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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash! Down from $200 to $161 in two minutes on: January 14, 2015, 08:47:11 AM
One possibility is that traders, reasonably enough, have cut back on how much cash they keep on Bitstamp. This allows bigger swings at night, when few are trading, banks are closed, nobody can wire money in, and there's limited cash for buying.  That may be how the price dropped to $152 so fast. Now it's back around $180 and reasonably steady.

Soon the UK will wake up, followed by the US. A lot of people in the Bitcoin world are going to be very unhappy tomorrow and will have to make some hard decisions. I don't think many will want to pour more cash into Bitcoin right now.
222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash! Down from $200 to $161 in two minutes on: January 14, 2015, 08:04:10 AM
Well, things have settled down for now, around $185. That's still down $20 from an hour ago, and below the $200 support level for the first time. The bottom was at $152 on Bitstamp.

Both the US and UK are mostly asleep, and the banks are closed. When people get up, they'll have to think hard about what they want to do with Bitcoin.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

We're now basically back to where things were before the China bubble.
223  Economy / Speculation / Crash! Down from $200 to $161 in two minutes on: January 14, 2015, 07:25:59 AM
Price is in a screaming dive. Broke through $200 on Bitstamp and crashed to $161 in under two minutes.
224  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Overstock Offers It's Staff The Option To Be Paid In Bitcoin on: January 14, 2015, 07:01:17 AM
I wonder how much delay Overstock imposes on their employees between when Overstock binds the price of BTC and the employee gets delivery.
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: So when should you buy in. My thoughts from a long term bear. on: January 14, 2015, 04:59:06 AM
In 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along.
Probably more like 2-3 years on that.
226  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Sneak Peek of an Upcoming Exchange on: January 14, 2015, 04:50:52 AM
Another scumbag/flake exchange. Do not need. Do not want.
227  Economy / Speculation / Did the Bitstamp fiasco kill Bitcoin? on: January 13, 2015, 07:23:59 PM
From an investor perspective, putting money into Bitcoin requires an exchange that isn't crooked or incompetent, and has significant volume. There are none left. Of the US dollar exchanges:

  • Bitstamp - two guys somewhere in Slovenia with a mailbox in London who are $15 million in the hole.
  • Mt. Gox - in liquidation.
  • Bitfinex - "The Bitfinex trading platform is currently in a beta phase (testing phase). The platform is owned and operated by iFinex Inc. (Bvi), and during this final phase the platform is being prepared to operate under a fully licensed model."
  • BTC-e - total buy side market depth right now, BTC225.

Everybody else in USD is too tiny to matter.

The China exchanges matter, but the volume there is widely assumed to be fake, and the prices may also be fake.

Bitstamp was the last exchange that appeared to be legit, and they blew it.
228  Economy / Speculation / Re: What might the lowest possible price of Bitcoin be? on: January 13, 2015, 05:09:43 AM
BTC has use but the tech is what is being dealt with right now.  Either sidechains create a BTC on steroids or another alt takes its place.  At least that is my simplified opinion.
Ripple, Etherium, and Paycoin all tried to do that. How did that work out?
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: What might the lowest possible price of Bitcoin be? on: January 13, 2015, 05:07:29 AM
I'm always curious as to why people without bitcoin have 'no choice' but to buy bitcoins from the few that own them.  There are plenty of businesses that may want to use bitcoin, but from a customer's point of view the only really compelling reason to own bitcoins is to buy something that's illegal or restricted in their own country.  It's a valid use that cannot be denied, but it's a relatively small one.
Right. As I've pointed out before, Bitcoin has had two major bubbles - Silk Road and China exchange controls. Both existed only because Bitcoin offered what seemed to be a safe way to do something illegal or restricted. Both collapsed once the relevant authorities figured out how to stop it.

Without a new large use case like those, it's downhill from here.
230  Economy / Speculation / Re: The cost of owning/operating a Bitcoin exchange on: January 13, 2015, 04:46:10 AM
Opening a platform, accepting customer fiat and writing Bitcoin IOUs in theory requires very little starting cash (not factoring in MT licensing, regulatory anything, etc.). Once the fiat pool is large enough, you would have enough cash flow to cover the risk and could potentially invest it through your own exchange.

That's called "speculating with customer funds" and is a felony in many jurisdictions.

Running a Bitcoin exchange is cheap until something goes wrong. Then it's very expensive.
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: What factors are interference on BTC price on: January 13, 2015, 03:31:22 AM
Hi everyone,
I traded before in forex and I have some experience about trading (technical and fundamental) which technical is all about mathematic and can be used for any trend in the world and for BTC also. but what about fundamental?
In the Graham and Dodd sense, Bitcoin has no fundamentals. The Bitcoin world doesn't produce anything. There are no net profits. There's no underlying asset value. Bitcoin is zero-sum, a pure speculation.
232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Production cost will determine price on: January 13, 2015, 03:27:32 AM
The cost of producing a bitcoin will determine its price (the point of maximum pain), we will see more dumps and then it will stabilize, usage has already been accounted for and will not result in a spike until and unless there are new apps like silk road
No, no. Read some of the threads in mining speculation. This has been discussed many times. Price drives difficulty, not the other way round.
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price is dropping and Difficulty is increasing !!! on: January 12, 2015, 08:38:02 PM
....and we have the first victim.
Cex.io is going to stop cloud mining.
Quote
Taking into account the Bitcoin price drop, and the increase of difficulty, we will pause cloud mining after the next difficulty increase
Source: https://twitter.com/jeff_smith01/status/554648104826593280
Now that's interesting. Their blog post indicates that the mining is outsourced: "Currently all cloud mining/maintenance costs are directed to the Hardware provider, hence, we are open for negotiations with additional mining hardware providers, who can offer favourable terms." Cex isn't a miner; they're a broker for mining capacity.

