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21  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 13, 2014, 01:33:45 PM
Things are getting serious now, 52 people have pledge for the multipool. A real community is emerging.

Donation for community coin multipool creation:

xtester - 10k
bytedisorder - 10k
cryptolemaik - 10k
shinep - 5k
pabloangello - 10k
Nxtblg - 20k
brightlight - 10k
qiwoman - 5k
baby222 - 5k
greenclover - 10k
schnötzel - 10k
EbonHawk - 10k
djm34 - 5k
mmedinas - 10k
Hash72 - 7k
Jengo - 10k
doremi - 5k
JamesOng - 10k
jalmari - 5k
poncom - 5k
Rune - 5k
Equate - 5k
ple - 10k
fudge - 10k
lemfuture - 5k
XCASH - 5k
illiki23 - 10k
celebreze32 - 10k
lumeire - 10k
Secondleo - 10k
neilh - 20k
SomeRelax - 5k
kocur - 5k
Ayle56 - 5k
RhodaGila - 20k
K128kevin - 20k - If he is allowed to join.
Evilish - 10k
*Sakura* - 50k
iwandhdumas2003 - 5k
sha0908 - 5k
50cent_rapper - 5k
1btcdream - 5k
qgmurugan007 - 5k
jcarl987 - 10k
Turpomann - 10k
bluewhackadoo - 10k - If he is allowed to join.
wasamata - 5k
dload.1 - 5k
templebar - 5k
apurvslam - 10k
december23 - 5k
wizzardTim - 5k

Community with a good spirit. Let's keep it that way.

As usual ignore the trolls.

P.S. For now we are only pledging to donate. Adriano has accepted to handle the implementation of the multipool for us.

The multipool will allow people to mine the most profitable coins and automatically convert them and pay miners in communitycoins. This was one of the main reasons behind blackcoins steady price increase.

Great progress. Does anybody else want to donate?

Mintpal vote update: 5340 and counting.

We are continuing to vote for mintpal not because we want to dump the coins,  but to raise the value of our coins by adding a reputable and well known exchange to our services. People dumping their coins just after we get listed would make a stupid move. Just look around.

Keep up the good work dev and keep us updated on whatever happens.

Big update: Multipool might be ready on monday! So keep your coins safe and bring some ideas that could add real value to the community.

I think after the second round there will be some stakes left over. If the dev and the community agrees we should put 1 or 2 stakes in a faucet. But we should distribute them very careful not to create a price crush by distributing too may coins without any contribution made.

P.P.S. If we work hard, launch the multipool, finish the distribution, land on mintpal, finish the website and do the other stuff on the list of brightlight, we could easily reach and surpass 1000 satoshi.

Thanks.

I'll donate 10K

I'll gladly donate 10K, just waiting for my stake.
Bad news.

It seems I got rejected.Sad

 
22  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 12, 2014, 07:26:36 PM
Voted on MinPal 5: 4689 - 4694

Will update this reply with new votes


I think we need http://comm.blockx.info

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
23  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 12, 2014, 06:33:45 PM
Great news, we are 34 now. Slowly the community comes together.

Donation for community coin multipool creation:

xtester - 10k
bytedisorder - 10k
cryptolemaik - 10k
shinep - 5k
pabloangello - 10k
Nxtblg - 20k
brightlight - 10k
qiwoman - 5k
baby222 - 5k
greenclover - 10k
schnötzel - 10k
EbonHawk - 10k
djm34 - 5k
mmedinas - 10k
Hash72 - 5k
Jengo - 10k
doremi - 5k
JamesOng - 10k
jalmari - 5k
poncom - 5k
Rune - 5k
Equate - 5k
ple - 10k
fudge - 10k
lemfuture - 5k
XCASH - 5k
illiki23 - 10k
celebreze32 - 10k
lumeire - 10k
Secondleo - 10k
neilh - 20k
SomeRelax - 5k
kocur - 5k
Ayle56 - 5k

As usual ignore the trolls.

P.S. For now we are only pledging to donate. Does someone know a dev which would be able to execute the multipool for CommunityCoin?

The multipool will allow people to mine the most profitable coins and automatically convert them and pay miners in communitycoins. This was one of the main reasons behind blackcoins steady price increase.

Great progress. Anybody else?

Mintpal vote update: 4579 and counting. 

We are continuing to vote for mintpal not because we want to dump the coins,  but to raise the value of our coins by adding a reputable and well known exchange to our services. People dumping their coins just after we get listed would make a stupid move. Just look around.

Keep up the good work dev and keep us updated on whatever happens.

Thanks.

