year, if you live in a place where you pay $0.07 per kWh, you will spend $115 on power, or if you pay a more likely $0.10 per kWh you spend $165 on power. With the six FPGAs now active, you're mining 1.37 BTC per day for six months (250BTC), and then the block reward halves and you get 125BTC for the next six months. If we just round off and say BTC prices average $7.00 over the course of the year, you make $2625 from selling BTC. Your hardware costs for just the FPGA mining equipment is $3360. You'll still take nearly eighteen months to pay off just the FPGA hardware. Whew! |
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The reward drop is definitely not fully priced in yet. In part it is, of course, but not fully. It will become priced in once the reward drop starts to be the #1 talking point in the community. So perhaps a couple of months before the drop. Late Summer at the earliest, probably early Autumn.
More than anything, the reward drop is going to affect miners. Who cares if you have a bunch of BTC you're holding and suddenly they're not created as quickly? But if you're out digging for gold and finding 1BTC per day for a year and suddenly you start to find 0.5BTC per day, your potential to earn money after paying for electricity just got killed. I suspect we will see network hash rate take a major dive following the drop -- I know I'll be shutting down unless price goes up or the number of people mining drops substantially (e.g. difficulty goes down). |
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I haven't made a trade in a single year.
I think you might have a word in that misplaced sentence. ;-) |
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I'm bearish for the short term, bullish for the medium term, and very slightly bullish for the long term in that I think a year from now we'll be in the single digits but higher than we are right now.
Just to clarify, are you currently expecting we'll touch below $5, before heading back up? Yes. Unlikely. 5.10 yes, but not 5 or below. Why should people sell for less than 5.10 now? This is a very good time to hold and see the price go up further. Every time someone says something like this, it seems they're proven wrong. I'm going to mine BTC right now and hold them, but I'm also going to hold onto the USD from when I cashed out at $5.40. I'm not buying unless we get close to $4, but I'm also not selling until we hit more than $6. |
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Never mind the fact that Home Depot took three years to go from around $11 to nearly $70 before starting a downward trend that would last another three years (and coincided with the dot com bubble). Anyway, let's compare apples with steak and argue that since they're both food, they're similar. LOL
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As has been said many times before.
Bitcoin price is a good indicator of Google trends for keyword "bitcoin".
Use this powerful knowledge wisely...
Let's take it a step further: Bitcoin price is a perfect indicator of Bitcoin price! Don't let anyone in on this tautological secret. ;-) |
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Just saw the April 6 update. Here's a question I'm trying to find the answer to (I'm sure it's buried in the forums somewhere, but I'm currently coming up with no hits): how long is the MtGox half price commission sale going to last? Seems like something they should just list on the main MtGox page, but I don't see it.  |
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someone made a buy order on bitcoinica for 9000 bitcoin -i did see that order a bit above- at $4,97 base price that means about 4.95 mtgox price
squeezing 9000 bitcoins is a awesome opportunity
Define squeeze. If the price is taken low enough, Mr. 9000 will either cut his losses, or if taken even lower, he will be force liquidated. Thanks, that's what I got from reading the rest of the thread. And of course, without knowing the leverage used or how much reserve he has, there's no way to know where this would get liquidated. |
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So, oddly that 1.5 million BTC ask wall is at $4.70, which is about $0.10 above the MtGox 50K BTC wall. Any correlation? More importantly, if I put in a huge bid that I don't actually have money to back (e.g. let's say I have $1 in Bitcoinica and I bid on 1000 BTC; it doesn't matter what my leverage is, I can't actually support that order), does it still show up? If so, you probably need to ax that portion of the order book.
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Censorship! This thread is a sign that Bitcoin is in big big trouble.  Ha, right! Blitzboom. What is the point of the new rules violated my theme, "My screwed method or up\down club " ? I did not call anyone to buy or sell there ... I believe the point isn't to eliminate all speculation/price movement suggestions. Rather, it's to eliminate the threads that have nothing to say other than "WE'RE GOING DOWN/UP! SELL/BUY!" Post a chart with some reasoning behind it and you're speculating and that's fine. Post a stupid thread saying "Everyone sell all your coinz now! I think we're going down." on the other hand would be a waste of space. |
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Why?
- Press is heating up again.
- Summer fever is about to approach.
- Bitcoin is way undervalued. Period.
- A bottom has been established with all the recent dips.
I am ready for another bump. It's one event away from happening.
Why don't you tell us what really happened: someone put up a 50K BTC wall at $4.60 and you now believe that we won't be dropping below that amount any time soon. It's certainly a tempting thought, but really I wouldn't put too much faith in "The Great Wall of 2012/03/27". Given the wall has already been touched a few times, the owner now has BTC to sell. All it would take is for the owner to drop the wall, sells off all the BTC he has purchased since establishing the wall. At that point, all you "full longs" are liquidated, further dropping the price and potentially causing a panic. Then the wall can reemerge at $3.90 or whatever the price hits. TL;DR: Beware the walls, for they reek of manipulation. |
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i vote to remove the scammer status for bitscalper...
Only if and when people have actually verified the return of all their investments in the original service. I'm out a while ago, so no problem here, but others I imagine are not so lucky. |
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Likewise! Got the 2BTC and decided to sell off for now, wait to buy back in maybe after the weekend (if we get the famed "weekend drop"). :-) |
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