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241  Economy / Speculation / What if Bitcoin just levels off? on: December 10, 2014, 07:18:46 PM
Since the beginning of October, the price of Bitcoin has been about where it is now, $350 ±  50. There were brief excursions outside that range, but they didn't last. Difficulty has also leveled off. The last difficulty was a slight downward change.

What if that's what 2015 looks like? The Silk Road and China bubbles have run its course. Without some big outside event, there's no particular reason for the price to move much.

The speculators would be bored, but as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin might be more useful.
242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014 on: December 10, 2014, 07:08:19 PM
It's interesting you say that when a good 87% of the people who voted in the poll, that you can see above, are likely to be overly optimistic about the outcome of the price.
We need all those bulls suckers to keep the price up. Bitcoin is zero-sum. as I point out occasionally. For every winner, there must be a loser.
243  Economy / Speculation / Re: the last 3 days price, the huge arb space on: December 10, 2014, 06:14:58 PM
Bitfinex often has a leading price, or sometimes is LakeBTC step ahead, no matter, the key is that price gap usually is $10 between them and BTC-e.
This tells you what the real costs of Bitcoin transactions are. Looks like they're about $10 per round trip, in and out of Bitcoin, or, at current prices, about 3%. This is an inefficient market by modern financial standards.
244  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Growth of Bitcoin Mining Network slows to 0.5% per day. on: December 09, 2014, 08:35:11 AM
0.5% per day is 6x a year after compounding. That's huge.

It's not likely to be maintained. The last difficulty adjustment was negative.
245  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: H.R.5777 - "To protect cryptocurrencies." on: December 07, 2014, 08:15:24 AM
Bill text.

Main provisions:
* Federal preemption of new state laws regarding cryptocurrencies. This would preempt New York's law.
* Mining and revenue in cryptocurrencies only taxable upon conversion to dollars. This preempts current IRS guidance.

Zero co-sponsors. GovTrack predicts 1% chance of being enacted.
246  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Long Live Proof-of-Work, Long Live Mining - "there is no meaningful alternative" on: December 05, 2014, 06:21:10 AM
The cost of mining 1 bitcoin nowadays is greater than the cost of 1 bitcoin itself.
For some miners, yes. For the big guys with low costs, no. We just had a small difficulty drop, indicating even some of the big miners are dropping out.

Today, unless you have a big mining farm, cheap labor, good relationships with an ASIC vendor, and cheap power, you can't make money mining Bitcoins. See the Mining Speculation part of the forum.
247  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Where to invest my bitcoin on: December 05, 2014, 06:10:45 AM
Hello i want to invest my bitcoin is there a good place to do it
No.

There are Bitcoin Ponzis. They're scams. There was at one time a Bitcoin stock market. That didn't go well. Bitcoin loans are possible, but Bitcoin debt collection is very hard.
248  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Most Influential Person in Bitcoin 2014 on: December 04, 2014, 08:01:31 AM
Mark Karpeles.
249  Economy / Service Discussion / Coinbase announces "USD wallet" on: December 02, 2014, 06:41:08 PM
Coinbase has announced a "USD wallet". Now you can put money into Coinbase without buying Bitcoins. This makes them a Bitcoin broker/exchange.

As with other exchanges, don't keep any funds there you're not actively trading. Coinbase does not offer the insurance or legal protections of a bank account, and over the history of Bitcoin, more than half the exchanges have gone bust.
250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are we seen as "early adopters"? on: December 02, 2014, 06:28:48 PM
And how many private keys were lost, how many HDs with wallets on them trashed, how many Bitcoin boxen hax0rd?

A huge number of Bitcoins were created in the early days and never seen again.
251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Difficulty going down on: December 02, 2014, 06:26:12 PM
At 5 hours to go, the next difficulty change is going to be very close to zero. The current prediction is -0.44%.
252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Difficulty going down on: November 30, 2014, 07:51:09 PM
At 2 days to go, the next difficulty change looks like it's going to be very close to zero.
253  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: People can now buy Bitcoin using credit cards on: November 30, 2014, 07:09:41 PM
They charge 5% to get in, $55 to get out. Plus, your bank will charge you a cash advance fee.
254  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-11-26] Coindesk: Kraken to Assist in Search for Missing Mt Gox Bitcoins on: November 29, 2014, 11:29:54 PM
Read through all the documents from the bankruptcy trustee now on the Mt. Gox web site.

A few key points:

* The Payward/Kraken deal is more about outsourcing claim processing and, eventually, payout of claims. They also bought Mt. Gox's computer hardware (not the data; the machines will be erased), and, strangely, its chairs.
* The search for missing assets has been carried out so far by two accounting firms, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC, and and ReEx. They've found some of the cash, but not the Bitcoins.
* Karpeles and his four other businesses owe the estate of Mt. Gox about 11 milion USD in "loans". The bankruptcy trustee is trying to collect.
255  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difference in storing your BTC in a wallet vs exchange... on: November 28, 2014, 08:08:45 PM
Coinbase provides web and mobile Bitcoin services. The mission of the founders is to provide Bitcoin value added products for consumers and merchants. Their users deal with the company rather than directly with the network. Coinbase is recognized as “the PayPal” of the Bitcoin Network.
Coinbase is more like Joe's Cut-Rate Check Cashing next to the liquor store. Merchants don't keep money in Coinbase for more than a few hours. Bitcoins go in, and US dollars are deposited to the merchant's account that night.

You can keep money in Coinbase, but shouldn't.
256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 28, 2014, 07:46:45 PM
What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.



No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.
257  Economy / Speculation / Re: What to expect from bitcoin in December 2014? on: November 28, 2014, 08:11:49 AM
December will probably be a lot like the last few months, price wandering around in the $300 - $400 range.
258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the winklevoss ETF failed on: November 28, 2014, 08:08:56 AM
If you actually read the ETF's prospectus on the SEC site, the terms are not very good. Compared to a good mutual fund, they're awful. For example, the managers of the ETF do not hold errors, omissions, or theft insurance in case they happen to somehow lose the Bitcoins. Owners of fund shares have weakened voting and litigation rights. Stuff like that. There are more risks here than the value of Bitcoin.
259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 27, 2014, 07:27:47 AM
Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.
260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price on: November 27, 2014, 07:18:36 AM
Looking at the difficulty estimate from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty at the time of this post, there's a possibility that there will be a negative difficulty change. Small one, and there are still ~6.4 days to go, but what type of impact would this have on BTC prices?

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,581,348,249 (-1.78%)
Adjust time:   After 905 Blocks, About 6.4 days

Price at Bitfinex = 368.5 USD

Any guesses?
Difficulty has little observed effect on price. Difficulty has gone to the moon while the price went down slightly.

Price affects hash rate. Miners who are losing money drop out.
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