20k i am ready for Communitycoin multipool!
Keep voted!

I think this community is the most powerful community.I will donate 20k if I am in.

I did the application 10 minutes ago.

The distribution is coming to its end now and I expect I can catch up the train.   

Thank you,dev.
24  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 12, 2014, 06:16:53 PM
1) somebody warn block explorer to the latest updated 1.3 COMM version
2) delivery completed  for up to now, only 2 waiting i asked them by pm to verify if they really applied.

So we have still in need about 50 people and we will reach 480 when we get 480 or so i accept manual appeal process for those who believes should get comm. And complete 500. Hope we reach it in 7 days or less. Please keep thread active so new people can drop.

then we will process those who get before 1 m, who accepted abiding the rules, with extra 1 m. (as community majority voted so)


 
I don't know why it's stay at activity 42.
I have over 160 posts but still can't reach activity 50.
If I miss comm,I think I will be very sad....

Sad



You don't need to have activity rating 50

You need to have at least 50 posts, presumably with reasonable content.

Well,I got it.

Thank you.
25  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 12, 2014, 05:53:43 PM
1) somebody warn block explorer to the latest updated 1.3 COMM version
2) delivery completed  for up to now, only 2 waiting i asked them by pm to verify if they really applied.

So we have still in need about 50 people and we will reach 480 when we get 480 or so i accept manual appeal process for those who believes should get comm. And complete 500. Hope we reach it in 7 days or less. Please keep thread active so new people can drop.

then we will process those who get before 1 m, who accepted abiding the rules, with extra 1 m. (as community majority voted so)


 
I don't know why it's stay at activity 42.
I have over 160 posts but still can't reach activity 50.
If I miss comm,I think I will be very sad....

Sad

26  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN]Faircoin - The First Fairly Distributed coin. MULTIPOOL We added 5% bonus on: April 12, 2014, 05:42:51 PM
I think this is a very nice altcoin as the communitycoin.

If you miss fac train,get on the comm spaceship asap now.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=558319.0
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 12, 2014, 05:25:13 PM
So did you test your prediction against real future prices? Because that is what counts. To make a 3 layer neural network is not rocket science. But I don't know what input data you use. Only the 4mio. transactions? (where did you get them?)

I just used random times. Not news based. You saw the times I posted. I don't think they were news based(?) (+ the prediction you made in this thread). I used to work for a company to make predictions about sales and now I work a master thesis about nearly the same. I think I have some idea about statistics. You know about the normal distribution? 6 predictions 500% over the average estimate. Really? This is nearly unlikely like a lottery ticket.

Ok, another one. 1pm. 1pm it estimates 380$ for tomorrow. The 1.3% range is 375 and 385$. Let's see!

PS: You should use test data. Take your network for 1.4 backwards and test it to predict the price of 2.4. and so on. Then you get real prediction (maybe you should not use the last 2 voltatile days)

Once again, you are asking questions that you would know the answer to if you read my site. You can see where I originally got the data from on the website (and I've been updating it using the bitstamp API since then).

Also making a 3-layer neural network is not rocket science but it's definitely very far from a simple task as well. Even a 2 layer neural network is complicated. Any number of layers above that, though, would be of equal difficulty to create.

Pretty soon I'm going to have charts up showing actual prices vs predicted prices. If you really want to do some measurement yourself though, you obviously can't just pick random times. You have to look at all 24 predictions from multiple 24 hour predictions and compare them to the actual prices, and take the average of those errors. In order to really get a solid measurement of this system's accuracy you would have to do this (as in test 24 predictions) at least like 40 or 50 times (and this is still a very small sample) and it would have to be over the course of at least a few weeks. Honestly, this would give you a tenuous grasp of the system's accuracy at best. 6 "random" predictions gives you absolutely zero indication of its accuracy.
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Interesting short-term price prediction on: April 12, 2014, 05:13:52 PM
Hpotsirc - Yeah it seems to be much better at predicting the time of peaks/dips, which I guess is really what is most important. I'm still working on some new methods though that might help it become more accurate at predicting actual magnitudes of price changes.

jdun - Yeah I'm not sure what will happen, I wouldn't be surprised whether these predictions are right or completely wrong. As I've mentioned, the neural network does not know about real life events like the exchanges closing that day. In the past month ish, when news stories have occurred it has caused predictions to be less accurate for a short time. I am very curious to see what will happen in the couple days following the 15th though.
29  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CommunityCoin (COMM) Fair & FREE Distribution | Pure PoS | Join Community on: April 12, 2014, 04:38:42 PM
Free coin?Oh,it's cool.I was never got free coins.

