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TrumpBets have missed May 6 post and I'm sure there were LoL and cs:go matches that day.
It is either he forgot to post, or his all-in tactics failed. Could be option Nr.2, because you cant just win for 13 days straight.
You can definitely have 13 consecutive winning days. Just need to be more selective. There were lol and csgo games yesterday but none that i found valuable enough to include in my challenge. I'm going to update less in May since most LoL leagues are on a break. So far you have already x15 your initial bankroll.
I think you should take your profits while you can, I doubt you'll be able to defy the odds for much longer.
Also, are these the only bets you have been placing in this time, or have you already been running others? That could be eating into your EV.
Setting a specific goal to reach in gambling is rarely a good idea.
I do make my own bets on the side, taking riskier lines but with proper bankroll manegement. While in this challenge I opted for more valuable bets with aggressive BR approach. |
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nice man any picks for today?
what are your thoughts on
k1ck vs GO?
and
Movistar riders vs fnatic rising?
To be honest I'd go with k1ck for 2.6 and movistars 2.0
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i have posted an image of every bet that i made since the start of my challenge, so no bets are missing.
I will be using just this one account and i wont be withdrawing nor adding any money during this challenge
however i do make other bets on other platforms in the meantime which are not included in here
Bets on other platforms don't matter. What matters is the accuracy in the numbers regarding your betting on this platform. I checked all of them myself, and I can say that they are accurate so far. For the convenience of the readers I decided to create the following table: BET#. DATE - Initial bankroll -> Final bankroll 1. 25/04/2019 - 508.00 -> 677.33 2. 26/04/2019 - 677.75 -> 982.59 3. 27/04/2020 - 982.59 -> 1,375.62 4. 28/04/2020 - 1,375.62 -> 875.62 5. 28/04/2020 - 875.62 -> 1,425.62 6. 29/04/2020 - 1,425.62 -> 1,925.62 7. 30/04/2020 - 1,925.62 -> 2,550.62 8. 30/04/2020 - 2,550.62 -> 3,025.62 9. 30/04/2020 - 3,025.62 -> 2,775.62 10. 01/05/2020 - 2775.62 -> 3,083.33 11. 02/05/2020 - 3083.95 -> 3,508.95 12. 02/05/2020 - 3508.95 -> 4,446.45 Starting bankroll: 508.00
Current bankroll: 4,446.45I think it would be great if you would post this table in the end of each post from now on(you can improve it of course  ), adding new rows to it, so that the readers could see your progress without going through the whole thread. hey thanks for working that out lol not sure if that's the best way to represent my bets but maybe it's an improvement? 05/05/2020: https://imgur.com/a/bW9R2iSi took a couple days off from the challenge as i had some plans this weekend came back strong today happy of my two bets missed one ldlc vs btxl, could have had 1k more but oh well it is what it is current bankroll: 6184.44 |
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Giants Gaming vs LDLC
Date/Time : 3.05 18:00
pick: LDLC @ 2,48
Both teams have over 70% of the winnings. Giant Gaming has played more matches making the statistics more reliable. VODAFONE GIANTS mainly concentrates around their Mid and AD carry while the LDLC has an equal distribution of players. And today that can be their advantage because when comparing their favourite champions they have more room for manoeuvre in the drafts and that can give a big advantage. And here again there is a place for analysts to play live - if you know your way around the current finish line you can see and make a lot of money. In the VGIA big unknown is Th3Antonio, although he played very well in both previous matches with LDLC. Although Vatheo has quite a low KDA, maybe that's why there's more room in LDLC where jungler and ADC stand out instead. At this stage it's much harder to predict the result so I wouldn't risk it with a stake however, the LDLC should have a balanced fight.
