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361  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why does Bitcoiner still support the use of centralized exchanges? on: April 22, 2023, 08:58:41 AM
Convenience is one of the major reasons why most Bitcoiners use centralized exchanges.  Aside from that, many incoming Bitcoin users are informed by the advertisement of these centralized exchanges.  In short, centralized exchanges are the reason why these people get involved in Bitcoin so it is logical that these people who are informed by centralized exchange to use their services.  That is what I think why most of us uses centralized exchanges the same way I also use centralized exchange because it is the one that introduce Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency to me.

Part of that convenience is that people have the false belief that CEX is safer because should any issues arrive, they have an entity to seek some sort of remedy. What they don't realize is that most of these exchanges don't operate within their jurisdiction and could disappear the next day without providing them an explanation. CEX gives the illusion of safety because a 3rd party intermediary exists but it's that 3rd party intermediary that should provoke the most distrust.
362  Economy / Economics / Re: Effects: Over-reliance on the US dollar on: April 21, 2023, 09:42:48 PM
Do nations really need to have a financial reserve in a particular currency of a nation? What are the implications of having reserves in multiple currencies? The dollar has been very stable because the US and its allies have always controlled the world economy. Currently, more nations like China and others have built their economy and they also want to control some segments of the world's economy.

The point is diversification. Should any single currency fail, your portfolio will not entirely lose its value. USD is not stable anymore. Setting aside inflation -- more countries are becoming cautious about the U.S. governments ability to levy sanctions and forfeit assets against a particular country for their own internal political battles. Should you have USD and your country becomes barred from doing business with companies that the U.S. government has jurisdiction over, your currency loses a fair bit of value. The alternative isn't Yuan, it would be a decentralized asset. Some countries are turning to gold but IMO bitcoin would solve a lot of the issues that currency reserves have.
363  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Population on: April 21, 2023, 09:13:27 PM
India was supposed to be the next super power, except they can't even be bothered to fix their sanitation problem to stop open defecation. The strategy for China and India was to produce as many children as possible to raise their GDP, even if meant a large portion of their population was dying in poverty. Hopefully the rest of the developing nations don't follow their strategy.

The upside is that we are breeding a new flavor of mongrel goyim using the Chinese males sent over to Africa for construction projects who mate with African females.  It will be an intriguing experiment for us fans of Kalergi, and especially if some fraction of the Chinese decide to make Africa their home.  Of course the joys of social credit score technocratic totalitarianism are sure to draw most of the guys back to their motherland.

The Chinese had started some infrastructure projects in the early 2000's after FOCAC formed. Looks to me like some of these partnerships failed because of the cultural incompatibilities but others might speculate differently as to why. Chinese males settling in parts of Africa would be a shock.
364  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The fall of crypto influencers. on: April 21, 2023, 08:58:00 PM
One of the biggest problems in the industry is that there is zero liability and no obligation for influencers to do due diligence on the products and services they advertise. As long as they publicly state that its advertisement, that they produce content for a product or service in exchange for a payment, they are good to go. Of course it can't be anything that is illegal per se, but advertising casinos has become a huge thing. I have read an article a while ago about the amounts of money that companies like Stake.com pay to influencers for pushing their brand. It is inconceivable. For just a few posts or repeatedly mentioning the gambling websites, six figures is the absolute minimum. But if they decide to take the advertisement on a Twitch stream (although this is prohibited in some places), you immediately talk about millions of dollars when the follower count is a million or more. But how immoral is that? Many of them built their follower count due to talking as if they had values, were a person that is worth following and bla bla. But when the right offer comes, many of them pull the mask off their face themselves.

The problem with casino influencers is the ambiguity in their how the sponsorships work. They'll purport to the viewer that there's a sponsorship involved and the bankroll they play with are provided by the casino, and the losses aren't actually realized even if they torch their bankroll. Some portion of crypto "influencers" are just shills that won't even disclose their financial conflict of interest. Not even the sponsored casino content producers will do this. The other division of this space are the moronic celebrities that know nothing about crypto but will gladly take a check from random crypto enterprises and will become their cheerleaders. How can we forget the FTX "influencers" who seemingly had nothing to say when it collapsed?
365  Economy / Economics / Re: Refusal from USD - where are the topics ? on: April 21, 2023, 08:37:53 PM
What do you call an alternative? YUAN? Are you seriously ? Do you really not understand why China is doing this? More precisely, why does he manipulate not very smart "friends"? For the fight against the dollar? On which does China's economy and industry depend? Are you seriously ??  Grin
I’ll tell you: for another half a year, or maybe more, when the screeching “BRICS is abandoning the dollar and switching to local currencies” and “More countries are joining the BRICS” just started to rise actively, I then wrote - there will be no local currencies. There will be YUAN!!! And there will be no dollar in the gold reserves of other countries! This is China's goal. The export of inflation will concentrate the movement of the dollar on itself as much as possible. And this is done precisely through the "unification of the countries" of the BRICS. All will trade within the BRICS only for RMB. No one will be able to sell their products to the Western world for hard currency. And China, having bought it for its yuan, will sell it to the West for DOLLARS, which it will keep for itself, in order to buy technology, equipment and everything that allows China to be the "second economy in the world" in the West.

