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221  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Breaking: MtGox Now Testing Bitcoin Withdrawals on: February 22, 2014, 06:39:44 PM
From Service Discussion:
No, withdraws are not happening.

MTGox has continually thorough the shutdown made a small number of what appear to be dust-cleanup transactions. Thats all these appear to be...

Ironically, someone of them like TXID: ed7ffa58fef651adaf1281ad10e98a4399eb2be40950345c7ccb7c8f76f067e1 in their liast are spending immature coinbases  (45d45286bac04311684ab7716ab170b50781cde6b094d9a644fb89ca07ae6888:31 is a coinbase with 67 confirms as I write this) and so it's not a valid transaction.  So even after all this time and weeks of outages for fixes MTGox is still producing invalid transactions.

The ntxid field is somewhat new, I first noticed it there a week-ish ago.
222  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Breaking: MtGox Now Testing Bitcoin Withdrawals on: February 22, 2014, 06:15:05 PM
It is showing how sensitive bitcoin is to speculation, a random guys appears claimin supposed(and weak) evidence with tech information that 99% of people can't even understand and the price goes up by 100%.
Right. I expect Mt. Gox to "resume withdrawals" with lots of restrictions on them so people can't take out every BTC they have. Just like they did for USD and EUR. Then they'll announce loudly that everything is back to "normal". The suckers fell for that for months last time.
223  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Gox testing NXTID, Withdraws soon? on: February 22, 2014, 06:08:54 PM
Mt. Gox is probably going to pull the same stunt they did with USD and EUR. They'll allow some withdrawals, especially small-value ones, and then their shills and sockpuppets will be claiming everything is just fine. There will be lots of excuses for withdrawals not working.
Expect the following excuses:

* "You need to reverify".
* "You have exceeded your daily quota".
* "You have exceeded your monthly quota".
* "Our hot wallet needs to be refilled from an off-site wallet".
* "Your request is pending".
* "All of our customer service reps are busy".
* "The block chain is backed up".
* "We are experiencing a denial of service attack".
224  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Poll: When will gox resume withdrawls? on: February 22, 2014, 08:27:00 AM
Full, fast withdrawals of all currencies plus BTC, never.

Very limited withdrawals with vague excuses for delays, coupled with claims everything is all right now, probably next week.

But it won't work. The financial press knows "slow pay = broke". The last time Mt. Gox pulled this, in July 2013, most of the coverage was in the tech press of Bitcoin as a tech story. Now, Bitcoin is covered by the financial press, which understands the signs of bankruptcy.
225  Economy / Service Discussion / Fake buy orders on Mt. Gox on: February 22, 2014, 07:08:44 AM
For the last two days or so, there's been what looks like a "wall" of about 3000 BTC just below the current price. It's usually been on an even-dollar boundary. When it actually gets matched by a small sell order, the "wall" immediately drops by $1 or $2.  That's why, even though the market depth looks strong on the buy side, that strength is fake and the price continues to drop. I just watched it drop from $100 to $95 over a few minutes.

This isn't a particularly useful trading strategy.  It looks more like an attempt to prop up the price on Mt. Gox.

Does someone track bid retractions on Mt. Gox?
226  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: How Bitcoinbuilder and mcxNow can save Mtgox users on: February 22, 2014, 03:03:59 AM
I'm guessing OP knows many are looking for an exit from MtGox and just wanted to plug his site. If you exit via bitcoinbuilder then you get normal BTC and you can do whatever you feel like with it.
Sounds about right.

If you just want to liquidate BTC, there's Coinbase.
227  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: New Digital CB "band" for cryptosystems, i.e. offline bitcoin transactions on: February 22, 2014, 02:53:37 AM
As a Bitcoin network, packet forwarding ought to cost some small fee, paid in Bitcoins. The problem is that the Bitcoin system chokes on micropayments. But think about that as an idea for congestion control. Maybe you have to do some proof of work to send packets.

I've thought about very low value bitcoin tipping for forwarding, but I don't know how to do it.  Any suggestions?
The problem is keeping the accounting traffic from exceeding the useful traffic. If each packet is billed separately, the accounting traffic is huge, much bigger than the useful traffic. The usual solutions are to have virtual circuit metering (like X.25 and cellular telephony) or end-link metering (like DSL and cable modem connections.) You can meter "flows" (as in what's now called "software defined networking"), but that requires more central control, like the old Telenet system. It's hard to do in an open mesh network.