Apparently they had the option to stop paying their miners. Their contracts with miners must be highly favorable to CES. Now somebody else is stuck with a huge amount of unprofitable hardware. The miners may come crawling back with more favorable terms, trying to mitigate their losses. Or they may just shut down. We'll see the results in the hash rate.
234  Economy / Speculation / Re: PermaBears on: January 12, 2015, 04:59:04 AM
Nagle?
More or less, yes. I still haven't seen a convincing use case for Bitcoin. The Silk Road and China bubbles only lasted until the relevant regulators could stop them. As a payment mechanism, Bitcoin is mediocre. Bitcoin for remittances didn't go anywhere.
Bitcoin never became the petty cash of the Internet. And Bitcoin is an ever bigger crook magnet than I expected. There's still no Bitcoin exchange with proper auditing, and the failure rate of Bitcoin exchanges is well over 50% now.

I was expecting Bitcoin to become a currency used for little stuff like music tracks and in-game purchases. That would be useful, but it never happened.

235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss COIN ETF to push price above 10,000 on: January 12, 2015, 04:48:36 AM
As I've pointed out before, the Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They bought a lot of Bitcoins, and now they want to cash out.  If they sold them on an exchange, the price would crash. The ETF is an attempt to get rid of those Bitcoins without crashing the price.

Wishful thinking never ends on here.
236  Economy / Speculation / Bitstamp being down didn't affect the price. on: January 10, 2015, 09:13:04 PM
Well, the price is back to where it was before Bitstamp went down - around $275-$280. Bitstamp being down only had a temporary effect.

The Paycoin debacle diverted some mining power from Bitcoin for a while, but that's over. (So is Paycoin, probably; it's dropped from $20 to $3, despite GAW's claim that they were going to support the market. Paycoin seems to have been just a pump and dump.)

The $300 support level for Bitcoin has been broken. It wasn't a dramatic event, just part of the long slide.

Outlook: meh.
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: commission free trading on bitstamp till Jan 17th on: January 10, 2015, 08:16:24 PM
I noticed that as well. Thinking I might move some coins over there for some quick trading if there are no fees Smiley
Don't keep them there. They're still 18 thousand Bitcoins short. Until Bitstamp has an audit, keep only minimal funds there.
238  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The real problem with Exchanges/Services...it's quite simple. on: January 10, 2015, 08:22:40 AM
The main reason Bitcoin was invented was to solve the issue of blind trust.  The funny thing is you can actually trust Bitcoin, it actually works.  Just most things built on top of it are still failing the blind trust problem.  I am wondering if maybe someday the blockchain advancements will solve this. 

Supposedly this is one of the great leaps of smart contracts, is that now, you can force third-parties to trust you via smart contracts. 
That's an excellent point. There are theoretical solutions, involving online contracts, M out of N schemes, and such. Some are even up and running. But none of them are being used much.

Etherium, Ripple, and Paycoin (XPY) were all complex systems built on top of Bitcoin. Etherium is a really complicated "smart contracts" scheme, complicated enough that there are probably exploits. Ripple was supposed to do all sorts of things, but mostly ended up as another altcoin. Paycoin seems to have been an out and out scam. None are being used much.

Bitcoin does one thing well - unidirectional, irrevocable transfers between parties who don't know each other. All its strengths and weaknesses stem from that.
239  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: BITSTAMPS BACK! on: January 10, 2015, 05:08:29 AM
Not a big deal, they have so many coins sitting in the cold storage collecting dust. Their reserve ratio is much higher than any banks in the world, which typically have only 20% of customer funds at hand while still serve the customer for decades
Banks do not work that way. Banks make loans, which are assets to a bank. If you own a loan, you can sell it, which banks do. Loans plus cash plus capital must exceed deposits. Trouble can appear if a broad class of loans lose value, which is what happened in 2008.

Bitcoin exchanges have no secured loans as assets. They are not banks. They are not lending institutions. They have to have 100% of their deposits or they are insolvent.
240  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: BITSTAMPS BACK! on: January 10, 2015, 05:03:01 AM
I highly doubt they have the finances to buy it outright. I think they will have a plan where they slowly pays back the customers over time, or offers them a stake.
That seldom works.  Many financial firms have tried that. Enron was a notable example of that going very wrong.

So, withdraw your funds from Bitstamp for a few months. If they're solvent, it won't hurt them a bit. If not...
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