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342
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Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
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on: November 04, 2014, 04:08:58 AM
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[ In the forefront of the defence against those developments: Monero (XMR). Total emission 18M vs. Bitcoin's 21M. Price: 0.0017 BTC. Hedging your position with an equal or higher amount of Monero has seldom been this cheap  Risto I had really hoped you would not just blindly pump..... Monero has never been lower except last week. You have had much better days. Whether or not Monero is a good investment (I have bought some), Risto is right that XMR is less useful as a tool of mass surveillance than Bitcoin. It will be interesting to see whether BTC will ever be allowed to incorporate strong privacy features. I can imagine it doing so via sidechains but I can also imagine scenarios where regulators and VC strong-arm Bitcoin developers or mining pools to use only pseudo-private ledgers. |
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345
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Mining Supercycle - bearish phase?
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on: November 01, 2014, 03:44:30 PM
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As price rises so does hashrate, however hash rate lags price. As the price climbs people start to see mining gear as a better investment then buying BTC direct, so less money goes into the market and more goes into mining. This causes a cyclical top. When price tops out you still have a buttload of hash rate that is on order, waiting to be deployed, or in the process of coming online. As price drops, this puts pressure on miners to sell, and as the hash rate increases so does selling pressure, at which point price starts to lag hash rate. As mining becomes less profitable the tide changes, all the money going into mining gear shifts back to buying cheap coin. Which drives up demand, only this time there is even more dollars chasing that limited supply (based on the principal that adoption is constantly increasing). As the prise starts to rise, miners are able to recoup their capital investment in dollar terms and start to think that perhaps holding is a better option, as the price is rising. This cuts supply and drives the price higher, and thus the cycle repeats. This cycle exists because miners are (imho wrongly) still measuring things in dollars. When miners start looking in terms of BTC only thats when this cycle will start to break down. That's where your piece of pie comes in, and thats what people should really be looking at long term. (miners or investors). If BTC becomes money, what percentage of it do you own. When you compare that to the present situation with dollars, pounds or whatever your local currency, you see how little you need just to 'hedge' your position. It astounds me that people don't at least buy that *just in case* especially given how little that actually costs right now. I guess thats why banks are so rich though eh This was the best explanation I've seen of the relationship between hashrate and price. |
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346
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
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on: October 28, 2014, 08:49:59 PM
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XMR just has to go through this phase. The price does not lie, the initial price was apparently a bit too high. Patience is a virtue.
Bitcoin price had several 5-fold drops from ATH and even one or two 10-fold drops. XMR is likely to be even more of a roller-coaster. |
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347
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade)
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on: October 26, 2014, 04:41:59 PM
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Is there enough content to fill a movie story on Monero?
for me .... we need GUI Wallet for full story to allow the the mass consumer to install it immediately Monero Wallets after seeing the video As long as it will take to gather materials, find someone to edit it into a workable film, and to market the release--is probably as long as the GUI will take to be ready. It's not like it would be hard to delay one so the release of both coincided. Think we should include the BCX saga; it had all the makings of good drama: mysterious bad guy, confusion, tension and then BAM! ......nothing, it ends on a comic note. I wonder if BCX would agree to cooperate. Or maybe hmm, he might want to be main star. co-starring MM88/Bluemeanie, AM/TFM, jl777, CZ, the ByteCoin/CryptoNote devs. . . yes, there's definitely enough for a movie. |
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348
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
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on: October 23, 2014, 07:31:04 PM
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Then if the side-coin becomes successful, BTC will move over up to the max supply issuance of the new coin. That part *does* boost bitcoin's purchasing power. But after that point, any further success of the side-coin in terms of purchasing power will not boost bitcoin, as far as I can tell. People would want the side-coin, but there's no built-in way to get it via bitcoin anymore, so at this point, it becomes the same as any other alt.
That's indeed only one scenario, but it seems to me that much of what sidechains boil down to is just optionally providing a built-in means of exchange that's not really all that different, economically, than existing alt-coin exchanges? What am I missing? Ideally at this point whatever feature made the sidechain successful would get incorporated into the Bitcoin protocol. But the issuers and holders of the sidechain might complain and try to stop that from happening. Are the pegs between chains irrevocable? If not, what's to stop a side-chain dev from pumping the side-chain and then "trapping" bitcoins by revoking the outgoing peg? |
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351
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Bitmark
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on: October 21, 2014, 03:36:23 PM
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Hi, this is my first visit to this thread. This is a fascinating project. I don't have time to read the entire thread, so I'm sorry if these are dumb questions. First, is there any way to punish trolls? Internet trolling is such a scourge. We need a way to engage in altruistic punishment (see http://www2.unine.ch/files/content/sites/ethol/files/shared/documents/Fehr_Gaechter_altruistic_punishment.pdf). Perhaps you could have a way to burn one's own marks but simultaneously burn those of a designated troll. This punishment should be public (non-anonymous) so that the mark-rich who might abuse the system would be risking retaliation from large groups of the mark-poor. Second, do site-owners need to do something to implement marking? For example, would the NY Times need to cooperate with Bitmark in order to enable its commenters to mark one another? Could this be done in a permissionless manner, perhaps using a browser plugin? |
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353
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
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on: October 19, 2014, 04:36:44 PM