I hope now you will begin to understand what this whole "China game with idiot friends" is all about? Smiley

China tried this strategy in Africa, trying to garner international relationships and force countries to form dependence on them giving them leverage. Many Chinese companies were doing business in Africa in the 90's and early 2000's but the partnerships never really came to fruition. Yuan is even worse than USD so any country emptying their reserves for Yuan will eventually find the same problems they had with USD.
366  Economy / Economics / Re: Why America Can Be The Biggest Economy In The World? on: April 20, 2023, 06:43:05 PM
Free market capitalism plus democracy gives you the worlds greatest economy. It isn't a difficult formula, we can look at Israel as an example:

Israel initially started off mostly as a socialist nation because of the government spending into social welfare stimulus. In just a few generations they took a socialist nation with high government spending of social welfare programs with low GDP into a country that participates in the global economy with advanced medical/military research sectors. Benjamin Netanyahu became PM in the 90's and adopted free market capitalism (also reduced social welfare), and Israel's GDP over the last two decades increased massively.
367  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think China is playing a double game? on: April 20, 2023, 06:37:28 PM
Does that mean China is utilizing this negative situation in the US on crypto to its favour or they are just testing the possibilities in order to regulate it. Do remember this is how China became the 2nd larget economy in just 20 years.

China's GDP rise was because of its manufacturing sector and low cost of labor. Turns out communism works out really well when millions of people are working at slave wages set by the government in order to grow the country's economy. They've dialed back on the poverty a bit and redistributed the wealth they've gained, but their growth won't be sustainable. As for their Bitcoin bans, the U.S. won't be far behind in attempting to introduce their own digitalized currencies while implementing Bitcoin regulations. Europe will be the same way.
368  Economy / Economics / Re: Bans on crypto now looks like a joke on: April 19, 2023, 09:57:56 PM
Banning crypto is no more effective on crypto itself, it's now more like a pure joke, I would still like to see the U.S embrace crypto more than China, just my own answer to my question, what about you?

This is a low bar because China has a soft "ban" on crypto currency. I have yet to see any strict enforcement or fines being levied against crypto users, but it's not as if China is welcoming of crypto. Anything that isn't overt government ban is more embracement of crypto than what China currently has.

The Biden administration are planning regulations on crypto and it would not surprise me if they introduce CBDC's after the 2024 election if he wins. They're already trying to roll out the regulatory framework that would allow for CBDC's to displace Bitcoin. Don't rely on the goverment to embrace crypto.
369  Economy / Economics / Re: Scarcity and scale of preference on: April 19, 2023, 07:59:15 PM
There are enough resources to sustain basic quality of human life. Birth rates are going down in most countries anyways so the unrestricted exponential population growth is going to level out at some point -- though for economic purposes, it's good to have a large working population that will be able to subsidize the older demographic (which will eventually become the largest demographic if birth rates don't keep up and life expectancy goes up).

Seems like doosmday hysteria when people suggest we'll run out of resources.
370  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: April 16, 2023, 06:48:31 AM
Latest opinion polls just confirm the trend. Trump is having the advantage, both for the Republican nomination, and for the 2024 POTUS election. The poll from Economist/YouGov puts him ahead of Biden by 1% (44% vs 43%). Now this may look like a narrow lead, but remember that Trump actually trailed popular vote by 3% in the 2016 POTUS election which he won. So a 1% lead would translate to a landslide win at the electoral college. And Ron DeSants continues to lose support. None of the polls in any of the states have him ahead (or even close to) of Donald Trump. 

I think Trump is doing a great job in terms of advertising/marketing.

You hear more about him than the actual current president of the United States, and he continues to make headlines all around the world.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the next election.

That advertising is to his detriment, though. It's why he lost the 2020 election despite his opponent campaigning from his basement.

The core Biden campaign strategy was to let Trump enjoy his media fame because it would cost him with suburban white women voters. There's a voting shift in the U.S., seemingly, where the "wine moms" can't help but vote democrat which is giving them the margin of victory in contested races.

