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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well that didn't last long... on: November 13, 2014, 10:18:40 PM
This looks like momentum traders.  Nothing has happened to affect the price much in the last two weeks, other than the head of Silk Road 2 being arrested. It may even be 'bots doing momentum trading driving the rally and selloff all by themselves.

Momentum traders have the effect of amplifying any little change and increasing volatility. They don't affect the long term price much one way or the other.

It's possible to make a lot of money momentum trading.  Especially if you have some edge like access to the transaction flow at an exchange, and can front-run. Mt. Gox, before they tanked, seemed to have a lot of that.
222  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Number of Transactions touching All Time High on: November 11, 2014, 08:54:04 PM
Its all margin trading bots anyways. Transaction volume doesn't reflect the demand. Its all bot.
Compare  volume in US dollars, which is flat.

There are more transactions, but the transaction size is dropping. This suggests 'bots busily making little trades.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price Alert! Bitcoin is lower than 12 months ago on: November 09, 2014, 05:24:47 AM
How come some really big bitcoin farms are in China? How can the owners sell their bitcoins?
Because that's "manufacturing and exporting".  That's a permitted way to get value out of China. It's not in yuan yet, so exchange controls don't apply. I suspect some of those Bitcoin mining farms are even getting industrial development loans.
224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price Alert! Bitcoin is lower than 12 months ago on: November 08, 2014, 06:26:54 PM
A year ago, we had the start of the China-driven bubble. China has exchange controls; it's hard to get money out of China.
For a few months, Bitcoins were a safe, easy, legal, online way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars and euros.

Then the People's Bank of China cracked down on Bitcoins. The bubble popped. It took a while to run down, and now it's over.
225  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Good news! Gavin Andresen: I think everybody should switch to talking in "bits" on: November 04, 2014, 08:52:16 PM
This is a year too late. When "Bitcoin was going to the moon", maybe it mattered. Now, not so much.
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss COIN -- Will it even matter? And how much? on: November 04, 2014, 06:30:38 AM
The Winkelvoss EFT is a dump. They bought a lot of Bitcoins, enough that if they sold them on any Bitcoin exchange, they'd crash the price. Now they want out.  The EFT is a way for them to sell their Bitcoins, hopefully without crashing the market.

It's probably too late for that. They need a big supply of dumb money to exit this way.
227  Economy / Speculation / Re: No more rallies for a looong time on: November 03, 2014, 08:15:43 AM
There might not be rallies soon but volume argument is one of the worst you might use for it as the volume in October was the biggest in last 7-8 months.
The number of transactions is up, but the total amount of the transactions is not.
228  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Foundation to repair relationship with community on: November 03, 2014, 05:44:51 AM
I like the part where they say they can no longer rely on Bitcoin appreciation to fund the foundation. That's realistic.
229  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I warned you on: November 03, 2014, 05:43:21 AM
Quote
One goes down they all go down.

Well, of course. That's how multiple exchanges work. If there's any significant price difference between exchanges, somebody will buy on one and sell on another, and the prices will equalize. The prices will close up to the cost of the transaction, which is a few percent on Bitcoin exchanges.

This is arbitrage.

If you see a significant difference between exchanges, that's a bad sign. It means there's trouble getting funds out of some exchange. Remember when Mt. Gox was far higher than anyone else?  That was because most investors couldn't get funds out of Mt. Gox.

230  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 1,000,000 bits = 1 bitcoin. Future-proofing Bitcoin for common usage? VOTE on: November 03, 2014, 05:37:14 AM
With the steadily declining price of Bitcoins, this is now a non-problem.
231  Economy / Economics / Re: Was Bitcoin actually just a Pump and Dump? on: October 31, 2014, 08:42:23 PM
Well, the basic design, where the early adopters got tons of Bitcoins very easily, suggests it was designed as a money-making opportunity.
232  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Number of Transactions touching All Time High on: October 31, 2014, 08:36:47 PM
Bitcoin Number of Transactions (minus popular addresses) touching All Time High:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


This means that Bitcoin is now processing, everyday, over half of what "the clearing house automated payment system" AKA "Chaps" of the Bank of England processes during weekdays at work hours:
That's the Bank of England's large payment system, 277bn a day, average transaction 2m.

Now check the dollar volume of Bitcoin transactions. Around $50 million a day, and flat for six months.

Transactions in Bitcoins are going up because it takes more Bitcoins to buy the same stuff.
233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Japan is new China? on: October 31, 2014, 08:04:03 PM
The difference is that the Chinese distrust their government and are looking to get money out of China. They also have a huge network of people outside China, that can receive that money. Neither is true for Japan.
Not quite. The difference is that China has exchange controls. Converting yuan to dollars or euros is hard. That's what drove the Bitcoin bubble in China - it was a way to convert yuan to Bitcoins to dollars.

Japan has no exchange controls. Any major bank will convert yen to dollars or euros.  Today's rate is 112.30 yen/dollar.
234  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Only 250K wallets in use? (Where did bitcoin go wrong vid) on: October 30, 2014, 07:56:54 AM
Well, face it, since the China bubble collapsed and Mt. Gox went bust, Bitcoin has gone sideways for six months. Transaction volume in USD is flat, and the price has gone down slowly. Difficulty went to the moon as the ASIC guys ramped up, but that's leveling off now, too.
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: QE3 ended, good or bad news for BTC price? on: October 30, 2014, 07:12:42 AM
This was anticipated, so it had little effect on the stock market.

Not much effect on Bitcoin, either.
236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin transaction volume in USD is surprisingly flat. on: October 29, 2014, 05:24:24 AM

Flat for six months.

There's the China spike, and the Mt. Gox collapse spike.  Then 6 months of flat.  It's interesting that volume in USD has remained roughly constant as the price has varied over a 2:1 range.
237  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Difficulty slowdown: Is this turning into a long-term trend? [Discussion Thread] on: October 26, 2014, 08:06:26 PM
Even at the new, "slow" rate, difficulty is growing over 100%/year. ROI declines accordingly.
238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Any theories behind the explosion this morning? on: October 26, 2014, 08:01:32 PM
Lake BTC's own site doesn't show a spike. This seems to be Coindesk screwing up all by itself.

Coindesk: "The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index provides the latest and most accurate bitcoin price" ... "international reference point"

Yeah, right.  They're obviously not doing any validity checking. If there's a sudden big divergence between exchanges, that's an alarm condition in the real world, where those numbers feed trading engines.
239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Cost of production linked to the price? on: October 25, 2014, 05:59:44 AM
So some people claim that coins are worthless if the cost of production is near zero. Other people claim that it doesn't matter what the cost to producing a coin is as there are other factors that determine the price.

What are your opinions?
The cost of mining has little influence on the price of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has a considerable influence on mining activity. Look at the price and difficulty charts for the last six months.
240  Economy / Speculation / Re: $350 is VERY important... make it or break it level on: October 25, 2014, 05:53:54 AM
In the last three weeks, the price has been briefly above $400 and briefly below $300. Right now, it's around $350. What's special about $350?
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