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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / How Would You Enter Now, Sell close to the top, then Rebuy at Dip? on: December 31, 2020, 08:02:58 AM
I know this is kind of gambling, but if you were to go at it how would you do it?

I would thinking of waiting for a obvious breakout pattern--fast price action upwards. And if I can catch it early then buy then sell at the buy price as a maker so I only lose the fees.

While sleeping I'll leave the order open and set a price alert on my phone to wake me up. Then Once the pattern stops  and reaches a horizontal phase I'll sell.

Then I'll devise a new plan from there, maybe the same thing repeat.

2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Selling at $27K, then getting back in around $27.8K if breakout seems likely? on: December 31, 2020, 07:50:44 AM
isn't the range a bit too small? You might even get yourself less profit than you'd expect due to fees tbh, since the period now may have quite a large traffic in the network due to Bitcoin being as it is right now, and well, people having a hard time discovering when a correction will happen. Still, profit is still profit so it's honestly up to you, but I'd honestly wait a bit more, especially if you're not really a day trader. There haven't really been any major blocks to Bitcoin after making it past $22,$23k, so might as well wait for that block to happen before exiting. I'd suggest watching it right now, especially since we just hit $29k, so there may be some changes you can see depending on if it breaks $30k or not.

I agree with you. I'm happy selling at 27 but I should have bought back in at 27.2 and just held I wanted to but I hesitated, then I got back in at 27.7, freaked out then sold at 27.7. Then got back in at 27.9 and set up a stop loss as 27.4 and literally it closed by $15 I was so bummed. I didn't know about the triangle thing.

That's why I hate doing this without some kind of coach or multiple coaches that can give me pointers and then i can make the decision at the end. i can't learn all this as fast as the market is moving. I have a job. But I don't want to miss out on this run.

I looked into this one funds manager but they required 5 mil. I'm looking for more. I'm not gonna give anyone custody. i just want to someone I can ask questions to and guidance so I don't keep making these mistakes.

I'd like to get back in again if it's going to go to 40K before correcting which I think there is a good chance. I'm thinking of waiting until 30K though. But again, I don't know how to go about this the best way?

I just hate that I've sold a little over 40 percent of my holdings now at prices that are not as good as they could have been if I had guidance or a coach.
3  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Air-gapping 2 devices vs. Trezor/Ledger? on: December 31, 2020, 02:03:15 AM
Please critique my proposed setup:

1) Use a reputable-brand USB stick (Sandisk, PNY, Kingston). Put portable electrum, veracrypt, and wallet files on it. Encrypt it with 20+ character password using AES.

2) Use 2 raspberry pi devices. One always offline. One online , but only for crypto transactions.

3) Display. Do I need 1 for each device?

Could the online device get malware, transfer it to the display, and then display transfer it to the offline device?

4) When transferring the transaction file between devices do I need to use an encrypted USB for this?
4  Economy / Speculation / No Resistance From $30K-$40K? on: December 31, 2020, 01:28:09 AM
I was watching someone on youtube. What I got was that if BTC hits $30K , there should be no resistance (I assume this means less resistance that previously) to get to $40K.

What do you think?

He was sighting how $30K is a psychology barrier. You guys probably know who I'm talking about it.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Selling at $27K, then getting back in around $27.8K if breakout seems likely? on: December 31, 2020, 12:48:49 AM
Your risk to reward ratio is small and may not be really worth it to take the risk. If you're scared out and sold at the $27k level, then you should wait awhile for a correction before buying back and not just rush in. It's bad trading practice to buy back higher than one sold. However, to the best of my perspicacity, I really don't think Bitcoin is in for a crash now. There may be minor corrections on the way and those corrections aren't worth the risk of selling off to buy back later, in my opinion anyway. You can play with the alts by taking your chances but doing that with Bitcoin is taking a huge risk. Bitcoin will continue to soar well into 2021.

How low do you think the next correction will go?

Also what's your prediction as far as at what BTC price range it will onset?

Thanks
6  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Air-gapping 2 devices vs. Trezor/Ledger? on: December 28, 2020, 07:34:49 PM
Are AES encrypted USB Flash Drives (PNY or San Disk) susceptible to hardware exploits like the Trezor?

Another problem I see with Trezor is that if an officer stops you and searches you and knows what a Trezor is then he can take it, and from what I've read it only takes 15 minutes to hardware exploit it. Good luck trying to actual go through litigation and get it back or prove anything during that route.

I feel really uneasy with my Trezor knowing that hardware exploit is possible, especially in 15 minutes. And then Ledger is closed source which makes me uneasy. Ugh. Tough decisions.
7  Economy / Speculation / Selling at $27K, then getting back in around $27.8K if breakout seems likely? on: December 28, 2020, 07:21:07 PM
I've held since 2015, and held past the 2017 crash, never cashing out until 2019 (at bad times) and 2020 (at bad times, and some "medium" times, i.e. 15K).