Is it too late to get on this spaceship?Huh

30  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 11, 2014, 06:22:49 PM
OK... thanks for the explanation. BTC is rising now, it has reached $425. Let's see whether it will reach $475, as you had predicted.

I think that the neural network often overestimates the magnitude of spikes like this. My guess would be that it will reach about $460 but we'll see.
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 11, 2014, 04:31:49 PM
Extremely confusing. Here is why:

a) 24-hour prediction for 10 pm 11th April 2014 to 10 pm 12th Apr : Bitcoin will rise from $422 to $470+, and then go back to sub-400 levels.
b) 5-day prediction, separated for the same time period as above: Bitcoin fairly stable, at $403 to $406. No spikes, no dips.

How can the prediction differ, for the same time-period?

The reason they differ right now is that the 5-day prediction looks at averages over 6 hour periods. Because of this, it doesn't really know about the returning rise in price that took place recently, so it hasn't been able to update accordingly. I'm currently working on having the 5-day prediction look at smaller time intervals but it is difficult because this greatly increases run time.

Basically they are just two different neural networks with 2 different sets of inputs. Most of the time they pretty much agree, but sometimes there are disparities between them (like now).
32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 11, 2014, 04:29:40 PM
So you saying you run your neural network on learning data and then test against test data and so you come to the error of 1.3%? Then my used sample of 6 would be a pretty amazing coincidance. Because I just picked 6 random times when I just thought about it. But because not of the real future predictions is even close to 1.3%, my guess is you just use one set of data and the 1.3% is for the learning data itself.

So am I right?

Ok, I took the opening price at Bitstamp. Do you use Bitstamp prices? Anyhow, if I use the average price it will still not even get close to that 1.3%.

So, we can make the test. You use bitstamp prices and when you make a prediction at 4pm for 4pm the other day, what average price do you predict? From 3-4pm or from 4-5pm? Than we can check together? (do you save your predictions?)

1. Yes you are right. I use the same ~4 million transactions to train as to test. Training on the entire history of transactions makes the neural network more accurate, and testing on the same data it is trained on does not reduce accuracy at all because the data is so large that it would be impossible for the neural network to attain an average error of 1.3% without having the ability to generalize.

The problem of testing on a training set is only relevant when the neural network is specifying to the training data and therefore, incapable of generalizing. I don't know how much you know about neural networks, but a 3-layer neural network can represent any continuous function, but nothing beyond that. The bitcoin historic data has so many transactions that no continuous function could possibly be specified to the data. In order to attain any reasonable error it would have to generalize.

2. It sounds like you didn't choose times randomly at all - you chose times when you were thinking about it, which were probably times when news was affecting the price or just times when the predictions were actually wrong. And if it were truly random, then yes, it would be a coincidence (not coincidance).

3. You would know that I use Bitstamp prices if you had read the first line of text on my website (besides the follow on twitter/like on facebook bit). But anyway, you shouldn't be trying to run these "studies" on my data if you haven't even read about what anything on the website is.

4. Also this is probably pretty self-evident but taking 6 data points to try to determine accuracy is like rolling a 6 sided die 2 times to see what percent of the time it lands on each side. It's not even remotely close to accurate and you shouldn't frame it to be so.

*Sorry if I'm being kind of a dick here, but it just annoys me when people take 6 bad predictions and then claim that this is indicative of the entire system's accuracy. Especially when I am currently presenting this data for free, and it is likely much more accurate than any human would be able to predict.

Also yes I do save my predictions, and you will be able to see charts with predictions matched up against actual data hopefully in the next few days. I have a lot of work coming up though so we'll see.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 11, 2014, 04:12:04 PM
Ok, 7 pages of the thread now.

The guy missed for a Dodger's Stadium wide, can we let this thread die?

Damn, noone seemed to say this.

There is no system. Maybe someday Psychohistory will be developed. Not this year. And definitely not this guy.

*Goes back to play satoshidice*

lol really? Does it really bother you that much that this thread exists? It's not even talking about the prediction anymore (which was definitely at least partly successful in that it predicted for the price to spike upward, only it didn't spike upward quite as much as initially predicted).

And why is it that you say "this guy" definitely will not be the one to develop a successful system for predicting bitcoin prices? It seems like "this guy" already has.
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 11, 2014, 01:50:59 PM
A universe without god needs randomness. Finding what causes randomness could be impossible, but that doesn't make it any less true. Things like radioactive decay appear to happen for no reason. Things appear random on a quantum level, while on a larger scale they don't appear random at all. It may be just a truth we have to accept unless something else comes along.

