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Economy / Speculation / Re: Reminder to smug bears: Remember 2012
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on: May 21, 2015, 08:37:08 PM
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Autumn 2012 felt the same as now. The infrastructure developed rapidly, adoption increased, the good news just kept flooding in and the price did not react at all. That was also after a long and terrible decline after the crazy 2011 bubble. Of course nobody knows what will happen but I would not be surprised by something similar to spring 2013. Interestingly, a widely held belief around here in 2010 was that if this thing takes off there will be bubbles, several of them.
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2015-03-13] IBM and Federal Reserve want to create a Bitcoin Knock-Off
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on: March 14, 2015, 09:29:49 PM
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Transferring value by assigning it to new owners in a ledger has been done for thousands of years. Bitcoin is new because for the first time this can be done without a trusted ledger keeper. Technologically a centralised ledger is much more efficient. Bitcoin can compete because no real life ledger keepers can actually be trusted. They are too vulnerable to coercion and corruption.
According to the Reuters article these people want to use the less efficient Bitcoin technology and have in centrally controlled by vulnerable organisations, combining the worst of both worlds.
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7
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Those hodling >10btc since last ath
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on: February 16, 2015, 11:07:40 PM
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Diversifying enough to live decently if Bitcoin fails but no way 50%. If Bitcoin succeeds and becomes a stable currency it still makes a lot of sense to hold bitcoin. It would be a non-inflationary currency that grows in real value in step with general economic growth. That would make it the optimal investment as long as you don't have private information about other investments, as such information is the only way to beat the index (i.e. overall economic growth) on average.
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8
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Been here before.
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on: August 16, 2014, 07:32:08 PM
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This time can be quite different.
Price at 60 required much less money infusion to hold the price and pump it higher.
At 500, it will require much more money infusion just to keep it stable.
Could have been said of every higher price level to this point. And it was said. Over and over again. Year after year. And don't forget the inflation rate keeps falling. It was about 50% yearly when many started to worry about this. Now it is 10%.
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10
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Economy / Speculation / Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.
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on: August 04, 2014, 03:36:14 PM
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ASIC space heaters?
If you think that miners can find a profitable use for the waste heat from the mining process then that would allow them to use even more power than the estimates given. Yes, but it wouldn't be wasted. Say resistor wire with built-in mining hardware costs about the same as regular resistor wire and that 6% of electricity production goes to heating. Then all those 6% (instead of 3%) would be used for mining. No other mining would take place as it would be highly unprofitable. More power would be used for mining but used efficiently and at no cost to society.
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11
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-07-31] BitBeat: Wikipedia Adopts Bitcoin
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on: August 01, 2014, 07:23:46 PM
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I use their website so often I'd feel compelled to give, if it wasn't run by a bunch of spiteful high-functioning autists.
I use it so often I felt compelled to give even though it's run by a bunch of spiteful high-functioning autists. So now I have. They wouldn't let me pay if I didn't fill out a form with name and address. I have no idea why.
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12
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bolivian Central Bank Reportedly Bans Digital Currencies Like Bitcoin
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on: June 20, 2014, 09:45:31 PM
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Someone pointed out to me that "legal tender" means that debt can't be settled with it. Even gold and silver wouldn't necessarily be considered to be legal tender.
It only means debt can't be settled with it against the creditor's will. Unless there is a contract saying it can. Debts can be settled in anything the parties agree on.
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13
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 years ago...let's reminisce
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on: June 09, 2014, 06:00:07 AM
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I just held during the whole 2011 bubble cycle. I agreed with the then already widespread opinion on this forum that if Bitcoin catches on (a huge if at the time) there would be several bubbles on the way up. At the same time I knew I had no particular talent for picking tops and bottoms.
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14
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: Ebay CEO serious about bitcoin
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on: June 06, 2014, 09:27:37 PM
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Oh yeah, I know that, but you have all these people now doing a total reversal on their opinions about Bitcoin the moment they see them making tons of money, it's a bit like when I've seen people attacking creative people etc. when they're learning or they aren't making any money but when they hit it big all of a sudden they were with them from the very start. Actually, I think that's a good metaphor, Bitcoin is a bit like an under appreciated artist  So if Bitcoin was to die, it would be worth a lot more?  If Satoshi dies then Bitcoin will be worth a lot more ... oh, so that's why he is anonymous. 
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16
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Economy / Speculation / Re: point of maximum pain
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on: April 14, 2014, 07:28:49 PM
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Back in 2011 I passively watched the decline. At 2$ there were heavy doomsaying on this forum. I read forceful arguments that nothing would prevent a further drop to 1$ and below. For the first time I felt a serious temptation to sell bitcoin to be able to double them at 1$.
A few days ago at 350$ I for the first time calculated at what price I would really be hurt if it continued falling.
Just another piece of data.
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2014-3-12 Zero Hedge: The Complete Annotated Price History Of Bitcoin
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on: March 13, 2014, 07:21:08 AM
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And because its supply is ultimately limited, prices will need to vary to accommodate shifts in demand, not the other way round.
Oh, no! Prices that vary with shifts in demand! When varying demand with prices set by a central planning authority has historically been such a smashing success. How will that ever work?
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2014-01-23 Coindesk: Naughty America Joins Porn.com in Bitcoin Acceptance
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on: January 24, 2014, 06:52:04 PM
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But, when it comes to these other countries … look at India, they don’t even have kissing in the movies. So, think about those countries and what could happen with something like bitcoin. Indeed. What took them so long? The untapped demand ought to be huge. This could bootstrap Bitcoin in a lot of places that are both sexually and financially repressed, where it is sorely needed.
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