Bitcoin Forum
March 28, 2024, 11:47:50 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 26.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 »
441  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks on: July 16, 2014, 06:01:09 AM
More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.
442  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks on: July 16, 2014, 05:59:20 AM
Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

Ah I see what you said. Probably the $650 price could be a floor for the next "bubble", but this "bubble" has only 1-2 weeks to occur then. I don't see any "panic buying" like it was during the previous bubbles.

Right.  So we'd be stuck in a tiny range.  That's highly improbable for Bitcoin.  So this chart's interpretation is suspect.
443  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks on: July 16, 2014, 05:55:02 AM
What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

My chart shows time between peaks, like the OP's guess.
Not the "establishing floor", just time between peaks.

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

444  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks on: July 16, 2014, 05:48:37 AM
1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.


The first 2 peaks on my chart are below $32 - the peak of 2011.

It doesn't matter where we should have a peak. The time for this "bubble" is over. Gonna crash hard.

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2014, 05:43:52 AM
Bitcoin is backed by greed, that makes people waste energy for a no-gain process.

Increased hashrate as a security measure is a joke. You only have to compromise the security of 2 pools to compromise the bitcoin network, no matter the hashrate of these pools.

Not a real issue.  If it happens, the blockchain will be forked to a pre-tamper point and everyone will keep their Bitcoins.
446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2014, 05:41:12 AM
Bitcoin is a commodity, not a security.  When you hold it, you have it, just like gold or wheat or a eurodollar swap.

Yes.  In fact, all commodities are backed by energy.  Physical commodities can be mined or created with expenditure of energy.  So can Bitcoin.
447  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks on: July 16, 2014, 05:38:29 AM
Here is my chart about this:



1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.
448  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2014, 05:26:39 AM
Hey look, it's one of those "not backed by anything" guys again. Grab the pitchforks!  Wink
I am not saying that; that is just the way the SEC presumably sees it.


Bitcoin is backed by energy.  Its Proof of Work requirement is essentially a proof of expenditure of energy.  You cannot spend a unit of energy more than once.  You can spend it on mining Bitcoin, mining another PoW coin, or something else like running your household.  Energy is a commodity that has a price, and it cannot be counterfeited.

Now Proof of Stake coins... that's another topic.  There's nothing backing those.  You can hold an infinite number of different PoS coins.  Inflation through diversification into new PoS coins will ultimately destroy purely PoS coins.

449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is wobber right? on: July 16, 2014, 02:28:16 AM
I cannot believe the amount of Risto ball gurgling that takes place in this sub-forum. Jelly much?

He's called every market movement within days and has basically never been wrong about bitcoin in his life.

Yes he has and he has been wrong many many times.

Hey Matt.  Welcome back!  Are you long, short, or flat now?
450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Whats taking so long? on: July 15, 2014, 06:42:35 PM
Don't worry.  I've got considerable fiat coming available on August 25th.  (Really.)  So we're guaranteed to bubble before that date just so I can't buy more at a good price.
451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Tradingview 2014 bubble forecasters on: July 15, 2014, 06:02:31 PM
Meanwhile the reality is that for about 2 months now I think, purchases at SecondMarket have been historically highly lackluster https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

And they will probably continue to be lackluster, until the bubble suddely is a fact and then everybody and their mother wants in. That's how bubbles work.

Sure, as far as retail/casual investors go. But smart money is often buying in during low volume/lull times. And I would think SM is one of the places for smart money (that doesn't want to sit money on shady exchanges or buy with slippage) to turn to.

When markets are moving this slow, smart money has time to accumulate in the least visible manner.  This means contracts with miners and slow accumulation on exchanges.  When the next bubble hits, the dumb money will find out the hard way that supply of coins will be nonexistent.  Smart money will already have bought anything available at reasonable prices.  Dumb money will be forced to sit on the sidelines or buy in at unreasonable prices.
452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 08:02:17 PM
What does monkey use as a fitness function?  Pure net worth?  Do you risk-adjust, or otherwise look to minimize dips in capital?

monkey only thinks about estimating price trajectory.  any position sizing, hedging, &c is all on me.  i personally try to follow the dynamic leverage-space model (generalized kelly sizing) but when i'm trading purely my own book, i get a bit risky; i have goals which can best be characterized as insane.

