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181  Economy / Economics / Re: Predicted Price of BTC on: March 13, 2014, 01:38:50 PM
Yeah, that would be sick if it could scan news articles. That would be extremely complicated though, I wouldn't even know how to begin lol.

And you are right about it being less accurate when prices start to change a lot due to real-world events. However, even during the course of a spike or crash that resulted from something in the news, there are still patterns that the prices follow. Spikes and crashes may tend to play out in similar manners, and if the software detects that a spike/crash is occurring it may be able to predict how it will play out. To be honest though, this is more what I'm hoping rather than what I know. The software learns how to predict based on the entire history of transactions on bitstamp, so it has seen spikes/crashes. I haven't had a huge number of opportunities to see how well this software performs during spikes/crashes, but we'll see how it works as soon as the prices start fluctuating more I guess. Hopefully it will perform reasonably well.
182  Economy / Economics / Re: Predicted Price of BTC on: March 13, 2014, 05:17:21 AM
Good idea, but you are basing your numbers on a timeframe where there has been barely any volatility. Look at how tight of a range there has been for the high and low in the past week or so, there hasn't been much movement. You should test your algorithm when things start rapidly moving.

It is true that the price is pretty stable right now, but the figures for average error are based on predictions during tens of thousands of points throughout the history of the exchange (bitstamp). The software looks at sections of prices in the past and tries to predict what the price became after those sections. It compares its prediction to the actual price data, and averages the errors for all of the predictions at each point in the historic data. That is how I got the figures 1.35% and 2.62% for average errors.

So basically what I'm saying is that the figures for average error are based on predictions made both during stable time periods and volatile time periods. However, you are still right - it is true that this is much more accurate when the price is less volatile. When the price starts changing a lot, it could have larger errors in predictions. This is mostly the case when real-world events affect the price of bitcoin, since obviously there is no way the software can foresee something like mt gox getting hacked or china changing its policy on bitcoins.

Quote from: g27wr
I wonder what will happen on 3/17 around noon to make the price drop to $318.

I hope it does so I can buy more  Grin

Nice easy setup with the site. As a web designer, I'm looking forward to seeing how this works out. Good luck!

Haha crap I think that's an error... gonna have to fix that. Thanks for pointing that out lol

Edit: It's been fixed - thanks again for pointing that out! Gonna have to watch out for problems like that.
183  Economy / Economics / Predicted Price of BTC on: March 13, 2014, 01:32:57 AM
Hey guys,

This is my first post here and I'd like to show you guys a project I've been working on that is pretty relevant. I've been working for a few months on writing software that analyzes the history of bitcoin transactions and finds patterns in the rise and fall of prices. The software then predicts future prices based on these patterns, and it has a surprisingly low average error (~1.35% for prices within 24 hours and ~2.62% for prices within 5 days).

Well anyway if you are interested you can learn a lot more about the project on this website, which displays charts showing the predicted prices:
www.btcpredictions.com

The data is automatically updated every hour on the hour. Let me know what you guys think, I would greatly appreciate any feedback!
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