|
+7.5 = Kexkey
Thanks Phil!
|
|
|
|
+8.2 = Kexkey They wanted to wait September, but the temptation was too strong, they not only replaced three 28 nm for one 16 nm miner, but they also plugged a few more 16 nm and some also got their 14 nm up and running!  Who are "they"? Bitmain, Bitfury, BW, ... Exciting!  (ref.: the huge one-day spikes in May and before) |
|
|
|
|
Kexkey = -8.4
Thanks Phil!
|
|
|
|
Damn! That's crazy! Go ahead and send it to the 13th Floor in my sig. I can send a signed message if you want to confirm first.
Cheers to all the players, let's see who hits it next! And cheers to philip for keeping the game going!
LOL I like your address! Hey congrats! I was so off on that prediction...   |
|
|
|
Well at block 740 right now and there's a big drop off in the network hash. Is it from the halving? Is it old gear making way for new? I honestly expected to see much more variance in network power immediately following the halving, but perhaps this is just the calm before the storm...
Yeah me too! I guess we're in the transition right now. I expect global hashrate to explode... but well, for now, I'm not sure about anything. Ref. the 1 EH spike on May 23rd, thanks Phil for pointing it out. |
|
|
|
Congrats generalt! That was hard to predict! Next difficulty change will be after the halving!  |
|
|
|
"What does worry me is the ½ ing may not drop hashrate. I see 300 to 500 ph going offline,but I think the spike could be that 300 to 500 ph. I really do hope to see a 20%-30% " I have the strangest feeling hashrate wont drop either...imo it will just keep going, and going, and going. probably will stabilize at some point (end of the summer). idk so many factors here, the halving, probably no new hardware for a little while, and imminent huge btc bubble in autumn by the way that diff is getting close to my pick....GO DIFF GO My bet is it will tripple very quickly. Phil, you remember the spike at 2200 PH/s (+1000 PH/s in one day) on May 23rd? Well, that was probably only one manufacturer (Bitmain?) testing their new gear. Now when they (Bitmain, Bitfury, BW, even maybe KNC despite the bankrupt, who knows?) are going to go online after the halving, minus all the small ones unplugging their gear... I'm pretty sure hashrate will go up significantly. But hey, that's only speculation...  NB: That's actually good news for Bitcoin security. |
|
|
|
+4.0 = Kexkey Thanks Phil! |
|
|
|
Looks like this period is trending toward ~0. Little peak power came on but it looks to be going away again. All seems too quiet for this close to the halving...
Seriously, it's hard to believe it's not artificially held around 0... I can't wait to see the hashrate explode right on halving! I even wonder if the S9 will be worth the buy.  |
|
|
|
|
+6.8 = Kexkey
Wow to the price! Surprising there's not a surge in hashrate with that price. I would have thought more retired miners replug their gears...
|
|
|
|
I'm guessing this will be the last "normal" adjustment before the halving. From here on out craziness ensues.
That's also my guess. Big miners plan to turn on their new gear farm when the halving happens but they will be tempted to do it before. And my guess is they will do it before. When we think about it, with the difficulty increases we got since Nov. (x3), when they say "the halving is already priced in" they're wrong. |
|
|
|
I am going to change prize level .
At 600 .1 btc is 60 usd
at 700 .1 btc is 70 usd
I think prize will be $50 then $100 then $150 then $200
not .1 then .2 then .3 then .4
This will not take effect this period if someone hits.. they get .20 btc
when this contest was started coins were around 200 so prize was
20 then 40 then 60 then 80
now prize is 70 then 140 then 210 then 280
So I will pay .20 btc this round.
Next round we convert to USD paid in btc.
So next round is $50 if we have a winner this round.
Next round is $150 if it is a carryover based on 50 then 100 then 150.
