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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 21, 2017, 01:58:40 PM
I think we are at an ATH right now?

I particularly like the fact that it is moving without correlation to BTC and other cryptos, and rather based on the news for the project itself. For me it shows that it is not just an speculative asset, but rather, a project with strong fundamentals and insane potential.

As for the people here who bought at 25 cents, boy, I hate and envy you !!   Grin

Well, I was lucky to buy more 10000 monero in the sub $1 price range. But I sold almost all of it for $2-3 to lock in the profits. It hurts to think that I would almost be a millionaire by now if I would have kept all of them. However, I almost dumped all of them near the bottom, because I was losing money when the price was decreasing for months. So I cannot really complain after all.

I'm sure this bull market won't last forever either, so there will be a lot of buying opportunity for everyone who missed this chance.
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 26, 2016, 07:20:05 PM

So your statement implicates that you are holding more BTC than $ or €  Roll Eyes Cool

not necessarily.

let's say my net worth is $100,000 and keep 5% in cryptocurrency ($5,000)

within that 5%, i have to decide whether i want to be holding 90% in btc ($4,500-worth) vs. 10% in xmr ($500-worth) or 50/50 or some other allocation.

if i think that xmr is severely overvalued against btc, then i will do 100% in btc ($5,000 in btc). if i think that xmr is undervalued, i may go 100% xmr ($5,000 in XMR).

let's say that another 30% of my net worth is in precious metals. if i think that silver is severely undervalued compared to gold, maybe i will put the whole $30,000 into silver. when silver rises against gold, i will sell some silver and buy gold.

in this example, cryptocurrency is still only 5% of my net worth, but i am still thinking about XMR in terms of BTC. even though precious metals are only 30% of my net worth, i am thinking of silver in terms of gold. it doesn't imply that >50% of my net worth is in cryptocurrency. nor does it imply that >50% of my net worth is in precious metals.

i understand why some people think of xmr in terms of dollars. you should try to understand why others think of it in terms of btc.

The only problem with your example is that Monero has a much bigger chance of becoming worthless than silver. I would be comfortable holding 100% silver, but much less comfortable being 100% in Monero. In fact I was 95%+ once in Monero, but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone Smiley
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 08, 2015, 01:50:59 PM
The investor sentiment wheel during 2015  Grin :



Sorry for the bad quality.
If you can't read the text, you can find the original image in better quality on this site for example:
http://www.trustablegold.com/investor-sentiment-wheel/

Please note that I don't want to suggest that this is the bottom, the price may eventually fall to 0.
4  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 03, 2015, 01:13:07 PM
Where can I find more information about CryptoKingdom, especially about how to play the game? I registered on the site a few months ago, but I couldn't figure out what to do next.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: **** TittieCoin TTC - Welcome To The Evolution **** on: November 12, 2015, 06:56:20 PM
Is there any working gambling site for tittiecoin? I played a few times on tittie-dice.com, but now seems to be offline.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: **** TittieCoin TTC - Welcome To The Evolution **** on: September 02, 2015, 09:51:04 AM
Anyone knows who has the #1 address on the rich list with more than 250 million tittiecoins?  Shocked
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 24, 2015, 06:30:11 PM
I am becoming more and more convinced bitcoin will not make any new ATH.
I think the bear market is too rough and it certainly discourages any new investors to adapt it.
It is just a matter of months when BTC is trading around 100 usd (in my opinion - I might be wrong also - but certainly at least it has some probability to occur).
There is very little to no incentive for anyone buying bitcoins. There is pretty much nothing in sight that could potentially increase the demand for bitcoins.

That's our chance. It is important the community start measuring moneros in fiat terms, not in bitcoin terms (otherwise Monero will die together with bitcoin).

Why do you think that if bitcoin dies in this stage, Monero would have any chance to survive? Of course there is a thing like the second-mover advantage, and Monero is superior to Bitcoin in many aspects, but I don't think that would be enough.
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 24, 2015, 05:10:12 PM
I'm transferring most of my BTC from Bitfiniex to Poloniex, because of the recent problems with that exchange. Hopefully I will be able to buy some cheap Monero in the next days.

Edit: looks like the ascending trendline from the all-time low is about to be broken, which means the price might go down to the 0.001 level again. Bitcoin doesn't looks too good either, if the 210 support area is broken, it's almost sure the price will go down in the 180-160$ zone.
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 31, 2015, 11:37:32 AM
I doubt that Bitcoin will stay in the 150-300$ range for 3 years from now on. Also that chart isn't correct even if it's a logarithmic one: currently we are not at the same level like the top of the bubble in mid-2011. Also predictions on logarithmic scale for multiple year timeframes are impossible in my opinion (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=686745.0 for example). Even if the reasoning behind them seems OK, there are simply too many unknown factors which can influence the price.
10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 31, 2015, 08:40:11 AM

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 31, 2015, 07:06:59 AM
By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

My original and offtopicish comment was due to Risto's antisemitistic posts on his Facwebook where he spreads the propaganda Neo-Nazis which are even pretty well-known  by the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo).

But now enough of this off-topic. Back to the bearish trend of Monero which has only dead-cat rallies these days. The price drops 20-30 % and rises only 10-15 % making the bearish trend possible and creating the desperate  bagholder community which every now and then makes the silly pumping posts on the threads and are trolling me who (as usual) is right when it comes to the trend.

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months. Be careful with TrueCryptonaire's posts, he was recommending to buy at the 0.004 top because "it's a nice base for a rocket". But buying at 0.004 is far not that bad than selling at 0.002, if Monero will succeed.