If anything caused randomness then it wouldn't be random. I think you are mistaking randomness with phenomena that we can't explain. Just because we don't know what causes something or because something appears random to us doesn't mean that it actually is random. In fact, human history seems to continually prove that things we attribute to magic or just randomness actually have scientific causes and are far from random.
35  Economy / Speculation / Interesting short-term price prediction on: April 11, 2014, 01:38:42 PM
Hey guys, I'm sure a lot of you have seen my project/website which uses artificial neural networks to make bitcoin price predictions:

www.btcpredictions.com

I've mentioned before that it has some trouble with predictions when events in the news are significantly affecting the price (like now) but I thought I would post an interesting prediction it is making right now anyway. It seems to think that the price is going to rise relatively quickly into the upper $400s and then fall back down to the $420s over the next 24 hours, peaking around midnight EST. I definitely have some doubts about its correctness myself but it will be interesting to see what happens.

Often times when the 24 hour chart predicts big fluctuations like this, what happens is that fluctuations occur but to a much smaller degree than predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if we see prices go up to around $450 or $460 and then fall back down to something like $430. At any rate though, I think there will be some volatility today and I look forward to seeing what happens!
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: I AM HODLING on: April 10, 2014, 11:56:28 PM
Coming to to theatres near you.........................................................

THE HODLING: A Bitcoin Story

My $.02.

Wink

I really like your eye patch
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 10, 2014, 11:55:00 PM
I don't know if this method adds any value. You read about an error of 1.3% on a daily basis. This is a flaw because this only counts for ex ante predictions. Not for acutal predictions into the future. For example he made the prediction of 480$. The real price was around 440$. This is an error of 8.3%.

I watched it for a while and checked:
30.march 3pm it predicted 489$. Real price (24h later) was: 455$ (7%error)
31.3. 12am he predicted 465$. Real price was: 486$ (4.3%)
1.4. 1am he predicted 456$. Real price was: 485$ (6.3%)
1.4. 8pm he predicted 466$. Real price was: 434$ (6.9%)
2.4. 11am he predicted 449$. Real price was: 422$ (6%)

So there is an average error of about 6%.

So is that good or bad? We can just estimate that quickly. Take the prediction: "Price today is the price in 24h". This is just the volatility. I took the hourly prices of bitstamp and compared it to the value 24h later. The mean error was 3.8%.

-> So if you just guess that the current price is the price in 24h you drive better than with this prediction of the neural network (although I just made a sample of 6 predictions of it).

There are several things wrong with this data you are providing.

First of all, I'm not sure how you chose the specific times you tested, but they are clearly it's worst predictions. As you said, you only took a sample of 6 predictions. Every hour I take a sample of something like 60,000 predictions and calculate the average error. It comes to about 1.3%, so actually that is the correct figure (not 6%). Furthermore, this means that if the average deviation during 24 hours is 3.8%, then these predictions perform WAY better than just guessing the same price.

Second, it sounds like you are comparing predictions to the price at that moment. The prices predicted are not the price at that specific hour - they are the average price over the course of that hour. I do state this a few times on the website, including in the main description of the charts on the home page.

Third of all, the average errors actually are an under-representation of its accuracy because it updates every hour. When it predicts an hourly price incorrectly, it readjusts predictions so that they will be more accurate.

And lastly, if I could tell you the future error of my predictions, they wouldn't really be predictions would they? They would be science fiction lol...
38  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Coinbase Stealing You're Bitcoin on: April 10, 2014, 10:49:08 PM
Coinbase is a business not a charity. Their sole purpose is to make money. How can you expect them to NOT charge transaction fees? Those fees are why the company exists. This isn't a bad thing, they provide a really good service. They make it easy to buy, sell, and own bitcoins. This obviously is going to come at a small price.
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 10, 2014, 10:34:43 PM
Most probably:
350 within 1 week.
300 within 2 weeks.
250 within 3 weeks
200 within 1 month.

 Undecided

Hmmm I think that the price will move faster than that. If it keeps crashing, I think it will be below $200 in one month. Otherwise, I think it will have spiked back up to at least like $500. I would be surprised to see a slow and steady fall like that.
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours on: April 10, 2014, 10:27:52 PM
Is the algorithm based on some sort of last couple of days moving average? It constantly says price will go up.

It doesn't always say that the price will go up, it has successfully predicted dips in price before.

But yes, it looks at the last 60 hours for the 24 hour prediction. However, it learns how to predict by looking at the entire price history on bitstamp, going about 3 years back. The model it uses is called an artificial neural network. You can read about them on Wikipedia or a bunch of other sites if you are interested.
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