for a moment i thought this was going to turn out sour after seeing the draft but they came through and closed it out mid game before giants could scale again good predictions keep up the good work |
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I remember we have already discussed this matter, and recently you have been forwarded to my topic where I actually show real-life stats proving that after 100k bets luck, as the only force opposing the house edge, becomes utterly irrelevant and inconsequential. Simply put, 1 billion bets, whether made by a single player or by a crowd of countless players, is a massive overkill in this regard
Then how would you explain that some people are in overall profit after making millions of bets on dice sites? Do you think all of them are using some kind of sophisticated betting strategy, something like that "Martingale-DOGE" one of yours? Or how else could they beat the house edge, if not by pure luck? bets from yesterday were a succes 02/05/2020:https://imgur.com/a/m52Acvkcredit goes to fortbettor - I posted a link to his thread earlier (provided great analysis which convinced me to follow his line) second bet played out perfectly, betted against Top's early game draft and JDGs late game comp. Couldn't have chosen a better odd for that game current bankroll: 4446,45 You've been making a good progress so far. Congrats! Going to keep following this thread. Very interesting. One question, though. Are the bets we can see in this thread constitute all of your bets made since the April 25 on that particular site, or some of them may be missed? i have posted an image of every bet that i made since the start of my challenge, so no bets are missing. I will be using just this one account and i wont be withdrawing nor adding any money during this challenge however i do make other bets on other platforms in the meantime which are not included in here |
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bets from yesterday were a succes 02/05/2020:https://imgur.com/a/m52Acvkcredit goes to fortbettor - I posted a link to his thread earlier (provided great analysis which convinced me to follow his line) second bet played out perfectly, betted against Top's early game draft and JDGs late game comp. Couldn't have chosen a better odd for that game current bankroll: 4446,45 |
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https://imgur.com/a/RlnlLwoshoutout to fortbettor for the first bet, i really liked his analysis and followed his bet link to his thread for the analysis https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5243376.0I see you are not using the strategy on going all-in every bet in a "safe bet" so my previous table won't work anymore.
How do you choose the import and how many bets you are doing per day?
i dont have a certain amount set in stone sometimes there could be tons of games and i still won't bet inaction is action as well it just all depends if i see something valuable to bet on or not I can say that you're doing well in this one.Keep continuing and you might able to built up some reputation on here and would gain up some potential followers in case. current bankroll: 3083.95
Would have a heartattack with this kind of all-in bet 2.7k euro. WTF! Good luck and hope this would last long. Havent you consider on pulling out some profits? Like getting your initial capital? In case you bust up then you do at least secure out that 500 bucks. i wont be withdrawing any money until the challenge is completed - unless i have to change from bookie due to XYZ reason. this is because i dont want to complicate things and i want to stay as transparant as possible
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TES vs JDG , 11:00 2.05
Bet: Under 26,5 kills 1st map
Odds; 1.86
China Pro League Finnals // League of Legends
betting analisys and tips
JD GAMING will be playing in a composition today: Loken, LvMao, Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao. On the opposite team we will see JackeyLove, QiuQiu (oddly for some people instead of Yuyanjia) 369, Karsa, Knight. So, today we will see QiuQiu in action - not sure if it's good for them. I deliberately do not choose to win the JDG, but I think the odds are well balanced. But playing for 1.6 is not worth the price of favorites to me. I was interested in betting on a number below 26.5 killings during this final. Although the average of these teams is a little bit higher, let's not forget that it has changed a little bit with the stages of the season and this average is a little bit inadequate. Secondly, the finalls are always played much more carefully and we'll wait for a big one too (line 23,5 about 2,6 in odds). The JingDong is one of the better first blood chemistry in the league and that's why the ratio for such an event is now profitable. Interestingly, one team has a shorter game in the league (Top Esports vs Team WE (22 minutes) and the second longest JD Gaming vs FPX (almost 42 minutes). The strength distribution looks more or less similar and proportional with the difference of a slightly more aggressive jungler on the Top Esports side. In fact, depending on the first map I will be analyzing if the line for killings is profitable so this bet is on 1 map and not on the next. i really love your analysis; going to follow this one for my challenge |
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I see you are not using the strategy on going all-in every bet in a "safe bet" so my previous table won't work anymore.