I'd like to get some out at least 27K but not miss out if it goes higher. Of course I'm willing to take relatively minor losses in order to not miss out if it goes higher.

The way I see is it that if BTC can hold above 27500ish for 12h-24h and then begins trending toward 28K-28.5K then I can buy back in and see if a breakout occurs.

But I also feel that if BTC goes below 24700, and holds below then we will see a further dip.

Instead of selling at 24700ish, I'd rather sell now at $27K or maybe even $27.3ish if I can, and then get back in around $27.7K-$28.3K, lower the better minimal loss

Of course I lose $700-1000 in doing this, but I lose more selling at 24700.

Now if it goes from $28.3 back down (false breakout) then I could sell again at at 27.3.  I could do this about 2-3 times (2-3 false breakouts) and it would be equivalent in a way to just waiting and selling at 24700.

I'd like to hear some opinions,  maybe I'm overlooking something?

8  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Air-gapping 2 devices vs. Trezor/Ledger? on: December 28, 2020, 03:19:50 AM
So I'm thinking about just moving my funds to my own devices as described above....I do you think I would like to hear some opinions?
I think it's a great idea. I stopped using my Trezor devices completely after the revelation of their unpatchable critical vulnerability. I have now also stopped using my Ledger devices after their recent security breach, even though I was unaffected, as I simply have zero trust left in the company. I always used airgapped storage for my long term cold storage, but I am now using it for the majority of my coins, with only a small amount of day-to-day spending money being held in hot software wallets.

You clearly understand the basics, but I'll mention a few additional things that people often overlook which are important for such a set up.

  • The airgapped computer must be clean and free from malware. The best way to achieve this is to format it and then install a fresh copy of an open source Linux distro.
  • The airgapped computer must be permanently airgapped. Remove all connectivity hardware if you can. Install your Linux distro from a USB drive, and then install your bitcoin wallet from a USB drive as well. Do not connect to the internet with your airgapped computer to download your wallet software.
  • Verify both your OS and wallet prior to installing them.
  • Ideally, use full disk encryption to protect your airgapped computer from physical access. LUKS is good for Linux. VeraCrypt is also good.
  • If you can use webcams to transfer transactions back and forth via QR codes, then this removes the possibility of accidentally and unknowingly transferring malware via a USB drive. The webcams should be unplugged when not being actively used for your own privacy.

Let me make sure I interpreting this correctly.

So, if I went to best buy I bought 2 HP laptops with Windows 10, I should be concerned that there may be malware in them even if they don't go online--perhaps by some of the pre-installed software?

Also, what do you suggest to be a lightweight option. I travel a lot and if I took this route I'd like to not have to carry around 2 laptops with me all the time. This weight issue might be the only reason I stick with Trezor.

I was hoping I can just use 2 phones (remove wifi card and antenna of the offline one)?
9  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Air-gapping 2 devices vs. Trezor/Ledger? on: December 28, 2020, 03:12:40 AM
The main difference between a hardware wallet with proprietary firmware/hardware (such as Ledger's Secure Element) and a PC that has proprietary firmware/hardware is to me that the latter can be purchased from batches that have been produced before Bitcoin's inception. It makes me paranoid that a hardware wallet, which has been specifically created to hold cryptocurrencies on it, has closed-source components in it.
There's no guarantees that there are possible backdoors or vulnerabilities that could be intentionally or inadvertently inserted as well. If it's of any assurance, some hardware wallets are actually audited regularly and/or has their schematics and firmware open source online. That's the reason why I bought a ColdCard.

To be fair, NSA did try to backdoor Linux quite a few times. Doesn't make it any more safer than an opensource firmware which certain HW wallet manufacturers provide.



What keeps me in between cold wallets and hardware ones is that HWs come with a preinstalled, verified OS compared to cold wallets for which you download and verify everything on your own, which means you make your own security. Makes me a bit anxious that I might be creating a cold wallet and not verifying everything the right way, making all my funds poof in a matter of milliseconds. I could be sending 0.05BTC as a test and leave it there for a month, just to test whether it's a malicious version or not - only to send everything else there after a month's passed, without knowing I have a malicious version that steals funds from BTC wallets once the balance goes past 0.1BTC.

On the other hand, the fact that HWs come with preinstalled OS is also bad, especially in extreme cases such as Snowden's. You could easily be a target and have a malicious OS installed on it.
You can build and compile the firmware yourself. You can also build your own ColdCard[1].

