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241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 28, 2014, 07:46:45 PM
What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.



No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.
242  Economy / Speculation / Re: What to expect from bitcoin in December 2014? on: November 28, 2014, 08:11:49 AM
December will probably be a lot like the last few months, price wandering around in the $300 - $400 range.
243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the winklevoss ETF failed on: November 28, 2014, 08:08:56 AM
If you actually read the ETF's prospectus on the SEC site, the terms are not very good. Compared to a good mutual fund, they're awful. For example, the managers of the ETF do not hold errors, omissions, or theft insurance in case they happen to somehow lose the Bitcoins. Owners of fund shares have weakened voting and litigation rights. Stuff like that. There are more risks here than the value of Bitcoin.
244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: November 27, 2014, 07:27:47 AM
Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.
245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price on: November 27, 2014, 07:18:36 AM
Looking at the difficulty estimate from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty at the time of this post, there's a possibility that there will be a negative difficulty change. Small one, and there are still ~6.4 days to go, but what type of impact would this have on BTC prices?

Estimated Next Difficulty:   39,581,348,249 (-1.78%)
Adjust time:   After 905 Blocks, About 6.4 days

Price at Bitfinex = 368.5 USD

Any guesses?
Difficulty has little observed effect on price. Difficulty has gone to the moon while the price went down slightly.

Price affects hash rate. Miners who are losing money drop out.
246  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Changes to the Alogrithm Prohibited or disputed? on: November 27, 2014, 07:15:58 AM
I get the impression that you don't understand what the word "consensus" means or how difficult it is to change it once it is established.
"Consensus" for Bitcoin means the people behind enough mining pools to control > 50% of the hash rate. What end users want is irrelevant.
247  Economy / Speculation / Re: The mood on: November 25, 2014, 07:12:50 PM
I am terrible at market timing and technical analysis.
In previous BTC crashes, I was euphoric at the top even though I should have known better. I actually bought a little at the top!
I might be the "stupid money".
It's people like you who keep Bitcoin going! Bitcoin is zero sum - for every winner, there has to be a loser. We need all the suckers we can get! Keep trading!
248  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / The Bitcoin hype is over on: November 21, 2014, 07:25:43 PM

Google Trends for "Bitcoin" searches.

The first peak in 2011 is when Bitcoin got initial attention.
The second peak in mid-2013 is the China bubble.
The third and biggest peak in 2014 is the Mt. Gox collapse.

The first two were when the two big Bitcoin runups happened.  The Mt. Gox collapse, no so much.

Post Mt. Gox, the hype level has been modest, and the price has been flat or declining.
249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Rally To Resume? on: November 21, 2014, 08:18:03 AM
What we're seeing looks like a thinly traded pink sheet stock followed by momentum investors. When the price happens to go up, buyers pile on and run the price up for a short period. The same thing happens in the other direction. Neither effect lasts very long. That's sort of the last 6-8 months of Bitcoin, since the China bubble popped.
250  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: More than a year and still no consensus on uBTC unit? Consensus is overrated? on: November 20, 2014, 06:27:31 AM
Right. At $375, this is a non-problem. 
251  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 3 Bitcoin Doomsday Scenarios I can't find much discussion on... on: November 15, 2014, 08:05:04 PM
If someone cracked the hash algorithm, or found a cheaper way to compute it, they'd make a lot of money, difficulty would go to the moon, but the rate of Bitcoin creation would not increase. Just like when ASICs came in.
252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Well that didn't last long... on: November 13, 2014, 10:18:40 PM
This looks like momentum traders.  Nothing has happened to affect the price much in the last two weeks, other than the head of Silk Road 2 being arrested. It may even be 'bots doing momentum trading driving the rally and selloff all by themselves.

Momentum traders have the effect of amplifying any little change and increasing volatility. They don't affect the long term price much one way or the other.

It's possible to make a lot of money momentum trading.  Especially if you have some edge like access to the transaction flow at an exchange, and can front-run. Mt. Gox, before they tanked, seemed to have a lot of that.
253  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Number of Transactions touching All Time High on: November 11, 2014, 08:54:04 PM
Its all margin trading bots anyways. Transaction volume doesn't reflect the demand. Its all bot.
Compare  volume in US dollars, which is flat.

There are more transactions, but the transaction size is dropping. This suggests 'bots busily making little trades.
254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price Alert! Bitcoin is lower than 12 months ago on: November 09, 2014, 05:24:47 AM
How come some really big bitcoin farms are in China? How can the owners sell their bitcoins?
Because that's "manufacturing and exporting".  That's a permitted way to get value out of China. It's not in yuan yet, so exchange controls don't apply. I suspect some of those Bitcoin mining farms are even getting industrial development loans.
255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price Alert! Bitcoin is lower than 12 months ago on: November 08, 2014, 06:26:54 PM
A year ago, we had the start of the China-driven bubble. China has exchange controls; it's hard to get money out of China.
For a few months, Bitcoins were a safe, easy, legal, online way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars and euros.

Then the People's Bank of China cracked down on Bitcoins. The bubble popped. It took a while to run down, and now it's over.
256  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Good news! Gavin Andresen: I think everybody should switch to talking in "bits" on: November 04, 2014, 08:52:16 PM
This is a year too late. When "Bitcoin was going to the moon", maybe it mattered. Now, not so much.
257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss COIN -- Will it even matter? And how much? on: November 04, 2014, 06:30:38 AM
The Winkelvoss EFT is a dump. They bought a lot of Bitcoins, enough that if they sold them on any Bitcoin exchange, they'd crash the price. Now they want out.  The EFT is a way for them to sell their Bitcoins, hopefully without crashing the market.

It's probably too late for that. They need a big supply of dumb money to exit this way.
258  Economy / Speculation / Re: No more rallies for a looong time on: November 03, 2014, 08:15:43 AM
There might not be rallies soon but volume argument is one of the worst you might use for it as the volume in October was the biggest in last 7-8 months.
The number of transactions is up, but the total amount of the transactions is not.
259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Foundation to repair relationship with community on: November 03, 2014, 05:44:51 AM
I like the part where they say they can no longer rely on Bitcoin appreciation to fund the foundation. That's realistic.
260  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I warned you on: November 03, 2014, 05:43:21 AM
Quote
One goes down they all go down.

Well, of course. That's how multiple exchanges work. If there's any significant price difference between exchanges, somebody will buy on one and sell on another, and the prices will equalize. The prices will close up to the cost of the transaction, which is a few percent on Bitcoin exchanges.

This is arbitrage.

If you see a significant difference between exchanges, that's a bad sign. It means there's trouble getting funds out of some exchange. Remember when Mt. Gox was far higher than anyone else?  That was because most investors couldn't get funds out of Mt. Gox.

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