How do you choose the import and how many bets you are doing per day?
i dont have a certain amount set in stone sometimes there could be tons of games and i still won't bet inaction is action as well it just all depends if i see something valuable to bet on or not |
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Schalke 04 Esports vs Movistar Riders / EU MASTERS 19:30 1.05
bet: Movistar Riders @ 2.96 MARATHONBET
Tipster prediction and betting from https://esporttalk.org/
The average is about 2.6 and here's almost 3. It's a viable risk for me. Ok all of us know from the beginning that 04 is the main favorite of this tournament. No one is hiding from it. The team openly confesses and announces it to everyone and because they put a lot of emphasis on winning the EU masters. This team has already proved many times that it can win against the best, such as G2. However, it can also play completely below expectations and fail with very weak rivals. Movistar is a team from the heavy Spanish league which is not weak and which will have great motivation to show its best side against 04. The Germans will feel a lot of pressure today because I think subconsciously they know that this will not be an easy duel. Movistar has 23 wins, practically the same percentage of wins (about 70%) and is in big swing. A very solid selection of well-played characters on honey (32% of the total insults) the case that Shalke may have a problem already at the draft stage. The last game against Team Singularity confirmed the good disposition of Xiko and Elyoya, of course, leaving aside the fact that TS surprised me negatively this year. do you know if they play with lurox or gillius? l |
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bet from yesterday 29/04/2020:https://imgur.com/a/buOOh8Oput my chips in during first game on the whole series; ended up being a clean sweep for fpx so pretty happy with the bet 30/04/2020https://imgur.com/a/1gGSTmT3 bets for today out of the 3 i liked the one that i lost the most, gamerlegion had so many opportunities to close out the game. At one point I had the option to cash out for double but I hesitated for a second and couldn't for the rest of the game. By far the biggest value bet. the challenge is going much better than i have anticipated but next tuesday there is a one month break for LoL games so i might switch to csgo but there will be way less games that im going to pick for the challenge current bankroll: 2775.62 |
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Looks like you are doing lots of live betting, where this is not always practicable, but could you post at least your pre-match bets in advance here ? Because those screenshots might not tell the whole story and it's easier to track for people then. If time, you could also post your live-bets here once submitted, although I know you probably couldn't care less while being in action and following the games.
@Betwrong To not further derail the convo here, sorry @OP, we should move to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5227515ill try to post the pre-match bets in advance but most of my bets will be live anyway and i don't see any value of posting those since you will never catch the same odd Thanks for the answers.
Catch another two questions:
1. Dont you want to add dota2 to your game list as the game seems the same ? (geek question)
2. Are you planning to withdraw 30k with one batch or you gonna have several withdrawals? Or you gonna win, for example, 5k and make a first/partial withdrawal?
The reason I’m asking is because withdrawing 30k eur in one transaction might cause question in the bank or on gambling site.
The reason I’ve asked about the games because betting lol and cs:go only will narrow earning possibility.
For example you see a 99% win bet in fortnite - why not consider making a this bet, even if you dont know much about the game.
so over the years i have created a system that works for me and provides enough possibilities by just sticking to few sports. my system could be applied to almost any sport - for me personally this just happens to be LoL i have withdrawn more money than that and i've never had trouble with my bank |
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Hey TrumpBets, I have two questions about your betting strategy, so would you be so kind to answer them? 1. Why do make just 1-3 bets per day? You've said you like League of Legends and CS:Go - there much more than 1-3 games are played during the day. 2. Why exactly you have chosen these two games ? Where you prof. player in the past or you followed all the esport events? You only have said that you are prof. gambler - so why you focus on esport, but not on a regular sport ? hey man, good questions 1. I do make more bets, they are just not included in the challenge. The are two main reasons for that. - this thread was made as a challenge for myself starting from 500$ to 30,000, this is also not the usual amount I wager with. I do have my own bets running on the side. - I have a specific way in mind on how i want to complete this challenge - of course it's still gambling and i might have to adapt my strategy later on if things don't go according to plan - nothing is set in stone 2. Esports have always intrigued me and I always knew it's only going to get bigger and one day may surpass traditional sports. I have played LoL and cs:go actively but not professionally. I am actually very knowledgeable and succesful in football wagering. But for me personally in order to maximize my profits I like to specialize in one sport. Obviously this might work for me but not for others. |
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SANDBOX Gaming vs Team Dynamics, 10:00
PICK: Team Dynamics @ 4.04
Odds I would put on their winnings are 2.3- 2.5. Team Dynamics is here to take the full jackpot. Comparing recent matches, Team Dynamics has a much better win rate of almost 65%, while Sandbox has only 50%. SANDBOX Gaming plays much more matches. For one better for the other not necessarily. Of course TD has much weaker rivals, but the winning series adds wind to the sails and today they can fight against a stronger rival. TD will play with Seong-hyeok, Do-yeop, Kyu-seok. Dae-gil and Jae-won . One the others side Sandbox has 4 changers to choose from.A little lottery. Only small stake.
