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That's not really true. In a Bitcoin economy, governments can still bail out all the losers they want with as many BTC they have.
Also don't forget that MtGox bailed out bitomat.
Bitcoin is a big step forward in money, but The Market is a lot bigger than just the currency that is used.
mtgox used their own money to bail bitomat out. they didnt create a bunch of coins out of nowhere. |
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because our signal isn't continuous
Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data. You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases. calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out). and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c). fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time. since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby. fantastic post; i haven't such blatant lack of knowledge of calculus in a single post since the person to whom i was responding when i wrote the post you quoted. so let's see: if we have a function (discontinuous, mind you), and we want to know if its "very next" value will be higher or lower than its present, you want to know if it has a positive or negative slope. the problem, however, is a single point in a discontinuous function is NOT differentiable. so your above challenge is impossible. HOWEVER, using charts can be almost exactly described by this intent. if one smooths the data using averages, for instance (even the data you look at when you look at price charts has been smoothed, usually by boxplots), and then graphs the derivative of this now-continuous function, you might get an idea of what kind of trend is occurring. in fact, this is extremely easy, and can be done by just about anyone during a strong trend. long-term PVT and Accumulation/Distribution Line will both be increasing, and thus the Chaikin Oscillator ('momentum' or scaled-slope of the ACC/DIST) will be relatively constant and positive. guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby! identifying tops and bottoms (protecting those guaranteed profits) is more difficult. using indicators that also look at volume is helpful, as price and volume are the two core pieces of "data" that are free, information-wise, in a market, and should always both be considered. also looking at oscillators which are slightly different than indicators that just act as scaled derivatives is helpful because they try to track the 'momentum' of price moves -- that is, the tendency of markets to swing from 'overbought' to 'oversold' -- which are signals of a market reversal. tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'. wow Im convinced, arepo I will be following your trading advice. please make more threads, I will donate btc to you. |
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because our signal isn't continuous
Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data. You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases. calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out). and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c). fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time. since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby. |
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Ok I'll bite.
Have you considered how difficult it would be for you to offer payment services?
Why would you enter the thread just to say something negative? As an adult, dont you find it inappropriate to just enter the thread to dispraise a 17 year old in his business venture... As a matter of fact, it seems like mr.Tong is the adult (for not calling you an asshole, which you clearly are) and you are the "kid". hmmm, I did not interpret phantomcircuit's post like that at all I thought he was just urging Z to build a portal out to the fiat economy, which we desperately need That's precisely what I was saying, improved liquidity would benefit everybody, even those of us seemingly working at cross purposes. However a hint of caution is necessary. Accepting wire transfers, bitcoins, and mtgox codes is orders of magnitude simpler than other payment mechanisms. Currently about 10% of the intersango code base is actually about exchanging bitcoins ... the rest is handling idiosyncrasies of various insane payment systems. So this is all you have to say to a young entepreneur? Dispraising comments? Is that how you would raise your kids? Worst case scenario, mr Tong learns from the experience. Or is there perhaps another motive for the negative attitude? Why else would you "bite"? |
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well, there would be no reason for you not to accept bitcoin.
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phantomcircuit youd better give an explanation or you just made yourself look incredibly unprofessional. a quick view in a couple of recent threads and one gets the impression that you feel jealous.
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I dont see what youre talking about.
Why so jelly?
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This is identical to the scenario where mtgox users had their btc stolen when their passwords leaked, and mtgox demanded that they contact the police and demanded some kind of document that their computers have been scanned, "which might be the cause of their loss" or something like that. This happened to my brother and I still feel like crap for telling him to use mtgox. My brother also thinks bitcoin will not succeed simply because its full of crooks (he lost money in both mtgox and mybitcoin... imagine how I feel for being the one to tell him to try bitcoin).
And why would I believe that this isnt an attempt to rob customers of their money? Everyone has heard of people getting their accounts frozen for no reason. Now they even demand you to provide a document which might not even be possible for you to get.
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My opinion is that you make your own independent exchange. Even if the fees on the exchange might be so low that they only pay off its expenses, you will profit more simply because of the reduced spreads on bitcoinica (more people, like me, will use bitcoinica more often - I love bitcoinica but sometimes the spreads are just too high... simply because Gox has to have a piece of the cake) You are the only one running an exchange type service who has excellent communication with their customers. Compare to gox which wont even reply to emails, will constantly "forget" tickets, will do crazy stuff like demand an ID and freeze up your money for no reason etc. Actually, with 0.1% fees, you should profit off of that too, simply because you will take pretty much ALL the volume off of other exchanges (unless they tighten up their game that is, which doesnt seem likely). Traders will also most likely trade more. Spreads will decrease because traders will be able to profit off of smaller difference (e.g. buying and selling at a 0.4% difference would be profitable, compared to 1% needed in mtgox) Ok I'll bite.
Have you considered how difficult it would be for you to offer payment services?
Why would you enter the thread just to say something negative? As an adult, dont you find it inappropriate to just enter the thread to dispraise a 17 year old in his business venture... As a matter of fact, it seems like mr.Tong is the adult (for not calling you an asshole, which you clearly are) and you are the "kid". Is it perhaps jealousy? You have to realize that, since he offers better service than any other exchange, and is about to offer an exchange service for 1/6 the price of the top exchange, with same volume... The fact that he will offer BitInstant transfers (smart move there mr.Tong) means everyone from gox will most likely go to his exchange, unless of course they like being goxed. Thank you mr.Tong for your service, and thank you for taking into consideration what the community might think of you opening up an exchange. To date, I have not seen a single exchange which can talk the talk (service) AND walk the walk (offer volume). |
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just saw some tweet saying dwolla is gonna buy up a bunch of btc. time to buy or is someone trying to trick us?
