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201
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is this the new Bitcoin phrase: "Sorry we got hacked, your money is gone"
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on: August 05, 2011, 05:01:50 AM
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Please define "every site". It's only been a small number.
Important sites. True not all sites, and not all important sites. But in general, it seems to me that if you want to steal the funds, you just say that phrase and everyone accepts it, that's ridiculous. Please definite "Important sites". Besides Mt. Gox I don't know of any "hacking". The polish exchange Bitomat and have a look at mybitcoin.com |
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204
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Economy / Speculation / Stock market crash - 5 % overall
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on: August 04, 2011, 08:06:05 PM
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The big indices in US are down around 5 % at closing. What kind of impact do you guys think this have on the bitcoin economy (if we think that the turmoil continues)?
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205
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Total hashrate falls considerably
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on: August 04, 2011, 07:43:50 PM
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Can you imagine being a person who made a large investment making the assumption that
BTC would be around 15-20? In my opinion that was truly a poor decision. I would have done
that math based on a price of 5-7 and that would still have been pushing it a bit far with pricing.
Plus I work for an ISP and do not have to pay for electricity and cooling in the data center (thank
you very much kind owner).
I put about 2000 dollars into hardware that gets me about 2450 mh/s. And some of that money
was buying higher quality parts to replace an aging computer at home once I am done with mining.
Two computers were bought used for 400 each that contains two 5830s that I have overclocked
ridiculously to get 620 mh/s out of them per box. The other nicer setup contains 2 reference 6950s
and 1 used 5850 doing 1240 mh/s. All over clocked to the nuts.
Since June, about the 12th I was starting to get setup with the first box. I realized this could make some
money with the high BTC price and still somewhat low difficulty level. I quickly found a person in my state
getting out of bitcoin mining and bought two of his rigs used. The sooner the boxes were running for me
the better. Delaying was money lost obviously.
So.. here I am today and have made about 1050 dollars and some change (BTC). I have pretty much paid
off my new rig that will replace the one at home if I sell the rest of my BTC. The other two machines have
not even started being paid off yet. Naturally I could sell them for about 400 each and break even but I
will still plug along due to no elect/cooling costs.
BUT.. if I had to pay for elect/cooling this quickly makes less and less sense to do. My state's elect cost
at home is higher on average, it is pretty darn hot out right now so cooling would be nonstop, and watching
over these 3 boxes takes more effort then 40+ freebsd servers (go figure).
So to get back on topic of my first paragraph.. the people who made large investments and have large bills
to pay must be crapping their pants. The ROI just keeps getting further and further away and difficulty will
not fall that much in my opinion. So what you make back in more BTC will probably be eroded by a falling
price for the rest of the year (my opinion).
Nice conclusion. +1 |
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207
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Total hashrate falls considerably
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on: August 04, 2011, 07:23:55 PM
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And difficulty factor growth slows down. Seems that people are hanging up their rigs.
Even more pressure on the price then when the big rig investors get more coins to sell, they will probably not hoard any before they have made back their initial investment. |
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208
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Short sell bitcoins
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on: August 04, 2011, 06:27:51 PM
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If I want to short sell Bitcoins, is there any service that provides this? It shouldn't be something hard to get to work. The first exchange that starts with this will get a lot of new traders.
For example miners that want to take profits at specific levels. Because they know that they are going to create the coins in the end.
I would like to sell all the coins I will be making by mining in the next 100 days on this levels. But I can't.
What would you use as collateral? Afterall if someone is going to extend you credit so that you can short-sell, they will need collateral that they can margin-call against, won't they? How far down do you think bitcoins will go in the next 100 days? Would you be willing to split the difference, that is, for example if you think it will go down 10%, settle for only realising half that: 5%? Do you have enough collateral, such as bitcoins you have already mined, to secure against margin calls? How much collateral would that actually take -MarkM- Good questions. The normal way this work is that I have collateral in the exchanges in USD or other fiat currency, this is what I believe would and should happen at the exchanges if they implement this. If I want to short 1000 bitcoins I should have an equal amount of that in USD (at the exchange price) at the time I am borrowing the coins. That gives the exchange 100 % margin until they have to close my position. Of course they and the speculator can do this with leverage, but the math is very similar to going long with borrowed money. |
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210
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Short sell bitcoins
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on: August 04, 2011, 05:59:43 PM
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First, there must be someone willing to rent-out their Bitcoin...