Trump will win the Republican primary and will probably do so in a landslide. Ron DeSantis would perform better in a general election and for that reason, the Biden administration would much rather have Trump to face.

Even against someone as unlikeable as Hillary Clinton, Trump won by <100k votes scattered among some swing states. He doesn't perform well in the general even though Trump himself thinks he's good at marketing.
371  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Bitcoin is Speculation & Gambling" - Warren Buffett Critisize on: April 16, 2023, 05:43:37 AM
...

Modern currency is just a proxy for military power + natural resources. USD/Yuan/Euro are the strongest currencies because each region controls the worlds resources and dominate the geopolitical sphere. Even Russia can have a strong currency solely backed by energy exports even though every other sector of the economy has receded post war.

Warren Buffet has made his money through the speculative stock market, so I find the irony palpable. If he considers Bitcoin to be gambling, then his fortune made via the stock market must follow the same principle because the stock market is a zero sum game.
372  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is money ruling the world? on: April 16, 2023, 05:36:26 AM
Currently my country government has turn humans to museum, moving without no direction, helpless and monuments because for over 3 months now the government has seized to release money in circulation, banks refused to fix money in ATM's, no canter payment.
Everyone is helpless, no money no good food, no transportation, no job, no love, no smiles, no good health.

Understand that humans are fallible which is why trusting them in powerful positions to control major pillars of society will ultimately end in failure. I suppose that's why we're all Bitcoiners to begin with -- many of us don't have faith in the institutions as other people do.

Don't rely on government to fix things, no less economic matters. Humans are inherently selfish and act within self interest.
373  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Long-Term Impact of the Pandemic on Mental Health in 2023 on: April 15, 2023, 10:34:41 PM
https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/news-events/research-update/deaths-involving-alcohol-increased-during-covid-19-pandemic

The alcoholism increase wasn't just insignificant, a near 25% increase in alcohol related deaths.

The statistics for anxiety/depression might be under reported if people don't end up getting treatment for it. Children had documented increases in depression/suicide attempts. The adults just coped with it by drowning themselves in alcohol. Three years later and people still haven't recovered.
374  Economy / Economics / Re: Automating your savings will help you save more on: April 15, 2023, 06:58:55 AM
What do I mean by automatic saving? Automatic savings is a type of personal savings system in which the plan contributor automatically deposits a fixed amount of funds at specified intervals into their account. The typical structure of this type is an automatic transfer from an individual's bank account into a savings or investment account.

I would suggest anyone who takes automatic deductions from their income and put it into a savings account look into transferring those funds into an investment account unless you need short term liquidity. If you're holding fiat currency, then note any and all funds that remain stagnant and outside of investment accounts are losing purchasing power every day that it sits there.

If you keep those funds around for 20-30 years, you will have lost minimum 2% year over year.

You don't necessarily need to automate this process unless you're having budget problems, though. Seems to me it'd make more sense to set aside funds month by month depending on what your expenses are for that period.
375  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Being Russia and Russian now on: April 14, 2023, 09:58:52 PM
The western sanctions will have a slow and graduate impact over the Russian economy. The negative impact will probably be higher in the upcoming years. Russia still has currency reserves, so the budget deficit can be covered. I wonder what will happen, after Russia consumes all the currency reserves and the budget deficit increases? Where will the Russian government find money to cover the budget deficit? Increasing taxes? Seeking a foreign loan from China, India or Saudi Arabia? Cutting government costs(which is close to impossible right now)?
Anyway, the life of the "average Ivan" in Russia won't change that much in 2023.
A year ago, Biden told everyone that the Russian economy had already been torn to shreds twice. Then the rhetoric changed that sanctions are working very slowly and the most terrible consequences will be sometime in the future. And then gradually comes the epiphany that right now the annual inflation in Russia is 3.5%, which is less than in the US and much less than in Europe. But you wait and believe, sometime in the future, the sanctions will definitely work as they should. Grin

Western sanctions remind me of the prohibitions of our RosKomNadzor, according to which this forum is not accessible from Russia. I am from Russia and I am here.

Overly aggressive sanctions backfire, the west was too incompetent to realize that.

If the Biden administration had any remaining brain power left, they would've flooded the market with every hydrocarbon energy source imaginable in order to undercut Russian energy exports. They didn't do this, but instead increased reliance on green energy which doesn't even meet the energy demands of the west. Europe took this approach as well. And all of this made Russian oil more valuable.

Ironically enough, USD was weakened over the past two years. Somehow, Americans are shocked to learn that sanctions are mutual destruction.
376  Economy / Economics / Re: Age as a factor depreciating some people of their dreams on: April 14, 2023, 08:53:40 PM
...

