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221  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Most Influential Person in Bitcoin 2014 on: December 04, 2014, 08:01:31 AM
Mark Karpeles.
222  Economy / Service Discussion / Coinbase announces "USD wallet" on: December 02, 2014, 06:41:08 PM
Coinbase has announced a "USD wallet". Now you can put money into Coinbase without buying Bitcoins. This makes them a Bitcoin broker/exchange.

As with other exchanges, don't keep any funds there you're not actively trading. Coinbase does not offer the insurance or legal protections of a bank account, and over the history of Bitcoin, more than half the exchanges have gone bust.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are we seen as "early adopters"? on: December 02, 2014, 06:28:48 PM
And how many private keys were lost, how many HDs with wallets on them trashed, how many Bitcoin boxen hax0rd?

A huge number of Bitcoins were created in the early days and never seen again.
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Difficulty going down on: December 02, 2014, 06:26:12 PM
At 5 hours to go, the next difficulty change is going to be very close to zero. The current prediction is -0.44%.
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Difficulty going down on: November 30, 2014, 07:51:09 PM
At 2 days to go, the next difficulty change looks like it's going to be very close to zero.
226  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: People can now buy Bitcoin using credit cards on: November 30, 2014, 07:09:41 PM
They charge 5% to get in, $55 to get out. Plus, your bank will charge you a cash advance fee.
227  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-11-26] Coindesk: Kraken to Assist in Search for Missing Mt Gox Bitcoins on: November 29, 2014, 11:29:54 PM
Read through all the documents from the bankruptcy trustee now on the Mt. Gox web site.

A few key points:

* The Payward/Kraken deal is more about outsourcing claim processing and, eventually, payout of claims. They also bought Mt. Gox's computer hardware (not the data; the machines will be erased), and, strangely, its chairs.
* The search for missing assets has been carried out so far by two accounting firms, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC, and and ReEx. They've found some of the cash, but not the Bitcoins.
* Karpeles and his four other businesses owe the estate of Mt. Gox about 11 milion USD in "loans". The bankruptcy trustee is trying to collect.
228  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difference in storing your BTC in a wallet vs exchange... on: November 28, 2014, 08:08:45 PM
Coinbase provides web and mobile Bitcoin services. The mission of the founders is to provide Bitcoin value added products for consumers and merchants. Their users deal with the company rather than directly with the network. Coinbase is recognized as “the PayPal” of the Bitcoin Network.
Coinbase is more like Joe's Cut-Rate Check Cashing next to the liquor store. Merchants don't keep money in Coinbase for more than a few hours. Bitcoins go in, and US dollars are deposited to the merchant's account that night.

You can keep money in Coinbase, but shouldn't.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 28, 2014, 07:46:45 PM
What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.



No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.
230  Economy / Speculation / Re: What to expect from bitcoin in December 2014? on: November 28, 2014, 08:11:49 AM
December will probably be a lot like the last few months, price wandering around in the $300 - $400 range.
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the winklevoss ETF failed on: November 28, 2014, 08:08:56 AM
If you actually read the ETF's prospectus on the SEC site, the terms are not very good. Compared to a good mutual fund, they're awful. For example, the managers of the ETF do not hold errors, omissions, or theft insurance in case they happen to somehow lose the Bitcoins. Owners of fund shares have weakened voting and litigation rights. Stuff like that. There are more risks here than the value of Bitcoin.
232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 27, 2014, 07:27:47 AM
Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price on: November 27, 2014, 07:18:36 AM
Looking at the difficulty estimate from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty at the time of this post, there's a possibility that there will be a negative difficulty change. Small one, and there are still ~6.4 days to go, but what type of impact would this have on BTC prices?

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,581,348,249 (-1.78%)
Adjust time:   After 905 Blocks, About 6.4 days

Price at Bitfinex = 368.5 USD

Any guesses?
Difficulty has little observed effect on price. Difficulty has gone to the moon while the price went down slightly.

Price affects hash rate. Miners who are losing money drop out.
234  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Changes to the Alogrithm Prohibited or disputed? on: November 27, 2014, 07:15:58 AM
I get the impression that you don't understand what the word "consensus" means or how difficult it is to change it once it is established.
"Consensus" for Bitcoin means the people behind enough mining pools to control > 50% of the hash rate. What end users want is irrelevant.
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: The mood on: November 25, 2014, 07:12:50 PM
I am terrible at market timing and technical analysis.
In previous BTC crashes, I was euphoric at the top even though I should have known better. I actually bought a little at the top!
I might be the "stupid money".
It's people like you who keep Bitcoin going! Bitcoin is zero sum - for every winner, there has to be a loser. We need all the suckers we can get! Keep trading!
236  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / The Bitcoin hype is over on: November 21, 2014, 07:25:43 PM

Google Trends for "Bitcoin" searches.

The first peak in 2011 is when Bitcoin got initial attention.
The second peak in mid-2013 is the China bubble.
The third and biggest peak in 2014 is the Mt. Gox collapse.

The first two were when the two big Bitcoin runups happened.  The Mt. Gox collapse, no so much.

Post Mt. Gox, the hype level has been modest, and the price has been flat or declining.
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Rally To Resume? on: November 21, 2014, 08:18:03 AM
What we're seeing looks like a thinly traded pink sheet stock followed by momentum investors. When the price happens to go up, buyers pile on and run the price up for a short period. The same thing happens in the other direction. Neither effect lasts very long. That's sort of the last 6-8 months of Bitcoin, since the China bubble popped.
238  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: More than a year and still no consensus on uBTC unit? Consensus is overrated? on: November 20, 2014, 06:27:31 AM
Right. At $375, this is a non-problem. 
239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 3 Bitcoin Doomsday Scenarios I can't find much discussion on... on: November 15, 2014, 08:05:04 PM
If someone cracked the hash algorithm, or found a cheaper way to compute it, they'd make a lot of money, difficulty would go to the moon, but the rate of Bitcoin creation would not increase. Just like when ASICs came in.
240  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well that didn't last long... on: November 13, 2014, 10:18:40 PM
This looks like momentum traders.  Nothing has happened to affect the price much in the last two weeks, other than the head of Silk Road 2 being arrested. It may even be 'bots doing momentum trading driving the rally and selloff all by themselves.

Momentum traders have the effect of amplifying any little change and increasing volatility. They don't affect the long term price much one way or the other.

It's possible to make a lot of money momentum trading.  Especially if you have some edge like access to the transaction flow at an exchange, and can front-run. Mt. Gox, before they tanked, seemed to have a lot of that.
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