Right.  Monkey needs feedback telling him when he's doing best so the best algorithm can be selected.  I'm asking how you look at the equity curve and make the comparison of what's better.  The best would obviously be a smooth straight line upward as time passes.  The worst would be constant drops to $0 with recovery, where he happens to be at an all time high in equity right now.  I wouldn't equate the latter with a good system even though it's at an all time high of equity right now.


453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 07:12:11 PM


 Shocked

On 7/14/2014, at 3:11:25pm EDT, ChartBuddy became self-aware...
454  Economy / Speculation / Re: oh no another fake pump. on: July 14, 2014, 06:59:49 PM
Absolutely not.  The speculation sub-forum should consist of exactly one thread.  Anything else is strictly off-topic anyhow.
 Roll Eyes
455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 06:00:40 PM
I've been probing the monkey about longer term prospects.  Monkey seems to be bifurcating his analysis on the weekly/monthly scales, mixing two principal scenarios, both bullish:
1) Gradual (linear) rise for 2 months, plateau for a month or so, and then 2 months of rocketship, past 6k, mild bear market early 2015 but possibly protracted.
2) Increasing rate of climb (parabolic) from August into September, short, sharp ramp in September, past 3k, mild bear until late November or early December.

However, on the daily chart he continues to flip-flop.  His worst case scenario is found on the daily chart:  
1) A 1 week linear decline followed by a 1 week parabolic decline to 444, culminating in a strong bull market in August.  
2) Alternatively, the bullish scenario is continued wobble, indeterminate duration, ending in a weekly/monthly (1) track.

If I try to combine the daily with the long-term forecasts, he seems to be telling me that a sharp draw-down now would end in a 3k+ September, while a drawn-out wobble now would end in a 6k+ November.

What does monkey use as a fitness function?  Pure net worth?  Do you risk-adjust, or otherwise look to minimize dips in capital?
456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 06:14:31 AM
If it doesn't does that send you back to the drawing board? What kind of statistical confidence do you have in making a bullish call based on an average?

If it doesn't, then it doesn't.  This trend line isn't an average.  It's an exponential line connecting high volume areas of historical support.  It increases approximately 10-fold per year.  Bubbles in Bitcoin can be seen by watching for movements significantly above this line, which eventually crash back to the line.

457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 05:35:06 AM
We're just trying to save your shop, Shroom.

https://twitter.com/ShroomsKit/status/322610842933805056
Quote
Well, as you may have noticed Bitcoin went down quite a bit! I still have faith though. And our shop continues just like before!

458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2014, 04:57:51 AM
On 7-10 during the 9am EDT hour the long term exponential trend line was at 613.70.  We hit 5.80 below this trend line and were pushed up with higher volume within a few hours.  The buyers seem to come in when they see us below the line.

Right now this trend line is at 628.37.  We hit 623.43, which is 4.94 below the trend line.  I expect the buyers to come in and bring us back over the trend line within the next few hours.
459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 13, 2014, 05:48:27 PM
We bounced right off the ever-increasing exponential trend line at 626.50.  In about 8 hours that trend line will be at 630.  We've shown strength every time we hit it, with buyers coming in on large volume to take price back above the line.  If this continues, we have no choice but to move up over the next couple days.
460  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is unfair to the non tech-savvy on: July 12, 2014, 06:19:13 PM
Most of this world doesn't even know what "encrypted wallet" or "dropbox" is.  Most of this world sees no problem surfing to random porn sites on the same computer where they install all their Bitcoin apps.  Most of this world ignores error messages from their computer, such as "your antivirus has expired".

Security for a real wallet involves keeping it out of others' hands.  Security for a digital wallet is completely different.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!