Yeah, nobody is willing to do that.
I'm willing to pay 10 % interest on the loan, that is really good numbers for sometihng that has has zero % interest. I would probably just lend you an amount of Bitcoins if I could trust you. Exactly, that's why we need a exchange to do this. Strange that no one has already implemented this. |
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211
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Short selling
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on: August 04, 2011, 05:54:33 PM
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Why do you need short selling? You can buy bitcoins when they are low, and when the price is high, you can go short. The price is so volatile you don't really need short selling as an entry point. Would be nice to hear some more from the trading experts ;-)
Short selling gives you the opportunity to make money as you describe it BUT in both ways, double the profit.  If anyone has any idea of how I could short sell bitcoins, tell me. I am willing to pay a 10 % interest, calculated per year and I have the option to close the loan sooner on the bitcoins that I borrow. Thats really good for something that gives zero % interest. For example I loan the bitcoins for 3 months (3/12) x 10 % = the interest I will pay. |
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212
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Short sell bitcoins
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on: August 04, 2011, 05:48:49 PM
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First, there must be someone willing to rent-out their Bitcoin...
Yeah, nobody is willing to do that.
I'm willing to pay 10 % interest on the loan, that is really good numbers for sometihng that has zero % interest. |
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213
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Short selling
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on: August 04, 2011, 05:33:14 PM
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Yes, most exchanges are going to have this feature in the near future, including margin accounts, shorts & options. Baby steps, security first.
Maybe you are right. My feeling is that this is not a high priority right now. But I am sure that it will be popular, specially for the miners that are heavily invested. |
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215
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Short selling
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on: August 04, 2011, 05:03:38 PM
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I'm asking the bitcoin community and the exchanges: Is there any plans of implementing short selling of bitcoin in the (near) future? I would guess that if it will be possible and trustworthy, it will be at the exchanges.
The reason I am saying this is because I think there is a demand for it. From miners that want to take profit at specific levels to minimize risk and from speculators. The exchange that will implement this will get many new traders.
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216
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Economy / Speculation / Short sell bitcoins
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on: August 04, 2011, 04:53:36 PM
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If I want to short sell Bitcoins, is there any service that provides this? It shouldn't be something hard to get to work. The first exchange that starts with this will get a lot of new traders.
For example miners that want to take profits at specific levels. Because they know that they are going to create the coins in the end.
I would like to sell all the coins I will be making by mining in the next 100 days on this levels. But I can't.
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217
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Speculation - Mybitcoin owner tried to short sell bitcoins
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on: August 04, 2011, 01:29:12 PM
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One reason that I can see as a possibility is that the owner of Mybitcoin tried to sell short other peoples bitcoins on the market, so he could later on buy them back cheaper, and making a profit. Because they knew that short selling is pretty much impossible, but they had the opportunity for doing this (a market advantage).
Maybe it all went wrong (the short trade), maybe they felt that why not take all the money and got greedy.
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219
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin Show on OnlyOneTV.com
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on: August 04, 2011, 01:20:16 PM
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Bruce, thanks for the show. I've only watched the first 10 mins so far and its obvious your a real human being. I admire your humility and you obviously have courage beyond words to take this issue to air in view of how much you (and your family and friends) have been affected by this. I'm glad this hasnt dampened your enthusiasm for bitcoin however. Your analogy of the wild west is a good one. I need to get back to the rest of the show...just felt I should stop & offer a few kind words first. p.s. Your an asset to the bitcoin community & your show is geting better and better  +1 |
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220
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is the rapid drop in bitcoin value because there are more miners than buyers?
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on: August 04, 2011, 01:15:00 PM
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the number of miners has nothing to do with it.
we mine 300 coins an hour, doesnt matter if their are 10 of us or 10,000
it was bad news, happens to every stock, commodity on bad news.
Of course the number of miners have everything to do with it, that shows that many miners have invested heavily in rigs (look at the Hash levels). Most of these investors came in in May and June (as my self), these investors will want to make their money back, only way of doing so is to have USD / fiat currency buyers. The more USD or direct buyers at the exchanges, the more they will invest in the rigs, and the more pressure to make that money back. Its a classic negative spiral for the direct buyer. They will lose in most cases if they keep feeding and paying the profits of the miners. What should happen is that the miner should think that he wants to invest directly in the Bitcoin economy. He will do that when the prices at the exchanges are much lower than today. |
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