Keeping someone from hogging the network, though, is quite feasible, and the mesh network people have looked at that problem. Congestion control is statistical; it doesn't have to be perfectly accurate. If you bill, you have to get it right, which is harder.
228  Bitcoin / Press / [2014-02-21] Bloomberg: "Mt.Gox Bitcoins Devalued as Traders Ponder Insolvency" on: February 21, 2014, 10:49:41 PM
"Mt.Gox Bitcoins Devalued as Traders Ponder Insolvency (1)"
Key phrases: "Missing money", "Trapped funds".
Bloomberg reports "Mt.Gox didnít return repeated requests by e-mail and phone for comment."

Bloomberg is covering this as a straightforward finance story.
229  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Help MtGox on: February 21, 2014, 07:19:25 PM
So my question is: what can we do to help mtgox?
Someone with good banking connections could make it possible for Mt. Gox to deposit money in, say, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (which is the parent of Union Bank in the US) and then, in one day, do all the wire transfers needed to return all owed US dollar funds. No more US dollar "withdrawal queue".

All Mt. Gox would have to do is deposit the money and provide a list of the recipients and amounts. Mt. Gox might need to be guided through the work flow for this. This is a routine operation. This is what big commercial banks do.

If, of course, Mt. Gox had the money.
230  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Mt.Gox Multi-plaintiff Suit on: February 21, 2014, 07:05:38 PM
MtGox may comply with an order from a Japanese court, but based on the Bitcoinica experience they're not going to comply with orders of foreign courts unless they have assets located within the jurisdiction of those courts -which at this stage seems to be Japan and Poland.
Mt. Gox is complying with orders of the U.S. District Court in Seattle in the Coinbase case.

Mt. Gox has an explicit legal presence in the US, in Delaware. They established a dummy office so they could register with FinCen. That makes them subject to US courts.

There's so much trade between the US and Japan that the mechanisms for resolving contract disputes are all in place and well worked out. The Government of Japan even has offices in the US to help. That's part of what the Japan External Trade Organization does.
231  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt Gox Endgame on: February 21, 2014, 05:56:04 AM
although we don't know the full outcome of this debacle , wouldn't it be great to have Mark Karpeles featured on an episode of American Greed ?
That's a good idea. Are there any similar shows in Japan?
232  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MTGOX recovery imminent! on: February 21, 2014, 05:47:04 AM
I wonder who's buying all those "GoxBTCs", and how they intend to collect. Since what they're doing is buying bad debt, it's likely that some buyers are collection agencies or law firms, confident that they can force Mt. Gox to pay up. Collection agencies routinely buy up bad debts of companies. The companies then get very unpleasant visits from lawyers, goons, and cops until they pay up.
233  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt Gox Endgame on: February 21, 2014, 02:54:14 AM
Mt. Gox is incompetent, broke, or crooked. The endgame depends on which.

If Mt. Gox is crooked, at some point Karpeles will try to make a run for it. He can't just hide in Japan; he's a gaijin and there are lots of pictures of him. Getting out of Japan would be iffy for him. I would not be at all surprised if he's been quietly informed by some part of the Japanese government that trying to leave the country would be frowned upon. (Japan runs on "suggestions" like that.) It's too late for "take the money and run". He might have gotten away with it at the top a few months ago.

If Mt. Gox is broke, they can try stalling some more, but it's not going to work this time. They have zero credibility now and everybody who reads any major  news source from the Wall Street Journal to Russia Today knows it. At some point, they'll be faced with a demand to pay up or submit to an audit from someone who can make them - a big creditor, a bank, the Japan Financial Services Agency, or the Seattle court in the Coinbase case. One very likely possibility next week is that whatever bank handles their inbound wire transfers will dump them. Mt. Gox has always had "problems" with withdrawals, never deposits. (That's why the "US government is stopping them" argument is bogus. The US government can stop banks from dealing with non-US parties for a number of reasons, but when they do, it stops transactions in both directions.) If there's a "hiatus on deposits", assume their bank dumped them.

If customer funds are missing, Karpeles is going to jail in Japan.