That makes sense. Maybe someday the prize will be around 0.00005 btc (woohoo!) and we'll say "Do you remember when you were giving 0.1 btc every round? That was insane, we can buy a car today with that!" :-D Reminds me the pizza for ...how much? 30000 btc? |
|
|
|
Il vaut mieux miner sur un pool avec plus de Th/s, qui a donc potentiellement plus de chance de trouver des blocks et donc plus de chances de payer regulierement (mais moins a chaque fois)
Je suis sur kano.is depuis un bail, et franchement avec un PPLNS de 5nd, y'a rien a dire.
Ça dépend. L'existence de p2pool n'enlève rien à la qualité de kano.is, sur lequel j'ai miné longtemps (et qui est d'ailleurs particulièrement chanceux, c'en est déconcertant!) p2pool est un pool décentralisé. C'est génial, tu ne trouves pas? On garde la philosophie de décentralisation tout en gardant les avantages du minage de groupe! Évidemment, c'est un avantage idéologique et non économique. Même si kano paie à chaque bloc, il a quand même le pouvoir de garder les gains s'il le voulait. Bien sûr, il ne le fait pas. Mais l'idée c'est qu'avec p2pool, ça ne peut pas arriver (et d'ailleurs, petite parenthèse, eligius.st paie lui aussi directement à partir du coinbase transaction). Évidemment, si p2pool avait le hashrate de kano.is, la variance serait la même que kano.is. Encore idéologiquement, en plus tu roulerais un full node qui contribuerait à la force du réseau distribué Bitcoin. Mais tu as raison, les payouts sont moins fréquents. Et tu n'as pas les optimisations de ck et kano dans ton instance de bitcoind... possibilité plus élevée de "stale blocks" (que certains appellent orphan blocks). P.S.: Je pense que ça fait la première fois que je poste dans ma langue! En tout cas, c'est rare. Je pourrais y prendre goût. |
|
|
|
|
-0.5 = Kexkey
I wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike during the last hours of this round!
Thanks Phil!
|
|
|
|
so 199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283 = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565 x 100 = 2.603408883565% which was then rounded to 2.60%
Since a number could be something like 2.5999932% bitcoinwisdom would round it up to 2.60%.
I won't so we can have a case where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.
Yeah I like it! The matheux (mather? mathor? methematicioux?) in me likes that kind of precision. Mathematician https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MathematicianI think you were looking for this. LOL thanks! In french we slang it as matheux (instead of mathématicien) so I thought there was a urban word like that in english. Anyway, let's hope our friends at Bitmain, Bitfurry, KnC and whoever, give us a break with their new generation miners for at least a few weeks before firing everything up and giving us headaches with our not-much-lucrative-anymore-mining. I don't want a jump over 3% guys, ok? |
|
|
|
so 199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283 = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565 x 100 = 2.603408883565% which was then rounded to 2.60%
Since a number could be something like 2.5999932% bitcoinwisdom would round it up to 2.60%.
I won't so we can have a case where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.
Yeah I like it! The matheux (mather? mathor? methematicioux?) in me likes that kind of precision. |
|
|
|
here is a point brought up due to the 2.60% used by bitcoinwisdom https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1468645.msg14958219#msg14958219philipma1957 - though it doesn't matter here, it will happen eventually. You should be clear on how you're rounding this. Suppose the change was 2.598% which bitcoin wisdom showed as 2.60% because it only shows 2dps - who wins, the chooser of 2.50% or 2.60%? I think it should be based on unrounded percentage increase, so 2.50% would win. Here it doesn't matter as the increase was 2.603% but let's get this clarified please. I did go back and look to see if I could find the discussing on this in an old thread . I remember we said bitcoinwisdom was the final number which gets rid of rounding issues. So we will use bitcoinwisdom as the tie breaker. Well in fact, 2.598 is between 2.5 (incl.) and 2.6 (excl.) so I guess the range of 2.5 (incl.) - 2.6 (excl.) should go from 2.5 to 2.5999999(per...) Hey btw congrats DanDan!! That was a difficult difficulty guess, with so much burst in global hashrate! |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