Here is the 1 day chart to see what I'm talking about:

12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 27, 2015, 02:37:43 PM
Since this thread is Monero Speculation - anyone care to speculate on price action?

I've been buying on the way down - makes sense to average down, given I am in for the long term.

I am a long term bull since first days of the Polo listing, but any thoughts on the support at .0016 holding - or is this headed for a bottom around the .0010 mark...  I am under water under the 20's. Not concerned, just want to pick up more at sensible levels.

I know TA may be irrelevant and Polo's recent edicts are affecting things - but some speculation would be of interest and much appreciated.

The 1-day RSI was already at oversold levels when the price has fallen below below 0.002 for the first time during this downtrend on May 4th. The RSI is higher now then it was on the previous low (on May 5-6th), so if the price fails again to break the 0.0016 level, there is a good chance (I'd say 70%) that this will be the lowest price in the next 3-4 months.
But for someone who is already holding Monero, and only wants to buy more to get a better average entry price, I would wait to see if the 0.001 level can be reached (this is my case too). If you don't hold any Moneros and you are looking for a good entry point, the 0.0016-0.002 zone if a good one in my opinion.
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 21, 2015, 07:37:10 PM
Wow. Some big players are cashing out. I wonder who?

I think it's more a case of market manipulation with the help of the margin trading system.

I think a few people (including myself) were building up long positions in the 0.002-0.0022 zone, but with the downspike those positions were liquidated at the market price, causing the last selloff from 0.00195 to 0.00167. These kind of stop loss runs are quite common on the Bitcoin market, now that margin trading is possible we should get used to it at Monero as well.

If that wall at 0.00165 is real, than it could be the bottom, if not, the next support is at 0.0014 but a retest of the 0.001 level is also a possibility.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 21, 2015, 09:09:36 AM
i smell a bear trap  Grin

More than 100,000 Monero was dumped on the market last 2 days, yet the price is down only by 10%. The liquidity is very good (at least at the buy orders), just imagine dumping 100,000 BTC on the BTC/USD market, I think it it would bring the price under 100$.
I don't know how many bears are left there and how much Monero is available for loan to be used as shorts, especially after the current KYC regulation on Poloniex. Once a few shorts will be closed, it can trigger a liquidation wave + if others start to buy back, then 0.003 will be reached faster than you can log in to Poloniex to close your shorts  Grin

If you were able to short above 0.004, then you are lucky, and you might wait and hope that the price can break under 0.0019. But to enter in a short position now, just because they were made avaliable these days on Polo is not a good risk/revard trade at all.
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: May 19, 2015, 06:39:25 PM
I have a question: if I make a donation for the development of Monero, how do you know who sent it? (I'd like my name to appear in the Community hall of fame.)

You can send it with a payment ID you make up, and then let cAPSLOCK know what the payment ID was. Or just tell him before you send the donation, and then let him know the transaction ID (which we will confirm for him).

Thanks fluffypony, I will send a message to cAPSLOCK with the payment ID. Hopefully I will soon join the Supporters with a Bale of High Quality Hygiene Paper  Cheesy.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: May 19, 2015, 05:28:47 PM
I have a question: if I make a donation for the development of Monero, how do you know who sent it? (I'd like my name to appear in the Community hall of fame.)
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 19, 2015, 08:49:01 AM
A lot of altcoins are increasing in value (are pumped?) these days, see peercoin or blackcoin. Even litecoin might have a bull run in the not too distant future, given the fact that it looks like a double bottom is in at the 0.0058 level. It might be an end to the bear market on the altcoins, so better watch out with those Monero shorts  Smiley
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: **** TittieCoin TTC - Welcome To The Evolution **** on: May 11, 2015, 03:26:01 PM
I uploaded a few gifs, does that means that I can get a few TTCs if other users vote for them? Or the coins spent on voting go elsewhere? Also the TTCtube looks buggy a bit, but if it's under development, that's understandable. (For example in my wallet the Next button is not working properly.)
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: **** TittieCoin TTC - Welcome To The Evolution **** on: May 09, 2015, 01:20:45 PM
Is somewhere a detailed description how TittieTube (inside the wallet) works?
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 06, 2015, 06:38:15 PM
I am wondering if technical analysis is really working for Monero and crypto coins in common. Actually, trading with technical signals are only working because there are many people which follow such rules. Are there so much people trading cryptos that this could work?  Huh

12h bullish divergence. I'd say Monero at .0019-20 is very good buy for short/medium.

There are MACD bullish divergences regarding the recent 0.00189 low in all the charts between 1 day and 1 hour.

Pretty much all technical analysis is a kind of financial astrology, even in the Forex. So yea, when it works it does so because people are expecting it to work, they trade accordingly, and thus it becomes self fulfilling.

BTC has shown demonstrable genesis for TA, but altcoins not so much. With something like XMR, the trading base is currently far too small for any attempt at TA to be credible. It's mainly used as a propaganda tool, if anything.


Technical will never have a 100% accuracy, but now is a strong (I'd say 70-80%) chance for an uptrend at least to retest the resistance at 0.0028 for the following 3 reasons:
-the RSI was lower recently than it was at the 0.0009 price level
-RSI divergence
-the resistance at 0.0019, which now acts as support

Here is a nice 12 hour chart:



(Since this is a speculation thread, don't blame be for any losses, also never invest more than you can afford to lose, consult your financial advisor, etc  Grin)
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