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Yes. It might be interesting to note that this process started to accelerate when Nixon took the dollar off gold. Sound money is peoples money. This is a very interesting chart. It begs the question "Why?" Why has inequality steadily increased? I think the reason is that in an unbounded monetary system the people who have first use of new money benefit the most. They benefit because the inflationary impact of the new money does not appear immediately. So banks, big business which get priority on loans, and the wealthy who can leverage their assets do so before the inflationary impact occurs. Ordinary people are using the new money after the inflationary impact. For the middle class this is a financial death of a thousand cuts. The gold standard was weak long before 1971, so the chart reflects this, but the trend goes ballistic in a fully fiat system. Cue Supertramp, because this is the true crime of the century. Great point. But it's been going on much longer than the past century. |
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354
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Economy / Speculation / Re: US exchanges coming online
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on: October 19, 2014, 04:16:22 PM
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<btc talk users bad, black market bad, btc full of scams negative spin>
Black market is used by a financially skewed media to paint bitcoin badly which is unfortunate. But black market usage of btc gives the currency value and utility just as much as buying a laptop from dell. Not only that bitcoin was used when btc was 1000 dollars or 275 dollars. As we have discussed on other threads bitcoin is still nascent and volatile. It is my view (and it could be wrong) that btc userbase is growing and could easily drive the btc marketcap up a couple of orders of magnitude without being more than a digital trading asset. People discount BTC the coming ETF's as being unlikely to be approved or being already priced in (LOL), but there is money to be made and regulated derivatives markets are now coming out so I think it is simply a matter of timing now. It could be drawn out until the next halving, but once the multi trillion dollar pool of capital currently excluded for regular investors from a tax free regulated entry into btc opens up it will be fireworks. The last runup took probably a few hundred million dollars to drive up the price into four digits. It doesn't take a genius to see the profit motive for large holders prior to ETF's being approved. People like to hold a portion of their portfolio in something high risk, btc will be an option. A rise of two or three orders of magnitude from here is not unreasonable IMO. Great point. Wall Street is not going to leave money on the table. They are going to take positions off-exchange, being careful not to prematurely cause a bubble. When the high-throughput fiat on-ramp is ready, and they have taken their positions, they will spark the mother-of-all-bubbles. |
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355
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade)
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on: October 19, 2014, 03:59:33 PM
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Please help me...
y try to sent money on c-cex and bitrex, but my account is zero on both trade place... what i do srong?
I use bitmonerod 0.8.9 (65)
and simplewallet...
but some time i see in bitmonerod next message
2014-Oct-19 22:28:13.628019 [P2P0][61.177.35.218:18080 OUT]Sync data returned un
known top block: 267689 -> 202659 [65030 blocks (-45 days) ahead]
SYNCHRONIZATION started
this is not ok?
p.s. after i sent money i see
[wallet 427nKt]: transfer 1 463tWEBn5XZJSxLU6uLQnQ2iY9xuNcDbjLSjkn3XAXHCbLrTTErJ
rBWYgHJQyrCwkNgYvyV3z8zctJLPCZy24jvb3NiTcTJ 0.001 8a4566b6796d491abea607ce298a64
06c579f61c4a9d483080999fa21d2453ba
Money successfully sent, transaction <0f2a4fa7bbbbc09da5fa5a9bd22951e86840b40ecd
a20f6b2504bf755880bf8f>
it's right? addr amount paymentid ...
I think everything is fine but you are sending too small an amount of XMR. The minimum fee is 0.1 XMR and everything less than that is considered dust and added to the miner fee, I think. So try sending 1 XMR as a test. |
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356
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Monero Economy Workgroup - The MEW Thread
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on: October 17, 2014, 09:20:11 PM
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A D V E R T I S E M E N T - O P P O R T U N I T Y
The early adopter phase of the Monero virtual world - Crypto Kingdom is starting NOW.If you are interested in the game, want to fund its development, and enjoy a bit of speculation, now it is possible to buy ingame gold. Minimum at this point is for 100 XMR (about BTC2.5) but it will be listed soon and then smaller lots become possible. MEW members get a 20% discount, up to the maximum purchase that is equal to their MEW votepower. Purchases higher than this go at normal price. MEW discount will be removed some time before ingome gold becomes freely tradable. In my eagerness for this I even wasted some time on that weird psychodelic 2d world building website you linked the other day. So yeah, I'm in. As the saying goes "Shut up and take my Monero!" If after a look through it seems suitable for a fairly worldly 14yr old, I may be getting my son an account too. What is the procedure for buying ingame gold? |
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357
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Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] Moderated Monero General Discussion Thread
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on: October 17, 2014, 05:04:48 PM
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How was Bitcoin being used when its price was about $1? Were there any merchants accepting it back then? What were the first steps in the development of its economy before Silk Road?
Of course history won't repeat itself, but what can Monero learn from Bitcoin's first couple of years?
I was around for single digits but not $1. I remember there being a few merchants. For example alpaca socks and a few VPS providers, and people selling some mining gadgets such as pcie risers. I don't remember much else. For the most part everything was focused on either mining or speculation (MtGox). I guess Roger Ver's MemoryDealers was the first big merchant to get on board. A trip down memory lane: I've been reading all about bitcoins the last few nights and I am sold on the idea. I'm proud to announce that http://www.memorydealers.com will now formally accept bit coins. We are a decent size company with about 30 employees with expected sales revenue of close to $10M USD for 2011 If anyone needs any networking equipment, I would be happy to help, and I will accept payment in bit coins. (Cisco, 3com, Foundry, Juniper, etc. We specialize in transceivers such as GBIC, SFP+, X2, XFP etc) If anyone has any experience implementing bitcoin into a normal website shopping cart, please contact me. I will have a bitcoin advertising banner on my website after our next website update. (about 2 more weeks) If you guys are happy with my efforts, please feel free to send a few bitcoins my way. 15AERx25L4pD9tkKYoYxWgMSuvVNaNhvXG Please let me know if you have any other thoughts or ideas on how I can help bitcoin grow along with my own business. Roger Ver |
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