nice catch bro |
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hey guys this thread was made to show you guys all that it's possible to profit by wagering on sports 28/04/2020:i made two bets; not too happy about the first one disregarding the result, putting my money on 1.6 wasn't worth it at all. my team got completely destroyed even though they had the better team composition really happy about my second bet; played it out perfectly; waited for the right moment and just went for it https://imgur.com/a/4lECqnntomorrow we will do better current bankroll: 1425.62 |
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They really should ban knights syndra. Or pick it for yagao. Other than that I don't see any real threat for JDG to lose the series.
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What do you think about top going up against JDG?
I feel like if they target knight on bans, they will stomp them hard.
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To be honest, I did not even notice you're pretty much going all-in with those bets. That is an aggressive strategy for sure  Well, Good job on your third roll! So far so good, will be following your journey to see where this is gonna head. I have never tried betting on esports and never really understood this "odds" thingy - so I guess "1.4 odds" means a win will get you 1.4x profit, right? But if you lose, would you lose all of it and this challenge ends or just partially and you'll go on with what you have left? 1.4 is the decimal version of an odd; the american counterpart would be -250 it is exactly how you described it. If you win you get 1.4x amount back which also means that you need to be correct a good portion of times to make it worth it |
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Hey guys thank you for the kind and concerning words. I appreciate every comment and your point of view. If you don't mind my question, are you betting purely based on your own thoughts and gut feeling or are you following other gamblers to decide which team you're going for?
I'm following 100% my own expertise and my own system that I have fabricated. Can you provide a daily update with your choices sir and if possible kindly drop also the website where you are gambling. I like to follow your footsteps as I can see that you are already professional in this area. I gamble in NBA and DOTA2 but there are many choices that I was unable to hit correctly so I hope we can also join your journey.
You almost doubled your money in just 2 bet only and I see that the odds in your betting site is pretty good. I will bookmark your thread and I hope you will provide your choices 1 hour before the game will start if you are not betting in a live game.
I'm using different bookmakers for the best available odds. For these two games specifically I have used betway. I'm going to try to keep the stuff as sweet and simple possible by sticking to one bookmaker. I'm planning on revealing some of my betslips beforehand if the situation allows me to. Good Luck to you.
It will be a hard Challenge with these big odds. High-Risk High reward I guess.
Any plan to remove the intial bankroll or you will go allin everytime?
I will not be withdrawing any funds before I finish this challenge. I won't be going all in all the time. It's just that the two games marked all of my boxes to risk it for the biscuit. Your odds of successfully going from $500 to $30,000 is around 1.6% excluding house edge.
Surely you know by now that your best odds of achieving a $500 > $30,000 bet is to do a single large $500 bet on a 60x multiplier.
Over time your results will move closer and closer to the standard distribution, and you will almost certainly fail. However, with a single large bet, this isn't the case.
Math is great and all; I'm all behind it but that wouldn't be fun now, would it? Grinding it up slowly is more challenging and thus more rewarding. This could be disastrous, if you are intending to achieve your goal in a short span of time, all-in in an option to your bet.
Agree, doing an all-in is quite and aggressive strategy, where one mistake or just a miss click can make OP bankrupt. He cant be that lucky to go from 500 to 30k with just all-in strategy. Plus his odds are quite high to do that. I’ve tries doing all-ins in football, doing “exact score before half ends” bet. I’ve placed bets when it was few minutes till the end and after 4-5 wins lost everything. Thank you for your concern. I am fully aware of the all in risks. Let's just say that it's a calculated risk.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27/04/2020:https://imgur.com/a/sqakbqZI wasn't planning on betting on this series because both teams are really close to eachother when it comes down to level of play. I wasn't even expecting of catching this one but I managed to snatch a 1.4 odd really late into a game where JDG had mountain soul, baron and elder drake. Hence the agressive approach. Current bankroll: 1375.62 |
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