Unfortunately the retirement age is going to rise as the aging population live longer and run out of funds because they did not save/invest enough. Hardly any of these workers are "living their dreams," only working so they can afford to live.

The mistake I see people making is they start investing too late. Investing when you're young is crucial because they grow over 30-40 years ensure that you'll at least have something to retire on. It isn't ever too late to invest, I just think people should be cautious about starting too late and not having enough when you cash out.

377  Economy / Economics / Re: G20 Meet - Always consider Crypto as problem to the monetary world. New update on: April 14, 2023, 08:25:36 PM
It wouldn't make sense to have global regulatory framework when each country views crypto differently. Even the U.S. and Europe are a bit hesitant on how far they should take regulations because they see crypto as an opportunity for tax revenue.

Some of the countries that are still developing (India and China) probably see it more prudent to regulate crypto more stringently because they need their currency to gain more global competitiveness. Bitcoin would be a direct competitor.
378  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: April 13, 2023, 09:29:49 PM
2. if a slot machine does not hit in 7-10 spins, consider trying a different machine. this can help you avoid getting stuck on a losing streak and losing more money.

This is one of those old gambling fallacies that constantly get circulated. Granted the game is fair, the chance of hitting a win is equal if you stay there for 10 spins or for 100 spins. Going to a new machine doesn't change that. With your advice, a gambler's chance of hitting on the 11th spin is equal to that of hitting on the first spin on a new machine. What's the point?

RTP guarantees a certain payout over time. The immediate return is always unknown so there isn't a point in trying to "time" the machine's win.
379  Economy / Economics / Re: James Zhong captured for $3.4 billion worth stolen bitcoin- USA cracks hesit on: April 13, 2023, 09:06:23 PM
Federal officials closed Silk Road a year later on criminal grounds and seized computers that held its transaction records. The records didn’t reveal Mr. Zhong’s caper at first. Authorities hadn’t yet mastered how to track people and groups hidden behind blockchain wallet addresses, the series of letters and numbers used to anonymously send and receive cryptocurrency. One elemental feature of the system was the privacy it gave users.

Mr. Zhong moved the stolen bitcoins from one account to another for eight years to cover his tracks. By late 2021, the red-hot crypto market had raised the value of his trove to $3.4 billion. He still lived in a modest house in Athens, Ga., and dressed in shorts and T-shirts. He also had a lake-house getaway in Gainesville, Ga., a Lamborghini sports car and a $150,000 Tesla.

In November 2021, federal agents surprised Mr. Zhong with a search warrant and found the digital keys to his crypto fortune hidden in a basement floor safe and a popcorn tin in the bathroom. Mr. Zhong, who pleaded guilty to wire fraud, is scheduled to be sentenced Friday in New York federal court, where prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence of less than two years.

Mr. Zhong’s case is one of the highest-profile examples of how federal authorities have pierced the veil of blockchain transactions. Private and government investigators can now identify wallet addresses associated with terrorists, drug traffickers, money launderers and cybercriminals, all of which were supposed to be anonymous.

Law-enforcement agencies, working with cryptocurrency exchanges and blockchain-analytics companies, have compiled data gleaned from earlier investigations, including the Silk Road case, to map the flow of cryptocurrency transactions across criminal networks worldwide. In the past two years, the U.S. has seized more than $10 billion worth of digital currency through successful prosecutions, according to the Internal Revenue Service—in essence, by following the money. Instead of subpoenas to banks or other financial institutions, investigators can look to the blockchain for an instant snapshot of the money trail.

......continue reading

So this is a matter of theft and tax fraud of many millions of dollars, yet the prosecutors are only pursuing charges for wire fraud and asking for 2 years?

Wonder if the guy's lawyer negotiated the time down in exchange for something valuable, whether it be information or the crypto funds he stole. Usually the feds will tack on charges and take you to trial because they have a 95% conviction rate to begin with so overcharging the defendant with crimes isn't too problematic. Certainly forces the defendant to take a plea deal.
380  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Over 100 More Classified Docs Appear Online: US Secrets 'From Ukraine... on: April 13, 2023, 07:46:56 PM
https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/04/13/ukraine-leak-massachusetts-source

The leaker could possibly be a 21 year old zoomer, the feds raided him: https://twitter.com/EliNBCBoston/status/1646571067111079936

Only 21 and ruining his life so early. We should ask him if it was worth it 10 years later. Some people are awfully stubborn.

Could've been an intentional leak by bad actors to shift the narrative. But given law enforcement's quick investigation, they must find the content really damaging.

They found this guy in less than a week. The Dobbs leaker is still out there, though
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