If Mt. Gox is not broke, but merely incompetent, there's a chance Mt. Gox might get out of this situation. But it will be really difficult. If they're not broke, they could hire an outside audit firm and publish a financial statement to restore their credibility. (A video of Roger Ver won't cut it.) They'd need to hire a controller. someone respected, with experience. (A "controller" in a company is in charge of financial controls, banking relationships, cash management, signing checks, budgets, and all that boring stuff that's keeps a company from going broke. There's no indication that Mt. Gox has one.) That might restore enough credibility to get their problems fixed and withdrawals fully functional. If they actually paid out every requested withdrawal quickly, they might make a comeback. If they try to stall further, it's going to backfire. That unwinds the same way as being broke.
234  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Why does the price of GoxBTC in GoxBux continue to drop? on: February 21, 2014, 02:00:15 AM
I have no idea. What's strange is that there are almost no Bitcoins for sale on Gox. The total market depth on the Bitcoin side is only about 500 BTC.  On the dollar side, somebody keeps putting up a "wall", and then takes it down and retreats as the price drops. The market is very thin. Maybe some people left trading 'bots running.
235  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: To Regulate or Not to Regulate? on: February 21, 2014, 01:21:39 AM
Quote
from "Practical .NET for Financial Markets":
To protect the integrity of the market, precautions must be taken to ensure that no credit defaults take place. As mentioned in Chapter 1, this is the job of a clearing corporation, which takes away the credit risk concerns of large players through novation.
Right. We're in trouble with Mt. Gox because Mt. Gox is not just an exchange. It's also a depository institution, a broker, a clearing house, and a transfer agent. In the real world, those functions are separated to prevent Mt. Gox type situations.

NYSE Euronext, for example, is an exchange. They take in orders, match them, and issue transfer orders to  a clearing house. At no time does the exchange have ownership or possession of the items being traded.  The transfer orders go, usually, to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which does the actual transfer of stocks, etc. from one owner to another. They're like the Department of Motor Vehicles for stocks.

Customers deal with brokers. Brokers have possession, but not ownership, of securities on deposit with them. Brokers may hold customer cash, but large customers usually move their cash out daily to a separate bank. (It used to be common to sweep cash into Treasury bills overnight, but interest rates are so low now it's not worth the trouble.) Brokers in the US pay into an insurance fund, the Securities Investors Protection Corporation, which insures each customer for  up to $500,000. (SIPC paid off the first $500K of customer losses when Madoff was busted.)

These parts of the system are the plumbing of the financial world, and work fairly well. (Most losses, fraud, and other trouble comes from investment funds of one kind of another, because funds actually own assets and have customers as creditors. Funds also get to make investment decisions about their own funds.)

In the Bitcoin world, too many functions are concentrated into "exchanges". In particular, exchanges today are depository institutions - they hold customer funds for extended periods, not just during a trade. We need exchanges that work more like Coinbase - every day, if you set it up that way, all your cash at Coinbase is swept into your bank account. 
236  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Japan Private Investigator needed to find out where is Mark Karpeles on: February 20, 2014, 09:54:38 PM
No, the question one would ask a private investigator is "does Mt. Gox have all the customer's funds it should?" That's a legitimate check on a company's financial situation. Teikoku Private Detective Agency is in Shibuya, as is Mt. Gox. Useful questions are "What banks do they use" and "what are their bank balances?" Any private investigator should have the contacts to find that out quickly. This is the first step when collecting a debt.

If you can locate bank accounts with more money in them than Mt. Gox owes you, you're in a good position to start debt collection efforts.
237  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why do you panic sell into MtGox manipulation? on: February 20, 2014, 05:57:19 PM
I assume MtGox has other liabilities that are senior to deposits.
If they're considered a Payment Service Agency under Japanese law, no, they don't. Customer funds belong to the customer. Dipping into them is theft.
238  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Criminal complaint against Mt. Gox and Mark Karpeles on: February 20, 2014, 05:22:13 PM
If you're in the US, filing a complaint with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is worth doing. They have jurisdiction over broker/dealers who sell directly to US persons, which Mt. Gox does. The SEC treats Bitcoin scams just like other scams, as Trendon Shavers found out. The SEC has a cooperation agreement with the Japan Financial Services Agency, so the SEC can make things happen in Japan. Mt. Gox can be dragged into a US court, as the ongoing Coinbase lawsuit demonstrates.

With all the publicity surrounding Mt. Gox right now, a phone call to the SEC's enforcement division from someone with significant funds stuck in Mt. Gox would probably get some attention. Ten such calls...
239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Forum moderation policy on: February 20, 2014, 04:59:14 PM
FYC: While reading the forum I'm constantly bumping into some huge colorful "signatures" (they look more like bilboards) that make reading difficult sometimes.  
Yes, those are annoying. I'm tempted to write a Firefox plug-in that hides all posts with advertising signatures. Since people are paid for those posts, they're spam.
240  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt Gox's new office on: February 20, 2014, 04:38:38 PM
The Cerulean Tower 15th floor location is short term rental small office space. You can rent space for 1 to 8 people there. It's not just a mail drop. That may be where Karpeles is hiding out. We should know shortly; reporters will be looking there.
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