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Förstår vad du menar men jag tror vi måste börja försöka locka "vanliga" användare också, annars är jag rädd att vi fastnar i nörd-facket för alltid. När vanliga användare börjar få upp ögonen för Bitcoin finns det större anledning för investerare att satsa pengar på lite större, mer seriösa Bitcoin-projekt, vilket t.ex. kan ge oss e-plånböcker som folk faktiskt vågar lita på. Det finns mängder av småprojekt som folk sitter och hackar ihop hemma (och en del av dem är jättebra, missförstå mig inte) men väldigt få större projekt, sådana som kanske även har en rejäl budget för marknadsföring.
Jag får försöka få till något som lockar nördarna men som ändå inte skrämmer bort alla Svenssons.
Är det inte bättre att vi låter populariteten öka genom att vi helt enkelt berättar om bitcoin projektet för folk i vår omgivning? Och helst inte framföra bitcoins som en investering! Jag känner i alla fall att bitcoin är väldigt kraftigt, och erbjuder ett alternativ till de valutor vi har idag. Satoshi:s papper har ju redan refererats till inom akademia! Jag anser att man hellre väntar och stödjer utvecklarna tills vi får en mer användbar klient, mindre varianter av klienten och flera mobila applikationer för bitcoin. Efter det är enkelt att en mindre datorkunnig person ska kunna använda sig av bitcoin på ett säkert sätt, borde de större investerare komma in i spelet. Annars riskerar vi flera misslyckanden som e-wallets som tar folks mynt och så vidare. |
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"The potential Achilles heel of Bitcoin—that each server in the network contains a complete record
of all transactions—will almost certainly be addressed in future systems that distribute transaction
information so that no single server or small collection of servers contains a complete transaction
record."
i thought this was our strength?
It's law enforcement's Achilles Heel, that's why they say that, I think. It's a good read. It's kind of boring though. Not much news really. But it does show Bitcoins impact and reaction from corporations and government. Clearly Bitcoin is a problem for some people. This is a very good thing.  yeah, i thought it was boring too. but what made it boring is that its not really a research piece. no statistics, figures, graphs. just alot of fear and innuendo justifying gov't counteraction. something you'd expect from a gov't pawn. The syntax of that sentence does not imply that it is the law enforcements achilles heel. Seems like they got it all wrong, this is what keeps btc from being counterfeited and prevents double spends. Harder to counterfeit than actual cash! That is one hell of a trait considering cash has been around for so long. An applause to mr Nakamoto. |
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Yes, Bitcoin ATMs and in person exchanging with cash is needed, if we truly want a decentralized currency. So why is everyone using these large exchanges and online wallets? I believe people will eventually learn not to. Time will tell, and I am eager to see what will be available by the end of this year.
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Unless the 25k BTC thieves use a public exchange to sell the coins (where they might submit personally identifying information), how do these graphs help?
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Looks like a good idea. Prague is affordable, the hotel seems affordable, and a flight to Prague is at approximately €60 for me. Unless I have obligatory appointments during those days, I may very well attend the conference!
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One thing I dont get is...
... if an address (A) is linked to me, and I start up another client sending to a newly generated address (B), send the coins there, and then go on to some online wallet and back and forth...
How can anyone prove I am the owner of address B and so on? I might just have bought a bunch of digital goods with it, or given it away for no reason at all.
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Over 6 weeks and I have the same issue. I certainly hope this isnt a scam, because bitcoin2cash has been operating for far too long to not have been called out. I hope the owner just takes a look at this and finds a solution...
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Logging in doesnt seem to work no matter which openID provider you use. Bitcoin2cash please fix this so you can get rid of my complaints  |
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This kind of greed is the reason behind all the drama attached to bitcoin. $10 is a nice number by the way, makes calculations easy. I wish it could stay at $10 for half a year, it might lead to more confidence in actual trading of goods with BTC.
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Jag planerar att starta upp www.bitcoin.se under en relativt snar framtid. Min tanke är att det kan bli en portal för att locka svenska användare. Alltså, introduktion på svenska, busenkla instruktioner för hur man börjar använda Bitcoin, troligtvis en nyhetsfokuserad blogg, ett forum. Någon gång hoppas jag också vi kan ordna ett nybörjarvänligt sätt att köpa Bitcoins i Sverige, utan att behöva skapa konton på utländska exchanges och föra över pengar till utländska bankkonton. Vad mer kan vi göra, rent konkret, för att få svenskar att börja använda Bitcoin? Vad vill ni att bitcoin.se ska vara? Jag är lite emot att göra bitcoin alltför användarvänligt för tillfället. Det krävs en del datortekniska färdigheter för att kunna använda sig av bitcoins på ett säkert sätt. Ännu mer för att förstå hur det funkar. En bra idé vore väl att locka datornördar först, de kommer inse hur uppenbart det är att skydda wallet.dat filen! Och så är det mer sannolikt att de kommer bidra till projektets utveckling. Jag vet inte heller vad hela tanken bakom den här fixeringen med exchanges är. Det lockar giriga människor och ger ett dåligt intryck ("Det här är bitcoins - var vänlig skicka pengar till denna bankkonto om du vill ha några!"). Sedan har det visat sig bränna en massa människors pengar Jag deltar gärna med att hjälpa till med översättning och att posta på forumet för att introducera folk, kanske ge bort .01 BTC till nykomlingar för att de ska få testa hur man använder sig av de. |
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