IMO, verifying something is often referred to comparing the hashes and/or using the PGP signature file to authenticate authenticity. When such an argument about security (with a high degree of paranoia) is put forth, the rational thinking is to assume that everything is compromised, not being able to trust the OS and thus reading through the entire source code and understanding how everything works. In this scenario, I would prefer to scour through the firmware of HW wallets since they're relatively light weight and more transparent than most.


[1] https://github.com/Coldcard/firmware/tree/master/hardware

I really do want to believe that the HW wallet audits of source code and firmware...as well as hardware are being done thoroughly. And that a number of people with as much expertise as the security team members at these big crypto companies --at least in the context of the HW audit--are doing them.

One reason I have skepticism lies in the fact that Gerald Cotton's (QuadricaCX) business partner supposedly had a sketchy past from what I read online--such that if Quadrica clients knew about his past then I'd doubt they'd feel safe having their funds in custody of the company. BUT why didn't people search the background of the Quadrica top dawgs BEFORE SHTF?

If I was the average user of QuadricaCX before SHTF I would probably have just passively assumed that everyone had audited the background of the those involved in the company. Similar to how I assume people have done this background with all the big exchanges right now ( do they?).

I find the line of reasoning very similar to how people on reddit say "don't worry the source code is open and firmware is open" [and just assume it's audited by experts].

Also just wanted to throw in there that if there was perfect time for Ledger to do an exit (or not even necessarily exit) scam it would be now given the high price of BTC and probably the lowest ever approval rating for the company. Even if 1 or 2 out of every 100 wallets lose funds it would be hard to prove fraud. They could probably get away with it. I doubt they will do something like that, but I'm just saying.
10  Other / Beginners & Help / Air-gapping 2 devices vs. Trezor/Ledger? on: December 27, 2020, 07:46:04 AM
When I say air gap, I mean using 2 devices only to be used for crypto transactions. One of them is always offline. The other only
goes online to broadcast a transaction. Signing the transaction is done on the offline computer using a USB flash, which is then
put into the online device to broadcast.

I have both Trezor and Ledger, and I have always been skeptical about keeping my funds in a device where a company has the potential (not saying they do it, probably not, but I feel uneasy due to the potential) to have control of them whether through firmware exploit, hardware exploit (bugging 1 out of every 100 devices, when only 1  out of 100 people whine, the other 99 will be quick to assume they did some kind of goof up themselves), or some other method.   

I've read some bad stories about people losing funds during the updates and I believe most of them. Recently was bummed to read that Trezor has a hardware exploit, so if someone gets their hands on my device they can take my funds. And then Ledger is closed-source.

So I'm thinking about just moving my funds to my own devices as described above....I do you think I would like to hear some opinions?
11  Economy / Trading Discussion / Long-Term HODL With No Strategy Needs Some Guidance on: December 27, 2020, 03:52:41 AM
I've already sold 1/3 of my holdings and all seemed to be at really bad times. I have had no strategy. I have followed the price and watched a few videos a few times a month--most of them the terminology is over my head, but up until a few days ago I did not know anything about technical analysis.

I really regretfully sold a large chunk at 15K because I choose a bad stop loss. It was as 15.8K when I placed the order and I just choose 14.8K as the stop loss without any strategy. A few days later I came across a video that suggested 13.8K would have been a good stop loss.

I also sold at 6-7K in 2019, and even a little at $5K in march this year, but I didn't feel as bad about those for some reason as bad as they were Sad

The night I placed the order in early Nov. this year I wanted to ask someone what a good stop loss would be but I did not know who to ask? So I just put 14.8K.

Is there anywhere I could go in the future to ask such questions and get answers with short notice? I don't mind paying. I just literally don't know where to go.

I also thought about re-entering a few days later at 15.8K but I didn't know that it was a thing--again I'm totally in the dark about trading. I got into BTC on accident some years ago. It's a long story. I think I was mentally paralyzed in terms of what the tax repercussions would be if I re-entered so I just didn't take any action. Again, I didn't know whom to ask or anything. I was so confused on the tax stuff for months. I know it sounds stupid but I didn't even realize I could call an accountant. I've been so busy with other things in my life.

Worse, I didn't know I could buy back in  at $15.8K and ride the market. It sort of crossed my mind but I wasn't sure what the ramifications would be in terms of tax so I froze and just didn't know what to do . I needed someone to talk to again but did not know where to go.

Please make suggestions.

Ideally, I'd like
-To be able to follow 5 expert traders on a day-to-day basis and see what they are doing to get some guidance and then ultimately make my own decision
-A group where I can ask questions to about TA, good stop-loss, good-buy in time, etc.With people who are very interested and doing the same thing.
-A 24/7 place where I can get quick simple answers or someone to talk to
-Really would like to find some sort of mastermind group.
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